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Ollie,
I would say it’s marginally better on the flat, probably because it relies heavily on decent speed ratings derived from truly run races. There’s plenty of those over jumps as well, and really there’s not a lot in it between the two.
Folk 5.15. DUELLING BANJOS 101(+18) is comfortably clear on ratings and must be a decent bet if the price hold up. 30pts win @2/1+.<br>won 9/4 tchd 11/4 +68pts<br>Sout 3.30 There will be a lot worse even money bets than TICKI TORI 105(+25) this coming season, but stakes must be limited to 10pts win because of her maiden status. 10pts@1/1+.<br>2nd 8/13 op 4/6 tchd 8/11 NO BET
A profit of 68pts on the day<br>Sout 4.30 A decent enough h’cap for this course:
Polar Magic        107(+14)<br>Waterside         106<br>Marko Jadeo       106
Polar Magic will be no price, Waterside needs to lead which won’t be easy from stall 13, and Marko Jadeo will probably be unsuited by the going. NO BET<br>  <br>The rest of the racing is unappealing.
(Edited by Artemis at 8:56 am on April 19, 2005)<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 7:06 pm on April 19, 2005)
Some decent races today. I’ve concentrated on the main meeting at Epsom, but there are some fair bets dotted around the other meetings.
Epsm  1.50 POLISH EMPEROR 119(+12) is top-rated and also has the best credentials. Also likely to be fav.<br>20pts win@7/2+<br>5/12l 11/4f op 10/3 tchd 7/2 -20pts<br>      2.20 Elliot’s World 119(+12) is clear top at short and correct odds. NO BET  <br>2/5 1/1<br>     3.05 I’m surprised at the odds available for top-rated SOLO FLIGHT 121(+14) and the fact that he’s unfancied. Not the ideal track for his late surge, but perhaps the leaders will come back to him on this easy ground. 10pts ew@14/1(Betfred).<br>6/13 16/1 -20pts<br>    3.40 Counsel’s Opinion     129<br>        Wunderwood         129<br>        Shahzan House       127<br>        Tiger Tiger            127
Wunderwood and Shahzan House would both prefer better ground, so COUNSEL’S OPINION, who is very game and not overburdened is the bet. 20pts@ 5/1(Betfred). <br>3/10,, 11/2 -20pts<br>It’s worth having a bet on TIGER TIGER, who loves soft ground and looks overpriced at 12/1.<br>10pts ew@12/1(Betfred)<br>7/10 9/1 -20pts
Two interesting horses at Perth. In the 4.00 KID’Z’PLAY 138(+17) is comfortably top-rated and could easily make<br>all of the running. 10pts ew@8/1+.<br>won/15, 8/1 tchd 9/1 +100pts<br>In the 4.35, ALMOST BROKE 144(+13) is ahead of likely fav Scuh Shine 141, so is worth a bet if the price doesn’t shorten.. 20pts@7/2+<br>won/8, 5/2jf op 11/4 tchd 3/1 NO BET
In the 4.50 Catterick, EGO TRIP(97(+13) stands out. Taking a chance on his fitness in this moderate handicap. 20pts@4/1+<br>5/11, 9/2 -20pts
Finally, Lingfield 7.15 is not as competitive as it looks and AMIR ZAMAN 100(+15) has an excellent chance although he will probably have to stalk the pace from his high draw, so will need luck in running.<br>20pts ew@ 6/1+  <br>7/16, 6/1 -40pts
A loss of 40pts on the day<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 9:42 am on April 21, 2005)
There look to be a few value bets, but I suspect some of them will be below the required odds.
Font 2.40 Premier Estate 136(+15) 20pts@7/2+<br>3/6, 4/1 op 9/2 tchd 5/1 -20pts<br>     5.10 The Staggery Boy 130(+15) 20pts@7/2+<br>won/5 11/4 op 5/2 tchd 3/1, 2NRS 7/2, 10/1, acceptable odds 5/2 +50pts<br>Bev  2.50 Boopy’s Princess 99(+14) 20pts@5/2+<br>won/11, 2/1f op 9/4 NO BET <br>Perth 2.30 Napolitain 141(+14) 20pts@7/4+<br>won/9, 1/1f tchd 5/4, 3NRs 5/1, 25/1, 25/1, acceptable odds 11/8 NO BET<br>     5.00 Commercial Flyer 150(+19) <br>      Westmeath Flyer 148(+17)
The top-rated is at very short odds, but WESTMEATH FLYER can be backed at 10/1 with Betfred, so that’s got to be the bet. 10pts ew@10/1 <br>Commercial Flyer won at 1/1f, Westmeath Flyer, 13/2 fel, 8ran, 3NRs -20pts
A profit of 10pts on the dayl
(Edited by Artemis at 6:55 pm on April 21, 2005)
Today’s Sandown ratings:
1.10 L’ANGE AU CIEL 169(+17) is rated five points clear of a group of 4 horses on 164. He has not impressed me on his last two runs, being beaten a long way from the finish, so I’m having to trust that we will see the best of him today. I think he will be a market drifter, so I’m taking a chance on leaving a bet at SP. 10pts ew.<br>Fell 7/1 op 6/1 in the process of running another disappointing race when came down -20pts<br>1.45 Rooster Booster    176 (+13)<br>     Tamarinbleu       174<br>     Royal Shakespeare  170
Rooster Booster looks priced about right at 3/1, so NO BET.<br>Rooster Booster drifted to 5/1 and won by 4 lengths, although Royal Shakespeare was going very well when he fell 2 out.
2.20 KING’S QUAY 131(+15) has the best recent form and that is usually what’s required to win these early season Group 3 races. 20pts ew@5/1+, or 30pts at 4/1+.<br>6/8, 11/2 op 9/2 tchd 11/2. Never got into the race and was probably outclassed. -30pts
2.55 Crosspeace      120(+15)<br>     Oligarch         120<br>     Enforcer         119
Probably the first three in the betting. I cannot see any great value here.<br>only Enforcer managed a place.
3.30 NELTINA 149(+16) is clear top by four points and I would expect her to be fav, so I think the early odds of 11/2 are worth taking. 10pts ew@11/2(Betfred).<br>5/10, 5/1jf Didn’t see the race but apparently made a very bad blunder which put paid to any hopes. -20pts
4.05  Plea Bargain 113(+13) too short.<br>won by 6 lengths, 4/11<br>4.35 Quizzene      109(+13)<br>     Haatmey      108<br>     Come On Jonny 108<br>     I’m Spartacus   106<br>     Duroob        106
Tricky. Quizzene is going to be too short, so it’s a choice between HAATMEY and Come on Jonny, both likely to be around 8/1. I wouldn’t have any worries about fitness for the selection who could turn out to be a bit better than this grade, but I wouln’t be surprised if the other one won. I’ve talked myself out of having a bet.
Quizzene won 11/4f and Come On Jonny was 3rd.
A loss of 70pts on the day.
(Edited by Artemis at 7:12 pm on April 22, 2005)
I was unable to post earlier but it wasn’t a very good day for the ratings. Without going into detail, I had:<br>Sand 2.00 Pardishar 12/1 unplaced -20pts<br> 3.15 Whitenzo 9/1 4th, +25pts <br> 3.45 Pentecost 12/1 unplaced -20pts<br> 4.20 Hazyview 2nd 3/1 NO BET<br> 4.50 Royal Prince 2nd 6/1 +10pts<br>Rip 2.20 Angelofthenorth 9/4 unplaced -40pts
A loss of 45pts on the day.
<br>Ludl  3.45 Talbot Lad 137(+13) 10pts ew@6/1+<br>pulled up 6/1 op9/1 -20pts<br>     4.20 Rift Valley 131(+20) 30pts@5/4+<br>2nd 4/5 op 1/1 1NR 14/1 acceptable price 6/5 NO BET<br>Weth 4.40 Freetown 149(+15) 10pts ew@9/1<br>NR<br>         Jungle Jinks 10pts ew@14/1+<br>6th/12 9/1 3NRs 7/2, 6/1, 10/1, acceptable price 9/1 -20pts
A loss of 40pts on the day
Weekly Total
Stakes 540pts Profit 13pts
Running Total(since Feb 21st)
Stakes 3,520pts Profit 14pts
(Edited by Artemis at 10:11 am on April 25, 2005)
It’s proving a bit of a struggle at the moment during this transition period. There’s not enough solid recent form to produce high ratings. By solid recent form I mean decent speed figures to support the form ratings. As a consequence, the ratings for most flat races are bunched up around the +10 mark, whereas the top ratings should really be around 17 or 18+ once the season gets going. It also takes much longer to work out the ratings because so few horses stand out. This means you have to work out the rating for just about every runner in case there is a combination of positive factors that boost a horse’s rating past others with better form/speed ratings. For instance, a horse ridden by its’ usual jockey(+3), who is also one of the top riders(+3), and is a course(+2) and distance(7f+)(+1) with a career record of 2/10(+2), won last time out(+2) is +13 without any form/speed ratings taken into account.
Just a couple of possible bets today:
Ham 4.20  Millagros     105(+11)<br>         Backgammon  104<br>         Hezaam      103(Not qualified, minimum+10)
Millagros is fit from the jumps having run well recently in a decent race at Ayr. 10pts ew@11/2+<br>5th/12, 9/1 -20pts<br>Wind 6.00  Olivia Rose 101(+10), only qualifier.<br>8th/9, 4/1f op11/2, 2NRS 4/1,10/1, acceptable odds 11/2 -20pts
A loss of 40pts on the day<br>looks a fairly tight race, but I think the price for Olivia Rose is attractive. 10pts ew@7/1+
<br>        <br>
(Edited by Artemis at 8:23 am on April 26, 2005)
I have just closed a thread I was running on the Football section of the forum because I thought I had taken it about as far as I could. It made me think about this thread, which is now virtually just tips using my own version of a ratings method that lots of other people probably use.
I’ve mulled it over and decided to stop posting the ratings based selections on the Systems thread. There are always new threads appearing with some interesting ideas as well as those that are just selections found using mysterious rules which cannot be divulged. I think new ideas need to be looked at in preference to those that are well established.
I don’t think there is much scope for developing the ratings system I employ because it has been arrived at over quite a long period. I’m quite happy with it in its present form and I will invariably use it for the foreseeable future. I believe there may be some mileage at looking at bigger priced horses which are not top-rated and also looking to lay horses who are short priced but not highly rated.
If anyone wishes to contact me with queries on how ratings can be worked out, or if anyone is developing their own ratings based on the Racing Post databases, I will do my best to help them if they contact me through the forum.
Finally, since starting the thread in September, I’ve managed to break even on quite a large turnover in terms of number of bets. I did expect to make a profit <br>of about 5 per cent, but couldn’t do it at SP for reasons explained quite a few times on the thread. Since I started recommending prices, which is more of a real world scenario, I think I would have reached my target given reasonable results. The real profit for me has been in the enjoyment.
<br>
Artemis,
I am really sad you have decided to stop posting the selections from your system as it was one of my first ports of call to identify support for my own picks, which are derived using a broadly similar approach.
Thanks for your excellent contribution which i checked out whenever I could and always at weekends.
Ollie
Artemis,
If you come up with some new ideas, please do not hesitate to post again as your ideas were always well respected here.
Regards- Matron<br>:cool:
Hello Matron
I have been on holiday and also rather busy since my return. I am still following with great interest many of the threads on here.
There are a few important adjustments I have made to the ratings method after some reflection.
The main change is to make some allowance for speed ratings achieved prior to the 60 day cut off point stipulated in the original post. At the start of the flat( turf) I had introduced a temporary award of 2 points for horses that had achieved a Topspeed figure during the past year or so which was equal to, or greater than the base Speed figure. The reason for this is that there are not many recent (under 60 day) speed figures available in the early part of the season. This was meant to be a transitional allowance until the end of May, when it would be dropped and only recent speed figures taken into account.
Having thought about it, particularly in the light of recent thinking about horses being unable or unlikely to produce high figures in successive races, I believe there is definitely some merit in giving a horse some credit for a relatively high figure achieved at any time during the past year or so. Actually, Topspeed goes back about 14 months.
Another change I’ve made is to identify certain courses where horses perform well because the track is sharp or undulating and puts galloping types at a disadvantage. Horses with winning or placed form at these tracks are awarded extra points when they run there.
I will post an updated version of my ratings method soon, once I’ve put it all together.
I’ve just had a read through this lot again Artemis and I agree, it has been a lot of fun. Well Done !!
I like the way you have brought it to a close as well, which is the proper way to do things.<br>:cool:
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