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My brief tuppence worth on the matter.
With the possible exception of one or two, none of the horses listed above have been regularly able to run to a mark over 125. It must also be remembered that Ouija Board receives a sex allowance in races against colts – therefore she can theoretically have run 4lbs worse than one of them in a race and still have won.
Arguing about whether a particular horse is "great" is generally pointless due to everyone’s perception of that particular word. As it happens, I think that Bedtime Boys, Coomakista and Christy Beamish are "great" horses, but 99% of people of here would probably disagree with me. Having worked in handicapping, a rating of 130+ generally is the benchmark for "greatness", therefore in handicapping terms she isn’t a "great" horse. However, she is "great" if you are only comparing her to the generally low standard of Group One horses in the last couple of years – and she is also "great" just as animals like Persian Punch and Sergeant Cecil were regarded as the same.
At the end of the day – there is no point in "what ifs" and "should’ves"
If I was given a quid for every time a jock said "this is the best colt/filly/two-year-old etc. I’ve ridden", I would be rich enough not to want to bother replying to this thread.
Not enough fillies have run in the Prince of Wales to decide whether they’ve got a poor record or not.
Alexandrova is probably on a par, ability wise, with OB but until they meet, or until Alexandrova races against colts (unlikely) it is a shade risky to draw comparisons. I’m certainly hoping they both make it to the Breeders Cup as it should be a great (there’s that word again!!) race.
TMM has QB about right imhaho, top class Fillie/mare, but never gonna beat Top class colts, she’ll beat the above average ones and it’s great when people rate horses like Davd Junior better than her
But let me ask you something – do you rate any of the following?……Acropolis, North Light, Warrsan, Valixir, Pride, Mamool, Tap Dance City or Grey Swallow?
As greats? Hardly!
Maybe you rate one or two of these…..Shamdala, Westerner, Reefscape, Cherry Mix or Norse Dancer?
Nope!
You surely must rate one of the following…..Electrocutionist, Manduro, David Junior or Notnowcato?
And again, no!
It is true that norse dancer ran a couple of good races in his time as did westerner but neither horse is really a good yardstick.
Electrocutionist and david junior are two competent horses on their day but were fresh and looked terrible for it when beaten by ouija board in the POW, Electroccutionist was green as grass that day, he looked like he didnt know if he was coming or going. Thus the PoW was hardly a good renewal this year. David junior still looking under par then humped her in the eclipse.
I have never said that ouija board is a complete tube, like i have said, she is a good filly and an average group1 horse, she is not, and never will be a great.
Do i rate Alexandrova?
As a filly she is clearly good but she has not yet faced the colts, and when she does then i can better assess just how poor the horses she has so far beaten are. I have a suspicion that she will probably be average like ouija board, but i will not decide until she is tested.
All in all ouija board is a consistant 123 horse as i have mentioned which will win her fillies races aswell as below par colts races.
Would I be right in assuming by your faith in ouija boards unrealistic abilities that you are female, by any chance?
Also, i detect that if a horse wins a group1 you instantly think it qualifies as a great horse, regardless of what it beats on the day or in what style.
Right, I’ve just taken a look at Nick Mordin’s website. Looking at the archives for May (this is the only month I checked because I want to use a quote from his assessment of George Washington for my next article).
I’ll name the horse, the level he predicts he/she’ll achiever based on his rating, the race in which the rating was achieved, and the horse’s subsequent results.
Hoh Mike, Group 1, Windsor Maiden……3 losses in Group 2s
Red Rocks, Group 2, Listed HQ race……4 close finishes in Group 1/2s
Spectait, valuable handicap, Class 4 H’Cap at Kempton……..won the Totesport Mile
Pride of Nation, Group 2, H’Cap at Haydock…….2 flops as favourite in handicaps
Imperialistic, Black Type, H’Cap at Catterick…….best finish 3rd of 5 in Listed race
Blue Monday, Group 1, Listed race at Goodwood……2 3rds in Group 1s
Smart Enough, Good H’Capper, Goodwood Maiden……2 wins in handicaps, currently favourite for Cambridgeshire
Septimus, Group 1, Dante Stakes…….near last place finish in the Derby (not to mention he thought the Derby was a Visindar-Septimus match race!)
Solent, Group class, Newbury H’Cap……hasn’t won since (7 runs in handicaps)
Look Again, further decent handicap success (recommended Rose Bowl H’Cap at Epsom on Derby day), York H’Cap………2nd in Rose Bowl
Baby Strange, decent juvenile, Bath Listed race…….won Class 3 race next time, before 10th in Coventry Stakes
This is about a third of the horses on the page.
And a further select few…..
‘SINDIRANA HAS A REAL CHANCE IN THE OAKS’ — went on to finish last in the Ribblesdale, didn’t run in Oaks
‘IVY CREEK MAY WELL BE A GROUP 1 HORSE’ – flopped in Hampton Court Palace stakes
‘PAPAL BULL NOT BAD AT ALL’ – I admit I’m a huge fan of PB, but with only 1 win out of 4 at 5/4, has to be seen as disappointing
‘TIME ON DIDN’T HAVE TO RUN FAST THIS TIME’ – 1 win from 4 since
‘GALIENT STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR QUEEN’S VASE’ – flopped in Queen’s Vase
‘MOUNTAIN HIGH IS A GROUP 1 HORSE’ – turned out he wasn’t
And the pierce de resistance……….’GEORGE WASHINGTON THE SLOWEST GUINEAS WINNER IN YEARS’ – need I say anything?
EDIT – you think I’m a woman!?!?! Haha – your poor judgement of racehorses reflects your poor judgement of what gender people are ;)
May i ask Bulwark, did you think Royal Ascot was good this year?
(Edited by jackane24 at 12:16 am on Sep. 27, 2006)
Jackane
Not sure why you’ve posted this from Mordins website, but if you’d read some of the threads regarding his opinion/rating of certain horses you’d know he gets slated pretty regularly on here<br>
(Edited by empty wallet at 12:16 am on Sep. 27, 2006)
Well some people actually do follow his ratings, so used his ratings as an example to show that they are about as much use as a chocolate teapot.
trackside528 Posted on 11:36 pm on Sep. 26, 2006
——————————————————————————–<br>Quote: from Bulwark on 6:04 pm on Sep. 26, 2006<br>i couldnt beleive how many idiots were yakking that ouija board was going to route dylan thomas, (who subsequently beat her whilst not looking anywhere near 100%).<br>——————————————————————————–
Dont understand why your saying Dylan Thomas was nowhere near his best in the Irish Champion… personally I am inclined to think that is about as good as the horse is… his irish derby win was impressive but who knows what he beat… <br>
I agree that its hard to know what dylan thomas beat in the irish derby, but visibly the horse had a better action and looked on much better terms with himself than at leaopardstown, he wasnt as bad at leopardstown as he was at york though, where he pulled the whole way.
I actually suspect (like o’brien) that Dylan Thomas is a better horse at 1m2f, however he has looked visibly under par on both starts there.
I give up jackane
Just beacause Mordins are w**k
, doesn’t mean eryone elses are.This is why people like me, EC, TMM and many others on here compile their own
It gives them an edge over the general public who follow Mordins,RPR, Timeform etc,etc
Beleive it or not, i dont need someone to tell me if a horse is good or not.
On a few points about the horses mentioned, Ivy creek showed afine turn of foot behind art deco (who i had that day) at chester and looked to be a very smart horse, however he is by gulch and looks to have all the quirks which most gulch horses have. I wouldnt say hes cack.
Also galient didnt exactly flop in the queens vase, he finished second to a horse who (deliberately looking) hung all over him a furlong out and forced him off the rail position which he had put himself in, and despite the fact that kevin darley picked up a ban, the result was not overturned, which is typical of british stewards really, but to me he was the moral winner.
The bit about george washington makes no sense and i find it hard to beleive that anyone involved in racing would say something as ridiculous and not be sacked.
I actually had a good ascot this year, despite a spell of seconditis, i found it quite enjoyable, however, the group1s, which i like the most (queen anne, st james palace and prince of wales) werent really high class (araafa was good in the SJP but he was always going to win it as he had no serious opposition). Papal bull and red rocks was a good race in the King edward and Yeats was probably the highlight of ascot for me.
Quote: from trackside528 on 1:04 am on Sep. 27, 2006[br]personally, i find mordin interesting reading (comes from a unique perspective),
<br>Certaily does make interesting reading trackside the same as James Willoughby(shame he writes for RP), Simon Rowlands, Ian Dean and a couple others
<br>Might not agree with em, but all produce very interesting stuff
- Total Posts 17716
Quote: from Bulwark on 6:04 pm on Sep. 26, 2006[br].  <br>Bulwark on the otherhand is a horse who i have loved ever since he won me several bets including one at £1400 last year (which for me as a low stakes punter was quite good). Back then i never thought he had the potential which i now beleive he has.
Sgt cecil, IMHO is a more than competent 1m6f horse who can stay on in slowly run races over further and win because he has the best turn of foot. I see him as what he is and dont see him as being anything special. A quick look at all his efforts to date proves this as a true gallop always finds him out.
Bulwark is the younger horse than sgt cecil (and very highly strung), amanda perret threw bulwark in at the deep end in the goodwood cup, and knowing that he likes a fast gallop and his 40/1 price tag i thought id have a little go on him. Bulwark hung and threw away all chance of a place about a furlong out, but look at who he passes with ease before doing so, the bbc had it at a different angle than the one on the racing post site but in the last two furlongs bulwark and yeats were the two strongest travellers, he looked like getting 3rd place possibly 2nd if the incident hadnt occurred.
The racing post reckon, and i fully agree, that bulwark (with his ability to handle a fast gallop and his low current handicap rating) would be an ideal candidate for the melbourne cup (see lonsdale cup analysis on rp site).
At a true pace bulwark is a far stronger horse than sgt cecil (and still improving), the fact that Sgt cecil has had two group2s set up for him this year doesnt really alter that opinion.
So, is it that i dont rate sgt cecil, no. In slow paced staying races sgt cecil is a very good horses and i would think that with the french style of running he would be very well suited to the prix cadran, but if the prix cadran was run at a decent clip (in the absence of yeats), i can almost guarantee that bulwark would do him at a far bigger price. They may both feature in the same races but both are horses with very different skills, the way i see it, one set is paying off better than the other at present, but a fast clip will happen sooner or later and bulwark will have a nice price beside him when it does.
Strange how people can view the same races and come such widely differing conclusions?<br> Sergeant Cecil, imo, is a better horse when he is given a proper test at 2m plus. Although he won the Ebor last season, his built on that when running Millenary close in the Doncaster Cup, and then ran his best race of the season to win the Cesarawitch under 9st 8, not a soft race, and certainly run at a proper racing pace.<br> His first run this season was over an inadequate 12f, his 2nd outing a slowly run 14f where he finished a one paced 2nd.<br> On to the Ascot Gold Cup, run at just a fair pace where he travelled well up to the approach to the straight where he was mullered on the bend, on straightening up he tried to remount his challenge but was hampered by Reefscape anglng across and blocking his run. No way would he have threatend Yeats, but an excelllent run under the circumstances. Next time out over 2m at Sandown, the slow pace was all against him, and he ran reasonably in the circumstances.<br> On then to Goodwood, a course that didn’t play to his strengths, but was just getting into gear when blocked on the inside rail. As a result of this, Bulwark was able to overtake him, before he regained momentum and ran on with enough purpose to finish a couple of lengths up.<br> He then won the Lonsdale by virtue of a decent pace and softer ground, and added the Doncaster Cup over a more suitable 2m2f.<br> That may well be as be good as he is, having said that, he has achieved more, in any one of half a dozen races, than Bulwark has in his lifetime
<br> (Posted halfway through in error)
(Edited by reet hard at 8:35 am on Sep. 27, 2006)
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