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I think you need to stop pricing the outsiders up in that range Ginge. You had Dream Eater at 500/1 yesterday.
Morden wasn’t in the Weekender last week, making me wonder whether they had parted company, but he is back today. This week’s article is about making a book, and one of the problems mentioned is that of spread – having either the horses too cramped up together, or too spaced out. Bould Mover who was also a Ginge 500/1 finished a game 5th yesterday.
Presvis looks overpriced to me in what should be a strongly ran contest – have backed it accordingly – but it looks competetive so i’m no more than hopeful.
I think you need to stop pricing the outsiders up in that range Ginge. You had Dream Eater at 500/1 yesterday.
Morden wasn’t in the Weekender last week, making me wonder whether they had parted company, but he is back today. This week’s article is about making a book, and one of the problems mentioned is that of spread – having either the horses too cramped up together, or too spaced out. Bould Mover who was also a Ginge 500/1 finished a game 5th yesterday.
Euro,
My prices are a 100% WIN ONLY book. I don’t take any notice of a horse’s chance of a place. For Dream Eater to WIN he either had to improve 1 1/2 stones, or improve 10 lbs and rely on the top three Goldi, Rip and Paco all running well below form. How likely is that? Looking at how many times Dream Eater had run at a mile, it was highly unlikely Dream Eater would improve that much.
In my opinion, Dream Eater did produce his best performance, improving quite a bit. But knowhere near enough to trouble Paco and Goldi. At no stage in the race did I think Dream Eater would win. Am quite happy with my (without hindsight) assesment of 500/1, or 125/1 adding the equivelent of a bookies mark up.
Take a look at my thread in the Daily Lays And Plays, Think I am doing fairly well with my assesments.
Value Is Everything
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Like twice over in this but think weiner waltzer at 25-1 looks a cracking bet.
Even though he was destroyed by Byword last time out?
Like twice over in this but think weiner waltzer at 25-1 looks a cracking bet.
Totally agree Bulwark.
The trip last time too short and wasn’t enough of a test. It was his reappearance and should be fitter now. Hopefully he’ll be closer to the pace too.
Value Is EverythingEuro,
My prices are a 100% WIN ONLY book. I don’t take any notice of a horse’s chance of a place.
Fair enough.
I put the 100% book up to get some come back Euro. Any response is welcome, whether agreeing or not.
Thumbs up.
Value Is EverythingMy 100% book:
Byword 100/30,
Mawaatheeq
11/2, Twice Over 6/1,
Cavalryman
17/2,
Glass Harmonium
11/1, Presvis 14/1,
Allybar
15/1,
Wiener Walzer
15/1, Shalanaya 15/1, Tazeez 80/1, Debussy 80/1, Stimulation 400/1
With front runners doing so well, I’d add a bit to the prominent runners and take it off hold up horses.
Value Is EverythingByword travelled like a dream throughout. Twice Over was somewhat unlucky, if he had challenged earlier he would probably have won. Mawatheeq never really looked happy, perhaps something amiss there. Dunno what happened the Godolphin horses
Either Presvis has ‘gone’ or they could have put up a claimer and got the same result. Half-hearted drive and then appeared to want to give the impression the horse was unrideable from a furlong and a half out.
Byword travelled like a dream throughout. Twice Over was somewhat unlucky, if he had challenged earlier he would probably have won. Mawatheeq never really looked happy, perhaps something amiss there. Dunno what happened the Godolphin horses
I backed Prevsis, wasn’t up to that level.
Oh – My Word!
Cheers to – ‘Guyon le Doyen’! – & merci Andre!
The flag flies high once again…
I think Byword was the best horse in the race and it looked like Twice Over needs further
Byword has ran off a string of 3 very solid races now. Having won the Prix Muguet. He was the only horse in the field that ran any kind of meaningful race at all against Goldikova in the Prix d’Ispahan, where he finished 2nd. Then turned around and ran a great Prince of Wales Stakes for the win. Twice Over ran very well also for 2nd place. I knew Twice Over had ran well in the 09’Prince of Wales Stakes. But my hesitancy about him this year was him being off the track since the Dubai World Cup back in March. Tazeez also ran strong in the race, as did the German colt Wiener Walzer, and also Debussy. For me, the three huge disappointments of the race were, no doubt, Presvis, Cavalryman, and Allybar. I thought all three of those colts would run a much better Prince of Wales Stakes than they ultimately did.
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