Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe 2009

[Stacelita]

My version of arc odds all in run
Stacelita – 5/2
Fame and Glory – 5/1
Conduit – 11/2
Youmzain – 7/1
Cavalryman – 10/1
Ask – 16/1
Sariska – 20/1
Vision D E-tat 22/1
Casual Conquest 40 – 1
100/1 bar in other words forget it!

[Zarkava]

So that’s the 2nd, 3rd and 4th from the Irish Derby beaten with the latter 2 being beaten in Group 3s

Dire year for middle-distance 3yos, dire.

Which only helps FAG IMHO. If it;s as weak an Arc as you say, he”ll take some beating.

I’d happily take Alwaary and Harbinger over Fame And Glory (not that they’re likely to turn up). I’ll also take Conduit, Vision D’Etat and Ask over Fame And Glory.

[Euro]

I’d happily take Alwaary and Harbinger over Fame And Glory (not that they’re likely to turn up). I’ll also take Conduit, Vision D’Etat and Ask over Fame And Glory.

That’s the Alwaary who was beaten by Dr Freemantle and the Conduit who is comfortably held by F&G on lines through Rip and STS is it? I’ll give you 33/1 that the latter three all finish ahead of Fame in the Arc.

[Zarkava]

I’d happily take Alwaary and Harbinger over Fame And Glory (not that they’re likely to turn up). I’ll also take Conduit, Vision D’Etat and Ask over Fame And Glory.

You clearly haven’t got a [expletive] clue.

You’re so pathetic.

[MDeering]

I’d happily take Alwaary and Harbinger over Fame And Glory (not that they’re likely to turn up). I’ll also take Conduit, Vision D’Etat and Ask over Fame And Glory.

You clearly haven’t got a [expletive] clue.

I think he deserves to voice his opinion without being questioned of his mental capacity, don’t you? It’s not a stupid proposition – FaG is not a world beater.

And if you’re going to be so crass and rude, at least back it up with a reason why he doesn’t have a [expletive] clue. No?

[Stacelita]

i don’t know how any 1 can justify backing exposed below top class horses like Ask, Vision detat Casual Conquest who would need to find yet unseen improvement to win/place they are dreadful value especially place odds which most liely won’t happen anyway.
youmzain istheone to back at bigger and better/similar odds than those mentioned. He loves the track loves a fast gallop has good acceleration loves cut in the ground,doesn’t win the races his abilities deserves him to but if hes fit will give any1 a race. However having seen all of thehorses stacelita is the one for me unexposed who knowshowgoodshe is with cutin theground has shown ready speed though on faster ground althoughtheform is questionable butthat doesn’t undermine her she’s done it easily enough will race off bottom weight with improvement likely with and extra furlong or so.

[Euro]

And if you’re going to be so crass and rude, at least back it up with a reason why he doesn’t have a [expletive] clue. No?

I did already in my edit. On what formlines has Conduit got a hope in hell of beating Fame and Glory? The answer is none. And sometimes on forums such as these people who spout such gibberish will on occasion get called on it.

[Euro]

It’s not a stupid proposition – FaG is not a world beater.

That’s a fact is it? Unlike the exposed plodders he mentioned this horse is still open to improvement over 12f. And a race like the Arc is just the contest to bring it out.

[Zarkava]

And if you’re going to be so crass and rude, at least back it up with a reason why he doesn’t have a [expletive] clue. No?

I did already in my edit. On what formlines has Conduit got a hope in hell of beating Fame and Glory? The answer is none. And sometimes on forums such as these people who spout such gibberish will on occasion get called on it.

Erm…

1 Fame And Glory 8/11F 3 9-0 A P O’Brien
2

5

Golden Sword 11/1 3 9-0 A P O’Brien

So Fame And Glory beat him by 5 lengths…

1 Conduit (IRE) 13/8F 4 9-7 Sir Michael Stoute
2 1¾ Tartan Bearer (IRE) 7/2 4 9-7 Sir Michael Stoute
3 hd Ask 9/1 6 9-7 Sir Michael Stoute
4 2¼ Alwaary (USA) 12/1 3 8-9 J H M Gosden
5 4 Golden Sword 9/2 3 8-9 A P O’Brien

And Conduit beat him by 8 1/4 lengths…

So the question is, which is bigger; 5 or 8 1/4? You could even take the front 2 out of the result and Ask would still be roughly 1 1/2 lengths better on formlines. And I don’t care how exposed they are, a good exposed horse will always beat an average unexposed horse.

That’s the Alwaary who was beaten by Dr Freemantle and the Conduit who is comfortably held by F&G on lines through Rip and STS is it? I’ll give you 33/1 that the latter three all finish ahead of Fame in the Arc.

Hehe such a snake, don’t even bother to tell anyone you edited it.

I won’t even bother replying to the bit about Dr Fremantle beating Alwaary. That’s bending race analysis to the extreme. Asides the bleedin’ obvious from that race, don’t suppose you care that the form’s worked out extremely well. Also don’t suppose you care that the only 3yos to win that race in the past 15 years were trained by Mark Johnston. Also don’t suppose you care that he was still a very young horse then and still is.

As for Conduit, how about you use form over the actual Arc trip? It’s a simple yes or no – in fact it’s not even that since it’s a fact. On 12 furlong form, Conduit in the form book is over 3 lengths superior to Fame And Glory.

Fame And Glory is a mid-March foal and an early May foal like Alwaary is open to far more improvement than a mid-March foal at this time of year. Actually Golden Sword is a late-April foal going off memory so theoretically he should have improved a lot between the Irish Derby and King George.

The King George says Fame And Glory is better than Alwaary by 1 length and like I said, if these 2 lined up tomorrow with a pacemaker I’d back Alwaary in a shot. The only horse I wouldn’t be confident betting against would be Harbinger and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Harbinger and Alwaary going from the Voltigeur onto the Niel or directly to the Arc.

Oh, of course, the odds you offered! Almost forgot. 33/1 on Conduit, Alwaary and who finishing ahead of Fame And Glory? Harbinger? Ok, if all 3 are declared to run in the Arc, regardless of what happens between now and then I’ll have £20 on that. Of course you won’t pay up, I fully expect that, but at least you won’t be able to come on here again and have anyone pay attention to you.

[Anonymous]

And if you’re going to be so crass and rude, at least back it up with a reason why he doesn’t have a [expletive] clue. No?

I did already in my edit. On what formlines has Conduit got a hope in hell of beating Fame and Glory? The answer is none. And sometimes on forums such as these people who spout such gibberish will on occasion get called on it.

Mate whe it comes to hose racing just because A beats C and C beats B ot doesn’t mean A is going to beat B.

Fame and Glory beat what? Golden Sword and Mourayan and what a fine job they did of franking the form

As we saw in the Derby Fame and Glory lacked the final kick to really trouble Sea the Stars and that will be his downfall in the Arc IMO.

You ask what chance Conduit would have of beating him….well he wouldn’t be anywhere near his best yet he’s got a great turn of foot, stays every yard of 1m4f and he is probably the best 4 year olld in training. The 3 yo form over middle distance to date isn’t worth a pinch of **** and I would be asking what piece of form has Fame and Glory got that would put him in the same league as Conduit…….the Irish friggin Derby? that’s the worse Classic forline I’ve seen in years

[thehorsesmouth]

Just stirring the pot here fist

So you’re saying that you think Fame And Glory’s form is dire, and he won a dire classic as easy as you’ll see, so his form is crap?!

Yet Sariska wins a worse Classic with ease and she’s a superstar?!

Personally, I think Sariska is a cut above the other 3 yo fillies but I doubt she will win an Arc.

Fame And Glory could have beaten Golden Sword by 10 lengths, so whoever used the King George as a formline between Conduit and Fame And Glory is dillusional. That’s like saying Sariska is only 3 lengths better than Roses For The Lady, when we all know that it’s probably closer to 3o lengths between the pair.

[Stacelita]

I wouldn’t back Sariska against Da re mi in the Yorkshire oaks forget the arc

[towerto]

i have the feeling that sariska arc odd will be very big after yorkshire oaks

[Our Vic]

:? i don’t know how any 1 can justify backing exposed below top class horses like Ask, Vision detat Casual Conquest who would need to find yet unseen improvement to win/place they are dreadful value especially place odds which most liely won’t happen anyway.
youmzain istheone to back at bigger and better/similar odds than those mentioned. He loves the track loves a fast gallop has good acceleration loves cut in the ground,doesn’t win the races his abilities deserves him to but if hes fit will give any1 a race. However having seen all of thehorses stacelita is the one for me unexposed who knows how good she is with cutin theground has shown ready speed though on faster ground althoughtheform is questionable butthat doesn’t undermine her she’s done it easily enough will race off bottom weight with improvement likely with and extra furlong or so.

I’d have to agree, although i’d want to see 11/2 at least. Stacelita COULD be the one they have to catch, depends on weather it was just the super form of Jean Claude Rouget or her actual class. Despite her impressiveness, she’ll have to improve a lot on that to come close in an Arc IMHO. Great to see a big fan of her tough

I’ agree on the F&G point. Casual Conquest seems to need soft ground and can’t go more than 2 months without a run before he needs it.
Ask and Vision are good horses, and will go close, especially Vision. Youmzain is a storming place bet at all times, and a brilliiant lay too. He’ll go close.

It’s not good to use GS as a formline in the KG for FAG/Conduit. F&G was value for more than his 5 length winning margin, is still quite unexposed (only 6 runs and 5 wins out of those) and the King George was a race too far for him IMHO, so he did well to finish 5th. Wait until something meets him in a trail. If I were to do something silly and use STS as a formline through Conduit in the Eclipse, i’d have F&G miles ahead.But the world and his dog now that over 1/12 miles, he’s a lot better than over 1f, especially with him being held up as far back as he was that day.

[Stacelita]

11/2 is available and Stacelita WILL be the one to beat especially on softer gound and it looks like shes wants further than the Oaks distance.

[Zarkava]

Oh look what a surprise, now the Prix de Diane runner-up Tamazirte finishes last in a Group 3 when odds-on favourite. I knew the form was bad but I didn’t realise it’d end up being as bad as this.

[Gerald]

Well, if the British horses are crap, and the Irish horses are crap and the French horses are crap, then I’m backing any Japanese horse that turns up.

[Author]

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