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He is a knocking bet, and the best value bet in the race for me, but I still think he has to find improvement to beat the top two in the betting, a fast pace on quick ground you would expect Tartan Bearer to excel on, but he is too short for what he has achieved so far.
I’m strongly in the Vision d’Etat camp here and have had a good lump of the 3/1 NRNB. He’s the Group 1 winner and is arguably better than the bare from of the Ganay- nap of the week for me.
Yup, I agree with that Carvillshill, a big shock for me to find him only the 2nd favourite. The Zarkava-Arc form was one of the best races run in the past decade and still also-rans are coming out of it and winning top pattern races. Youmzain (2nd) and Ask (6th) were 1st and 2nd in the Coronation Cup, Vision D’Etat (5th) won the Ganay, Soldier of Fortune (3rd) did his best to lose the BC Turf and still finished 4th.
If there’s no pace it won’t bother him and I think the others may struggle to get near him.
Vision D’Etat for me as well. The best horse in the race on form. Should be favourite , good value.
Would always look to be prominent on the round course and with a strong possibility of a tactical race here will plump for Tazeez at a price back on quick ground and think he could find himself in a good position.
If Stoute/Moore stick to their usual run style with Tartan Bearer, he could well struggle to make 6/8 lengths up in the short straight on quick ground IMO.
I think Trincot could run a big race here. Last 2 races were pretty good and at 10/1 he is a decent each-way bet IMO.
I’m pretty suprised at that – Queene Anne looks more open than this, especially for a (albeit in my opinion softish looking) Group 1 winning miler.
I am relying Tartan Bearer’s battling qualities to see off the opposition.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Tazeez for me – decent group form at 9f in the Earl of Sefton and was an impressive winner of the Cambridgshire last year. Can forgive any horse one poor run on soft ground – in the D’Ispahan and have taken some of the 18/1 available with Bet365 each way. Don’t get what people see in Tartan Bearer, took a heck of a long time to get going last time out at Sandown and given he was beating a non-stayer in Pipedreamer it looked like he need at least another furlong, possibly two.
my points system
143 tartan bearer
142 vision d etat
136 twice over
133 never on sunday
128 virtual
127 trincot
121 tazeezwill back tatan bearer
110 estejoVision D’Etat @ 3/1 is the one for me. This is a quality animal that i feel might just have a little to much for the field, with the main danger being Trincot. Although it remains to be seen what Trincot being bought by Godolphin will do for it.
I can’t back down after yesterday’s massacre, so I’m confidently backing Vision D’Etat.
I think very little separates Tartan Bearer and Vision D’Etat for class, and if Estejo runs the race to only a steady gallop, I also think VD will have the tactical speed edge over TB.
His win in the Ganay was IMO pretty cruisy and he’ll be further improved from the run.
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I think your confidence needs rebooted to bring you back down to earth mate.
We have two horses here who both have a habit of doing things in their own time and never win their races by far.
I have no doubt this is Tartan Bearers best trip but he needs to be held up and come with a run. He doesn’t have a fantstic turn of foot and tends to get into a fight and there is always a chance something will do him.
Vision D´Etat is a very similar type who has been known to idle when hitting the front. I’ve backed him as a saver as I think this could go either way. I think the only reason I backed Tartan Beerer so early was to make sure TAPK never got one up on me
The fact these two run the way they do it brings Never on a Sunday and Twice Over into the reckoning.
The ground could be against Twice Over but he ran his best race for along time last time out. I think he’s been aimed too high in the past but Cecil is a master of brining out a lot of improvement in 4 year olds and he could now be good enough to shake these up. If the watering has eased a bit I would expect him to be right there at the finish.
Never on a Sunday will no doubt hit the front at some point and go for home. I watched him on video and it was quite a soft looking race he won and he may find these 3 a bit moe than he can handle.
My crystal ball
tells me Twice Over will run a good race here and be leading going into or before the final furlong. Vision D´Etat to head him but Twice Over to fight back only to be headed by Tartan Bearer in the last 150yds. 1. Tartan Bearer 2. Twice Over 3. Vision D´Etat
3:45 Prince Of Wales:
The keys here I believe are going and pace.
Tartan Bearer has a good turn of foot and acts well on a firm surface. He won on his reappearance despite giving Pipe Dreamer first run, held up in a slowly run race. Better than the distances suggest. Lightly raced and may have more improvement to come.If this was on a soft surface I’d make Vision D’Etat favourite. Did win on a firm surface in the Prix Neil but only just got home. There’s not much evidence to go on, but so far has better form with give. Won well enough last time. Gives me the impression of a stayer at this trip and a slowly run race may be against him.
Never On A Sunday is improving (needs to) and comes from a stable in blinding form. IF he’s as good on this surface as on soft could give the main two a race. Unraced on a firm surface.
Twice Over ran well in the Champion last year on a similar surface but seemed ill at ease on it in the Earl Of Sefton. Ran well at a mile last time when leading early in the Lockinge but that was a poor Group 1. Has a chance if racing prominently at this longer trip.
Virtual beat Twice Over and does stay this trip, but that was on a soft surface and has run poorly on a firm surface before. Stable seems in poor form too which is also a bad sign for…
Tazeez who won the Earl Of Sefton before running a stinker in France. Unlikely to be good enough but is capable of racing prominently.
Trincot was second in a Group 1 in Italy on first start for Godolphin. Doesn’t look good enough to win a good Group 1 like this. More exposed than most and stable form a worry.
Esejo is the front runner in the field but it is not in his best interests to go quick. Only 6th of 8 behind Trincot in Rome. No chance unless they allow him an easy, long lead.
My 100% book
Tartan Bearer 13/8, Vision D’Etat 100/30
, Never On Sunday 11/2, Twice Over 12/1, Trincot 16/1, Virtual 16/1, Tazeez 40/1, Esejo 400/1.
Have backed Tartan Bearer, may well save on Vision d’Etat.
Mark
Value Is EverythingI like the two Gosden horses here. I think Virtual needs the step up in trip (despite winning a Lockinge) and the ground should really suit Tazeez, who has run some fast times on a similar surface, and is likely to get an easy lead. How he is twice the price of Twice over, who he beat very comfortably in the Earl of Sefton, I do not know.
tells me Twice Over will run a good race here and be leading going into or before the final furlong. Vision D´Etat to head him but Twice Over to fight back only to be headed by Tartan Bearer in the last 150yds. 
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