- This topic has 100 replies, 19 voices, and was last updated 7 years, 6 months ago by
.
- Posts
I like a couple here.
I’ll definitely bet Beat The Bank, but at 12’s now, might as well eliminate the Antepost risk and wait until final decs now, as he surely can’t shorten much surely. On his summer runs, it seems a fair price.
The one I have bet is Zabeel Prince. Ok, maybe pushing it for the win, but a very encouraging run at Newmarket, and he had excuses too, from top yard, and won’t mind conditions. He just looks massive here at 50’s. I have to take a chance st those odds.
Zabeel Prince 50’s Each Way
With the rain they have had I think this race becomes more of an option for RL now – heavy (soft in places) on the round course and soft (heavy in places) on the straight.
The straight course will be (relatively speaking) the quicker of the two and you will probably need a horse that gets further than a mile.
Raymo lol we are the complete opposite haha i think if he runs he runs here- Gosden has already said if the ground is softer than ideal, he has this as an option. It looks like it will be softer than ideal.
My worry is will he actually even run? Could they just take a pull and run him in the Breeder’s Cup? He does seem to have such a potent turn of foot, that i’d be worried it might be blunted in the ground…other than that, i think he wins this no probs and 4s should be jumped on
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I think you may have inadvertently hit the nail on the head Jack. Breeders Cup looks favourite now!! lol
Maybe we have opposing views and have in a roundabout way come up with the same answer!!
If Roaring Lion turns up in this – and doesn’t shorten too much – I’ll probably be backing him (will start favourite). Not at his best at a mile in the Craven or 2000 Guineas, but shows so much speed at 10f personally got no doubt he’ll be as effective at a mile. He’s a different animal now, grown up. No longer wanders left handed – at least it’s far less pronounced. That trait probably meant connections wanted to keep him to the Stand-side in the first Classic. However, main rivals ended up towards the centre which didn’t suit Roaring Lion – racing alone. Not saying he’d have won, but imo would’ve been closer. Guineas also came off a poor display in the Craven – he’s just in better form now. Is a chance that famous turn of foot won’t be as effective on soft ground, but it was fairly soft in the Racing Post Trophy and did pretty well there – his best two year old run. Looked like winning before immaturity told, faltering close home. As I said – he’s grown up now. In what is a lesser year for milers Roaring Lion’s 10 furlong form appears a fair bit superior.
However there is a chance he’ll miss Champions Day altogether and go straight to the Breeders Cup. So I’ll stay out for now.
Value Is EverythingHopefully he does show up, although ive backed him for the breeders cup classic
I do feel that this idea of him being a different animal from the 19th of april to the 17th of may or even to july are a misconception, yes the wandering left has helped him, but his 3yo record as a miler (although not highly tried) is poor Gosden said after the craven before the guineas that he didnt think he was a miler but needed another run…. so why would he now be a miler the older he gets? His well deserved rating is totally based on his 10f races, its not based on his 8f runs (as a 3yo im talking about its irrelevant at 2) like ive said previously on my thread about the guineas as a race, nothing has came out and won at a mile atall since then,
Hes had one run a month since april, constantly kept on the go since, no interim break, has probably been in training since around the end of feb, thats a long, long old season to then run him on ground he Hates At a distance ges Not As good at Ill heap praise if he manages to win this and happily eat my words
But IMO 100% confident he wont win, i hope he runs but im 50/50 he will show atm, the ground wont be heavy, it will be soft, so its hard for gosden to take him out after saying what hes said already
Laurens will win this to top off an already impressive season.
On the tiredness/freshness view Ham, he’s only had one more run than Laurens. Considering he wasn’t at the races on his seasonal debut- running terribly, i don’t think there’s much of a difference between him and Laurens. Actually, Laurens is running back 2 weeks later compared to his month off.
I agree with what Ginge has said. Would back him, if i knew he was going. Has handled g/s as a 2yo and has straightened out since then so he should be even more effective now on softer going arguably. The point you make Ginge on him being kept away from the main protaganists in the guineas is an interesting one.
As much as i really like Laurens, am enjoying the fact her owners being ballsy, i do think she will finally need to show that she’s got a good bit left under the bonnet. As even if you take 11s shot Lightning Spear, on her best form, he runs her close at the very least.
I would say Addeybb is the main one i can’t quite understand the price of; OK he likes soft ground and the milers seem poor enough, but, his form doesn’t stack up for me. He beat Lord Glitters impressively enough but in receipt of 8lbs. Beating Stormy Antartic also wouldn’t set me alight.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!To get him ready for the craven even if he wasnt fully wound up would still mean he was on the go for atleast a while before, Not running for a month doesnt actually mean hes had a break in terms of work, where as Laurens had over a 2 month break in the warmest/firmest ground part of the season, she would have been let off some work, the amount of runs doesnt bother me, you could almost say her yorkshire oaks run was a prep (everyones saying she didnt stay, which i agree she didnt fully, BUT she still looked like she needed the run to me), its the fact that roaring lions been ticking along for 8 months, thats a long time without letting him wind down
If this was over 10f on good ground, even though laurens is a diane winner, i have no doubt in my mind roaring lion would win, but this is totally, totally different, wouldnt be surprised if his left sided quirkiness came back out under pressure back at a mile on soft ground…
The guineas as a race was useless this year round bar the winner who looked by far the best miler at the time, everything in behind has not maintained group 1 form over a mile, so if he couldnt do it then, i dont see why would he do it now.
Hes a worthy fav for this and a top class horse, will be some feat if he can win this. Makes sense to let him take his chance, its not going to do his stud fee any damage atall, even if laurens doesnt win (she will :yahoo:) ill be surprised if he does, could have a small place lay on him on the day at a rediculous price as these animals are better than the horses in the guineas…
Lightning Spear is big, but that’s just because he’s in the same ownership as Roaring Lion and only one of the two is likely to run. Looking at today’s markets, RL is shortening and (probably importantly) LS is also lengthening on betfair to imo three times what he’d be if taking his chance. So I think we can say the decision has now been made – Roaring Lion runs!
I’m on!
Bit of 7/2 left with Paddy Power I believe.
Can see him going off nearer 7/4.Value Is EverythingHam, my point re Laurens is backing up quite soon would probably be a slight negative to me as well, if we are trying to find slight doubts! Especially since this is clearly an afterthought. Mind you, i would take her ahead of Recoletos for sure.
I can see your view on the 8months with no break, its possible some horses will underperform that have been on the go for awhile. Also, Gustav Klimpt has ran fairly well over a mile this year since the Guineas, but yes in general the form hasn’t been up to much. As Ginge pointed out, there are valid reasons for RL to have finished closer to Saxon…
Also Ham, on strict form Laurens probably/arguably hasn’t great mile form either- i think shes hidign a bit up her sleeve of course!
If he does go off 7/4 or shorter, he could be worth a small lay if it stays pretty soft, i won’t lie, it would be all based on a price.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Ham, surely your concerns over RL being fatigued etc makes your RL bet in the BC Classic illogical?
The distance of this race is not really 8 Furlongs in truth. Ascot is a stiff finish, and with it being soft ground, stamina demands i would imagine would make it feel more like 9 Furlongs. Not that i’ve a strong opinion on RL one way or the other, just thought i’d mention that
It certainly wasn’t a great Guineas, ham. Although there are only two horses that have disappointed, Tip Two Win and Elarqam and they aren’t as bad as you might think.
TTW finished 1 1/2 lengths behind Saxon Warrior at Newmarket and has only really had one opportunity to show his form since May. Running a bit below his best when beaten around 3 3/4 lengths in the St James’s Palace on firmer ground. May be he’s at his best on good and good-soft? Something evedently amiss only other start at Goodwood. To judge the Guineas on Tip Two Win is flimsy. Ditto Elarqam…
Mark Johnston horses are possibly more inconsistent than many trainers and Elarqam disappointed in the Irish Guineas. Sometimes wonder whether Johnston also struggles with runners overseas?
Also beaten in Salisbury’s Sovereign Stakes (although even at his best wouldn’t have beaten the winner Plumatic who went on to be just 1 1/2 lengths behind Recoletos in the Group 1 Moulin). However, between the two Elarqam was 3rd in the Group 2 Sky Bet York Stakes. At the time it looked a poor run by the 5/4 favourite, two necks (around 1/4 length) behind the winner; but was it so bad? It’s is a race that looks far better now. Winner Thundering Blue beaten only 3 3/4 lengths by Roaring Lion in the Group 1 International on his next start, just 1/2 length behind Poets Word (and in front of Saxon Warrior). Thundering Blue then won a good race at Stokholm before going down by a length in the Group 1 Canadian International. Elarqam finished just over 2 lengths behind Saxon Warrior. So on York form if Elarqam is a 1/4 of a length worse horse than Thundering Blue then I think it actually franks the Guineas form.Other than those two, in the Guineas you’ve got:
Winner Saxon Warrior himself.
Third Masar who went on to win the Derby over 12f; worth saying again – The Derby.
Fifth Roaring Lion who was third at Epsom before winning three top 10f races – beating Saxon Warrior in two of them.
Sixth Gustav Klimt who although hasn’t “won”, was beaten further at Newmarket than he has been in any of six Group 1’s since May (including by less than a length in both St James’s Palace Stakes and 6f Sprint Cup.
And seventh James Garfield – beaten over 4 lengths by Saxon Warrior and only 1/2 length in the 6f110yrds Group 1 Prix Maurice De Gheest.Working out the Guineas by concentrating on winners and/or what’s happened at a mile gives a very selective view of this particular Guineas. Yes, some have improved over further and shorter; but whatever the form is it is not “useless”.
Value Is EverythingExcellent point Kev.
Roaring Lion didn’t stay in the Derby and has so far been at his best at 10f on a sound surface. I’d have had more doubt about him being as effective (staying) in a strongly run soft ground Champion Stakes race than I would in a soft ground QEII.Value Is EverythingIts not just the long season alone kev, it is a factor though, a drop in trip on sluggish ground that he has a dislike for and for a horse who the trainer has said “is not a miler” i just think all of it together is a big ask
10f spin round the classic in a dire renewal at 16/1 for small stakes isnt a confident selection…. so in far from confident in any way that he will win that lol
Theres a misconception about distances alone, 8f on soft ground is NOT the same as 10f on good, it isnt even close, to the horses lungs it might feel that way but that does not nake up the dislike for the trip and ground and absolutely does not mean he can show the same form
If what you said about the stiff mile rings true, “hupothetically” feeling like his optimum 10f trip, then thats even more reason to suggest he wont get home on the ground…
And ginge, to reply back to that as simply as i can, the guineas is the premier 8f race of the season for a 3yo as you know, yes theyll be horses in there who need stepped up and will come on a tonne for it, BUT as far as anything progressing from a mile NOTHING has won a race at a mile from that race in may… and im not talking about group 1s, any 8f race atall, down to group 3 level… so as far as the division is concerned at a MILE (not mentioning anything atall about anything stepping up) its been poor, however, its been a relatively good guineas for middle distance types, masar probably would have won another group 1 etc and roaring lions about as good as it gets….
Im not knocking roaring lion in the slightest, just at a mile…
Like i said if im wrong im wrong ill be happy to give him the credit, but theres nothing atall in his 8f form that sais he could win a good renewal of this, on what hes done elsewhere is obviously why he will be a clear fav
Forgot to add ginge : elarqaam and tip to win are utterly useless.
Theres a misconception about distances alone, 8f on soft ground is NOT the same as 10f on good, it isnt even close, to the horses lungs it might feel that way but that does not nake up the dislike for the trip and ground and absolutely does not mean he can show the same form
No “misconception” ham,
You’re right that 8f on soft is “NOT the same” as 10f on good.
But the point is a strongly run 10f on soft ground over a stiff course is a greater test of stamina than a strongly run 10f on good-firm on a lesser testing course. ie A strongly run Champion Stakes will be a far greater test of stamina than any of his 10f Group 1 victories… And remember he was outstayed in the Derby. Therefore, doubt whether he’ll be at his best if running in the Champion Stakes. It does not mean he’ll definitely not be as effective, it just means there’s a doubt and therefore has not got as much chance than would be the case in a Champion Stakes run on good-firm.Of course to be effective at all (over any distance) on soft ground – a horse needs to actually act on the surface. Yes, there is a chance Roaring Lion will not be effective on soft FULL STOP – has an action that may (only “may”) be at its best on a sound surface (good or firmer). But he was not beaten in the Racing Post Trophy because of the ground. In fact quickened very well on the softest surface he’s raced on, before inexperience told close home. So although we don’t know for definite that he’ll act on soft, it is only one more step up from good-soft. Good-soft being the surface he put up the equal second best Timeform rating put up by any European two year old last year; and this by an immature two year old. Indeed the only European two year old with a higher rating was a particularly mature one, who’d had nearly three times as many runs.
So IF, that’s IF he acts on soft…
Looking at the way Roaring Lion wins races he’s suited by a test of speed at that 10f trip. ie Sectionals/speed he’s put up at 10f on a sound surface around faster tracks strongly suggests he’ll be as effective at a mile given a stamina test at that mile trip. Or to put it another way… As far as stamina goes – softer ground brings about a greater test of stamina and therefore a strongly run mile on soft ground at a stiff course is closer (not the same but “closer”) to the stamina test of a slowish run 10f on good-firm.
Value Is EverythingI agree regarding the first point ginge of course, 10f on soft definitely wouldnt suit but i dont think that justifies bringing him back to a mile, just take him to merica, he doesnt Need To run here when it wont suit him… i of course could be totally wrong, i guess we will know tomorrow firstly and after the race secondly if he runs
I have nothing else to say in regards to it other than good luck lads, youll need it
I would pull him out and wait for America, running here he could lose and bottom him out with the breeders cup only two weeks away. The plan would have been the Champion Stakes if the going was dry. I understand the stamina/distance argument but if he don’t act on soft he won’t win anyway. I’ve just stuck a fiver on him winning the Classic at 16’s. Come on Gosden you know it makes sense.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.