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I agree on “form” Top Notch appears value at 33/1, Gord. However, ante-post value is not always about ability, likelihood of getting a run for your money is massively important. If only 50/50 about turning up bookies can afford to offer apparently tempting odds. With Henderson hotshot Altior 2/1 and Buveur Dair 14/1 currently a lot shorter, what are the odds Top Notch running?
Identity Theif is not “1/5th the odds”.
Good luck.
Well he was incredible Value Ginge at 33/1,he’s half those odds now after a run with ‘Arkle’ written all over it today.I have had another tenner e/w on at Hills 25/1…Thats incredible Value when others are going 14/1 pal.
Value is everything imo.
Just because a horse is 14/1 with one bookie and 25/1 with another doesn’t mean it’s “value”.
When a horse is an unlikely runner in an ante-post market some bookies will take a chance it doesn’t take part, some don’t. Top Notch is also as low as 12/1 for the JLT and 25/1 in a place.
Thistlecrack is as low as 5/1 for the King George and as big as 9/1. He’s also as low as 3/1 for the World Hurdle and as big as 8/1, 15/1 on betfair.
Native River is as low as 6/1 and and as high as 16/1, 25/1 on betfair.
I could go on forever.Whenever there’s doubt about a horse taking part bookies will entice punters in by offering ante-post odds which on “form” appear “value”.
In truth, there’s no more than a 50% chance of Top Notch going for the Arkle, which means bookies can double what they’d give if only one possible target. Hope he goes for the Arkle for you.
Holy ****** mojos you are going round the bloody streets and houses again Ginge…Simple question..Have I got value at 33/1 with Top notch for the Arkle?
No.
That comment will come back to haunt you,mark my words!Top Notch only has to carry on the upwardly progressive curve he’s on now to be guaranteed a place in the first 3 of the Arkle.The horse is a 2 miler so there is no other target for him my 33/1 and 25/1 e/w will be single figures come March so right now the ‘Value’ bet even Ante-Post wise for this seasons race is my lad.Nicky Henderson will happily run both ‘Altior’ and ‘Top Notch’ in the same race so I’m my usual quiet confident self. B-).I’ve said it for years that you know sweet Fanny Adams about Value and even less about Foresight,your scattergun approach kills every potential value bet you have,a 40/1 winner for you actually equates to a 6/4 winner and that is pathetic Value.
I’ve seen Top Notch getting a few mentions as being a value selection but would Charbel not be more of a value selection? Beat Top Notch and Le Prezien fair and square, 33/1 still available for him.
No.
That comment will come back to haunt you,mark my words!Top Notch only has to carry on the upwardly progressive curve he’s on now to be guaranteed a place in the first 3 of the Arkle.The horse is a 2 miler so there is no other target for him my 33/1 and 25/1 e/w will be single figures come March so right now the ‘Value’ bet even Ante-Post wise for this seasons race is my lad.Nicky Henderson will happily run both ‘Altior’ and ‘Top Notch’ in the same race so I’m my usual quiet confident self.
.I’ve said it for years that you know sweet Fanny Adams about Value and even less about Foresight,your scattergun approach kills every potential value bet you have,a 40/1 winner for you actually equates to a 6/4 winner and that is pathetic Value. My problem with the price of 33/1 has nothing to do with Top Notch’s form. Although you could say the same about any of the top 10 in the betting “only has to carry on the upwardly progressive curve he’s on now to be guaranteed a place in the first 3 of the Arkle”, there are only three places. On “form” 33/1 is value, but you’got to take in to account liklihood of running. There are two Nicky Henderson horses above him in the betting, including the short priced favourite Altior who (after winning the Supreme) will undoubtedly run in the Arkle if fit and jumping well. Buveur D’Air the other horse won the other 2 mile British Grde 1 novice hurdle at Aintree – although I believe he’ll stay the intermediate trip so is a possible for the JLT.
Top Notch has won at 2m2f on heavy; only time he’s tried 2m4f beaten well before stamina came in to play. Can’t blame the trip for that. So it’s far too soon to pidgeon hole Top Notch as purely a 2 miler. Stamina is certainly his main asset when racing at 2 miles. Unless getting a truly run race is raced prominently, trying to run the finish out of rivals. Often outpaced in closing stages against the best 2 mile hurdlers.
But what if he is a two miler? For you to say “there is no other target for him”, is naive. If there’s one race Nicky Henderson floods with runners it’s The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual 2m handicap chase. Loves winning the race named after his father, last time victorious with NOVICE Bellvano… Look at the courses Top Notch has run at so far over fences, Uttoxeter, Warwick and Plumpton. Getting ready for a handicap perhaps?
Fair play to you Gord, you’ve taken another opinion of where the horse will go.
Sometimes it is worth taking a chance on a horse turning up in a race at the price. Expect Top Notch’s odds to half once NRNB comes in. It’ll help your betting to realise why prices like this are so big, bookies tempting you in. Where the target is a toss up (as here) I’d personally want a considerably bigger price than if just one definite target.Value Is EverythingOh and… These days I don’t scattergun as much as you when betting ante-post Gordie Boy. Because one non-runner loser can ruin the “value” I’ve got on another horse in the race. eg If backing two horses with same stakes at the same price and only one turns up, then – in effect – the price a punter has got on the runner that does run has HALVED.
eg two ante-post 8/1 shots turn in to one 7/2 chance.
Another scenario is:
It is easy for the punter who’s done those two 8/1 bets to wrongly imagine he’s got better value than another who’s taken 4/1 for the one horse on the day.Getting RUNNERS is an important part of ante-post betting.
Day of race “scattergun” is different because non-runner stakes are returned. If two 8/1 shots backed and only one turns up you’re still on @ 8/1 (not 7/2)
Value Is EverythingTop Notch 16/1 with Hills to win ANY race at the Festival, Gord.
Value Is EverythingCharbel is superb value for this. Due to face Altior on Saturday and that one beat him easily in the Supreme, where Charbel finished 5th. But Charbel looks to me a much more natural jumper of fences than Altior and I’ve backed him in the Henry VIII on Saturday.
The form of Charbel’s debut win has been strengthened by Top Notch who was 3rd to him at Uttoxeter and has won his next two. Runner-up Le Prezien won a Grade 2 next time out.
33s is way too big. His trainer says the JLT might also come into the picture so I’ve had a saver at 75 on Betfair for that, but he looks a two-miler. I still hold to the belief that Altior’s jumping might let him down and he’ll be rerouted to the Champion Hurdle. If you want a related-contingency bet that is without penalty, you can bet Altior at 33s and Charbel at 25s in a double with P Power.
Personally, I would like to see Min in a scrap. It happens so rarely with the stable hotpots. Altior might be pretty good but I thought Min capitulated quite tamely in the Supreme.
There was a big field for his chasing debut but as happens so often Walsh was able to dictate the pace he wanted. Consequently, his jumping was never put under significant pressure. It is the same scenario for so many of the big guns when they make hurdling or chasing debuts. It seems the rags never want even the slightest moment of glory. You could perhaps understand it if Walsh was actually setting a breakneck pace.
Hopefully, he will meet Identity Thief and Cooper will repeat the tactics he used against Ordinary World.
Top Notch 16/1 with Hills to win ANY race at the Festival, Gord.
Well spotted pal,thats a helluva price…Fantastic Value too eh?
Charbel is superb value for this. Due to face Altior on Saturday and that one beat him easily in the Supreme, where Charbel finished 5th. But Charbel looks to me a much more natural jumper of fences than Altior and I’ve backed him in the Henry VIII on Saturday.
The form of Charbel’s debut win has been strengthened by Top Notch who was 3rd to him at Uttoxeter and has won his next two. Runner-up Le Prezien won a Grade 2 next time out.
33s is way too big. His trainer says the JLT might also come into the picture so I’ve had a saver at 75 on Betfair for that, but he looks a two-miler. I still hold to the belief that Altior’s jumping might let him down and he’ll be rerouted to the Champion Hurdle. If you want a related-contingency bet that is without penalty, you can bet Altior at 33s and Charbel at 25s in a double with P Power.
Unlucky there, Joe. Charbel clearly outfenced his rival just that the bigger engine of Altoir proved decisive.
Not convinced anymore about short prices about this horse for the Arkle after that sketchy jumping display. Btw how can you tell from a video whether or not a jumper arches his back? I simply can’t tell.
Min looks by far the best of them so far
On the basis of what?
Charbel wasn’t at all unlucky. He was completely outclassed. From about the fifth fence Altior actually jumped better than Charbel. I think Fehily was asleep over the first few fences.
Altior looked a bit more flexible at first viewing (though I’ll watch it fence by fence later) than he did at Kempton whereas Charbel did not jump as well as he did at Uttoxeter. Charbel is a very good horse. Where he was unlucky was in meeting this beast of a horse whose engine wouldn’t be many CCs short of Thistlecrack’s.
Altior could get steadily better over fences but I simply do not get it with what they’re doing. Given the state of the market, Altior would be favourite for the CH and would be very hard to beat. In comparison with The Arkle – in every aspect – I simply do not get it. Prestige, history books, prize money (86k V 250k), it makes no sense whatever to me. The horse could win the next 2 or 3 Champion Hurdles, but where does he go after The Arkle? A Champion Chase in 2018, staying chasing with all its attendant risks.
The whole thing seems illogical in the extreme.
Judge, watching a horse’s back end as he jumps gives the best clue as to how well he bends his back. Those who can’t flex properly tend to drag their back legs through the birch. I’l have a look again later at the race.
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