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I’ve had a saver on Addeybb, Jack.
On Goodwood Celebration Mile form Beat The Bank is less than a 3/4 length better horse than Stormy Antarctic.
On Woodbine Mile form Oscar Performance is only a 1 3/4 lengths better horse than Stormy Antarctic, OP is America’s best turf mile horse – only available at a best priced 7/1 for the Breeders Cup Mile.
On Munich form Benbatl is only a 2 3/4 lengths better horse than Stormy Antarctic.
On Sandown Mile form Addeybb is a 2 3/4 lengths better horse than Stormy Antarctic.
If Benbatl or Oscar Performance were in this race what would their odds be?
Lord Glitters gave Addeybb 8 lbs in the Lincoln. But he won with more to spare than the 2 3/4 lengths winning margin suggests. Didn’t come under serious pressure to go clear and then eased. imo Deserves to be rated at least as good as Lord Glitters… But it is not only about how good a horse currently is, it’s also the potential for improvement. Lord Glitters is something of an Ascot specialist and therefore pretty much certain to run his race; but seems to have found his level after over double the number of runs of Addeybb. Addeybb is lightly raced and progressive, showed improved form on each of his last three soft surface starts. Another six months has passed since that last soft run, plenty of time to improve again. More likely to do so and if both progress is more likely to show the greater improvement. If I hadn’t wasted money on Saxon Warrior he’d be more than a saver.Take Roaring Lion out of this race and Recoletos might just (and only just) be best of the rest, but there’s only a few pounds between most of this field and therefore – other than RL – I’m looking for progressive types and is possible Addeybb could run a career best by 7 lbs+. If that is the case could even challenge a top form Roaring Lion.
Value Is EverythingIt is yet to be proven, ham/nathan. Roaring Lion could be equally effective at a soft ground Ascot mile.
I don’t understand why someone would argue he should not run on soft going and then say he should go for the Breeders Cup Classic – on dirt.
Roaring Lion only needs to run to form to post the best mile performance of the year.
Could yet end up being crowned both the best miler and the best middle distance horse of 2018.
So imo there’s plenty to race for.
Value Is EverythingSoft, Heavy in places. Mid teens and dry for the week. There’s every chance we are seeing soft, good to soft in places or even better. Ascot drains well…
Maybe i am forgetting a lot of the mile division are a bad bunch this year and underestimating the form of Addeybb in that, i don’t rate Beat The Bank or Stormy Atlantic very highly. Alright he’s beat SA convincingly. If RP website is to believed, Lads are 6’s about Laurens and 6s about Addeybb- i know which i’d rather at the weights, even if she hasn’t stepped into open company yet.
I still favour RL for this + fingers crossed he goes!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Roaring Lion only needs to run to form to post the best mile performance of the year.
No, he needs to run his 10f form to put a good performance in, something he has never done over a mile…. alpha centauris marois win is the best mile performance of the year by some way IMO i doubt roaring lion will top that this weekend, even if he were to win, i doubt anything will top it
Roaring Lion is rated 130 by Timeform, ham.
They rate Alpha Centauri 128.
Of course Roaring Lion has not yet done it at a mile, point am making is he only needs to run to form in order to put up the best mile performance of the year. Fillies do not need to put up the “best performance” in a race to win it, because of their 3 lb allowance (had Alpha been in the field she’d have been rated 1 lb ahead of Roaring Lion in the race itself).Value Is EverythingI get that, but again, why would he show the same form at a mile? How many horses need a mile as a 2yo, then at the start of the 3yo season the trainer sais hes not a miler, go on to perform as a top, top class 10f Animal, then at the very end of there 3yo season, drop him back and say the mile should be fine? Maybe im blinded by something, but it seems peculiar to me, the owner seemed to WANT him to run here when he didnt need to if conditions didnt suit…. which they dont
Im happy he runs as im intrigued to know how he fares up against the likes of laurens, recoletos and the other best milers this season… aside from my bet on laurens ill have a small amount on a place lay which will be rediculously short so wont do too much damage if im wrong.
Fascinating stuff
Without wishing to go over the whole thing again, ham – this is my last post on the subject. LOL
Many two year olds look as though they’re going to be middle distance horses and then prove at least equally effective at a mile. This very season O’Brien thought they had a horse who’d win the triple crown – be effective at 1m6f – only to fail at 12f and not win beyond a mile.
Gosden said Roaring Lion would need further than a mile, but that was earlier in the season.
At that time he probably thought RL would stay the Derby distance – I did too! At that time I wouldn’t have thought I would be backing him for the QEII.Too much is made of what trainers once thought, when a lot of evidence has come to light since the statement was made. Their opinions have in all probability changed – just like our opinions change with evidence. Since the early season RL has proven he does not stay 12f and proven that speed is his asset when racing at 10f. ie If stamina was his asset at 10f there’d be a good chance he’d be fully effective at 12f. But in this particular case speed is his asset at 10f and therefore a good chance he’ll be effective at 8f… Especially when stamina is at a premium at this lesser trip (stiff course, soft ground mile)… Of course as long as he acts on soft which is yet to be proven. Murphy may also need to alter tactics a little in order to achieve the same rating, because RL’s turn of foot may not be as effective at a mile and/or in soft conditions.
Value Is EverythingHe hasnt been effective at 8 and has not shown the turn of foot, so basically what your saying is in the guineas on may 5th the race totally did not run to suit, he had an absolute nightmare oassage, the rail was against him and in 12 days he developed a vicious turn of foot at york over 10.5f that he did not have 12 days before? Its such a flawed arguement… hes not a different horse, hes just better over 10….
This is going on a bit lol so lets just see, i dont think its the worst idea running him here, i do think it was the owners idea rather than the trainers though
Gosden said: “I’ve spoken to the owner and the decision has been taken to run Roaring Lion in the QEII. I didn’t walk the track this morning but got updates from the clerk of the course and Roaring Lion will go the mile route on Saturday.”
Murphy said: “He’s an exceptional horse and every time I ride him I need to keep that in mind. Horses like him are so hard to get your hands on and he will have no trouble coming back in trip.
“If you roll back the clock to the 2,000 Guineas, clearly he’s proven now that he’s a much better horse than Saxon Warrior. If you could run the Guineas again tomorrow morning, at the stage he is now, I think he would win. He’s a different horse now to what he was in May.”
Bullish anyway. But sure you’d have to be!
Fascinating race!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!WHAT DO I KNOW???? NADA
Roaring Lion runs here.
I am massively surprised!!
Maybe Johnny G statement gives us a clue re the owners made the decision!!No, ham.
You’re forgetting what happened in the Craven, when he just wasn’t ready – either mentally and/or physically. In fact, the difference in RL’s form between the Craven and Guineas is a lot more than Guineas to Dante. Did well to progress as much as he did between first and second starts. Although impressive in the way he came clear to win the Dante, the standard of rivals weren’t good by Dante standards. ie Dante second Mildenburger hasn’t run since but was coming off a half length listed victory. Third Zabriske done nothing in many starts. Fourth Merlin Magic went there from a handicap win off a mark of 88. Actual form needed to show that 4 1/2 lengths victory wasn’t a great deal different to what was achieved with 5th in the Guineas.I’ve already said Roaring Lion would not have won the Guineas even with the best of runs, but I do believe he’d have been a little closer. You might be right that Roaring Lion is best at 10f, but I think the reason for him being not at his very best in the Guineas (given the speed he shows at 10f) is more likely he just wasn’t in the same form in May. In the Craven over 9 lengths behind Masar; in the Guineas 3/4 length behind the same horse over the same trip. Progressing more than 8 lengths in just two weeks is imo a bloody lot! What do you expect?
Had RL been kept at a mile after the Guineas, that progression is imo highly likely to have continued.
We’ll see.
Value Is EverythingRoaring Lion has raced against saxon warrior 6 times finishing in front four of those, his two defeats came out a mile.Now read into that what you like, yes he has matured,but at current prices i will be looking elsewhere for my few shillings. I will gladly do a few bob,will be attending the meeting and can say i saw a true champion ‘live’
It is similar sentiments from me Nwalton.
I think Roaring Lion will Win, but my money will be on Addeybb at 8-1
I’m in the Roaring Lion camp for this, even though I love Laurens to bits. RL has done nothing but improve all year. I think he’ll love the ground, and also think he’s going to put up a very big figure on Saturday.
I have him in a few doubles with Cracksman, at various prices from 4’s down to 5-2.
Hills appear to be 1/5 at 5 places for this race. Price contraction isn’t shabby at the time of typing.
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