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I really think Somersby is overpriced at 33/1 given he ran a cracker in the race last year, has shown good form in the spring round Cheltenham and seems as good as ever following a nice run at Sandown. Given that it’s unlikely that Sprinter Sacre AND Sire de Grugy will turn up, he must have a huge chance of a top 3 finish. When you look at horses priced shorter than him, a lot surely won’t even run in the race: Al Ferof (Ryanair), Champagne Fever (Ryanair), Vautor (JLT), Simonsig (fit in tim?), Ballycasey (Ryanair), Eduard (might miss the festival all together). So that’s my thinking. If Sprinter turns up it will be a procession though. I have got ‘the black aeroplane’ involved in a couple of accas at 4s though.
It’ll be fascinating to see what happens to Al Ferof and Champagne Fever, who are very similar horses when you think about it.
Both ran in the Champion Bumper, Supreme and Arkle despite being considered staying types for the future. To get them competitive for those events, they had to be buzzed up to race prominently and hang in there in top gear all the way.
Could it be that these two greys don’t understand that the game has changed at three miles? They’re so used to being asked to go flat-out that they’re now too keen to excel at what would be their ideal distances if they could settle.
Al Ferof seems to have improved his jumping since his novice days, but was so woefully outpaced in Sprinter Sacre’s Arkle that you wouldn’t be certain that two miles is the answer. Champagne Fever probably has a little more toe and might be the better one of the pair to try the Champion Chase.
6 more days guys, until the black aeroplane returns, sprinter sacre!!
If he is 90%the horse he was I will be over the moon.
However I don’t expect that kind of level first time back but I can see him come 2nd not given a hard ride to finish
SS’s odds on the exchange have come in a bit to about 3.1 which is encouraging but I notice Champagne Fever has been fairly firm as well. All logical if you think SS will win if he turns up, but still has a fair chance of not appearing.
One concern I have is Henderson is already preparing an excuse for not turning up at Ascot – wrong type of ground. And nobody seems to be piling in on the exchange ante post for Ascot. However, the weather forecast looks ok so probably good to soft which should be ok for SS.I notice Captain Conan has an entry. He hasn’t run since last year’s contest when he was 2nd fav but fractured his pelvis. Nicky said after that a month’s box rest should put it right, but presumably it’s taking a bit longer. Might be worth a go at 33-1 NRNB.
It wouldn’t be the greatest surprise that Henderson gets cold feet again on Saturday then the only route left is the Game spirit.
Once again, it will be in the balance as to whether better ground is available. Newbury in February has often succumbed to the elements or been a bog.
Question is, do they really think they can then send him into the heat of the Festival without a run since Dec 13 (or completed outing since April 13)?
It’s not Quevega and Henderson is not Willie Mullins that’s for sure.Henderson confirms today that Sprinter would be highly unlikely to run at Cheltenham without a prep.
Lay lay lay if you’re not holding a NRNB voucher !!
Always the Game Spirit if Ascot ground is too bad
Should be ok though
Yes but he was talking very negatively about the chances of better ground for the Game Spirit, which is an obvious conclusion to draw.
I really think they should just get him out and run. His record on Heavy/Soft is exemplary, I’m sure Geraghty would look after him and not give him a hard race.Just before 48 hour declaration stage for Saturdays race sprinter sacre went 2/1 for Saturday now he’s officially been declared he’s evens. If he wins he will be evens or odds on for champion chase and if he’s comfortably beaten he probably won’t go to Cheltenham. So I think 7/4 NRNB for Cheltenham is looking very nice guys!!!
GET ON ITConsidered doing the same myself but bottled it for the following reason:
Most seem to think he will either win and become a huge favourite which at 7-4 he already is. You might be in a niceish position if he goes evens, you’ll almost have a point over the market.
The other option is that he flops completely and will probably never run again.
NO one seems to be concerned that he might run an OK race in say second or third yet comfortably beaten, which is definitely a possibility. This will probably lead to the "he needed the race" argument and see him going to the festival, probably at a bigger price and probably lose.
Reality is, he is nine and been off for a while. He might still be decent but at nine and French he should be in decline as a 2 mile chaser.
For me, rather than exposing myself to a low odds bet of 7-4 I’d rather watch simply as a fan.
Considered doing the same myself but bottled it for the following reason:
Most seem to think he will either win and become a huge favourite which at 7-4 he already is. You might be in a niceish position if he goes evens, you’ll almost have a point over the market.
The other option is that he flops completely and will probably never run again.
NO one seems to be concerned that he might run an OK race in say second or third yet comfortably beaten, which is definitely a possibility. This will probably lead to the "he needed the race" argument and see him going to the festival, probably at a bigger price and probably lose.
Reality is, he is nine and been off for a while. He might still be decent but at nine and French he should be in decline as a 2 mile chaser.
For me, rather than exposing myself to a low odds bet of 7-4 I’d rather watch simply as a fan.
He’s actually 9 in a few months time ( although was officially 9 on Jan 1st ) and whilst he’s a baguette, he didn’t race in France as a youngster ( unlike horses like Long Run, who was running in a hurdles race a month after his real 3rd birthday )
I’ve never backed him – always thought him the type to take a spectacular fall at some point, though he proved me well wrong there.
Nobody can know how he’ll fare tomorrow, but racing needs him, and I hope he floats home hard held.
I’m pretty confident we’ll get good ground come March and if thats the case we will see
Dodging Bullets
bounce of the ground and run away from everything.I’ve backed this fellow at 40/1 for this prior to the Tingle creek as I expected victory that day at Sandown too,a race which throws up serious Champion Chase types and this fellow is certainly one of them.I hope
Al Ferof
doesn’t run in this as I missed taking the 100’s on the machine by a second when Paul stated he’d like to see him aggressively ridden in this.With doubts surrounding the 2 massive big guns I’m again happy with my e/w Ante-Post price here.
We needed to get that out the way today.What have we learned from todays Clarence house?
Sprinter Sacre
is the finest looking horse ever trained,he’s not the horse he was! He showed glimpses of it,travelled beautifully but jumped stickily at times can he reverse form come March with my Horse?? Not a prayer!
My fellow is a different horse to the weak minded one who contested last years Arkle,He’s as Cool as me now and granted a clear round Prestbury Park on his ideal Good ground he Will run away from them all again!! TAPK knows.7/2 Sprinter Sacre for this race now, Dodging Bullets averages about 9/2 and Sire De Grugy varies wildly from 5/2 to 5/1.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I agree it’s so difficult for these horses to come back even the greatest off them all struggled Big bucks.Sprinter sacre reminds me off the same thing i understand sprinter sacre is younger then big bucks but big bucks come back run a promising race like sprinter sacre did there and then was dissapointing at the festival i feel the same fate could await sprinter sacre
I agree Dodging bullets must have a great chance but what’s it beaten there if sprinter sacre isn’t the same horse?.Somersby who always runs well but very rare he wins.
The horse i’m looking forward to seeing again is the reigning champ Sire de Grugy he hasn’t had as long a layoff as sprinter and could be a big test for dodging bullets…I agree a rushed
prep before the festival is never a great thing.But i hope gary moore gets a run into him and i feel its between dodging bullets and sire de grugy for the champ chase.
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