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I have just heard Tom Segal say on a podcast that Sprinter Sacre has had possibly 9 breathing operations. I did think he was the value selection based on maybe a 30% chance of winning by returning to near best form plus maybe a 15% chance of winning even if he only marginally improves on his last run. But the operations are news to me and combined with the bleeding last time, I am not so sure about SS now.
Sire de Grugy looks most solid to me as his corn problem seems to be sorted with the special shoes so a repetition of the form of Chepstow run seems plausible.
Given that operations take a lot out of a horse could all of the operations been the cause of his heart problem I wonder? I still think that joe public should be informed of breathing ops in the way that blinkers and tongue ties are.
As mentioned earlier, SDG never looked to me to be enjoying himself at Chepstow, not in the way he’d done last year. He won well enough, but didn’t look the same horse to me. Whether the corns played any part, I dont know, but fastish ground at a festival is not the place for a horse with brittle feet.
Apparently these shoes come off easier too. Moore says that a farrier will be with the horse, but also says the horse is very difficult to shoe behind without a sedative.
Should make for an interesting canter down!
Don’t think there was anything wrong in the way SDG moved at Chepstow. But I agree that running in plastic shoes on soft ground is going to be different to Cheltenham on good.
Value Is EverythingSorry GT – DB’s
Can’t see there’s anything wrong with DB’s jumping, although does not have the electric fluencey of SS or SDG at their very best. Slight doubt whether he’s as effective on “good”, for that very reason. Put in some good wins and runs on the surface in the past which at the time were either best efforts or close to it. Particularly remember his excellent 4th in the Triumph over smaller obstacles some years back on good ground with very limited previous experience.
DB seems a different horse in his last two starts, now a genuine racehorse. Those two on soft ground and it’s true others travelled better which may suggest good ground on Wednesday might place too much emphasis on speed. Slight doubt, but he’s probably one that finds plenty off the bridle these days and Cheltenham is more of a stamina track than Ascot or Sandown.
Value Is EverythingGT, firstly on SDG at Chepstow. I tend to look at a horse’s overall demeanour, not just his action. Head carriage and ear-movement, as you know, can convey a lot. As mentioned earlier, for those who thought that he was right back to his best, take a look at the exuberance he showed at Ascot last year on heavy ground, tanking through the race and coming away as though he’d never enjoyed anything so much in his life.
On DB, I’ve had a few quid on, so I hope he wins, but just looking at the race again the other night, it now seems much less straightforward than it did a few weeks back. Hence the reason I believe jumping will play a big part. On that front, SS would normally hold all the aces, but he’ll be rusty, and some of those huge jumps he used to throw were scary – I was always waiting for him to make a catastrophic error.
DB has been pretty solid on soft, but his jumping on good wouldn’t inspire the same confidence (although perhaps it has just improved as his form has improved).
CF has a blotted copybook, and I’m always wary of horses whose connections cannot settle on what his best trip is. SDG seems to rely a lot on his jockey for guidance and if he makes a mistake early, that will set doubts in Jamie’s mind.
Mr Mole jumps a bit too much off his forehand for my liking, not getting his haunches properly under him.
Special Tiara can make mistakes as he tires and pace judgement will be critical. The most reliable jumper in the field is probably Sizing Europe. At his age, he’d be past it in a ‘standard’ QM, but I might have a bit EW at 50s. Even at 13, he has a Grade 1 and 2 in his bag this season and his form figures over the past 5 seasons are superb: 4111113/2231/2121121/111122/1244-116
GT, firstly on SDG at Chepstow. I tend to look at a horse’s overall demeanour, not just his action. Head carriage and ear-movement, as you know, can convey a lot. As mentioned earlier, for those who thought that he was right back to his best, take a look at the exuberance he showed at Ascot last year on heavy ground, tanking through the race and coming away as though he’d never enjoyed anything so much in his life.
Watched Ascot Joe and you make a good case, but did you also notice how Hidden Cyclone (2nd) jumped poorly? Not the same horse that chased home Dynaste at Cheltenham. 3rd was the on the downgrade Kauto Stone. Other Irish horse Days Hotel ran poorly and Somersby unseated. So (at level weights) Sire De Grugy had very little to beat, albeit not his fault and could not have been more impressive. Where as, the weight given away at Chepstow means (in theory) had plenty to beat and times on the day suggest the performance is up with his best. Therefore, would not expect SDG to move as easily through mid and latter stages of Chepstow than did at Ascot.
Value Is EverythingSpecial Tiara can make mistakes as he tires and pace judgement will be critical. The most reliable jumper in the field is probably Sizing Europe. At his age, he’d be past it in a ‘standard’ QM, but I might have a bit EW at 50s. Even at 13, he has a Grade 1 and 2 in his bag this season and his form figures over the past 5 seasons are superb: 4111113/2231/2121121/111122/1244-116
Although “value is everything”… Wonderful racehorse though he is and hate saying it but… Can’t see Sizing Europe being good enough these days. Even last year’s successes would’ve won them easier in his prime. So on the downgrade last year and in all probability deteriorated further this. Trainer wasn’t sure whether he’d go here which may tell its own story. He’s also another prominent runner.
Would not put you off Special Tiara “form”/ability-wise, I know I won’t anyway.
However, would be one I’d have been more interested in without so many front/prominent runners. Suspect he’ll be pushed early for the lead and doubt jockey will have much say in “pace judgement”. For an each way outsider, I’d have thought a hold up horse like Simply Ned might prove a better prospect. 
Value Is EverythingI had in my mind that Champagne Fever would set the pace with DB maybe shadowing him, and then we would have SdeG a few lengths back with SS shadowing him. If the horses all run to best form (which I admit is most unlikely) then DB will catch CF, SdeG will catch DB and finally SS will take the lead after the last fence. But the existence of these other front runners, ST and SE, confuses the picture. In particular I think it’s a negative for CF who apparently runs best at the front. It will be interesting to see how Ruby rides him.
Expect Ruby to put CF upsides or at least with a clear view somewhere at the front of the arrowhead Kasparov, similar to the King George. However, there are plenty of others who will want that posi, including Mr Mole. Agree, pace angle is a negative to both.
Value Is EverythingI think Ruby will welcome the pace-setters and let them get on with it. He won the Supreme by doing a quick-quick-slow from the front – a superb ride which, although I backed him that day (and last year) puts me off the horse a wee bit. Getting mugged on the line in the Arkle by a horse supposedly 23lbs his inferior increases my bias against him, and the fact that connections don’t quite know what distance suits him best makes him a risky bet at the price imo.
Have taken my own advice and had a bit EW on Sizing Europe at 66/1. Most open QM for years.
I had in my mind that Champagne Fever would set the pace with DB maybe shadowing him, and then we would have SdeG a few lengths back with SS shadowing him. If the horses all run to best form (which I admit is most unlikely) then DB will catch CF, SdeG will catch DB and finally SS will take the lead after the last fence. But the existence of these other front runners, ST and SE, confuses the picture. In particular I think it’s a negative for CF who apparently runs best at the front. It will be interesting to see how Ruby rides him.
No, they wont wait around with Sprinter Sacre, if he is striding like he can he will be asked to stride out from the top of the hill. Its here that he has always done immense damage to his opponets. Here is Geraghtys blog entry btw. …. if this is true, i cant see him beaten
“ust before 3.30 on Wednesday afternoon we will know the answer to the question I’ve been asked more than any other over recent weeks: “How’s SPRINTER SACRE?”
I can tell you now that he is going into the Queen Mother Champion Chase (3.20) in as good a form as he was before he won it with ease in 2013.
More important still, he’s in much better shape than he was before his comeback race at Ascot in the middle of January.
He just got tired that day finishing second to Dodging Bullets and I know he’s improved considerably on that.
I gave him a school the Friday before last and it told me he was in a good place – his schooling has always given a good indication of where he is.
I’d imagine the ground will be suitable and although I can’t be over-confident because of the problems he’s had to overcome I couldn’t ask for Nicky Henderson and the team to have produced him in better shape.
I’m just hoping that is good enough because I don’t see any difference between what he’s doing now and what he was doing in March 2013.”
SHL
Please God. I’ll forgive you for Annie today costing me a fortune. Forget money. Let this one go in! Come on Sprinter!!
That’s Champagne Fever out of it due to an injury in his box.
How lucky can the bookies get? Hope everyone had NRNB on him.
That’s taken plenty out of the race for me, as I felt he would surely have made the running and although I am dubious as to whether 2m is far enough for him now, there are questions surrounding pretty much all of the field.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Didn’t find out till I went to place my bet on him, although they had said he’d been badly scratched on his way over and hasn’t got over it. Which is good in a way as I didn’t want anything to beat SdG [And have backed Sprinter Sacre win only with a free bet to ensure that he doesn’t win; my apologies to SS backers]
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