racing post trophy

[guskennedy]

Bulwark, you’re in serious danger of getting carried away here. Authorized is a very promising horse who won in good style and a decent, though not outstanding, time yesterday. On form and time he’s the equivalent of Admiralofthefleet and a few pounds behind the principals in the Dewhurst. To say he’d be "certain to win the Derby in any normal season" is ludicrous. <br>

(Edited by guskennedy at 7:28 pm on Oct. 22, 2006)

[Bulwark]

I am but im just trying to emphasise what I have taken from yesterdays race as I think it is one of the most important races for next year.

I agree that Authorizeds form falls below that of the Dewhurst, but isnt that the same with the dewhurst and RPT every year (even though the RPT was slow it was in a quagmire). Yet 4 out of the past 5 RPT winners have went on to score at epsom. I have always generally been of the opinion that the Dewhurst is much more of a Guineas trial than a derby trial(Sir Percy done Dewhurst/Derby, but in my opinion that was a poor derby, but straight after last years RPT i said that I couldnt see either of the first 2 winning at epsom). This years Dewhurst winner Teofilo interests me for the derby but thats just because of the sort of horse he is, butnothing else in the Dewhurst does.<br>Without Teofilo, what was there in the Dewhurst, HRE who almost definitely wont see out a Derby trip, Haatef (a danzig) is highly unlikely to, Vital Equine almost definitely wont see out a derby trip, Rallying Cry almost definitely wont. The only other group1 (ish) horse in the race who might see out the derby trip is Strategic Prince but I don think he’ll even go close to authorized or Teofilo in the last two furlongs at epsom. Out of the rest of the Dewhurst field there are hosres like Hes a Decoy who is likely to get 1m4f but looks nowhere near the class of Teofilo or Authorized.

I am not attempting to hype this horse up, and I’m definitely not saying he’s the best two year old ive seen this year, but out of the derby types ive seen this year, Teofilo and Authorized are head and shoulders above everything else ive seen. I am a big fan of looking for value for the derby every winter but really I dont think that will be the case this year as the chances of anything thats been out so far improving beyond one or both of these horses over the winter is very slim, and the chances of a horse weve not yet seen winning the derby are almost zero.

Also, i never said he would be certain to win a derby in a normal year, i said that in a normal year you would have to say he "looks certain" to win, what I probably said was "looks almost certain" to avoid irritating, my apologies.

At the end of the day everyone will always back the horse that they like for the derby and its hard to sway people, and I would never discourage anyone from backing a horse that they like for a race, but in my opinion its not often you get two horses like this coming through, and all im saying is that if these two stay fit then everything else faces a stiff task (for the derby, at least, i wouldnt back either for the guineas).  

Hope thsi clears up what I meant Gus.:)

[jackane24]

Authorised is a horse that ran in a strong race on his debut. I backed him that day based on the breeding and trainer. I didn’t back him yesterday though.

But I would delay the hype until mid-May Bulwark. A lot can happen over the winter. A O’B has got many good looking 2yos. Red Rock Canyon is a good horse, and both A O’B and Heffernan said that he just doesn’t show his quality on the racecourse.

Macarthur – a full bro to Motivator<br>Anton Chekhov – my current pick for the Derby.<br>Duke of Marmalade<br>Eagle Mountain<br>Admiralofthefleet<br>Able Seaman<br>Bonifacio

And there are loads more.

P.s. Kinane’s ride on Eagle Mountain was not the best

[Smithy]

Quote: from The Market Man on 1:37 am on Oct. 22, 2006[br]

Quote: from Bulwark on 1:27 am on Oct. 22, 2006[br]I knew i’d seen them colours on one of nosedas, was thinking it was proclamation, he ran in dark green aswell (now that i think of it, if i remember it was dark green and black), i’d forgot all about araafa. Cheers, fingers crossed all three stay with PCH.

<br>Proclamation ran in Princess Haya’s of Jordans colours which are dark green and black.

http://www.teamtalk.com/Images/35555.jpg<br>

Proclamation only ran in Princess Haya’s colours twice – the Sheikh bought him after he won the Jersey Stakes.

[Gareth Flynn]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Godolphin get Authorized though.

They’ll have to change their policy on the progeny of Coolmore sires if they do.

[clivex]

Kinanes ride was another poor one jackane but I cant see EM reversing form with A. Would also have expected AOB to have sent across more or less his best staying prospect for this race too

Really impressed with Authorised. One of those races where its the reviewing that emphasises the quality

Teofilio is a big big horse. If he grows much more you will wonder whether Epsom would really suit

[Anonymous]

AOB has said that Eagle Mountain couldn’t stride out on the heavy ground, imo a view supported by the replay.<br> Bearing in mind the above; the modest time, (Only marginally better than the Horris Hill); and the proximity of some fairly ordinary horses, Authorised still has much to prove between now and next June. 

[Bulwark]

Smithy

<br> <br>Classic Winner            <br>——————————————————————————–

<br>——————————————————————————–<br>Quote: from The Market Man on 1:37 am on Oct. 22, 2006

<br>——————————————————————————–<br>Quote: from Bulwark on 1:27 am on Oct. 22, 2006<br>I knew i’d seen them colours on one of nosedas, was thinking it was proclamation, he ran in dark green aswell (now that i think of it, if i remember it was dark green and black), i’d forgot all about araafa. Cheers, fingers crossed all three stay with PCH.<br>——————————————————————————–

<br>Proclamation ran in Princess Haya’s of Jordans colours which are dark green and black.

http://www.teamtalk.com/Images/35555.jpg

——————————————————————————–

Proclamation only ran in Princess Haya’s colours twice – the Sheikh bought him after he won the Jersey Stakes.

I can distinctly remember Poclamation with kinane on board passing soviet song holding off soviet song in the Sussex last year in Dark Green and Black which came after the jersey, im not sure about the Sprint cup though as I bet on Goodricke that day who was in the Sheikh Mohammed colours, im pretty sure they bought Proclamation, Imperial stride and Silcas Sister all about the same time at about the end of august last year.

jackane24 Posted on 12:40 pm on Oct. 22, 2006 <br>Authorised is a horse that ran in a strong race on his debut. I backed him that day based on the breeding and trainer. I didn’t back him yesterday though.

But I would delay the hype until mid-May Bulwark. A lot can happen over the winter. A O’B has got many good looking 2yos. Red Rock Canyon is a good horse, and both A O’B and Heffernan said that he just doesn’t show his quality on the racecourse.

Macarthur – a full bro to Motivator <br>Anton Chekhov – my current pick for the Derby. <br>Duke of Marmalade <br>Eagle Mountain <br>Admiralofthefleet <br>Able Seaman <br>Bonifacio

And there are loads more.

P.s. Kinane’s ride on Eagle Mountain was not the best  

I used to follow o’brien with a passion and I soon learnt that he has no shortage of nicely bred sorts, however one thing I realised after a while is that if o’brien has a horse ready to run it will run. He trains for a stud and victory is the best advertisement. So when O’brien has an unraced 3yo (which a few of those will be), it is quite alarming. When you compare his tactics with the last few years, it is quite worrying that HRE has been so heavily campaigned this year and there seems to be an absence of anything else with serious group1 class, Eagle mountain looks to be about the same level as dylan thomas was last year but he too has had his fair share of races. Anton chekhov looks like a horse who should improve 2-3 but I think his debut looks very over rated (and it is worrying that the racing post appear to have based their high race ratings around a green desert colt, which I dont rate as good yardstick, regardless of who he finished behind previously), it is more worrying, in terms of a derby bid, that he has not challenged any of the listed/ low group races since his maiden, and that his eventual 2yo target appears to be a maiden at navan. I have a healthy respect for O’brien and im not writing him off altogether but I think from what hes brought out this year that next year doesnt look to be a strong year for him, with his 3yo+ horses. Obviously if you rate him, bet on him, like i’ve said i’ll not try to talk anyone out of a bet. Also, wheras EM looked to have trouble in running A did not exactly have a troble free path himself and A was never going to be caught once he set sail for home he quickened very nicely in thick mud, in a style which no one else could cope with, EM actually looked to have 3rd place at one point but looked to me to fade sllightly for a stride or two (about 100 yards or so out), which looked to me like it actually cost him 3rd place.

Gareth Flynn Posted on 1:00 pm on Oct. 22, 2006

——————————————————————————–<br>I wouldn’t be surprised if Godolphin get Authorized though.<br>——————————————————————————–

They’ll have to change their policy on the progeny of Coolmore sires if they do.

Godolphin have a 3yo Galileo called Narvik, who was owned by sheikh mohammed and trained by Michael jarvis at two, also,arguably his best horse of the past few years has been Shamardal. He also has loads of danehills. I always hear about the no coolmore rule, but I never actually see it enforced.

clivex Posted on 1:12 pm on Oct. 22, 2006 <br>Kinanes ride was another poor one jackane but I cant see EM reversing form with A. Would also have expected AOB to have sent across more or less his best staying prospect for this race too

Really impressed with Authorised. One of those races where its the reviewing that emphasises the quality

Teofilio is a big big horse. If he grows much more you will wonder whether Epsom would really suit

Good point, well presented Clivex:)

<br>PS. Its good to see a debate is emerging, I find these debates are a good way of reviewing what has went on over what has been a busy couple of months (in terms of prospective horses for next year) and I find that it often causes me to think of certain horses/performances from a perspective which I havent already considered.

[Bulwark]

Cutting off nose to spite face is the statement which springs to mind, if he had have got a load of johannesburgs this season he could be sat laughing at o’brien and magnier etc who currently look to have done a fortune on Rock of Gibraltars not so impressive first crop (saying that Bin Suroor would probably have kept them in a warm dubai before bringing them back to a dank cold newmarket, locked them away for a crucial few months and then trained them to death in the second half of the season):o

[guskennedy]

Quote: from Bulwark on 10:52 am on Oct. 22, 2006[br]the chances of anything thats been out so far improving beyond one or both of these horses over the winter is very slim, and the chances of a horse weve not yet seen winning the derby are almost zero.

There’s a Racing Post Trophy winner, a Champion two-year-old and an ante-post Derby favourite every year but the Derby winner isn’t always one of them. At this point in the preceding October I’d say that seventeen of the last twenty five Derby winners either had to find considerable improvement on their juvenile form to figure in the Derby or were not even "on the radar" as potential winners of the race. The other eight were Reference Point, Generous, Dr Devious, Benny The Dip, Sinndar, High Chaparral, Motivator and Sir Percy.

[cormack15]

Agree with Gus. The Stoute stable in particular is one where a Derby winner may well be munching his evening hay at this very moment, completely unaware that on the first Satuirday in June his name will be immortalised.

[Bulwark]

guskennedy Posted on 5:32 pm on Oct. 22, 2006

——————————————————————————–<br>Quote: from Bulwark on 10:52 am on Oct. 22, 2006<br>the chances of anything thats been out so far improving beyond one or both of these horses over the winter is very slim, and the chances of a horse weve not yet seen winning the derby are almost zero.<br>——————————————————————————–

There’s a Racing Post Trophy winner, a Champion two-year-old and an ante-post Derby favourite every year but the Derby winner isn’t always one of them. At this point in the preceding October I’d say that seventeen of the last twenty five Derby winners either had to find considerable improvement on their juvenile form to figure in the Derby or were not even "on the radar" as potential winners of the race. The other eight were Reference Point, Generous, Dr Devious, Benny The Dip, Sinndar, High Chaparral, Motivator and Sir Percy.

<br>I must disagree Gus, this statistic, which is interesting, has no actual significance in this instance really. Is it going to rain 2moro? I could say that it has only rained here 8 days out of the last 25, but if theres a black cloud outside then it is highly likely that it is going to rain!

This is exactly what the situation is with Authorized and Teofilo, it is a fact that Very few Galileos or montjeus even have any decent form as two year olds but yet they are emphatic as 3 yos. I cannot recollect ever seeing a Montjeu that didnt progress at 3, out of The big three (and the rest) of 2005, only motivator had any real form at 2 yet look at what happened in the big middle distance races of 2005.

Epsom derby – 1st Motivator (by montjeu), 2nd Walkinthepark (montjeu)

Irish derby – 1st Hurricane Run (by montjeu), 2nd Scorpion (Montjeu)

Grand Prix Du Paris- 1st Scorpion (montjeu)

St Leger – 1st Scorpion (montjeu)

Arc de Triomphe – 1st Hurricane Run(montjeu)

Also, motivator (montjeu) 2nd in both the eclipse and irish champ.

Bearing in mind that Walkinthe park, probably the quirkiest of the lot was injured in the irish derby and has never been the same since and that Motivator and Scorpion were ridden too prominently at a harsh clip in the arc, that isnt a bad record, for a bunch of horses with little or no 2yo form.

Then take galileos, he was unlucky that he had no real 2yo colts to speak of last year (heliostatic won a couple of races in ireland and that was about it really), he had no runners in any of the big 2yo races yet look at this years form, as the season has went on we have started seeing some really progressive performances.

King edward 1st Papal Bull (a montjeu maiden winner at 2), 2nd Red Rocks (Galileo), 3rd Sixties Icon (Galileo)

Grand Prix du Paris – Red Rocks (galileo) second to subsequent arc winner Rail link

St Leger – 1st Sixties Icon (Galileo) 2nd The last drop (Galileo) 3rd Red Rocks (Galileo)

It is clear as the light of day that every Montjeu and Galileo colt ive ever seen seems to improve from 2 to 3. And almost all seem to love middle distance races.

The only horse out of the ones ive mentioned who had form even comparable with A and T is Motivator, I would say that Motivator and Authorized are at about the exact same level at this stage. Teofilo on the other hand, well he doesnt even bear thinking about, not only does he have 2yo form but hes an unbeaten double grp1 winner and champion 2yo at 7f (not even at a mile, which he would find easier), and hes not even fully developed yet. Not only that but all these 7f races have just been opportunities to build his turn of foot for next year.

We’re not exactly talking Sir percy or Palace episode here, these two horses represent pure class and I reckon that the only thing that will stop them winning the derby is injury.

I think its absolutely ludicrous to say that one of these 2 horses winning the Derby is not almost certain.

As for stoute, hes only picked up two week group1s this year that I can think of, a lockinge (which was far from vintage) and a York International (which again was abismal). Further more ive not seen him bring out one 2yo yet, that is anywhere near the class of this pair and its almost certain that he wont.<br>

[Bulwark]

To win a decent derby, authorized probably only needs to improve about 10lbs which will be easy enough, bearing in mind:<br>1. He’ll fill out for going out to winter

2. Almost all montjeus hit their best at middle distances

3. Hes only ever had 2 races.

For Teofilo to win a decent derby, all he really needs to do is see out the trip he’s bred for.

In reality though, we’ve probably not even seen nearly the best of either yet and so the 2007 could be a total stormer, if they both make it there.

This is worth bearing in mind before looking at any other horse when assessing at the task they face.

[guskennedy]

Quote: from Bulwark on 8:08 pm on Oct. 22, 2006[br]I think its absolutely ludicrous to say that one of these 2 horses winning the Derby is not almost certain.

Can I be your bookmaker, Bulwark?

[Bulwark]

I dont know Gus, will you give me lets say 10/1 that the derby is one by either Teofilo or Authorized.

[guskennedy]

If it’s "almost certain" that one of them will win the Derby, you won’t be wanting 10/1, will you?

[Aidan]

If it’s "almost certain" that one of them will win the Derby, you won’t be wanting 10/1, will you?

:biggrin: :biggrin: <br>

[Author]

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