Punters Price Guide

[davidbrady]

Good stuff here Alan – I tend to forget about this area of the forum but threads like yours and carvillshill’s are worth returning for.

Keep up the good work.

[Formath]

Kempton 2.30

5/4 Kauto Star, strong contender if jumping fluently
11/4 Exotic Dancer, candidate for 2nd
6/1 Racing Demon, may be in the money
13/2 Hi Cloy, has to stay and improve
11/1 My Way De Solzen, may have more to come but will need it today
14/1 Our Vic, goes well fresh and outside chance, 258 days off track?
60/1 Taranis, needs a better than career best

[Formath]

Kempton 2.25 Dec 27

13/8 Voy Por Ustedes, top class and the one to beat
100/30 Hoo La Baloo, closer at the wieights with VPU today
5/1 Mister Quasimodo, up in class so difficult
7/1 River City, not much chance on past form with the above runners
9/1 Royal Shakespeare, unlikely today
18/1 Pauntley Gofa, not fancied at this level
66/1 Tramantino, recent iffy jumper with lots to prove

[Formath]

Leicester 2.30 Dec 28

6/1 Highland Chief, youngster going places
6/1 Mokum, last year’s winner
17/2 Mandingo Chief, need to get jumping together
10/1 Alphabetical, in form and could go well
10/1 Romany Dream, off a low mark but not fancied

[Formath]

Newbury 2.40 Dec 29

11/4 Lightning Strike, bound to make a bold bid
7/2 Elusive Dream, live contender
11/2 Gauvain, needs to prove over D
6/1 Souffleur, has ability
8/1 Razor Royale, promising merits respect
8/1 improver beaten LTO by Lightning Strike
17/2 Swordsman, G may be the problem
13/1 Zilcash, some smart form but more required here
100/1 Crazy Bear, a novice novice hard to fancy

[Formath]

Something different today for a change. Adrian Massey ratings priced up as fair odds, no increment for the book margin added.

1.00
7/2 Rightway Star
11/2 Folie Dancer (2/1 Won)[/color:1nt2qref]
7/1 Fernandinia
15/2 Oh Braga
15/2 Stradbrook
15/2 Double Shot
9/1 Sailor’s Sovereign
1.30
13/2 Malko De Beaumont (8/1 Won)[/color:1nt2qref]
13/2 Menelaus
8/1 Spare Me
17/2 Quasimodo
9/1 Valentines lady
9/1 Ballyboley
10/1 Anglicisme
10/1 Anchors Away
2.05
11/8 Junctiontwentyfour
11/4 Le Roi Rouge
7/1 Just For Men
15/2 Scribano Eile
2.35
85/40 The Gangerman
11/4 Finzi
100/30 Getingbybutonly just
13/2 Sharp Belline

Just to confuse the issue I have assessed the 2.35 my way for comparison. Indicates that if you follow ratings you pays your money and takes your choice, particularly when you get past the first 3 or 4 in the market.

3/1 The Gangerman, off a low mark open to improvement
6/1 Caipiroska, has to get the D on the G
7/1 Sharp Belline, rather disappointing
7/1 Vedelle, promising sound jumper
7/1 Finzi, well beaten 4 days ago so a big ask here
8/1 Keepatem, hcap mark looks a problem
15/1 Waking Ned, solid stayer but 248 days off track?
28/1 Huka Lodge, not going well at all
60/1 Getinbybutonlyjust, some improvement but not a great jumper[/color:1nt2qref]

[Formath]

Just another look at the Adrian Massey ratings, which although he doesn’t say are time ratings as far as I am concerned. In that case whether they are critical in 26 furlong race on Soft remains to be seen. The ratings priced as ‘fair’ odds with no book margin added. The comments alongside are mine.

Warwick 2.40 Dec 31

100/30 Beat The Boys, has to jump and act on the G
7/2 Dinnie Flannagan, keeps changing yards? 348 days off track?
4/1 Gritti Palace, a lot to prove here, 404 days off track?
5/1 Pass It On, conditions appear to suit (pundits choice and 5/4 at last look)
13/2 Elbow Lane, Others have stronger claims
22/1 Iconoclast, could be involved
100/1 General Zhang, soft going an unknown factor
1000/1 Harry Blade, PU LTO after 2 years off track?

[Formath]

My own assessment today priced up after filtering through 10 critical factors, with 15% increment as overround.

Fontwell 1.15 Jan 3

8/11 O’maley, improver and strong chance if jumping holds up
85/40 Nation State, moderate and more needed should stay
11/2 Silver Serg, modest and looks up against it here
14/1 Give Me A Dime, stiff task for fencing debut
40/1 Polinamix, unreliable
??? Perseverence, disappointing Irish pointer

Just for interest and comparison I priced up the Massey ratings to (damn site quicker as well )

85/40 O’maley
85/40 Nation State
11/4 Give Me A Dime
3/1 Silver Serg
500/1 Polinamix
??? Perseverence[/color:2lw13ikq]

[Formath]

Struggling today with what’s on offer, handicap hurdle races are my Nat Hunt racing nemesis so I have absolutely no confidence in my assessment today and it’s really only to keep my hand in. I mean Massey gives Tisseman and so does Gimcrack in the Mail but ‘no way Pedro’ on my analysis. So here we go because facts are facts with each runner passed thro’ 10 filters that have proved critical to winner finding in the past and priced up with a 27% increment for the Book.

Lingfield 2.50 Jan 4

7/2 Ballyfitz, good recent form but up 11lbs, more than ever won with before?
11/2 Ellway Prospect, could show but only female in race and that’s a problem for me?
11/2 Georges Boy, C&D was first win in 24 races, down 7lbs so hcap OK
6/1 Coda Agency, never won on the Flat so needs more
6/1 Come Bye, 12yo plugging on needs improvement here
13/2 The Very Man, reverts to hurdling after poor fencing and has some chance
15/2 Nightfly, has run well here but up 11lbs and getting D is not certain
11/1 English Jim, couple of odd runs and not fancied
16/1 Franco
22/1 Stolen Moments
66/1 Tisseman (by all accounts I’m going out on a limb here )

[Formath]

Sandown 2.40 Jan 5

95/40 Deep Purple, 5-timer on GF, capable
7/2 Alsada, improver but G is a concern?
4/1 Calgary Bay, could be more to come
11/2 Breedsbreeze, improver goes on the G
13/2 Sweetheart, won on hdl debut but up in class?
10/1 Psychomodo, acts on S but D may not be ideal?
20/1 Quartano
28/1 Moonhawk
80/1 Freddie The Third
80/1 Talenti

[Formath]

This is my kind of race, not for betting but for watching. Each runner thro’ 10 critical filters priced up with an 11% margin for the book:

Leicester 2.20 Jan 8

9/4 Jack The Giant, weight-favoured top novice chaser just slight concern over D?
11/4 Fundamentalist, has to jump well to be thereabouts
6/1 Iron Man, progressive useful but difficult in the conditions
15/2 Butler’s Cabin, would be a shock over the short D? Up 14lbs? Off track 248 days?
80/1 Bronson F’Sure, looks a hopeless case in this company

[Formath]

Not a race for the form buffs to get excited about, inconsistent, no good recent form – but something has got to win it
10 filters, priced up with 15% book margin, but really just my opinion.

Musselburgh 3.10 Jan 9

6/4 Day Du Roy, in & out runner but hampered when 2L 2nd LTO
13/8 The Nomad, not won since 2004 but showed a little LTO
6/1 Great Jayne, female versus males and not for me, up 17lbs, 248 days off track
7/1 World Vision, C&D goes well here so no excuses
13/1 Johnny Roche, disappointing
50/1 Fakima, Irish contender but unreliable form
50/1 Teviot Brig, never shown much so everything to prove

[Formath]

What a day, it’s not getting better – Catterick abandoned and left with Hereford over the sticks. The racing there is always such low grade I wonder why that is? Anyway I havn’t got the heart to do much so I will just price up some of the more fancied Massey rated runners.

Hereford
1.00
Celestial Gold 100/30
Super Nick 13/2 (2/1 Won) [/color:d46a9uw4]

1.30
Cooldine Boy 7/1
Crocodiles Rock 7/1
So Now 15/2

2.00
Spare Cash 3/1
Hold Em 4/1 (7/2 Won)
Peters Star 5/1
Crank Hill 5/1
Cave Hill 5/1

2.30
Missis Potts 5/2 (10/11 Won) [/color:d46a9uw4]
Overstrand 11/4
Battlecry 11/4
River Logic 7/2

3.00
Heart Springs 7/2
Irish Legend 4/1
Pearly Star 4/1
Bold Trump 9/2

3.30
Norseman Cateline 7/2
Oakley Absolute 4/1
Jupon Vert 4/1
Atacama Star 9/2 (5/1 Won)[/color:d46a9uw4]
Sea Commander 5/1

[Formath]

This is really my forte if I am to enjoy my racing, assess the form and price them – and the satisfaction of being proved correct

Fontwell 2.50 Jan 24
Odds (My form odds with no margin added for the overround)
6/5 O’maley, French import capable of a bold show
11/4 Air Force One, highly regarded & conditions suit
7/2 Methodical, ordinary few too strong
5/1 Gaelic Gift, ordinary
28/1 Jackella, looks outclassed
60/1, likely to struggle

[Formath]

Doncaster 3.40 Jan 25
Odds
10/3 Miss Pross, needs to improve fencing
9/2 Salhood, some concern over D and has to jump
11/2 Mr Prickle, progressive and may be coming into form
11/2 Stormy Lord, 12yo and hard to fancy nowadays?
16/1 Mongorno, French import, may be improving
16/1 Eborary, down in weight, struggled LTO?
22/1 Shares, in and out runner that has to be in the mood?
33/1 Chery D’Or, something to prove for new yard, off track 252 days?
33/1 Polyphon, something to prove?
66/1 Different Class, difficult to fancy?
66/1 Ela Ray, below best last month may struggle?

[Formath]

Towcester 3.00 Jan 31

11/4 Balleygalley Lad, open to improvement
6/1 Blunham Hill, off a low mark
13/2 Carryduff, improver could be thereabouts
13/2 Amazing Value, capable of featuring in this company
8/1 Zimbabwe, one to watch
13/1 Julius, others more reliable
18/1 Harry Collins, easily opposed
25/1 Cetti’s Warbler, difficult to fancy
25/1 Squires Lane, difficult to fancy
50/1 Nagam, yard out of form

[Formath]

Sandown 3.40 Feb 2

3/1 Irish Raptor, C&D erratic but shortlisted
4/1 Eric’s Charm, C&D well treated and needs to stepup
6/1 Harris Bay, C&D has had breathing problems
9/1 Gungadu, may not get D?
11/1 Kelami, OK at Chel LTO
11/1 Burntoakboy, well hcpd but may not get D?
22/1 My Immortal, usefulas a novice could improve 216 days off track?
22/1 Tora Bora, disappointing
35/1 Principe Azzurro, running better than last season
35/1 Cerium, high in the weights, D?
66/1 Butler’s Cabin, going for the Grand Nat, D?

[Author]

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