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Maybe a couple of years ago, GT, but that’s not the case now. Nobody’s piling into Segal’s tips on his say-so nowadays – he isn’t respected by the market.
I don’t think his tips are being leaked. I deal with this every week and I always have full visibility over Oddschecker and the exchange. I’d know if there was any funny business like that – a freaky unexplained mover 5pm-8pm in such a well-developed market would stick out like a sore thumb.
Typical course of events nowadays:
Ben Linfoot tips at 6pm on the Sporting Life website. His selections tend to shorten 1 or 2 pts, especially if in a big handicap.
Tom Segal then tips at 8pm on the Racing Post website. Generally, he’ll select at least one Linfoot tip at a price that now only exists in the grids (no further movement generated by Pricewise) and he’ll put up a couple of his own, which don’t tend to budge on the exchange at all. Pricewise just isn’t very influential nowadays. I was on the late shift a couple of Fridays ago, absent-mindedly nipped out for a Greggs at 19:55, came back to my desk at 20:10 and all hell hadn’t broken lose on the ITV races.
These people don’t know one end of a horse from the other. Despite what some say, bookmakers are only too willing to lay straight bets. For win singles, we’ll lay you to lose at least £5,000 in the ITV guarantee, at least £2,000 on any Class 4+ and at least £500 on any UK or Irish race by terms of the guarantee. Try it – it’s a promise no matter who you are. Every day. However, bookmakers are understandably not happy to play the sucker for some chopper with a shopping list of arbs and a Betfair account who stops in en route to their daily fumble through the ‘Reduced!’ bin at Asda.
Hmmmm,
Is this a new guarantee, LS? Is it for telephone clients too?
I am never an arber and only deal in singles, but gave up on my Corals telephone account years ago. My intended stake (which was nowhere near the stakes you’re talking about) constantly reduced for any horse you were top price. At the time your advertised “minimum bet” was £10, yet my normal sized bets were invariably restricted by Corals, often down to under £10. Once, they even wanted to take the full £10 “minimum” from my bank – even though it was them who were restricting me to a fiver! tbh I can understand bookmakers limiting size of bets for Pricewise tips – to allow more punters to get on – but these were only my own judgement.You can’t talk for all bookmakers. I’ve had letters from Stan and Victor to say I am not welcome on phone, internet or at their shops. So some bookmakers won’t allow any type of bet from winning accounts.
Value Is EverythingNothing new, GT. It has been going since December 2014 for the TV races, extended in 2015 for the Class 4+ and again in 2016 for the other races. Applies in-shop only from 11am each day. ITV Racing guarantee is from 9am.
I believe you about the restrictions and I know you’re not an arber. I do think the bookmaker v punter relationship suffers with this sort of thing – analytics guys make judgments on accounts with far too much weight being put on how often someone beats the SP. You need much more than one statistic to understand a person’s racing account – notes from a horse racing trader on each bet ideally.
Prices cut immediately after the word out on his selections and backed down to prices Tom probably would no longer regard as value.
Full article here
To be honest, Segal hasn’t been doing himself any favours on this score. Especially in the last year when he has been under pressure, he has often been following-in Ben Linfoot’s tips or putting up selections that have already moved 2-4pts between the time of us sending prices to the Racing Post (5pm) and initial publication of the Pricewise column to racingpost.com (8pm). Numerous times during the major festivals, he also copied Hugh Taylor’s tips (also published at 6pm during Cheltenham & Royal Ascot).
It’s not often that Segal moves the markets alone nowadays. It’s rarely true that bookmakers are slashing prices on the back of his tips – he just has a habit of putting up selections at prices that only exist in the grids by 8pm! Renneti in the Prix Royal-Oak on Sunday was a ‘Segal original’ and it barely even wobbled at 8pm, even on the exchange in a market with very little liquidity.
To be fair, just because one person is technically the first to tip a horse up does not mean the second or third person “copied”. Inevitable when tipping horses based on Value that the same selections are often put up independently by good judges.
In this digital age and with bookmakers not guaranteeing taking prices (and with those guarantees often meaning little or nothing)… Unfortunately Pricewise and others “Value” tipster like Hugh Taylor will no longer be effective.
Pricewise, Kealy, Taylor and others will sometimes agree simply because of incredible reports from the gallops for a horse with a highly respected trainer.
You might see just one sentence in their column such as ” he’s been catching pigeons ” and then other comments about his form, breeding etc but the overriding factor in why that horse is being tipped is the word from the gallops and their contacts at the stables.I’ve never met Segal but he switches from one thing to another when writing his column. Trainer form, horse form, jockey, the manner in which it finished a race last time and is being stepped up in trip. When you listen to him on the Racing Post podcast, he refers to whispers and word of mouth far more often than in his column.
If someone says, “I’ve heard from one of my contacts horse X is burning up the gallops”, punters tend to think “wow! Must act on that information”.
If someone says, “I’ve studied the form for a couple of hours, horse X is well-in and should be a lot shorter price”, punters tend to think “get a life”. 😉
Value Is EverythingNothing new, GT. It has been going since December 2014 for the TV races, extended in 2015 for the Class 4+ and again in 2016 for the other races. Applies in-shop only from 11am each day. ITV Racing guarantee is from 9am.
I believe you about the restrictions and I know you’re not an arber. I do think the bookmaker v punter relationship suffers with this sort of thing – analytics guys make judgments on accounts with far too much weight being put on how often someone beats the SP. You need much more than one statistic to understand a person’s racing account – notes from a horse racing trader on each bet ideally.
Does that mean Corals would welcome me having a large bet between those times in your shops, LS. Despite me having massive restrictions put on me over the phone and internet?
Not just “beating SP” – Let’s face it in these days of higher SP over-rounds – most punters must beat SPs. I was told by a Stan James PR man they closed my account because my average winner beat SP by more than 20%. Apparently nothing to do with being a winning account, or even how much I’d taken from them (which wasn’t much).
Value Is EverythingAbsolutely GT, come and give it a go. Would be nice to have someone on here vouch for the guarantee being exactly as advertised.
Does that mean Corals would welcome me having a large bet between those times in your shops, LS. Despite me having massive restrictions put on me over the phone and internet?
How would they know who you were? Are 2 forms of identification (one with your full name and address on) required to place a bet in shops these days? Or are wanted posters of you with the warning “Do not take bets from this person” plastered all over betting shops throughout Britain?
I find it odd that someone who is supposed to value, value so much appears to know little or nothing of guarantees of up to £5k dating back to 2014 with Corals. Maybe your sub-conscious realises how worthless the guarantees really are, even if your conscious is oblivious.
Yeats, have you ever placed a bet? You’ve been caught out twice in recent months – you didn’t know what an Industy SP is and you were embarrassed by Cav when you were miles away in your conception of morning exchange liquidity. It looks like you’ve never been in a betting shop and don’t use Betfair. You’d think those would be minimum qualifications for your self-appointed role as industry policeman…
It really looks like you don’t know what you’re talking about and I’d suggest you’re in no position to comment on industry matters. You slate all sorts of things and claim false advertising but you really don’t know, do you?
I’ve never seen a single complaint about the guarantee. In more than three years, especially with keyboard warriors like you around, don’t you think there would have been an ASA case or a JFP story if it wasn’t being honoured? I hope Cav, GT, Mr Han or one of the other bonafide large-staking punters on here will try the guarantee and vouch for it.
Can I count on you for an apology at that point?
Yeats, have you ever placed a bet? You’ve been caught out twice in recent months – you didn’t know what an Industy SP is and you were embarrassed by Cav when you were miles away in your conception of morning exchange liquidity. It looks like you’ve never been in a betting shop and don’t use Betfair. You’d think those would be minimum qualifications for your self-appointed role as industry policeman…
It really looks like you don’t know what you’re talking about and I’d suggest you’re in no position to comment on industry matters. You slate all sorts of things and claim false advertising but you really don’t know, do you?
I’ve never seen a single complaint about the guarantee. In more than three years, especially with keyboard warriors like you around, don’t you think there would have been an ASA case or a JFP story if it wasn’t being honoured? I hope Cav, GT, Mr Han or one of the other bonafide large-staking punters on here will try the guarantee and vouch for it.
Can I count on you for an apology at that point?
I’m struggling to find anything in that post is true or fact.
The best you hoped for in your previous post was one person to vouch for your guarantee?
Has anyone ever questioned your guarantee?The fact is there just is no value in it.
As I’m sure you’ll agree, any Tom, Dick or Harry can have the guarantees. I would have thought that was a good pointer that there is absolutely no value in them.
Where are the hundreds and thousands of customers complimenting you for the offer and what value they have had off them these last 3 years?
People struggled to get a tenner on a 6/1 shot with you at Goodwood a few months ago.
Pull the other one its got bells on LostSoldier3
Again, you have no idea what you’re talking about. You’ve embarrassed yourself in two threads lately and this looks like another. I don’t understand what you’re saying and I’m not sure you do either. There’s a promise here in writing – we’re answerable to the ASA and Gambling Commission if we don’t honour it. The guarantee exists and people use it.
No value? Nowhere in the industry can match this LTL guarantee. You’re lucky to get £20 on at any price until an hour before the race with the dire liquidity on Betfair. No other retail firm offers any such promise. Even supposedly ‘fearless’ outfits like StarSports and Geoff Banks don’t have anything like this in writing. If you’re a large staking punter looking to get a good bet on, it’s a no-brainer to bet with a firm who promises to lay one.
You really think there are going to be streams of compliments about the guarantee? For one thing, it’s hardly de rigeur to compliment a bookmaker (or any company) online. When you’re looking to change your mobile phone contract or electricity supplier, what kind of reviews dominate customer feedback sites? Negative. People only tend to express their emotions when a company is doing something wrong. Who takes the time to write their gratitude when everything is tickety-boo? For another, large-staking punters tend to be quite clandestine about their activities and don’t usually broadcast that they’ve just had a proper wedge on something. You can’t expect Tony Bloom, Patrick Veitch or some commission syndicate to suddenly break cover and sing the praises of a lay to lose guarantee. I know you have a great personal respect for the large-staking punters on here I’ve mentioned, plus I know these posters are impressively open about their selections. You can understand why I’ve prompted them to use and endorse the guarantee.
You’ve always been one of my favourite posters, yeats. I feel I’ve learnt a lot from you from you about the history of racing. I’m upset that you’ve degenerated into trolling and I’m losing patience with your nonsense.
If someone says, “I’ve heard from one of my contacts horse X is burning up the gallops”, punters tend to think “wow! Must act on that information”.
If someone says, “I’ve studied the form for a couple of hours, horse X is well-in and should be a lot shorter price”, punters tend to think “get a life”. 😉
So true
Best Wishes
SilkHere we go again.
Ben Linfoot tipped Tempestatefloresco (his only tip) at 6pm. Tom Segal found the same horse at 8pm. Hope poor Ben’s getting half of his wages!
Maybe a couple of years ago, GT, but that’s not the case now. Nobody’s piling into Segal’s tips on his say-so nowadays – he isn’t respected by the market.
I don’t think his tips are being leaked. I deal with this every week and I always have full visibility over Oddschecker and the exchange. I’d know if there was any funny business like that – a freaky unexplained mover 5pm-8pm in such a well-developed market would stick out like a sore thumb.
Typical course of events nowadays:
Ben Linfoot tips at 6pm on the Sporting Life website. His selections tend to shorten 1 or 2 pts, especially if in a big handicap.
Tom Segal then tips at 8pm on the Racing Post website. Generally, he’ll select at least one Linfoot tip at a price that now only exists in the grids (no further movement generated by Pricewise) and he’ll put up a couple of his own, which don’t tend to budge on the exchange at all. Pricewise just isn’t very influential nowadays. I was on the late shift a couple of Fridays ago, absent-mindedly nipped out for a Greggs at 19:55, came back to my desk at 20:10 and all hell hadn’t broken lose on the ITV races.
Have to say, having read through, that I’m very disappointed you’re all missing the key talking point from this thread:
Where do you live to have a Greggs open at 8pm?
Here we go again.
Ben Linfoot tipped Tempestatefloresco (his only tip) at 6pm. Tom Segal found the same horse at 8pm. Hope poor Ben’s getting half of his wages!
In fairness to Tom, he tipped that horse up for the Uttoxeter summer festival and he duly won (absolutely bolted up). It could be a case that he’s sticking to a horse he likes.
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