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Here’s some more nice stats, Zarkava.
I feel my earlier comments about the QA being a donkey derby are a bit harsh – Paco Boy is a lovely animal and Gladiatorus stiffened the loins out in Dubai but the rest? Here’s the complete Group One history of the field.
Gladiatorus 21
Paco Boy 7184
Alexandros 37372
Mac Love 0240
Dream Eater 659
Cesare 5444
Arabian Gleam 58
Aqlaam 0
Main Aim –It’s fairly threadbare. The race is wide open.
Poor renewal or not I can’t see Mac Love winning this, I don’t think he is up to winning a race in this company, never won a G1 or G2 and he has had a long career, he should be wanting here. Would be some training feat if he were to win here.
The way they had Alexandros run in the Lockinge with no whip was a very credible effort, and with Godolphins record in this race I wouldn’t be surprised if we had a Godolphin 1-2, and with how Alexandros was pummeled by Gladiatorus 5/2 does seem very decent value, I will probably go a rfc for the Goldolphin pair.
Paco Boy doesn’t really interest me at his current odds although I really like the horse although the danger I think could be Main Aim, think he could be the type of colt that Stoute has trained to perfection and was a surprise they aimed for this instead of the Jubilee so he must be impressing SMS, if he were to win, it would be hard to bet against most of his runners.
Well I don’t know about Maxilon but I’m hoping for a place at the most. I’ve convinced myself that Paco Boy will win. If you didn’t know anything about the horses, you’d say that Paco Boy was the one to take out of the Lockinge. There’s a reason he keeps being campaigned over a mile and I think he’ll win it.
Is this the first time Frankie is not riding a Godolfin first string?
Checking form yesterday, I noticed the ’08 Jersey Stakes favourite was ridden by Kerrin McEvoy (Calming Influence), and Dettori was aboard the 10/1 Il Warrd.
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Kerrin McEvoy also retained the ride on Shamardal to win the SJP at York, after Dubawi was withdrawn on the morning of the race, plus a host of lesser group winners over the years.
Imo, people are reading far too much into the lad keeping the ride. He is obviously viewed as the ‘home-grown’ replacement for Frankie in the fulness of time; rode, and paced, the horse brilliantly against much better opposition in Dubai, and has more than enough in hand of these for any small abberation not to be a problem.
Not forgetting, of course, that Frankie rides the 2nd best horse in the race, a combination well-capable of ensuring the pace is kept ‘honest’.Reethard. God forbid that Godolfin would use team tactics.The Coolmore haters would come out of the woodwork to scream to heaven and Frankie would rush to the stewards room to protest .
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Nothing wrong with keeping the pace honest, Andyhod – it’s deliberately thwarting it that causes problems.
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No official bookies here carv only the tote at the racing on a sunday but about 28 million crazy punters who bet on soccer golf racing or whatever.
How much do you reckon finds it way back to wherever everyday? I dont have a personal account with any UK bookies you silly boy. Not what you know it’s who you know as the saying goes.You’re getting paranoid Fist- I wasn’t talking about you!
Wouldn’t agree that making the running is a disadvantage over the straight mile- if anything prominent racers are favoured since the renovations. Ramonti made all in 07 and Hardasun was always close up last year.
Reviewing my queries re: the entire field, those I raised about Gladiatorus are pretty weak and 50/50 compared to Paco Boy, Main Aim, Aqlaam etc etc
I won’t be surprised if the posts I read after the race are: "Wow! That was awesome!" The horse wins by 3-4 and we all wonder why we bothered taking him on.
Godolphin have done it before – not only winning the race itself but winning it with an acquisition of Italian origin.
Get on!
Red Riot, it’s more about the process of elimination than anything else.
You say Mac Love doesn’t have the class and you’re probably right. But a bookmaker is willing to offer me 50/1 and at that price, I can have a throwaway each way bet.
If it wins, great – partytime in Maxland. If it loses – shoulder shrug.
Contrast this to the feelings experienced by Gladiatorus backers.at 15/8. If that one is cooked, fingers will be burned.
Here’s the logic:
Paco Boy, Arabian Gleam, Dream Eater
will be running up and down on the same spot in the final furlong because they are seven furlong horses. The latter duo in particular lack the Group One class to get away with this lack of stamina. I can see Paco running over the pond at some point and the other two at Newbury in August.
Cesare
– sadly, if the admirable Fanshawe horse runs like any of its recent stable companions – will be doing an impression of an asthmatic goat when Murtagh asks for an effort. Otherwise, I’d be very interested: A fantastic Ascot record.
Based on Newbury running, when the line jockeys get into drive position,
Aqlaam
will be admiring the gypsies in neighbouring Buckinghamshire. Not ever so sure that the Haggas horses are in tip top shape either, though that’s just me.
That leaves
Alexandros
who has also yet to win in Group One company but could win, and
Main Aim,
who comes out of a Listed race which the RP rate as very average for the grade. They rate his Newbury handicap higher. Does Main Aim stay a mile? Who knows.
Try this little exercise: Substitute the trainer and jockey of Main Aim with the trainer and jockey of Mac Love. How would you price the horses?
At worst, Mac Love will finish fourth behind the two Godolphin horses and Main Aim. I fancy one of the Sheikh’s horses to run below par (I long gave up making predictions about the horses of Sir Michael Stoute).
Oddschecker tells me that I can get 50/1 with Ladbrokes in the high street and they will give me 1/4 the odds for three places.That’s just over 12/1if Mac Love places and a 6/1 return for my overall stake. I’ve had many worse bets this week!
Best of luck anyroad – what a great week this is!!!
All depends on what pace is set as to whether prominent racers will have an advantage or not though isn’t it. The horse looks in a hurry to get on with things, far harder to ride the fractions right on the straight mile at Ascot than it is around the bends at Nad Al Sheba. I’m against rather than with Gladiatorus.
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Ummmm NO. I am not backing odds on Fist. Paco Boy 7/2 = 22.2%, Main Aim 5/1 = 16.7% and now Alexandros 9/1 = 10%. 22.2 + 16.7 + 10 = 48.9. 48.9% is around 21/20 that is ODDS AGAINST. If you thought it should be odds on may be you should get on too. I backed something at around 21/20 that I believe has between an 8/11 and 4/6 chance. If you don’t understand why I should back 3 horses at combined odds of 21/20 what about one horse at 21/20, is that wrong?
Nothing if it wins mate.
The thing is you will take forever to make money out of the game if at all.
Anyway the best price I can find are 9/4 9/2 and 9/1 which is just under evens at 5/1 as you say is just over.
Most of the time you post you talk about backing 3 and 4 horses which most likely everytime you bet in a race you are backing at short odds. 1/1 to 2/1 at a guess.
That is the quickest way to an early exit or a vist to poverty street IMO
I know you feel you have more chance backing 3 horses in one race but in truth you are making all 3 horses even money shots to beat a 9/4 fav.
Logic tell me Alexandros is not an even momney shot to win the race in any language but if I do what you are doing that’s all I am going to get.
Even if I eliminate him I am only getting 6/4 on my cash.
it’s your money mate but you will need a lot of patience to make money out of that and IMO your time would be better spent studying videos and trying dig out 5 or 6 single bets a month and adjusting your stake accordingly.
I’m not saying I never back 2 horses in a race. I did this week but no way was I going to get 1/1 money about the horse I fancied most. You have to chose your races better IMO and watch out for the right opportunities
I backed Tartan Bearer AP at 5/1 let’s say my stake was 2000 pts then I bet 700 pts Vision D’etat 3/1. If my main fancy wins I am getting better odds than are available now and making 9300 pts profit if the other wins I make only 100 pts profit…….in other words I am still getting aprox 7/2 about Tartan Bearerer on my outlay.
To ensure an equal return if any of the 2 win I have to fork out another 2300 pts on Vision D’etat and if one of them wins I get 12,000 back for a 5,000 pt outlay, but the odds of 7/5 dont appeal to me and the possible loss is more than I wish to gamble on a race of his description.
I think tht’s where you are going wrong. You are looking for value bets finding them then taking all the value out of them by betting too many in the one race. Even when the odds are longer I’ve seen you chose 5 and 6 horses are very often dont find the winner……….I think I’ve had six conseciutive losers about twice in the last 2 years if that……you can do it in 59.8 seconds
BTW in the interest of the forum you won’t comment on me saying a fictitous book?. Don’t be so self rightoeus and patronising mate. I don’t think that is a slanderous desciption in any way whatsoever. If I make a book up it’s fictitous as I am not a bookie and wouldn’t lay the prices and neither would you lay yours.
Fist,
If I back 22.22 points @ 7/2, 16.67 points @ 5/1 and 10 points @ 9/1.
If the 7/2 shot won I’d win 51.1 points on the race.
If the 5/1 shot won I’d win 51.13 points on the race.
If the 9/1 shot won I’d win 51.11 points on the race.Staking 48.89 points to win just over 51 points whichever wins.
By backing all three prices I am taking 1.045/1.
It is just the same as backing one horse at around 1.045/1.Not that most of my bets are at such short combined prices.
However, I prefer to back one or two to win and one or two in savers.
3/1 Galdiatorus? You would either be very poor or very rich after laying that price. Be a que from Towester to Thailand
Read what I said Fist. I would NOT lay Gladiatorus at 3/1. 3/1 does not have a mark up to it.
You should count one bet as one whole race. The race above should be counted as one bet. I either win in the race or not. The profit on the bet equals the profit on the race.
You stick to your way Fist, I’ll stick to mine.
Why not show us how good you are by doing a Lays and Plays thread Fist? I have just started one. Of course if have not got the bottle…..
Then we can see who’s going wrong
Mark
I don’t bet everyday as I think it’s a mugs game to do so, but as for Ascot all of the following were posted on here as I backed them.
Ratio Ascot AP Bets
1 50 Possible Actual Return
price taken P.Return
4,000 win Yeats 4/1 20,000
4,000 win Gladiatorus 9/4 13,000
12,000 win Mastercraftsman N 7/433,000
1000 win Tartan Bearer 5/1 6000
300 win Vision DEtat 3/1 1200
5500 win Canford Hills NB 5/133000
500 500 place Rose Blossom 10/1 7250
3000 win Elusive Wave 3/1 12000
40 40 Place Borderlesscott 10/1 580
40 40 Place Cannonball 40/1 2080
40 40 Place Kayf Armais 8/1 480
40 40 Place Galient 16/1 880
1880 win Gladiatorus 5/2 6580
32340 pts win 136,050
660 pts place average odds 4.122727273
33000 total pts staked
I’m banking on Mastercraftsman or Canford Hills winning. If either one does win the worst thing that can happen is I break even.Good luck with your selections Ginge the challenge is on.
Sorry about mess I copy and pasted it of my xl spreadsheetWell there you go Nad Al Sheba form goes up in smoke once again. Still think I was being xenophobic?
Well Paco Boy DOES stay a mile
, hacked up, impressive. Great run by Cesare.Paco Boy :
Horses do have a habit of making fools of us all.
Gladiatorus ? Best horse in the world ? Hmmm ?
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
That was a shocking ride from Ajtebi.
In contrast, an absolutely calm, cool, and collected ride from Richard Hughes, just tracked Gladiatorus and then we he folded, he had hand fulls of horse left.
Very pleased to see Paco Boy win, but can’t help but think it was a very below par ride from Ajtebi on Gladiatorus.
Who did Ahmed think he was riding? Pegasus?
I saw nerves and itchy, itchy fingers in that ride.
Paco Boy :
Horses do have a habit of making fools of us all.
Gladiatorus ? Best horse in the world ? Hmmm ?
I would never trust Nad Al Sheba form. It is Sheikh Mohammeds track (primarily) and everything there is set up for Godolphin / Sheikh’s horses. look at the disadvantage European horses must have when they race over there.
Gladiatorus is not the best horse in the world I don’t care what anyone says. Wasn’t given the best of rides admittedly.
Sorry about mess I copy and pasted it of my xl spreadsheet
, hacked up, impressive. Great run by Cesare.
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