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Arc 2012

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  • #411638
    Ugly Mare
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    • Total Posts 1294

    ^I very much agree with that. There’s one jockey who has spoken out recently that I would take more seriously than some residing over here, and that’s Andras Starke, as he seems more detached and with nothing to gain, no need to take sides, and he stated quite categorically that the only horse in the Arc he would have feared is Frankel and that his filly Danedream would have no chance against him – words to that effect.

    I do think though that, whilst they may feel he would have won, he might not have shown himself to be at his very best, he wouldn’t need to be to score, but I feel that they only want to show off Frankel in the best possible light and this wouldn’t be the race to do that. Just how I see it there.

    I’m hoping for a good run from Orfevre, although he’s not training well and they have a lot of work on. I do hope Camelot wins the Leger and then runs here. People think it can’t be done but forget User Friendly who almost won the two, just touched off, and she took in the Yorkshire Oaks as well along the way….

    I’ve taken the day off work especially to see the race as it’s my favourite of the whole year, so I’m really looking forward to it, and hope the weather is fine again and that it doesn’t come up heavy…

    #411639
    Ugly Mare
    Member
    • Total Posts 1294

    Sunday’s Grosser Preis sees Danedream, Pastorius and Novellist face each other. It should give us some idea regarding the quality of the middle distance 3yo from Germany. In truth it would not take much for them to be superior to those in this country.

    …I’m not sure about that really, when you consider that Peter Schiergen’s Girolamo could only finish 3rd to Noble Mission at Goodwood, well beat, yet he has run close to both Pastorius and Novellist this summer, so maybe they are no great shakes themselves. We shall see. I shall have to tape the racing this Sunday…

    #411660
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1569

    Pastorius next run at Munich when he beat 3 previous group 1 winners (all older horses) by 8 lengths and more was a step up on his Deutsches Derby win. Girolamo may have been flattered by his proximity to the winner as Pastorius was dropped out the back, presumably because of doubts about him seeing out the trip and he also did not keep a true course in the closing stages. It was soft and over 2f shorter than tomorrow’s trip but it was the first and only time so far this season a 3yo has won a group 1 in open company.

    #411682
    Ugly Mare
    Member
    • Total Posts 1294

    One thing about German racing which puzzles me is how they get away with this:-

    22 July 2400m Gr. 1 von Berlin
    12 Aug 2400m Gr. 1 von Bayern
    2 Sep 2400m Gr. 1 von Baden
    23 Sep 2400m Gr. 1 von Europa

    all 3yo +, 4 in 2 months…
    throw in the Dallmayr Preis 2000m and we have 5 mid distance Gr. 1’s in that period…

    not right is it?

    the von Bayern ] and von Europa [too close to the Arc], should both be thrown out…

    #411698
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1569

    In any given year you could make a case for certain events being "uncompetitive", this year’s Bayerisches Zuchtrennen was a particularly good renewal. The Pattern is hard to balance but at least Germany spreads their top events about different courses presenting different challenges to the horses.

    #411766
    parlo
    Member
    • Total Posts 196

    Nice discussion over here! :wink:

    You can see the decline of German racing over the last decades with this example.

    The original pattern was:

    Derby – GP v. Berlin – GP v. Bayern – GP v. Baden – Pr. v. Europa

    All these races over 12 furlongs and 3 weeks in between each other.

    The GP v. Berlin was the first meeting of the top-3yo and older horses and run as GP. v. Nordrhein-Westfalen at Düsseldorf, the day after the KGVI&QE Stakes at Ascot.

    The GP v. Bayern, first run at Munich this year, was originally run as ARAL-Pokal at Gelsenkirchen – initially only open to 3yo and a Derby-rerun, then – before introduction of international pattern-races – only open to German bred horses – went to Cologne and now to Munich. In recent years competition in this race was always weak.

    The GP v. Baden is historically the top-race in Germany since the 1860ties, often the most important international contest.

    The Pr. v. Europa was founded in the early 1960ties – formerly it was the "Gladiatoren-Rennen", a race with much importance for homebred horses and once the St. Leger for 4+yo. The Pr. v. Europa was intended as the German aquivalent to the Arc-de-Triomphe. In the late 60ties till the late 80ties this race often had much more competition evan than the GP. v. Baden. The timely close connection to the French Arc (a week before or later) always prevented top-class foreign competitors to take part in this race – but that was intended by the leading German owners and breeders.

    Meanwhile top-class German horse can truly compete in the Arc and the international races later in the year in the US, CAN, Japan or HK. So the Pr. v. Europa doesn’t fit any more in the time-table resulting a decline in class – but remaining G1-l-status.

    Yes, you are right: there is no necessity for the GP. v. Bayern former ARAL-Pokal as those German top-3yo’s first start after the Derby is the GP. v. Baden with an option for a later race abroad. But the German Jockey Club (DVR) does not want to cancel this race now at Munich because they don’t want to lose a G1-event. What happens is clear: a sub-standard G1-race = > but the winner is happy: a G1-win easy to reach!

    #411769
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1569

    I have not got the pattern ratings for European group 1 races 2008-11 but looking at the figures for 2000-07 the Preis von Europa has been well below Group 1 standard and must be in danger of demotion. Obviously each National turf authority will defend its own races but a substitution of Group 1 filly and mare event might be a logical step.
    In the UK there are races that could attain a higher status but it could also be argued that the Kings Stand and the Nunthorpe struggle to meet the criteria. Horse Racing in Europe thrives on offering diversity, so running all group 1 races at Ascot, Longchamp or the Curragh is not necessarily the way forward.

    #411773
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 9300

    I managed to back Snow Fairy at 16/1 before she won, but, having only just got back I don’t know what’s happening betting wise. Thanks for the reply about her, Eclipse; I hadn’t picked up on it as I still find this site painfully slow to trawl around. Wish I was going this year…

    #411777
    parlo
    Member
    • Total Posts 196

    I have not got the pattern ratings for European group 1 races 2008-11 but looking at the figures for 2000-07 the Preis von Europa has been well below Group 1 standard and must be in danger of demotion. Obviously each National turf authority will defend its own races but a substitution of Group 1 filly and mare event might be a logical step. .I.

    I think only the 2009-result of the PvE gives some problem concerning the G1-status of the race. The grading of races refers a 5-year-average of the first 4 horses’ handicap-ratings.

    Of course, it would be more useful to see a German G1 over 12 f in spring (Gerling-Preis, GP. d. Badischen Wirtschaft – this race over 11 f). The Grosse Hamsa-Preis is a candidate for G1 as well. But the race-tracks are not willing to spend the minimum prize-money for a G1-race.

    I would like to see a German G1 over 8 or 9 furlongs, but this would be a playground for foreign horses, no German-breds.

    Look at that "terrible" meeting at Baden-Baden with all major races so far won by foreign horses.

    ….

    Danedream did it more easly than I’d expected. Pastorius is a good horse, Novellist diappointed.

    #411792
    Ugly Mare
    Member
    • Total Posts 1294

    Interesting thoughts from you Parlo, thank you for contributing and informing us of the German position regarding these races.

    I don’t think Germany has had a top international horse for some time, before Danedream – who I absolutely adore. I remember Acatenango from years ago – he won so many races including Grand Prix de Saint Cloud and all those in Germany before Dancing Brave’s Arc, – that fantastic race. I feel he was the best German horse since the 1960’s, do you agree? – until Danedream came along….

    I also remember Orofino and he won many of those races too but disappointed in his Arc year when All Along won it…

    Star Appeal – forget it – just too much of a shock…
    am I missing any others?

    EF,
    I hope they don’t make that von Europa a filly and mare race, selfishly I have to say, as I don’t want anything to detract from the Arc. and a top filly at that distance should be routed towards that race as the Arc just seems to bring out the best in these fillies at that time of year, which is why I’ve never liked the Prix de l’Opera going up to Gr. 1, although 2000m it can take something away from the Arc.
    Even this year, you could easily put Snow Fairy in that race too and I wouldn’t like that….[neither would moehat I think :) ]

    so no, I don’t want more F + M races, not at that time of year. Maybe if they just put it down to gr.2…. conversely I do like the race name – Preis von Europa – a name like that should be a real championship event..

    #411794
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 9300

    …..they wouldn’t do that to me, would they..I searched for ages to find a bookies in Berwick on Tweed. Zut alors!

    #411810
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1569

    Interesting thoughts from you Parlo, thank you for contributing and informing us of the German position regarding these races.

    I don’t think Germany has had a top international horse for some time, before Danedream – who I absolutely adore. I remember Acatenango from years ago – he won so many races including Grand Prix de Saint Cloud and all those in Germany before Dancing Brave’s Arc, – that fantastic race. I feel he was the best German horse since the 1960’s, do you agree? – until Danedream came along….

    I also remember Orofino and he won many of those races too but disappointed in his Arc year when All Along won it…

    Star Appeal – forget it – just too much of a shock…
    am I missing any others?

    EF,
    I hope they don’t make that von Europa a filly and mare race, selfishly I have to say, as I don’t want anything to detract from the Arc. and a top filly at that distance should be routed towards that race as the Arc just seems to bring out the best in these fillies at that time of year, which is why I’ve never liked the Prix de l’Opera going up to Gr. 1, although 2000m it can take something away from the Arc.
    Even this year, you could easily put Snow Fairy in that race too and I wouldn’t like that….[neither would moehat I think :) ]

    so no, I don’t want more F + M races, not at that time of year. Maybe if they just put it down to gr.2…. conversely I do like the race name – Preis von Europa – a name like that should be a real championship event..

    I do not think there is any more need or room for group 1 filly and mare events either, however the race at Ascot on Champions day will undoubtedly end up so designated. In respect of the Opera it was upped in distance and the Sun Chariot reduced to a mile shortly after. Either way one of the races would offer an easy option for potential Arc fillies although in fairness, since the Opera was upgraded only Mandesha looked up to making an impression in that year’s Arc.

    #411836
    andyod
    Member
    • Total Posts 4012

    Is there any evidence to support those who bet against Danedream to repeat her demolition of the same bunch she beat last year?

    #411854
    Presto
    Member
    • Total Posts 315

    I don’t think Germany has had a top international horse for some time, before Danedream – who I absolutely adore. I remember Acatenango from years ago – he won so many races including Grand Prix de Saint Cloud and all those in Germany before Dancing Brave’s Arc, – that fantastic race. I feel he was the best German horse since the 1960’s, do you agree? – until Danedream came along….

    I also remember Orofino and he won many of those races too but disappointed in his Arc year when All Along won it…

    Star Appeal – forget it – just too much of a shock…
    am I missing any others?

    Shirocco is the best in recent years before Danedream, he was quickly snapped up by Andre Fabre. 4 length 3rd to Pride in Prix Foy then 4 length 4th in Hurricane Run’s Arc, then won the Breeders’ Cup Turf too. He beat Ouija Board in the Coronation Cup the following year, and in that year’s Prix Foy he got revenge and beat Pride and Hurricane Run. But ran last in the actual Arc.

    Borgia also went to Andre Fabre after he showed his ability, but he ran 3rd beaten 7 lengths in Peintre Celebre’s Arc, then a neck 2nd to El Condor Pasa in the following year’s Prix Foy (3 horse race though) before failing in Montjeu’s Arc. Snuck away with a HK Vase late.

    In the 90s, Silvano ran good races out east and in the USA, won a HK Cup, Singapore Cup, and Arlington Million plus a few placings. Epalo did something similar but only won one overseas G1.

    As for the Arc, get on Orfevre. One of Japan’s most talented horses ever. He’s quirky which has gotten him beaten in extraordinary circumstances, so he’s probably a bigger question mark than the average traveler (travelling around the world maybe only 35-45% of the top class horses reproduce their form). But if he shows his form I think he beats the field (except possibly Danedream). I’ve looked at his sectionals and think he can deal with below-average luck (wide gate, wide trip, overly slow or fast pace, etc.).

    #411862
    parlo
    Member
    • Total Posts 196

    Thanks, @Ugly Mare and @Presto for appreciation!

    Well, you must always consider that small mare-population in Germany – just some 2.200 mares. So champions on the turf "Made in Germany" must be a rarity.

    In former decades those few German tb-champions were often just unlucky that day, when they raced in a top-class international event!

    – Acatenango in the Arc and the KGVI&QE Stakes,
    – Orofino in the Ganay and the Arc,
    – Nebos with an unlucky race in the Arc due to the international inexperience of his rider,
    – Shirocco in the Arc, where – in my personal impression as an eye-witness that day – he was really betrayed,
    – Manduro injured just before the Arc with that race to his mercy,
    – Lomitas, who could have beaten that years Arc-winner referring his performance in the Preis v. Europa a week later (mind that German champion-trainers like H. Jentzsch and S. von Mitzlaff disliked travelling abroad in those days); later on Lomitas was poisoned and lost his form,
    – Luciano in Vaguely Noble’s Arc,
    – Lombard (trained by Jentzsch), who just failed in his 2 French races.
    – Lando was 4th in the Arc, but won the Japan Cup,
    – Monsun (trained by Jentzsch, too) had not that finishing speed necessary to win an Arc or something like that class,
    – Getaway in the Arc – I spoke to his angry travelling head-lad just after the race, who felt betrayed by Getaway’s rider not obeying the race-order given,

    Paolini and gelding Quijano were very good horses – even abroad in the US – but there was a certain deficite of top-class in them.

    – Star Appeal would never have won the Arc hadn’t he had an unconventionally thinking new owner. Many experts think that his 1975-Arc was a fluke-race, but he won the Eclipse that year and a G1 in Italy, too, and Allez France was over her top in the Arc, where those British champions Grundy and Bustino were unable to race due to their gruel KGVI&QE-battle (where Star Appeal competed, too).

    Don’t forget: Hurricane Run was bred and raised in Germany and sold to Coolmore after the Irish Derby.

    #411880
    Ugly Mare
    Member
    • Total Posts 1294

    hi Parlo,

    a fine battle of names you’ve provided there, I had missed a lot of those. For Shirocco and Hurricane Run, please see post below.

    If I get your meaning, I am puzzled that you think Acatenango was unlucky in Dancing Brave’s Arc…is this what you are saying? how was he unlucky in running? or do you mean just unlucky to be around at the same time as those… it was one of the better races wasn’t it….?

    ..now I understand about the Mares situation, so yes it would be good if they had more opportunities but there don’t seem to be enough of them at Gr. 1 level to warrant it, or is that unfair..?
    The better ones tend to go to France in any case, like Lady Marian who was quite good until she went to bin Suroor – and Night Magic who I followed for some time until Danedream sent her packing….

    I used to be very fond of old Salve Regina, do you remember her? I think she finished 2nd a lot and I was always so upset she rarely got her head in front… :)

    #411883
    Ugly Mare
    Member
    • Total Posts 1294

    …..

    Shirocco is the best in recent years before Danedream, he was quickly snapped up by Andre Fabre…………

    Borgia also went to Andre Fabre after he showed his ability, but he ran 3rd beaten 7 lengths in Peintre Celebre’s Arc, then a neck 2nd to El Condor Pasa in the following year’s Prix Foy (3 horse race though) before failing in Montjeu’s Arc. Snuck away with a HK Vase late………..

    As for the Arc, get on Orfevre. One of Japan’s most talented horses ever. He’s quirky which has gotten him beaten in extraordinary circumstances, so he’s probably a bigger question mark than the average traveler (travelling around the world maybe only 35-45% of the top class horses reproduce their form). But if he shows his form I think he beats the field (except possibly Danedream). I’ve looked at his sectionals and think he can deal with below-average luck (wide gate, wide trip, overly slow or fast pace, etc.).

    hey Presto….Shirocco, yes I had forgotten that one, but both he and Hurricane Run I tend to associate more with Fabre, as they both seemed to improve considerably for the transfer….
    I don’t think I can allow Germany to claim them at their very best….

    Borgia I loved – Silvano and Epalo – I wouldn’t put up there really…

    …too late with Orfevre – I’ve already done that one, but perhaps too many objectives would be my worry – getting him ready in time…. races in Japan and all that….?

    ..that’s being an armchair trainer of course… :)

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