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Pricewise tipping strategy

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  • #3997
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    This is long but may be of interest!

    wonder what you all think

    <br>mel cullinan (pricewise) gave an interview in the rp at the end of last year,listing 30 ways to improve your betting .

    1 You can win betting on sprint handicaps

    Far from being unfathomable these events can be good betting mediums, particularly with fields up to 16 runners. Paying attention to handicap marks is crucial.

    2 Stamina is the key to the Derby

    The Derby is a good race to try to unravel since the market is largely governed by unreliable factors such as form over a mile and the horse’s trainer. Staying power is the single most important determinant in finding the winner.

    3 Always identify and follow 7f specialists

    More than any other distance on the flat, this is a specialist trip. Look for horses who excel at it.

    4 Be wary of wide-margin winners

    Most punters simply love easy wide-margin winners, but for the discerning there is often money to be made opposing them. A horse’s chance should be assessed in the light of their overall career record, not one flashy success, to which the market often overreacts.

    5 Unlucky last-time-out losers are often overbet

    Backers usually go overboard about a horse widely perceived to have been unlucky in a previous start. Take a more measured view of things – it’ll pay off long term.

    6 Oppose selling race winners in nurseries

    Year after year selling race winners are raised in grade and, with last-time-out 1s beside their name, are popular in the betting, only to fail.

    7 A wide draw in a sprint handicap can be a plus

    Despite the seeming dictates of common sense, results at some tight tracks – notably Bath and, to an extent, Pontefract – show that horses from outside draws have an advantage. Consult Topdraw.

    8 Follow top jockeys in big handicaps

    Jockeyship is a pivotal factor in the major flat handicaps, especially at anything up to middle distances. If the emphasis is on split-second decisions, quick-thinking, nerve and strength are crucial, and top riders win a high proportion of such races.

    9 Recently gelded horses must be opposed

    A big negative often overlooked by both pundits and the betting public. Use the Racing Post’s Signposts feature to identify horses gelded since their last run, and cross them out if this is within the last four months or so as their training programme must have been interrupted.

    10 Don’t underestimate big handicap form

    Follow top handicappers when they move to Listed and Group 3 level. There is no clear blue water between the top handicaps and Pattern races, yet the betting market often underestimates horses graduating from handicap company.

    11 Beware ‘promising’ once-raced maidens

    Horses who run an eye-catching first race in defeat are often sent off at too short a price next time and should usually be avoided. Horses with a Timeform ‘P’, to identify a progressive animal, frequently start at unrealistic prices. They tend to be shockingly bad betting mediums.

    12 Never bet in maiden handicaps

    There is no worse betting medium. It is virtually impossible to assess the majority of the runners, who, by definition, have usually been down the field in their previous outings. This is betting shop fodder, best left alone.

    13 Avoid Listed fillies races

    Highly dubious betting mediums that should be avoided. This type of race frequently throws up results that are difficult to fathom, with the form very hard to weigh up in hindsight.

    14 Don’t ignore second strings in big races

    They win more than expected – often at inflated prices. Ignore the hype and make it pay.

    15 Give Brighton a wide berth

    Near the top of the list of flat tracks where backers should be wary. By and large the results of all but the most uncompetitive races at Brighton are not conducive to rational analysis, with the course producing more than its share of difficult-to-fathom results. Other tracks offer better betting opportunities.

    16 Follow apprentices in small field sprints

    It generally makes sense not to take apprentice claims into account, but it can pay to make an exception in sprint handicaps of up to about 12 runners. These contests provide less of a tactical, decision-making test for apprentices than the cut-and-thrust of bigger fields.

    17 Pay utmost respect to long-absent jumpers

    Many people dismiss a long-absent jumper out of hand, taking the view that a long break will count as a big negative, particularly in a stamina test over the jumps. However, the sight of a horse coming back from a season off (or even longer) and winning first time back over jumps is a far from uncommon occurrence, much more so than on the flat.

    18 Autumn is time for best fresh jumpers

    Every autumn, scores of horses win on their seasonal debut over jumps and lose their form to various extents afterwards. Then they return the following season and win again first time out – frequently at decent prices thanks to their deteriorating form the previous season.

    19 Oppose ex-pointers in novice hurdles

    Unless stamina is at a premium, it usually pays to oppose ex-pointers when they are up against horses with half-decent flat or hurdles form in novice hurdles. Usually these types aren’t quick enough to win.

    20 Look out for lower profile trainers

    Apart from collateral form, the single biggest influence on a horse’s position in the betting is the identity of the trainer. This works two ways, inasmuch as runners from highly fashionable stables are usually heavily overbet, but it also gives us an angle, because some very capable trainers are underestimated.

    21 Avoid long-distance chases in the mud

    Because staying power is far away the most important factor and heavily outweighs anything else, these races, particularly in testing ground are simply too arduous for most four- and five-year olds. The ground is a crucial proviso with this maxim – on good ground, marathon chases are actually an interesting betting medium.

    22 Note top-weights in some jump handicaps

    This is one to note at lesser tracks especially in single-figure fields, which mean races are likely to be run at an ambling gallop early on, thus making easier the concession of weight. If the race in question is on a sharp track, so much the better. However, at the top tracks there is much less mileage in following the class.

    23 Don’t rule out ‘ungenuine’ horses

    <br>Often these types win more than their share of races. Judge the horse on the facts of their career- and win-record, not on a preconceived prejudice.

    24 2m handicap hurdles are good to bet on

    They are competitive enough to ensure a nice-priced winner more often than not and, usually being run at a true pace, the most deserving horse tends to win. Past form is also more reliable.

    25 Avoid ageing chasers in decent handicaps

    They don’t win nearly as often as their younger counterparts, although they are often still worth considering over marathon distances.

    26 Watch out for Chepstow

    A law unto itself – only back horses there who are proven on similarly very demanding and undulating tracks. Be wary of form achieved at Uttoxeter, too.

    27 Watch out for Wolverhampton

    Results regularly have little rhyme or reason, particularly with older-age races.

    28 Forgive a poor run at Towcester

    On soft ground the track can be so testing that it is simply beyond the capabilities of most horses to even finish their race there, so look out for something that may have been in contention for a long way or even possibly pulled up.

    29 Avoid inexperienced horses over fences

    Forget about rumours of a horse schooling well – the demands of winning chases at racing pace are altrogether different. Some winners will be missed but so will bucketloads of losers, including many at unfeasibly short prices.

    #92391
    Smithy
    Member
    • Total Posts 720

    Some relevant, others not so – his point about 7f specialists is particularly useful IMO.

    #92392
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    bloody hell TDK…does it matter?

    Ive always gone along with a few of these…Others im less sure about

    #92399
    Smithy
    Member
    • Total Posts 720
    #92400
    ricky lake
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2358

    Pricewise is now a joke . Mel C and  Henry Rix were exceptional tipsters  during their tenure with the racing post ,

    The racing post is now an overpriced waste of space, David Ashforth apart is is awful !!

    Avoid  pricewise  and stick to your own opinion

    Ricky

    #92401
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    The spotlight summaries are poor too

    Recently someone was writing about "gooduns" and "behind the cracks" (which got me wondering)

    Whats all that about?

    I prefer to amke up my own mind of course and maybe im old fashioned, but this sounded like muttered rubbish from a betting shop pond life specimen

    #92402
    Irish Stamp
    Member
    • Total Posts 3181

    Noticed it doesn’t mention ex pointers in bumpers which worries me as i think they’re to be steered clear of.

    Hunters in handicaps is a good one to take note of amongst others.

    Normally avoid certain trainers who i know like there horses to have a run round at the back in preparation for a good run in a handicap.

    On the flat i always look at the one 10f 3yo handicap at one of my locals – Haydock.  Been won by Holding Court, Leilani and a listed winner from last year in the past and certain races as preps for others.

    Martin

    #92403
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    and the racing post website is excellent too

    And free!

    (for now)

    #92404
    Ollie
    Member
    • Total Posts 82

    Clivex,<br>Thanks for posting the full list of maxims as I hadn’t seen all of them previously. In general I think they are interesting and useful. Not sure I agree with 21 though, I think long distance chases in soft ground can be a useful betting medium as the field can often be whittled down to only a handful of credible contenders. Also can’t understand why the RP (and ATR) come in for so much stick, they both provide an excellent service. The wealth of statistical information in the RP is incredible and useful eg course jockey/trainer stats, trf, trainerform compare to the sporting lifeand chronicle the amount of info at one’s disposal is excellent although I accept currently most of this can be obtained (currently free) from the website. Whilst ATR’s coverage at times is patchy and some of the presenters tedious, getting being able to see the full card for most meetings, being able to see the smaller meetings (which both avoid trips to smokey bookies) and having the advantage of french racing and  replays is fantastic.

    (Edited by Ollie at 7:41 am on Jan. 4, 2004)

    #92405
    ricky lake
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2358

    Racing post website is very good , cannot believe it will be free for much longer"!!. but the paper at 1.30 is a rip off , put simply  there is very little to read

    I go racing  4/ 5 times a week , i used to buy it as a racecard  , but got a printer and in truth I just use the web now

    It is a very bad read !!!

    ricky

    #92406
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    I would pay for the RP website (but dont tell them). the form links are fabuolous

    Agree ollie with all your post. Not sure i agree with all the maxims and some are alittle too obscure or low grade for me to test, but its  still suprising that so called expert pundits still lean against the Derby, 7f and inexperienced jumpers ones (which I do strongly agree with)

    ATR is a blessing…warts and all..and after the horrible recent rantings of the c4 team (well Francome anyway)and the awful carson on BBC , its a welcome alternative

    #92407
    Maurice
    Participant
    • Total Posts 355

    I understand Raceform and Postmark (changed to RPR at the turn of the year) have been one and the same for some time, so there should be no difference in the figures.

    I subscribe Peak Season to the form book and it is, in my opinion, the best value of all the major publications. A few changes are scheduled for this year, including the change to A4 format (I have reservations about that). Not cheap and you need to be punting to reasonable stakes (min £20 a go) to offset the annual costs, assuming you do make a profit. But better value than Timeform or Raceform interactive (both ridiculously expensive) or Superform (unreliable ratings).

    As for the Racing Post being value, I suppose it depends on what you want from your paper. I buy it on Saturdays and for the big televised meetings but that’s it. I don’t read training centre twaddle or previews of races. I only buy it for the Pricewise odds comparison, the cards themselves and the Spotlight synopses (just to check for going preferences, etc.).

    I can’t help thinking they would close-to-double their circulation if they halved the price.

    #92408
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    With reference to the original post by clivex there are many many long term profitable trends to follow. <br> For example in the golf just backing Tiger Woods in every game he starts in would have made an overall profit. This is acheived in the end by the prices offered whilst he his supposedly having a bad run. <br>Wih horse racing just following Marcus Tregoning when his horses are favourite produces good overall level stake profit (for each of the last 4 seasons) the same as with Don Cantillons horses both on the flat and NH. Richard Hills and Tregoning make overall profits as a rule. Gary Moore does very when when the horse is racing in a seller for the very first time. <br>Much more specific than just stating avoid Brighton, Wolverhampton for example.

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