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I am amazed you can still get 3/1 on Sprinter Sacre. He went off at 1/4 in 2013. Now, maybe Sire de Grugy can run him close so we will see SS at 1/2 and SG at 3/1 on the day. So SS at 3/1 AP is saying SS probably won’t turn up. But by all accounts he is back in fine fettle so probably will turn up. So on my reckoning we have a 60% chance of turning up and a 67% chance of winning if he turns up so that should be a 40% shot or 6/4 rather than 3/1.
Also SG may be even better value. SG will probably go off at evens if SS doesn’t turn up. So we have probabilities for SG at 60% times 25% plus 40% times 50% or 40% overall. So also 6/4 rather than 4/1.
If Sprinter Sacre turns up for the champion chase it will be like printing money.
He won’t be 3/1 on the day if he does, but the gamble is whether or not he actually makes it there. At that price it has to be worth a speculative punt.
Any ante post bet is a speculative punt they will make it to the big day, regardless if they have had problems in the past, so 3/1 about pretty much a certainty has to be an ante post play.- Total Posts 764
It’s a tricky one isn’t it Harvey!
The way I see it is if he turns up he wins, will be very interesting to see how he does over the season (especially in the Tingle Creek). Will they have him near 100% and primed to go? Or will Nicky leave a lot to work with?
It makes it difficult from an ante-post point of view, if he doesn’t win at Sandown then that could well be the final nail in the coffin and we’ll accept that he just isn’t as good as he was. Or it could be the team not wanting to over-do him in his first run back and be saving him for March.
I’ll probably end up doing some small ante-post trebles with him in, but nothing more for the time being.
It sure is, but as I have already said, "any" ante post bet come with risk, so for me he goes in any ante post permutation….he’s the Frankel of the jumps and 3/1 at any time of the year is just to big to resist.
Good luck with your trebles!Have just backed Champagne Fever at 14/1 for this. Sprinter Sacre misses the Tingle Creek and there must be doubts about whether we see him on a racecourse again. Likewise Sire De Grugy seems to be in a race against time to make the gig. Simonsig would probably step into the breach in the absence of Sprinter Sacre but he misses the Peterborough Chase and is a doubt for the King George now.
After those three there’s not a whole lot left. I think Champagne Fever may be too free to be at his best over staying distances and if he gets beaten in the King George I think the Champion Chase may look a really attractive proposition to connections, more so than the Ryanair, for which they might have Boston Bob or Djakadam anyway.
Tommy i expect CF to get beat in KG but he bounce back in gold cup a race more suited for him.
I’ve taken 14s Vautour for a small bet. I know it would be most unusual for the yard to run him, but if the principals don’t turn up, and nothing comes out of the woodwork (as SDG did), I think they’d be severely tempted.
Potentially the worst Champion Chase on record.
Have thrown a few shillings at Valdez at 33s
Potentially the worst Champion Chase on record.
Have thrown a few shillings at Valdez at 33s
I believe King has already announced Valdez is out for the season. If so, he should not, arguably, have been in that market – worth checking (though I suppose Binocular/Kicking King will always be cast up)
With all the doubts over Sire de Grugy and SS how about a 40/1 shot of Western Warhorse?
Any thoughts on CUE CARD for this if big 2 not there it be a weak race so what he done so far he could easily make all in field like this.
With all the doubts over Sire de Grugy and SS how about a 40/1 shot of Western Warhorse?
Western Warhorse out for the season too.
Darren, I’d rather wait and see if Cue Card returns to proper form. I suspect there’s something ailing him – possible breathing/bleeding (only my opinion)
I don’t think Cue Card is quick enough anymore for two miles either, grand horse that he is.
I reckon we might see one of Champagne Fever or Ballycasey go for this – depending on how badly it could cut up.
We all know CF’s record over course and distance, but connections seem keen to step him up in trip. Ballycasey emptied pretty quickly in the RSA last year, having made a winning debut over 2m1f. With Djakadam looking a non stayer on Saturday, the Ricci’s have no gold cup horse, but three Ryanair types.
I’m not confident enough to back anything yet,but will keep an eye on the markets.
I’m pretty confident we’ll get good ground come March and if thats the case we will see
Dodging Bullets
bounce of the ground and run away from everything.I’ve backed this fellow at 40/1 for this prior to the Tingle creek as I expected victory that day at Sandown too,a race which throws up serious Champion Chase types and this fellow is certainly one of them.I hope
Al Ferof
doesn’t run in this as I missed taking the 100’s on the machine by a second when Paul stated he’d like to see him aggressively ridden in this.With doubts surrounding the 2 massive big guns I’m again happy with my e/w Ante-Post price here.
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