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Sometimes a price makes it good enough to take a chance the jockey will do the right thing.
Shahryar @ 4/1 is too big to ignore, especially each way.
…And Evens is ridiculous about a horse who may not be suited by ground and positioning. Laid it a little.
Value Is EverythingIstabraq,
Lord North missed a lot of last year after breaking a blood vessel in winning in Dubai. Presumably that had something to do with his absence.
Officially “Good”, but both Dubai victories broke Racing Post Standard. So today’s ground shouldn’t be much firmer – if at all.
Value Is Everything“And Evens is ridiculous about a horse who may not be suited by ground and positioning.”
Can’t imagine positioning being an issue. There are only 5 runners. I am expecting the turbo to kick in like last time ;o)
I’m joining GT on Lord North, even though I don’t usually like horses that have previously bled.
“Can’t imagine positioning being an issue. There are only 5 runners. I am expecting the turbo to kick in like last time” ;o)
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We saw yesterday how Coroebus struggled to make up a length and a half on a horse with vastly inferior ability, Mike. On ratings Bay Bridge hasn’t much (if anything) in hand, usually races from the rear and sometimes takes a keen hold… So could easily be 2 lengths behind in a five horse race.
In a slowly run race positional disadvantage is difficult to make up.
Bay Bridge still has twice as much chance as any other horse, but given the horse’s record Evens is imo far too short and worth laying win or lose..
Value Is EverythingThe ultra fast ground is the big unknown with Bay Bridge as he is quite a thickset horse through the shoulders, to me though he is the only one potentially stil open to even more improvement on his current form as a typical Stoute late developing older horse.
Meanwhile ground condition will be right up the Japanese horse’s alley (he has even won on firm in Japan) and I think he is also the most likely pace angle but his Meydan neck defeat of Yibir (beaten twice since) doesn’t read as well now and less than 2L covered the first 7 home in that race.
After the Sheema Classic Yibir ran in a slowly run Jockey Club Stakes which didn’t help his style, yet still comes out best in the weights.
Then went to USA and the Group 1 Man O War, very slowly out and was 10 lengths behind the winner after they’d gone a furlong. Only beaten 1 1/4 lengths.
Value Is EverythingOn the quicker ground horses on the front tend not to come back to you as much as they do on the slower ground – Dettori needs training on how to remove a hood…took him 3 goes before he managed it, I doubt connections will be amused.
Bay Bridge ran well (does he always carry his head to one side like that?) but I do think he probably wants a little more juice in the ground to be most effective – not sure what to make of the Japanese horse’s run, perfectly positioned but found absolutely nothing when asked and I would imagine if he pushed the pace he would have beaten further.
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