September 17, 2018 at 15:21 #1375223
After my Saxon Warrior bet’s gone down am going to keep out of this for a while longer. Recoletos isn’t bad value on “form”, but – as it stands – none of this lot would be capable of winning an average renewal so may be best to look for something likely to progress. Recoletos’s form although the best of these imo isn’t progressing. Chance will also be compromised if there’s a lack of pace… And not sure he’s as effective in Britain either. Expert Eye didn’t have the best of runs when placed behind Recoletos, has home advantage this time and is one of the most likely to show improvement. Trouble is am doubtful about his effectiveness on a soft surface, so not an ante-post proposition this far out. Lightning Spear goes on anything, although not sure a test of stamina (soft) would be ideal. Is very much over-priced if he were to run. But that’s the point of the 12/1 tempting punters in. Judged by trainer’s comments he’ll be going abroad; crazy when considering he’s not a good traveller and suspect there’ll be a change of plan. If not then it’s possible a change of plan could be on the cards for owner-companion Roaring Lion. Gosden will imo have Cracksman for the Champion. RL has speed enough to be equally effective at a mile and not sure to stay 1m2f on soft ground (although action suggests will be at his very best on a sound surface anyway). Their other stable companion Without Parole ran a much better race than of late; although 6th was only beaten a little more than 2 1/2 lengths by Recoletos. Probably not quite good enough to win this. One at a massive price am keeping my eye on is Saxon Warrior’s stable companion Gustav Klimt. After being quite dismissive of his chances earlier in the season. If he can run right up to his previous best to get within 3/4 length of The Tin Man over a vastly inadequate 6f (badly outpaced early and then stayed on)… Is it possible there’s more improvement to come back at a mile? Or was he just flattered; in a favourable position in an overly strongly run race? 25/1, but Foret could also be an alternative target. Those on Lord Glitters at big prices have done well, but now possibly the worst value of all @ 8/1. Better than recent USA run, but his form is exposed as just short of top class. On two of this season’s form lines he’s about the same horse as Beat The Bank… And Accidental Agent has a (possibly fortunate) verdict over both of them; AA and BTB available at almost double the price. Even with a good course record it’ll be a poor QEII if Lord Glitters wins. I’d be interested in Lincoln winner Addeybb if getting softish ground, but he’ll need it so best to wait. Beat Stormy Atlantic further in the Bet365 than Beat The Bank did in the Celebration Mile… And the Haggas horse is fresh and lightly raced enough to have more improvement in him. Market could still change enormously before off time.value is everythingOctober 12, 2018 at 16:44 #1377111
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Milers this year not all that and take a chance that this horse drop back in trip go for it
ROARING LION 5/1
Been one of best horses this year at 1m2 but a strong run 1m should not bother him got a feeling he could run here instead of champion stakesOctober 15, 2018 at 17:55 #1377470
Taking the ground into account I have backed CENTURY DREAM at 20/1 and ADDEYBB at 8/1.
Century Dream is a massive price and will love the ground and IMO has been running on ground to firm for him pretty much all season and still ran well in his last three! 20/1 HUUUUGGEE!!
Addeybb has also been crying out for the ground to soften up and providing he is primed for this will go close!
If you fancy LG then you have to give the two aforementioned a big chance too with the formlines tying in!!
I can’t see RL running in this Recoletos IMO wants further. EE is unreliable.BTB and LS are consistent enough but IMO not good enough to win this and WP will hate the ground!
I know loads of you wont agree with this but I am a layer of the front three currently Recoletos RL and LG for the above mentioned reasons and fully expect the prices to change massively come Saturday.
Good Luck GuysOctober 15, 2018 at 22:57 #1377501
I quite like your Century Dream pick Raymo at the prices…
Why don’t you think Roaring Lion will run here? If he runs this weekend i think its here. Ground would be my main question mark, i’d fear it might blunt some of that turn of foot.
However, in saying that i think he’s streets ahead of this ability + form wise.
I’d be keen to take Recoletos on, i think he’s a little overrated.
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!October 15, 2018 at 23:31 #1377503
I have to disagree Jack re Roaring Lion. I think if he runs here he runs in the Champion Stakes.
He hasn’t run over a mile since the Guineas and I don’t see the point in him dropping back in trip and I think Johhny G may think the same.October 16, 2018 at 00:21 #1377509
Venture to CognacModerator
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I like a couple here.
I’ll definitely bet Beat The Bank, but at 12’s now, might as well eliminate the Antepost risk and wait until final decs now, as he surely can’t shorten much surely. On his summer runs, it seems a fair price.
The one I have bet is Zabeel Prince. Ok, maybe pushing it for the win, but a very encouraging run at Newmarket, and he had excuses too, from top yard, and won’t mind conditions. He just looks massive here at 50’s. I have to take a chance st those odds.
Zabeel Prince 50’s Each WayOctober 16, 2018 at 01:22 #1377517
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With the rain they have had I think this race becomes more of an option for RL now – heavy (soft in places) on the round course and soft (heavy in places) on the straight.
The straight course will be (relatively speaking) the quicker of the two and you will probably need a horse that gets further than a mile.October 16, 2018 at 08:37 #1377519
Raymo lol we are the complete opposite haha i think if he runs he runs here- Gosden has already said if the ground is softer than ideal, he has this as an option. It looks like it will be softer than ideal.
My worry is will he actually even run? Could they just take a pull and run him in the Breeder’s Cup? He does seem to have such a potent turn of foot, that i’d be worried it might be blunted in the ground…other than that, i think he wins this no probs and 4s should be jumped on
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!October 16, 2018 at 17:58 #1377551
I think you may have inadvertently hit the nail on the head Jack. Breeders Cup looks favourite now!! lol
Maybe we have opposing views and have in a roundabout way come up with the same answer!!October 16, 2018 at 21:27 #1377569
If Roaring Lion turns up in this – and doesn’t shorten too much – I’ll probably be backing him (will start favourite). Not at his best at a mile in the Craven or 2000 Guineas, but shows so much speed at 10f personally got no doubt he’ll be as effective at a mile. He’s a different animal now, grown up. No longer wanders left handed – at least it’s far less pronounced. That trait probably meant connections wanted to keep him to the Stand-side in the first Classic. However, main rivals ended up towards the centre which didn’t suit Roaring Lion – racing alone. Not saying he’d have won, but imo would’ve been closer. Guineas also came off a poor display in the Craven – he’s just in better form now. Is a chance that famous turn of foot won’t be as effective on soft ground, but it was fairly soft in the Racing Post Trophy and did pretty well there – his best two year old run. Looked like winning before immaturity told, faltering close home. As I said – he’s grown up now. In what is a lesser year for milers Roaring Lion’s 10 furlong form appears a fair bit superior.
However there is a chance he’ll miss Champions Day altogether and go straight to the Breeders Cup. So I’ll stay out for now.value is everythingOctober 16, 2018 at 23:53 #1377575
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Hopefully he does show up, although ive backed him for the breeders cup classic
I do feel that this idea of him being a different animal from the 19th of april to the 17th of may or even to july are a misconception, yes the wandering left has helped him, but his 3yo record as a miler (although not highly tried) is poor Gosden said after the craven before the guineas that he didnt think he was a miler but needed another run…. so why would he now be a miler the older he gets? His well deserved rating is totally based on his 10f races, its not based on his 8f runs (as a 3yo im talking about its irrelevant at 2) like ive said previously on my thread about the guineas as a race, nothing has came out and won at a mile atall since then,
Hes had one run a month since april, constantly kept on the go since, no interim break, has probably been in training since around the end of feb, thats a long, long old season to then run him on ground he Hates At a distance ges Not As good at Ill heap praise if he manages to win this and happily eat my words
But IMO 100% confident he wont win, i hope he runs but im 50/50 he will show atm, the ground wont be heavy, it will be soft, so its hard for gosden to take him out after saying what hes said already
Laurens will win this to top off an already impressive season.October 17, 2018 at 08:48 #1377587
On the tiredness/freshness view Ham, he’s only had one more run than Laurens. Considering he wasn’t at the races on his seasonal debut- running terribly, i don’t think there’s much of a difference between him and Laurens. Actually, Laurens is running back 2 weeks later compared to his month off.
I agree with what Ginge has said. Would back him, if i knew he was going. Has handled g/s as a 2yo and has straightened out since then so he should be even more effective now on softer going arguably. The point you make Ginge on him being kept away from the main protaganists in the guineas is an interesting one.
As much as i really like Laurens, am enjoying the fact her owners being ballsy, i do think she will finally need to show that she’s got a good bit left under the bonnet. As even if you take 11s shot Lightning Spear, on her best form, he runs her close at the very least.
I would say Addeybb is the main one i can’t quite understand the price of; OK he likes soft ground and the milers seem poor enough, but, his form doesn’t stack up for me. He beat Lord Glitters impressively enough but in receipt of 8lbs. Beating Stormy Antartic also wouldn’t set me alight.
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!October 17, 2018 at 10:30 #1377598
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To get him ready for the craven even if he wasnt fully wound up would still mean he was on the go for atleast a while before, Not running for a month doesnt actually mean hes had a break in terms of work, where as Laurens had over a 2 month break in the warmest/firmest ground part of the season, she would have been let off some work, the amount of runs doesnt bother me, you could almost say her yorkshire oaks run was a prep (everyones saying she didnt stay, which i agree she didnt fully, BUT she still looked like she needed the run to me), its the fact that roaring lions been ticking along for 8 months, thats a long time without letting him wind down
If this was over 10f on good ground, even though laurens is a diane winner, i have no doubt in my mind roaring lion would win, but this is totally, totally different, wouldnt be surprised if his left sided quirkiness came back out under pressure back at a mile on soft ground…
The guineas as a race was useless this year round bar the winner who looked by far the best miler at the time, everything in behind has not maintained group 1 form over a mile, so if he couldnt do it then, i dont see why would he do it now.
Hes a worthy fav for this and a top class horse, will be some feat if he can win this. Makes sense to let him take his chance, its not going to do his stud fee any damage atall, even if laurens doesnt win (she will :yahoo:) ill be surprised if he does, could have a small place lay on him on the day at a rediculous price as these animals are better than the horses in the guineas…October 17, 2018 at 10:37 #1377600
Lightning Spear is big, but that’s just because he’s in the same ownership as Roaring Lion and only one of the two is likely to run. Looking at today’s markets, RL is shortening and (probably importantly) LS is also lengthening on betfair to imo three times what he’d be if taking his chance. So I think we can say the decision has now been made – Roaring Lion runs!
Bit of 7/2 left with Paddy Power I believe.
Can see him going off nearer 7/4.value is everythingOctober 17, 2018 at 11:29 #1377616
Ham, my point re Laurens is backing up quite soon would probably be a slight negative to me as well, if we are trying to find slight doubts! Especially since this is clearly an afterthought. Mind you, i would take her ahead of Recoletos for sure.
I can see your view on the 8months with no break, its possible some horses will underperform that have been on the go for awhile. Also, Gustav Klimpt has ran fairly well over a mile this year since the Guineas, but yes in general the form hasn’t been up to much. As Ginge pointed out, there are valid reasons for RL to have finished closer to Saxon…
Also Ham, on strict form Laurens probably/arguably hasn’t great mile form either- i think shes hidign a bit up her sleeve of course!
If he does go off 7/4 or shorter, he could be worth a small lay if it stays pretty soft, i won’t lie, it would be all based on a price.
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!
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