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Is enable wins this then she’ll surely have built up enough experience on the flat to be a good tip for her novice hurdling debut 😜
That article Mike is complete and utter gibberish.
after further overnight rain hit Paris last night turning the Longchamp going on Sunday morning to ‘very soft’.
This is false the ground was officially changed to very soft on Saturday before the overnight rain came.
Penetrometer reading is currently 4.1
4.1 on the going stick in the uk equals very heavy ground and it will be worse than 4.1 by race time.
Dettori said on Saturday: “She copes with this ground. She won the King George and Breeders’ Cup Turf on soft groundThis is completely different ground than what she has ever raced on Dettori is talking gibberish. Also saying “she copes” hardly inspires confidence its not as if she relishes or loves soft. She is a complete unknown on the ground and her legs are old.
Best two performances arguably on soft, first arc and breeders cup was definitely soft even though its listed as good
Going stuck and penitrometer are massively different potato you cant take the measurements and compare, they read things totally different
A penetrometer IS A GOING STICK ham.
What the french call very soft the british call heavy.
I mentioned a while back that it was hard to see past Enable, but the odds on was of no
interest and I took a punt on Nagano Gold who was highest priced at 80/1 (boosted to 92.5/1)
with Hills. I could have got 100/1 with just about everyone after that, but I’m happy
enough and think that todays conditions should have those odds halved at least. Just
after that, although I didn’t print it up, I took the 100/1 with Soft Light when he
hadn’t been declared but the trainer had said he would be. I thought I was doing well
grabbing the odds but he’s still 100/1 and I could have got 125/1. Nonetheless I think
that the ground conditions put him into play as he has won on heavy. I still think that
if the leading protagonists handle the conditions that there wont be an upset, but there
is that chink of doubt now and heavy conditions can be quite a leveller. I wont be upset
if Enable gets her hat-trick, but I’m hopeful one of my 2 might squeeze into the top 3,
and I’ve taken a top up 4 places with Skybet. Good luck all
TRF’s Donald Trump, Potato may have the winner in Ghaiyyath. Not that his chance is anything like what he makes out. Appleby had a close 2nd in one Longchamp race and a one-two in another. He’s in pretty good form. In a normal Arc I’d be against this horse, because usually the front runner has to go too fast early, but this field only has one other probable prominent runner. Kiseki does not need to lead in order to show his form and – having watched quite a few of his Japanese races – usually either leads or half length off the front (did win the Japanese St Leger by coming from off the pace). Can sometimes be slower away than you’d wish of a potential front runner too, often has to be pushed along to get a prominent posi’. Ghaiyyath’s chance will depend a lot on the 100/1 shot Kiseki. Might not be good enough to stay with Ghaiyyath and if the pair do not take each other on Buick may be either able to dictate a slowish pace or let Soumillon go… ie It won’t test the Godolphin runner’s stamina as much as you might think a soft ground Arc would. Not that he was stopping when running further and further clear in his German Group 1. Possible he’ll get get a positional advantage here. Hasn’t run on this soft, but on both breeding and rounded action should be very well suited by/improve for it. 14/1 imo under estimates his chance by some way.
Expected to be on Japan today, return to this trip is a plus but on breeding and action imo isn’t sure to go on the ground. Punters may say he hasn’t got much to find on a line through Crystal Ocean, but closeness of those finishing just behind that pair at York makes it highly probable the Stoute horse was a bit below best there. That said, Japan still has potential to improve. Sottsass may be progressing but – although I backed him for the French Derby – this lightly raced three year old imo has a lot to find in one go. Trainer is in particularly good form, but if they go a fast pace these condititions may test stamina. Is a son of speed influence Siyouni albeit the dam’s side gives him a chance of staying… And – on the other hand – if they go a slowish pace may be disadvantaged by position. The other French horse Waldgeist is pretty good – placed in the Arc before – but has two lengths to find with Enable and the Fabre horse has little chance of a career best (his worth is established). As win only bets go I don’t think 20/1 is value, but wouldn’t put anyone off a place only or each way bet in a race where half the field are 100/1+ and an odds-on fav (sorry Lone Soldiar
). Some might think the same can be said of the O’Brien second string, Magical. Beaten three times by Enable, but the great Gosden female only needs to be not much less than a length below her 2019 best for Magical to win. Has at least as good if not better form as Coolmore first string Japan (although not the same potential for improvement). 15/1 too big to ignore.On basic “form” (how much better one horse is over another) Enable is no value. However, three facts put together make her true chance a lot better. (1) She’s the best horse, (2) that form is good enough to win the vast majority of Arcs and (3) Is unbelievably-ultra-consistent. Therefore, if (as is extremely likely) Enable runs to form something else needs to improve to be an exceptionally good Arc winner. That considered, 4/6 is imo a fair price.
I’ve backed Ghaiyyath 14/1 and Magical 15/1 with a 4/6 saver on Enable.
Come on Enable!
Value Is EverythingPlayed Soft light and blast one piece e.w ,also added to Battle of doyen JLT bets , I fully expect Enable to win and make history , good luck all
Talk about ratings all you like, Enable has barely run to her true rating over the last couple of seasons. A prep run at Kempton before winning an Arc from a wide draw at 75% fitness. Returns this season and uses the Eclipse as a prep run which is outrageous, beats the highest rated horse in the world in the King George, then walks through another easy group 1. Ratings don’t really do her brilliance justice, and it could be said that no amount of improvement from another horse could see them get past her. The way she knuckles down every time things get tough (albeit a rare occasion) gives me much more confidence than any number could.
Appleby had a close 2nd in one Longchamp race and a one-two in another. He’s in pretty good form.
A close 2nd when you should be winninh easily doesnt equal good form.
As for the one two he had that was a 6 runner race. There was a complete outsider who stood no chance, a horse who was running in group company on only his 2nd racecourse start and was clearly out of his depth a horse who didnt like the ground and a horse whos trainer was also in awful form. So Appleby had 2 of the 6 runners in a battle of who was the best of a bad bunch.
ROYAL CRUSADE was the favourite, he was a close 2nd over 7f to one of the best 2yos of the season in THREAT he should have won the race doing cartwheels vut got beaten by his much bigger priced stable mate who wasnt expected to beat him at all amd whos best prev form was 3rd in a listed race.The form of that race isnt worth the paper its written on and if you believe that 1st and 2nd proves appleby is in form then you dont know what your doing which is clear anyway.
Appleby is in pig awful form. Why lie?
Even if you pretended the 1/2 he had was good form then even a 1 win from 18 in the last 2 weeks equates to truely horrific form for Charlie Appleby who is one of the most high strike trainers going.
I agree Igor. The first 2 winners the trainers were worried about testing conditions but they won anyway.
It is not me that is telling lies, Spud.
I’ve already put a double decker bus through your theories.
Of course one or two races isn’t that significant, but together with my earlier post on the subject is significant. Please take a look at my post at the top of page 8 of this thread. Your figures take no notice of the many overseas races Appleby has won. You’re putting other TRFers away.
Value Is EverythingJust because a horse doesn’t win it doesn’t mean it hasn’t ran to form.
Kings command had been gelded, just because a horse is favorite doesn’t mean it SHOULD win, they clearly thought something of KC or they wouldn’t of put him in the Superlative…
“King’s Command has been slightly disappointing since winning nicely on debut. He has been gelded since his latest start and we are hoping that it will bring about an improved effort.”
Well they were right.
The Green Channel in Japan states that Sottsass has overtaken Japan as the second favourite. Is that information correct?
Anyways, I’ve decided to go with Enable Sottsass, Waldgeist and Magical. Good luck to all.
Your an ‘Internet pro’ ginge. A pro in your own head only who desperately tries to convince strangers on the net that you are a pro(every forum has one). You are unable to have an opinion of your own on a race and usually back the fav the 2nd fav and the 3rd fav in the same race. You also clearly have a numbér of other ids that you talk to yourself in. Its beyond strange. a top pro who hangs on simon rowlands every word. Its a joke.
As for your list of Charlie Appleby winners in septemeber you have failed to note that the last of those worldwide winners was PINATUBO who is so superior he could win despite his stable form.
You also failed to recognise that the Canadian winner would have been in a Canadian stable for a while before the win and therfor would have avoided any virus in the yard so that win is irrelevant.You have also failed to recognise that the last of those September winners was September the 15th and its now October the 6th.
Its a fact that September in the UK was Applebys worst ever month in his career in terms of percentgae of winners to runners. So he had a few winners early in september but none after the star PINATUBO on the 15th.
10 short priced favs = 10 short priced losers in last 2 weeks
You literally are clueless. Its embarrasing.
Appleby is in horrific form. You are just ridiculous.
). Some might think the same can be said of the O’Brien second string, Magical. Beaten three times by Enable, but the great Gosden female only needs to be not much less than a length below her 2019 best for Magical to win. Has at least as good if not better form as Coolmore first string Japan (although not the same potential for improvement). 15/1 too big to ignore.
shear and force etc
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