May 30, 2009 at 23:32 #11561
Tax Free drops back down to the minimum trip tomorrow and is heavily fancied to take this highly-competitive Group 2. In some ways it’d be a much deserved group win for Dandy Nicholls after being deprived of one just weeks ago with Inexile.
Machand D’Or, despite being 11/4 in the early betting, seems to have gone off the boil this season thus far. Much has been made of his ‘underperforming’ in his first few runs yet I’m still of the opinion that he needs a small rest. After all, he has been campaigned for 12 months non stop.
Equiano is a classy horse yet I feel Tax Free may hold him on all recent form this season. Tax Free will appreciate this drop down in trip a lot more than Equiano IMO.
For me, It’s Tax Free with a slight concern on African Rose catching my selection in the final furlong. If African Rose has trained on she could prove to be the French sprinter to follow this season. She has bigger and better things to come this season but would love to get her season off to a flyerMay 31, 2009 at 00:07 #231169carvillshillParticipant
- Total Posts 2778
Totally agree HTH, just hoping for a decent price in the morning- anything over 4/1 would do nicely. I’d be surprised if the filly is sharp enough to handle him at 5f first time up.May 31, 2009 at 00:10 #231170
Me too Carv, Slightly worried about the price though as Coral have him up at 2/1 alreadyMay 31, 2009 at 00:34 #231176ZarkavaParticipant
- Total Posts 4691
Urgh why have they completely split the card. The card last year was wonderful. Loved being there. Grand Prix de Chantilly, Prix du Gros-Chene, Prix de Diane. Actually the Sandringham’s on tomorrow as well and I think that was on Prix du Jockey Club day last year. They’ve made the Prix du Jockey Club card pretty poor now and the Prix de Diane card is dreadful. Can’t understand the decision. It’s not as if they lose much money through entry. They give out so many invitations – I must have been to about 8 meetings at Longchamp, Saint Cloud, Auteuil or Chantilly last year and never paid a single cent to get in.
I’m finding it extremely difficult to really get excited about the older horses this year and I feared this’d be the case 6 months ago. Just look at the GP de Chantilly entries. It’s a Group 2 for goodness sakes. The Sandringham looks equally dreadful (it usually is to be fair) but the Gros-Chenes looks a decent race.
I won’t be having a bet but I think Equiano back over 5f will do him the world of good. He finished 2nd in this last year and might be able to go one better.May 31, 2009 at 06:50 #231208AnonymousInactive
- Total Posts 17716
Tax Free will appreciate this drop down in trip a lot more than Equiano IMO.
I’d say it’s the other way round, hth.
While Tax Free has been a revelation this season, he didn’t have the speed for a fast ground Temple Stakes, beat nothing on g/f at Naas, and took his time getting on top over a stiff 5 on g/y at the Curragh.
Equiano, on the other hand, had the speed to lead Marchand D’or until the death in this last year, and to subsequently make all in a fast ground King’s Stand. IMO, he only lasted home in the 6f Abernant because of fast ground and a tail wind, didn’t see it out in the Duke Of York (Won by Utmost Respect, who is anything but the fast ground horse the official going implies), and must have an excellent chance of reversing his Newmarket defeat over this shorter trip.
African Rose surely needs further, and with Marchand D’or apparently out of form, much depends on how the ground rides at Chantilly but, given French ‘good’ ground is normally a few strides faster than ours, I’d say a reverse is very much on the cards, and would take Equiano to have too much speed for Tax Free.
Thank goodness, there’s a decent race somewhere today.May 31, 2009 at 11:41 #231210AnonymousInactive
- Total Posts 17716
Equiano was beaten so quickly last time out it would take a brave man to back him here. He’s a bit of a law unto himself and your luck needs to be in to catch him in a winning mood.
Tax Free is much more consistant and always run well but has his limitations. This may not look the best of races on paper but it will still take a lot of winning.
Marchand D´Or would beat them all if in top form. I think he’ll go very close today but may just need this to get him 100% straight for Ascot.
Benbaun seems to reserve his best for the Curragh but put up a very good perfomance at Lonchamp last time out and he acts on this course. He has beaten Tax Free here before and was giving him weight when Tax Fee beat him.
Benbaun isn’t very far behind any of these is just coming into form and he could just spring a bit of a suprise here. I would rather back him EW with the chance of a good lift than risk backing Tax Free at a short price.
Benbauan EW for me.May 31, 2009 at 12:32 #231212
Wouldn’t share the confidence on Tax Free either.
His record in Group 2’s over 5f is 0-4. His two pattern wins over 5 in Ireland last summer were against nothing horses, the RPR’s awarded flatter him and his run at York last time further proof he’s better at 6f.
Equiano. The Kings Stand form is pants, his 2 runs at 5f since then pants, his 2 runs at 6f since then pants. His one serious bit of form was in this last year on soft ground, couldnt have him today. Also horses stepping down to 5f from 6f in Group races have a woeful record. Another negative that also applies to Tax Free.
Marchand D’or – A few months ago the champion sprinter in Europe, now he’s the same odds as the exposed Group 3 Tax Free. Would forgive him the runs in Hong Kong and Dubai on surface grounds. His run the last day is harder to forgive although he did have to concede 11 lbs to the winner. Maybe he’s lost his enthusiasm but on all known form he’s way better than most of these and 3/1 would still factor that risk and then some imo.
African Rose – Wouldn’t agree she’s better at longer trips. She’s looked barely pattern class over 7f and above, serious group material over 6f. Still cant figure out why they didnt run her in the L’abbaye, did they think she couldnt beat Marchand over 5f? She looks a complete speedball who’ll be well suited by 5f and has proper group from through Marchand D’or, Utmost Respect and Diabolical. Fitness a concern but 5/1 covers that, an unexposed improver, big player.
Mood Music looks Listed class, Benbaun is way past it at this level, Black Mambazo looks a handicapper. Sheikh Hamdans Tayseer will be interesting to look at for the future, well beaten the last granted after a long break.
Tax Free and Equiano both look very short. At the prices betting both Marchand D’or(3/1) and African Rose (5/1) to guarantee a 2 point profit looks the value to me.
* Have taken the 4/1 and 11/2 about MD and AR on Betfair. Taxfree 5/2May 31, 2009 at 18:46 #231255carvillshillParticipant
- Total Posts 2778
Get in!May 31, 2009 at 18:49 #231258
…and that’s why Tax Free was dropped back down to 5fMay 31, 2009 at 18:53 #231259
Well done. Poor race with Black Mambazo second. Marchand D’or gone. African Rose probably needed it. Tax Free still Group 3 material.May 31, 2009 at 18:55 #231260
Well done. Poor race with Black Mambazo second. Marchand D’or gone. African Rose probably needed it. Tax Free still Group 3 material.
I wouldnt say Marchand D’Or is gone, Cav.
The horse has raced in 4 different countries in 12 months without a break.
Freddie Head really needs to listen to everyone around him now and give this horse a break. It’s got to be obvious to him now surelyMay 31, 2009 at 18:57 #231261
Hold on though….
We’ve been here before…..May 31, 2009 at 19:00 #231263
3 races in the best part of 6 months isn’t that much to ask a sprinter surely. He’s doesn’t run like he’s tired, he ran today like he couldnt be bothered anymore.May 31, 2009 at 19:01 #231264deltamanMember
- Total Posts 190
Hold on though….Stewards enquiry.We’ve been here before…..
Jockey acting for an Oscar on the line!!!May 31, 2009 at 19:08 #231267
3 races in the best part of 6 months isn’t that much to ask a sprinter surely. He’s doesn’t run like he’s tired, he ran today like he couldnt be bothered anymore.
Maybe so but those 3 races were in Hong Kong, Dubai and France.
Travelling takes a lot out of horses especially those kind of distances.May 31, 2009 at 19:09 #231268The Ante-Post KingParticipant
- Total Posts 8695
Hold on though….
We’ve been here before…..
I"M SAYING NOTHING! I"M INXILED STILL!!!!!!!!May 31, 2009 at 19:13 #231269
These enquiries normally favour the losers……
It’s a small winning distance…..
I wouldnt be suprised if Tax Free lost this
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.