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Not changing my best on Sea Moon and Orfevre but have added a small bet on St Nicholas Abbey…….I think Orfevre might just be in a different league to those who are left in but the Arc is the Arc. This might be run to suit St Nicholas Abbey who has the best home form by a mile.
If I was starting again I’d go for
1. St Nicholas Abbey
2. Orfevre
3. Sea MoonHope I’m wrong
starting to get the feeling there could be a massive upset in this weak looking arc, maybe some pacemaker shocking them all.
look into my crystal ball and it’s telling me ernest hemingway
The testing conditions at Longchamp certainly make the chance of an upset all the more greater.
Connections went as far as to say that Camelot ‘doesn’t even walk on that ground’ after his Irish Derby success on soft to heavy. Take that into consideration along with his St Leger exertions and he faces a stiff task against his elders for the first time.
Shareta ‘loves fast ground’ according to her trainer, and the current conditions have to be a major concern for last years runner-up. St Nicholas Abbey and Meandre, fifth and sixth in last seasons renewal, would also prefer better ground.
Sea Moon has never put his best hoof forward at the top level, but this is the first time he will have his preferred conditions, while Great Heavens – along with Masterstroke – will have no problem with the ground, but both will need to step up.
I’m going to take a chance on Secretariat winner, Bayrir. According to connections he was not fully fit when runner-up in the Prix Niel, and Christophe Lemaire was not overly hard on him. The ground has to be a slight concern for this son of Medicean, but he’s open to improvement and I have no reservations about inexperience after how well he coped with the journey to Arlington.
Meandre, a running on sixth last year, has upset Shareta before – albeit in much different circumstances – but he comes here in good heart and is very consistent. The ground is perhaps more testing than ideal, but he comes across as a likeable type who will run right to the line.
I hope Sea Moon wins, his win in the king george was amazing.
Think you have the wrong King, he didn’t win the King George, reckon you mean Edward.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Sea Moon didn’t win the Edward either Steve, it was the Hardwicke.
Value Is Everythingstarting to get the feeling there could be a massive upset in this weak looking arc, maybe some pacemaker shocking them all.
look into my crystal ball and it’s telling me ernest hemingway
I have to say I had completely overlooked him but as 250/1 shots go he does have quite a few positives, particularly if you know that he is over whatever has kept him off the track.
Easy to forget that he was the chosen one for the Dante and started favourite off the back of a win in a Dundalk maiden.
He is the least exposed in the field, is well drawn and looking at the way he hit the ground at Dundalk tomorrow’s conditions may well be a plus. Typically, he is beautifully bred although it is guesswork as to whether on testing ground he would be better suited by 1m2f or further.
Given a rather strange profile for a horse just expected to be a pacemaker he is at the very least an interesting runner.
starting to get the feeling there could be a massive upset in this weak looking arc, maybe some pacemaker shocking them all.
look into my crystal ball and it’s telling me ernest hemingway
I have to say I had completely overlooked him but as 250/1 shots go he does have quite a few positives, particularly if you know that he is over whatever has kept him off the track.
Easy to forget that he was the chosen one for the Dante and started favourite off the back of a win in a Dundalk maiden.
He is the least exposed in the field, is well drawn and looking at the way he hit the ground at Dundalk tomorrow’s conditions may well be a plus. Typically, he is beautifully bred although it is guesswork as to whether on testing ground he would be better suited by 1m2f or further.
Given a rather strange profile for a horse just expected to be a pacemaker he is at the very least an interesting runner.
i agree i like this one myself as i said in an earlier post dont know weather he will like the ground or not aiden o brien said before dante he would only run if ground was good or better so its hard to know but as you say at the price its worth a punt wouldnt be surprised to see him run a big race
The testing conditions at Longchamp certainly make the chance of an upset all the more greater.
Connections went as far as to say that Camelot ‘doesn’t even walk on that ground’ after his Irish Derby success on soft to heavy. Take that into consideration along with his St Leger exertions and he faces a stiff task against his elders for the first time.
Shareta ‘loves fast ground’ according to her trainer, and the current conditions have to be a major concern for last years runner-up. St Nicholas Abbey and Meandre, fifth and sixth in last seasons renewal, would also prefer better ground.
Sea Moon has never put his best hoof forward at the top level, but this is the first time he will have his preferred conditions, while Great Heavens – along with Masterstroke – will have no problem with the ground, but both will need to step up.
I’m going to take a chance on Secretariat winner, Bayrir. According to connections he was not fully fit when runner-up in the Prix Niel, and Christophe Lemaire was not overly hard on him. The ground has to be a slight concern for this son of Medicean, but he’s open to improvement and I have no reservations about inexperience after how well he coped with the journey to Arlington.
Meandre, a running on sixth last year, has upset Shareta before – albeit in much different circumstances – but he comes here in good heart and is very consistent. The ground is perhaps more testing than ideal, but he comes across as a likeable type who will run right to the line.
Surely there’s more chance of Orfevre handling the conditions than Meandre? One guy who was there said "When Orfevre came in he wouldn’t have blown out a candle and you wouldn’t have known he had a race" Meandre might be likeable but surely wherever he finishes it will be some way behind the Japanese horse?
Stall 7 for Great Heavnes, that’ll do nicely.
Lady Rothschild has more money than sense supplementing her. John Gosden must have thought oh goody I can lump my percentage on to the traveling costs
……I doubt if he would have forked out 100k if she were his own. Her price would have been 3 times what it is if Nathaniel had run and Buick wouldn’t have dreamed of riding her.I reckon she’s as slow as they come at picking up and horses like her don’t win Arc’s
To be honest she never quickened like the commentator said she did in Ireland. Was was goosed S Star went 2 lengths up then he stopped like shot and gained not one more inch on Was. She just outstayed a moderate bunch.
S Star failed to win again yesterday and the horse she was beaten by only finished a head in front of 40/1 shot Solemia in the French Oaks both of them finishing unplaced. So the form is pretty ordinary
I’ve always been a big fan of really good fillies like Zarkava Park Top Pebbles Zenyatta etc etc but this filly doesn’t even come close to anything that would have me giving her a cat in hells chance of wining an Arc.
Get ready with those rotten eggs Pants if I am wrong…I’ll hold my hands up and be the first to say well done if you are right
I just can’t have her at all
I think we could go through any number of horses who might not be good enough.
Great Heavens probably doesn’t possess a significant change of pace but is that really likely to be a key attribute under today’s conditions. You would expect her to handle conditions better than the vast majority and finish her race off. Perhaps she is too short but there are huge doubts about several of the others at the head of the market and if you don’t cope with the surface/draw you win nothing and many could easily end up trailing home.
HurdyGurdy man Couldn’t agree with you more.
Makes more sense than that post from Fely.
I thought Bayrir looked value but see that Lemaire prefers Shareta who seems to be improving at just the right time. I’ll back her as well as Yellow And Green.
This is just YAG’s 6th race but she should handle the ground. She is improving too but that needs to be balanced against her inexperience. She had an awful lot to do behind Shareta in the Prix Vermeille beaten just under 4L in 4th.
No bet for me. I was thinking of backing Camelot in a double with Star Spangled Banner.
I’m going to watch the race without punting instead and hope Camelot prevails. The ground is desperate. The sprint race was 3.5 secs outside of standard. A shame really as I would have liked to see Camelot run his race in decent ground.
Stall 7 for Great Heavnes, that’ll do nicely.
Lady Rothschild has more money than sense supplementing her. John Gosden must have thought oh goody I can lump my percentage on to the traveling costs
……I doubt if he would have forked out 100k if she were his own. Her price would have been 3 times what it is if Nathaniel had run and Buick wouldn’t have dreamed of riding her.I reckon she’s as slow as they come at picking up and horses like her don’t win Arc’s
To be honest she never quickened like the commentator said she did in Ireland. Was was goosed S Star went 2 lengths up then he stopped like shot and gained not one more inch on Was. She just outstayed a moderate bunch.
S Star failed to win again yesterday and the horse she was beaten by only finished a head in front of 40/1 shot Solemia in the French Oaks both of them finishing unplaced. So the form is pretty ordinary
I’ve always been a big fan of really good fillies like Zarkava Park Top Pebbles Zenyatta etc etc but this filly doesn’t even come close to anything that would have me giving her a cat in hells chance of wining an Arc.
Get ready with those rotten eggs Pants if I am wrong…I’ll hold my hands up and be the first to say well done if you are right
I just can’t have her at all
She’s got age allowance, sex allowance, decent draw, favoured ground, trainer having oustanding season particularly filly’s in big races, she’s unexposed…basically got plenty going for her, mind she’s way too short in the betting now at 6’s, am happy with 16/1 though.
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