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It looks a very ordinary renewal
Unreal. Some people are just never satisfied. There must be, what, nine/ten Group 1 winners in this year’s contest?
I didn’t realise the Arc was looking for a PR man? I have no idea how many Group 1 winners are in the race. What I do know there are a dearth of top class middle distance horses around this season and that is reflected in this field. Races such as the Coronation Cup and King George were hardly vintage renewals and only three turned up for the Juddmonte. The cupboard appears pretty bare in France as well. Sea The Stars has already beaten the second favourite twice and with conditions in his favour should do so again.
STS has all the heroic credentials to give Racing the positive showing that is deserves.
For the price tho i think Conduit ew is a fair sporting bet and also Dar Re Mi would be good compensation after what happened last time and plus the Gosden team have already hit the board at the meeting.
Anyone doubting what I was saying about Stacelita in the Vermeille take a look at Goldikova today. However with Stacelita given a draw of 16 (ouch) it’ll take some Soumillon magic to win from there.
If Cavalryman wins from 19 or even places it will be an exceptional performance. The current odds don’t reflect his actual chance.
STS can have no excuses from his draw almost perfect.Sea The Stars, who, in my opinion, already stands shoulder-to-shoulder with the best equine talent we’ve ever witnessed, will arguably stake his claim as the greatest with victory in the Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe.
He goes to France bidding for an incredible six Group One victories in as many months and will justifiably start an odds-on favourite.
He has that very rare ability to travel equally well over any distance from eight to twelve furlongs, showing a fine turn of foot to land the 2000 Guineas in May (dual Group One winner Rip Van Winkle well held) before demonstrating his athleticism and stamina to beat Irish Derby winner, Fame And Glory, at Epsom.
He confirmed superiority in the Eclipse, where he defeated Rip Van Winkle for a third successive time (Conduit well held in third) and the Irish Champion Stakes, where he possessed far too much speed for Fame And Glory over ten furlongs.
He demonstrated his battling qualities at York when defeating the ultra tough Mastercraftsman, already a winner of the Irish 2000 Guineas and St James’ Palace Stakes.
Sea The Stars also boasts a fine constitution, unbreakable temperament and unparalleled cruising speed.
Rarely have we seen an animal with such an abundance and perfect blend of attributes and, despite the high level of competition, it will come as a major shock if he doesn’t make it an incredible six Group One victories in as many months today.
It’s a compliment to the talent of Sea The Stars that his nearest market rival and biggest danger comes in the shape of Fame And Glory, a horse whom he has defeated twice already this campaign.
One can argue that the Epsom Classic was not run to suit Fame And Glory. Stamina is his biggest weapon, allied with the ability to travel well off a strong pace.
His stable companion, Set Sail (drawn 14), will need to break like a greyhound to undertake his pacemaking role effectively, but there’s nowhere to hide at Longchamp and the Ballydoyle horse should get the fast pace he needs to show his true form.
Conduit added the King George to his St Leger and Breeders Cup victories of 2008. He displayed plenty of trademark vigour that day and, like Fame And Glory, he will hope to benefit from a strong end-to-end gallop.
He was entitled to be well held at Sandown behind Sea The Stars in July. The Sir Michael trained 4YO excels at this time of year and will be seen in a much better light over this trip.
Getaway and Youmzain (blinkered for the first time) are both chasing this prize for the third successive year. The German raider had Youmzain 3 1/2L behind when running away with the Von Baden on his latest start, but Mick Channon’s stable star has finished ahead of his old rival on the two pervious occasions they’ve met in this race.
Beaten by the narrowest margin in 2007 by the great Dylan Thomas and only finding superfilly, Zarkava, too good last year, the 6YO is sure to benefit from the assistance of Kieren Fallon, who can make the most of his ideal position in stall 1.
The home defence is led by Cavalryman, bidding to emulate Bago and Rail Link in recent years by adding the Longchamp showpiece to his success in the Grand Prix de Paris.
This two-time course and distance winner showed his wellbeing when landing the Prix Niel last time out and is bidding to give Andre Fabre his eighth win in the race.
Vision d’Etat, fifth in this race last year, stayed on well to defeat Tartan Bearer over ten furlongs in the Prince of Wales at Royal Ascot in June. The 2008 Prix Du Jockey Club winner was not given a hard time in the Prix Foy on his latest start and will be primed for this.
Stacelita was awarded the Prix Vermaille after the DQ of Dar Re Mi. She was ultra impressive when securing a Group One double earlier in the season and shouldn’t be underestimated in a race where there’s little to seperate the two fillies.
CONCLUSION
It will be some achievement if Sea The Stars can crown his season by adding the Arc to his already impressive ensemble of glittering prizes.
His impressive win at Leopardstown was testament to his constitution and it’s hard to imagine he won’t maintain his form, even after five top class efforts in as many months.
Well drawn in stall 6, you can only imagine traffic problems preventing him from success.
I’ve always maintained that only Fame And Glory can beat John Oxx’s colt over twelve furlongs and he represents the biggest danger. I think Aiden O’Brien had one eye on the Arc when preparing him for the Irish Champion and, although I would have preferred to see him rallying at the end of that race, tactics prevented him from doing so and he’ll push the favourite all the way over this distance. Nicely drawn in stall 10.
Conduit and Vision d’Etat are closely rated on a line through Tartan Bearer. I think this generation of 3YOs are better than the Class of 2008, so both must improve to trouble the Epsom Derby 1 – 2, in my opinion.
Dar Re Mi beat Stacelita on merit in the Prix Vermaille and I would show preference for the English filly in a match bet. Both will find this a tough assignment against the colts, but aren’t without ew chances.
Cavalryman will need to improve on all known form, but any Andre Fabre trained runner deserves respect and he has the right credentials to run a big race.
Getaway has trailed in behind Youmzain on their two previous encounters in this race.
I couldn’t have Youmzain earlier this week, but he boasts a fine record in this event and if the first time blinkers do the trick he will be hard to keep out the frame. He’s a horse that needs everything to go right and Fallon is the perfct jockey to take advantage of his position in stall one, where he should get plenty of cover.
My idea of the first three:
1 Sea The Stars
2 Fame And Glory
3 Youmzain
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You’re having a laugh, aren’t you stilvi?
Youmzain
– nutty, but a Group 1 winner, twice a Coronation Stakes runner-up and twice an Arc runner-up
Conduit
– a St Leger, Breeders’ Cup and King George winner
Vision D’Etat
– a three-time Group 1 winner (fifth in Arc)
Getaway
– two-time Group 1 winner, multiple Group 2 winner, Group 3 and Listed winner (fifth and eighth in Arc)
Dar Re Mi
– hard as nails, two-time Group 1 winner (unlucky not to be three-time)
Fame And Glory
– two-time Group 1 winner (including a classic), two-time Group 1 runner-up
Cavalryman
– Group 1 winner, Group 2 winner
Stacelita
– undefeated, three-time Group 1 winner
Sea The Stars
– the greatest racehorse of the last 20 years (at the very least)
How does all of that add up to a ‘poor renewal’? Bum gravy of the highest order.
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I’d agree that Fame And Glory was ridden with another day in mind in the Irish Champion, and can quite well see him reversing the form with STS here.
We have yet to see the best of Conduit this season, and he remains a danger to them all. A little more cut, to place the emphasis on stamina, would have made Ryan Moore’s task easier, but he may well be up to it anyway.Conduit
Fame And Glory
Sea The Stars.- Total Posts 17716
Big day and ultimate test for Sea the Stars is finally here.
No getting away from it he has just about everything you would want in a horse. He has the abilty to travel at such a high cruising speed and quicken of it that you wonder if he can ever be beaten.
How do you get a horse like him off the bridle and get him to use up his limited turn of foot and turn him into an ordinary horse?
AOB has sent out pacemaker after pacemaker to try and burn him out and all he has achieved is to burn his own horses out while Sea the Stars has coped without any problem to still have enough in the tank to destroy them.
If ever a race was set up to bring about the defeat of Sea the Stars it’s the Arc but the essential ingredient a horse wil need to beat him is missing in most of his rivals.
He travels so well that you can be guaranteed that anything in front of him at the furlong marker is going down. In that situation if he runs his normal race all Mick Kinane would have to dio is change hands and he’ll quicken up and go onto to win.
If he’s going to be beaten it’s not going to be by something like Stacelita she’ll be a sitting duck for Sea the Stars. Fame and Glory doesn’t have the neccessary credentials, he may well come there with a steady challenge but lacks that other gear that Sea the Stars and others have.
If Sea the Stars is going to be beaten it will come from a horse who comes from a long way back who’s momentum is such that Sea the Stars can’t respond in time.
The only two horses I can think of with the ability to do that are Conduit and Vision d’Etat who’s style of running is suited better than most to an Arc. If one of these two can come late and fast they could well win. Getaway could win or be last. Brilliant on his day crap on an off day.
You would have to be very naive to think Conduit was at his best or suited by the Eclipse trip and common sense should tell you he’ll be a different horse entirely today. Vision d’Etat wasn’t knocked about last time with this race in mind so it’s safe to say both will be primed and ready.
If Sea the Star wins no one will be surprised but don’t be surprised if he’s beaten either.
This is not a 1m2f race against other 2yo’s it’s the toughest 1m4f race inthe world to win against horses of all ages. Some great names have crashed out in this racebecause not only do you need class speed and stamina you need things to go your way.
John Oxx said his main worry is the size of the field and so it should be. It’s not just those around you that are the worry or whether you get trapped in a pocket that’s the worry. Mick Kinane will need eyes in the back of is head and his judgement of pace will have to be at it’s very best….this is not going to be a case of keeping your eye on Mastercraftsman and move when he moves type race. Horse will be coming at Sea the Stars from all directions….some trying to outstay him and others like those mentioned trying to come with a late run and surprise him.
I don’t think it’s going to be as easy and many think but I think with luck Sea the Stars can pull it off.
From a betting point of view and the realisation that if any man can bring about the downfall of Sea the Stars it’s Sir Michael Stoute I’m sticking with Conduit ew
He was rmarkable value at 12’s and 14’s and is still overpriced IMO.If this was any other race I’d go
1. Sea the Stars
2. Conduit
3. Fame and Glory
4. GetawayHowever because it’s the Arc and the way I expect the race to be run it could end up
1. Conduit
2. Vision d’Etat
3. Getaway
4. Sea the StarsHeart would prefer Sea the Stars to win my pocket Conduit but the way the lucks been going my gut tells me Vision d’Etat will most likely win the Arc..
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You’re having a laugh, aren’t you stilvi?
Youmzain
– nutty, but a Group 1 winner, twice a Coronation Stakes runner-up and twice an Arc runner-up
Conduit
– a St Leger, Breeders’ Cup and King George winner
Vision D’Etat
– a three-time Group 1 winner (fifth in Arc)
Getaway
– two-time Group 1 winner, multiple Group 2 winner, Group 3 and Listed winner (fifth and eighth in Arc)
Dar Re Mi
– hard as nails, two-time Group 1 winner (unlucky not to be three-time)
Fame And Glory
– two-time Group 1 winner (including a classic), two-time Group 1 runner-up
Cavalryman
– Group 1 winner, Group 2 winner
Stacelita
– undefeated, three-time Group 1 winner
Sea The Stars
– the greatest racehorse of the last 20 years (at the very least)
How does all of that add up to a ‘poor renewal’? Bum gravy of the highest order.
Got to agree with you mate it’s a top drawer Arc. The betting and the fact Sea the Stars is such a good horse makes it look a poor race as people can’t imagine him being beaten but when stalls open that idea will soon fly out the window and we’l all be on tenderhooks….any of the above are well capable of winning today.
Good morning from Paris everyone.
It is cloudy at the moment, no sunshine today, so a bit colder than yesterday, but no sign of rain yet and it doesn’t look like it will rain. I will update further when I am at the course in about an hour and a half.
FIST,
I agree wholeheartedly with your summary of how the race will pan out. The only way Sea The Stars will get beat is if something absolutely flies home and doesn’t give give Sea The Stars enough time to counter challenge.
Conduit, Youmzain and Vision D’Etat are the only horses capable of this. Vision D’Etat is one of my favourite horses, but I just don’t know if he’ll be good enough. Youmzain always seems to find one too good, and I just can’t see how Conduit can reverse the Eclipse form, even taking the extra 2f into account, and the fact that Conduit will be more ready now than on that day.
Therefore if the same Sea The Stars turns up that won 5 group 1s already this year I can’t see anything but a Sea The Stars win, with the other 3 and Fame And Glory coming in behind.
I would like him STS to win, but I won’t be surprised if he isn’t in the first three. The Arc throws up plenty of shocks & I think it might this afternoon.
Had small ew on Getaway who I think is vastly overpriced at 33/1. Hasten to add that I do not in any way want Sea the Stars get beaten, and am nervous as hell at this moment in time.
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It’s weird that Mo I feel the same way but if he is beaten and Conduit or Getaway win, one of us is going to get over it very quickly
Greetings from Longchamp! It’s a nice day again, quite warm but a bit cloudy, no chance of rain in my opinion!
I’ve laid STS to win for a decent amount and am going in on Stacelita win/place on the machine. There is a lot of money at 30’s right now. Those odds are so far out of whack, reminds me a bit of yesterday’s Foret where there were odds also out of context.
I do however want STS to show us one more imperial performance because a horse like him is what we should be celebrating, the best advertising the sport can have, when the spotlight is on the primary performers.
I agree with a few on here that Sea The Stars is going to be beaten! I reckon that the first three will be from:
Getaway, Conduit, Dar Re Mi and Youmzain….
The Sea The Stars hype (sorry wrong word for a good horse but can’t think of another) has affected the UK – it would be interesting to see how the press and betting for this race appears in France and Germany. Wish I could speak/read either language!
Honestly, Fist, if Getaway finishes in front of Sea the Stars I will feel wretched. I was determined not to have a bet in the race and was only tempted by the price, and the fact that I was going to the bookies anyway! It’s just that it’s a wierd race for English runners. Sorry to lapse into sickly sentimentality but I’m hoping Urban Sea is looking down on her boy and willing him home….
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