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“the winner probably hasn’t suddenly become a 125 kind of horse they are all 120 ish which is poor for Group 1 standards for older horses at this trip. ”
Agreed
imo You’re not taking enough notice of it being a slowly run race, TTM.
In a slowly run race it is difficult for hold up horses to make much ground up even on (slightly) inferior rivals.. (Bay Bridge had a Timeform rating only 4 lbs ahead of State Of Rest going in to the race.) Trying to quicken sufficiently to make ground up whilst the one in front is still quickening. Bay Bridge did well to get as close as he did.
Value Is EverythingI never take any notice of what trainers and jockeys say – their word is anything but gospel, the race times tell you more about the ground than what a jockey (often influenced by how well their horse ran) says, for example.
Remember, if you don’t hold a ticket, you can’t win a prize and over the years I’ve seen countless horses run in the wrong ground and/or at the wrong trip because you can’t as a trainer earn a prize money percentage by withdrawing.
That said, I’m not interested in what Timeform or Kevin Blake say either.
Neither are infallible and both operate in the public domain and influence the market too much.
It’s independent views, I like.
I’m sure we all have minds of our own so maybe we could use them more – less quoting others and more quoting ourselves.
Rant over!
OR are worth discussion because by their very nature they influence racing – especially in Handicaps – but they make loads of errors too.
Good race ride here by the winning jockey, not so good from one or two of the others.
I don’t think Bay Bridge has run to the level of his previous win because of the ground and the pace of the race – he was simply giving the winner an easy lead and a headstart in what devolved into a sprint finish.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I appreciate what you are saying Ginge but it is all hypothetical to say that Bay Bridge would have definitely won a well run contest, what I’m saying is he’s got 3F to close what isn’t that significant a gap, clearly in a steadily run contest he is vulnerable to something that can get into top gear quicker or is better positioned tactically but as I pointed out he’s not sat stone last 6L back by any stretch. The reality is the pool of G1 horses at the trip is very small, you are bound to get small fields in the Eclipse, Juddmonte etc… no matter what the prize money is because the quality of horse isn’t there. I’d wager that if/when Baaeed moves up he’ll scare off a lot of the opposition at this trip as well if he proves half decent at it. Bay Bridge may not stay 12F we don’t know yet so it is a bit of a dilemma for Sir Michael.
Ian on your point worth noting Timeform are owned by Flutter (SkyBet, Betfair etc) but then all the racing media are in the bookies back pocket, is anyone truly independent?
We are independent here at TRF – only our views matter.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"That’s why its gambling and not investing ginge as we don’t ride the horses, train the horses, own the horses or set the pace
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
“I’m sure we all have minds of our own so maybe we could use them more…”
“That’s why its gambling and not investing…”
Two of THE most insightful comments that I have ever read on this Forum, bar none! And both in the same thread, kudos to both of you…
“I appreciate what you are saying Ginge but it is all hypothetical to say that Bay Bridge would have definitely won a well run contest”,
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That is not what I am saying at all, TTM. We’ll never know for certain what would’ve happened in a well run contest because we didn’t get one.
It’s just that if I’m working out a race in the future… State Of Rest can not imo be considered a better racehorse (ie with a better rating) than Bay Bridge or Shahryar on yesterday’s performance. Because there are reasons why one is flattered by the result and others did not give of their best. That said, obviously if they all met again at 10f on that ground State Of Rest’s chance may be considered better than the others if (and only IF) there’s very likely to be no pace again with SOR dictating.
Important to remember who wins is not all about ratings. So although State Of Rest will not have as good a rating as Bay Bridge or Shahryar, when calculating future races I will allow for the plus points of State Of Rest’s Prince Of Wales display and the negatives of others. SOR is consistent and not beholden to tactics (a great asset) and as genuine as they come. Pretty much knew before the race, but this confirmed Bay Bridge is likely to have less chance than his rating suggests if there’s likely to be little pace in the race. Pacemaker could make a difference but does the owner have one good enough? As far as Shahryar is concerned 10f would be a negative in future, although having said that I doubt Demuro will make the same mistake again. This race can almost be forgotten about in calculating Shahryar’s chance back at 12f. etc.
Value Is EverythingDo bookmakers gamble or do they invest? If bookmakers can invest then it’s possible for a punter.
Those punters who understand the Mathematics Of Betting – and are good at evaluating form into chance – can invest.
Value Is EverythingBookmakers gamble although they don’t lay much these days and don’t stick their necks out as prices across the board are near enough all the same
Look at betbright and other micky mouse firms gone bust
The big guy done his bollocks laying Dettori
investments can go tits upGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Of course it is possible but its never a guarantee so its still a gamble
Bookies shouldn’t be going tits up to be fair as they have the guaranteed legal heroin to feed punters ie the slot machines. I’m wondering if something has happened regard how many they are allowed in shops. Both William Hill and Ladbrokes have dropped a shop where I live and I’m wondering if the amount of machines is for the company of a town/city rather than a shop. I doubt it is but find it strange that a unlimited cash cow close a shopGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
“Evaluating form into chance” is not investing but gambling, by definition. Here’s a good, recent (June 1, 2022) article that explains very well the difference between investing vs gambling.
This in a nutshell:
“…Only one variable distinguishes investing from gambling: The probability of losing on a gamble always exceeds the probability of gain; in investing, the probability of a gain is expected to exceed the probability of a loss….”
“investments can go tits up
Of course it is possible but its never a guarantee so its still a gamble”———————
Being in any business is an investment if done wisely.
Being in any business can be financially insecure, but the risks can be worth taking if the risk and possible reward are properly calculated. But you’re right there is no guarantee of success. Good investments can go wrong, if you offered me 3/1 about heads in a (fair) coin toss it would be a bloody good investment for me, but it still might come down tails.Any individual investment on a throw of a coin toss or horse can go “tits up” and there is “never a guarantee” it will win. Does not mean it wasn’t a good investment. The success of any individual bet does not matter in the overall picture. If a punter wins more than 20% of his 4/1 bets, more than 40% of his 6/4 bets, more than 2% of his 50/1 bets etc etc… then he / she is pretty sure of making an overall profit.
ie “Those punters who understand the Mathematics Of Betting – and (just as importantly) are good at evaluating form into chance – can invest”.
It’s those percentages you love so much again, Nathan.
Value Is Everything“…Only one variable distinguishes investing from gambling: The probability of losing on a gamble always exceeds the probability of gain; in investing, the probability of a gain is expected to exceed the probability of a loss….”
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Exactly.
…And is the very reason why it is possible to make a profit from investing in sports betting.Because unlike a roulette wheel etc nobody knows for certain the chance of any horse / team etc, it is just opinion.
Value Is EverythingTurk’,
If a bookmaker’s odds compiler believes all four horses in a race have the same chance of winning then he believes all 4 have a 25% (fair 3/1) chance of winning. Because 4 x 25 = 100.
The bookmaker then adds his mark up percentage and in a competitive market offers the punter 11/4 all runners. 11/4 is equal to 26.67% so 4 x 26.67 = working to a 106.68% book.However, if I disagree with the odds compiler and believe:
A has a 22% chance (fair 7/2)
B has a 20% chance (fair 4/1)
C has a 23% chance (fair 100/30)
and D has a 35% chance (fair 15/8)
(22 + 20 + 23 + 35 = 100%)… Then D is a good investment for me because getting 11/4 about what I believe is a fair 15/8 (35%) chance is a bloody good bet.
The thing is as I said earlier, a punter needs to be good at evaluating form into chance. For any punter not good at evaluating then if he believes a horse has a 35% chance it will probably be a wrong evaluation, as will other evaluations.
If a punter is good at evaluating form into chance then he / she will make an overall profit exactly because – as you say of an investment – “the probability of a gain is expected to exceed the probability of a loss….”
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Value Is Everything
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