Quick Amends

[billion]

‘morning

Nathan

,

I do think the quick track returns holds up but to quote

MrE

and I have read his advice several times and it is to use the basic of your idea and build on it with the knowledge gained as you proceed.

I am enjoying watching how you get on and if it developes and hope it does well.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Nathan Hughes]

I’m pocketing the 9p profit

Just the paper trail from now on but including winners LTO.

2.45 Goodwood – Fencing Master(bf)(6) 14/1 this morning

Three Ships was a winning LTO but I’m in a hurry and cant find the paper with race details on so will start scoring P/L again from scratch tomorrow.

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[Nathan Hughes]

Sticking with bog I’m going to recorded the records to a 1pt stake on the following.

1. Overall P/L of both bf and winners LTO returning within 7 days.

2. bf return within 7 days

3. Winners LTO return within 7 days

4. bf or winners LTO returning within 7 days that are forecast fav from ATR website.(these selections will have a

***

next to them.)

4.00 Goodwood – Bowdler’s Magic(6)1LTO – 8/1
6.00 Galway – Gracchus(6)1LTO – 7/1
8.50 Leicester – Sir Bruno(5)bf – 6/1

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[Pompete]

Good luck Nathan.

I don’t know if you know but if you go onto the Adrain Massey Site you can ‘Custom Report’ all sorts of things – HERE

I’ve just done one for:

2010 only
All races (British only)
Beaten Favourite LTO
Favourite in new race
Last run 5 days or less

And the results were:

Stake 46
Wins 23
S/R 50%
Profit 42.60

[billion]

If Mr Massey and

Pompete

are correct

Nathan

and I have no reason to doubt things will be better from here on in and a whopping 50% SR

Billy's Outback Shack

[Nathan Hughes]

Thanks for that link Pete. It looks very useful.

Those stats look more encouraging.

I’ve got a list of 15 horses for tomorrow but have a gut feeling to go down the favourite route so apologise for changing my mind again but I’m looking for following now instead – 1st LTO or bf running within 7 days of last race and forecast fav from Atr website.

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[billion]

Yeah

Nathan

, I agree 15 is far too many and it is interesting to watch the reduction process.

I think it was

elcartero

who recently posted a comment saying something like he had great faith in the process of of the odds compiler finding the best horse as forecast favourite (my interpretation of his words).

Billy's Outback Shack

[Nathan Hughes]

Forecast from ATR website has gone down now.

These were the favourites from oddschecker.

5.45 Goodwood – Lost In Paris(7)bf 6/1 joint/f?
4.10 Galway – Coopers Crest(7)1LTO 2/1
2.55 Stratford – Holoko Heights(6)1LTO SP
3.30 Stratford – Lords Bridge(2)1LTO SP

I’ve put the prices in as that is what Id do if I was betting these from my Ladbrokes account bog.

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[Nathan Hughes]

5.45 Goodwood – Lost In Paris(7)bf 6/1 joint/f?

Lost

4.10 Galway – Coopers Crest(7)1LTO 2/1

Lost

2.55 Stratford – Holoko Heights(6)1LTO SP

N/R

3.30 Stratford – Lords Bridge(2)1LTO SP

Lost

Running Total –

Tomorrow

5.10 Galway – Kalellshan(4)1LTO 3/1
7.30 Newmarket – Skyfire(6)1LTO 11/2 (not fav oddscheck)
6.10 Haydock – Poppy’s Rose(7)1LTO 5/2
5.30 Bangor – Lords Bridge(1)bf SP

Will stick in the prices in the morning.!

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[billion]

I did promise to post the BF system from the days of yore and as yet have not found the begger, however. . . .

October 2002

dave jay

submitted this BF system he calimed to have used for 3 years (on and off) with caution for the changing seasons.

Clear forecast favourite (D Mirror used)

Was favourite LTO (thus BF for race under consideration)

Include odds on selections and suggests can be used for multiples.

I will post the one I am searching for as and when I find it

Billy's Outback Shack

[Nathan Hughes]

5.10 Galway – Kalellshan(4)1LTO 3/1 1st
7.30 Newmarket – Skyfire(6)1LTO 11/2 (not fav oddscheck)

Lost

6.10 Haydock – Poppy’s Rose(7)1LTO 5/2

Lost

5.30 Bangor – Lords Bridge(1)bf SP

Lost

Running total –

Tomorrow

2.20 Thirsk – Face The Problem(7)1LTO SP
2.30 Goodwood – Sea Lord(1)1LTO 9/4
4.00 Galway – Ask Jack(4)1LTO 3/1
5.55 Lingfield – Kipchak(7)1LTO SP

Will put in prices tomorrow(bog~).

Thanks for your help and suggestions Billion, I appreciate it.

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[billion]

I give up, having spent too long in the archives trying to find the illusive BF system. I have checked back into my own records (not a lot) but can suggest the folowing rules which have been taken from the archive section. I would like to have given credit to the unknown architect and confirmed the rules but sadly am unable to.

The BF must be in the top 4 of the weights. My interpretation is the top 4 can mean not simply 1,2,3,4 on the race card as there can be several horses on the same weight which make one weight group and so there could be quite a few in the top 4 weights.

The next check is to ensure the selection has had a previous win at the same (or better) grade of the race under consideration.

When favourite in the previous race it must have finished 2nd or 3rd, i.e. placed.

Last of all is the previous race must have been within 30 days (4 weeks)

Billy's Outback Shack

[Nathan Hughes]

2.20 Thirsk – Face The Problem(7)1LTO SP

1st 4/6

2.30 Goodwood – Sea Lord(1)1LTO 9/4
4.00 Galway – Ask Jack(4)1LTO 3/1
5.55 Lingfield – Kipchak(7)1LTO SP

1st 13/8

Today +1.28
Running total –

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[Nathan Hughes]

Sunday’s

2.20 Galway – Prince Erik(3)bf 7/4
3.05 Market Rasen – Our Guardian Angel(2)bf

N/R

4.45 Cork – Lough Ferrib(1)bf 8/1 (not fav oddsc)

Sea Lord was a N/R yesterday

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[Anonymous]

Excellent thread guys.

I haven’t done a statistical analysis, but a gut feeling makes me wonder whether the key to your approach is actually simply the days since the last time out, rather than favouritism in the market on that occasion. I’m sure I’ve read somewhere, in a source of much greater wisdom than I’m ever likely to possess, that the best indicator of a horse’s chance of winning any given race is it’s performance in its last race.

After that, though, I can’t see that you can ignore a whole raft of other factors – have a look at my spectacularly unsuccessful thread called "Back to Basics" for the broad categories I’d argue must be addressed.

I do think you might’ve pointed the way, though, which is more than I can say for any other "system" I’ve ever seen, so thanks for that.

Time is tight at the moment, but when I get the chance, I’ll do an analysis, based on your principles, allied to a few of my own. If the results are in any way useful, I’ll be sure to let you know.

Brian

[Pompete]

Further to my earlier post using the Custom Report on Adrian Massey’s site I’ve had a look at the last five years for this system:

# All British Races
# Clear Favourite
# BF (inc Joint) LTO
# Last race up to 5 days ago

2006

Staked 75
Wins 30
S/R 40%
Profit

2007

Staked 84
Win 32
S/R 38.1%
Profit

2008

Staked 79
Wins 29
S/R 36.7%
Profit

2009

Staked 82
Wins 35
S/R 42.7%
Profit

2010

Staked 47
Wins 23
S/R 48.9%
Profit

Last Five Years

Staked 367
Win 149
S/R 40.5%
Profit

So, 4 out of 5 winning years and a ROT over the 5 years of 13.4%. Whether those bare stats can be improved by adding filters I don’t know but may be of interest to someone.

[Nathan Hughes]

That’s brilliant Pete I’m going to have a couple of quid on Prince Erik at Galway now after reading that.

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