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[b:25uib8ry]"I have backed Katchit at 10/1 for the Champion Hurdle"[/color:25uib8ry][/b:25uib8ry]
5yo and Champion Hurdle don’t exactly go well together. Small horse, heart of a lion, lacks scope…………[/color:25uib8ry]
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- Total Posts 17716
DJ
The ‘old guard’ that Sublilmity thrashed in last season’s Champion Hurdle had somehow managed to win 4 gd1’s, plus a host of other top class form, in the same season.
Did they suddenly grow old for the festival?
Agree with you about MWDZ though,: his trainer says he doesn’t need 3 miles, he wasn’t campaigned for it last season and, on his hurdle form he probably wouldn’t be as good over the Gold Cup trip.Brave Inca’s Hatton’s Grace a 3/4 length beating of Rosaker.
The AIG- Well it was just the same old faces taking each other on, bar a couple of novices who seemed to run to a level of form in that race that they hadn’t done previously and have not reproduced.
You’ve then got the Festival Hurdle and Punchestown Hurdle where Silent Oscar has seemed to run to something the like 150+ despite the fact that the balance of his form suggests 130 is closer to mark and he’s been slammed both starts in handicaps off 128/130.
I’d say they began getting old the previous summer, the signs were there over the winter but it was ignored because it was easy to keep coming up with excuses for a host of below-par performances but it was brought home at Cheltenham.
Have a look at the time comparison of the Champion Hurdle with the Fred Winter. Despite both races appearing to be run at a similar pace. On time the Champion Hurdle was just 7 lb faster.
Blythe Knight for Champion Hurdle along with Clopf, and who is this horse Nevada Royale that I’ve heard about? [backed Sublimity at 80/1 last year, one of my best days racing ever!]and the northern horses may still be good value as they tended to get overlooked….
Dj,
You said
Have a look at the time comparison of the Champion Hurdle with the Fred Winter. Despite both races appearing to be run at a similar pace. On time the Champion Hurdle was just 7 lb faster.
I understand what you are saying but sometimes times can be misleading. The Foxhunters ran after the Gold Cup was run 6 seconds slower and won by a horse off 113 carrying 4lb more than the Gold Cup winner. The Arkle was won in a faster time than the Queen Mother in softer going.
For my continued understanding could you explain to me the 7lb faster calculation you have reached please. I have Sublimity winning in a time 2.05 seconds faster than Gaspara carrying 13lb more weight on officially softer ground
. At .25 seconds for a length I get that approximately 8 lengths. Are you saying that a length is worth less than a pound over 2M or are you taking an age allowance etc. Thanks in advanceKatchit can’t win a Champion Hurdle because he lacks scope ?
The horse has a serious engine. Would being scopey make him run faster…and jump a hurdle any better than he already does ?
Sublimity. He was very impressive when winning the Champion Hurdle and all being well, I think he can score again next March.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Katchit for me. Just keeps improving and with his battling ability and suitability to Cheltenham, hes got to be close
I like backing against stats that have tenuous logic and i think a lot of the probable major players in the market have obvious flaws.
Surely the whole point about scope is that in all reality Katchit will need to improve a fair bit over the summer (considering he was running against his own age group previously.) to figure prominently in a CH. Therefore you have to ask if a little flat bred whippet is likely to continue to improve. I don’t know a lot about breeding so perhaps someone can shed some light on the progeny of his stallion Kalanisi. Last year could have been the best he will ever be.. Hopefully it won’t but as i’ve said before i’d much rather back Clopf at 25/1. He was only beaten when running in a monsoon and didn’t get to cheltenham otherwise he’d be a different price.
- Total Posts 17716
Brave Inca’s Hatton’s Grace a 3/4 length beating of Rosaker.
The AIG- Well it was just the same old faces taking each other on, bar a couple of novices who seemed to run to a level of form in that race that they hadn’t done previously and have not reproduced.
You’ve then got the Festival Hurdle and Punchestown Hurdle where Silent Oscar has seemed to run to something the like 150+ despite the fact that the balance of his form suggests 130 is closer to mark and he’s been slammed both starts in handicaps off 128/130.
I’d say they began getting old the previous summer, the signs were there over the winter but it was ignored because it was easy to keep coming up with excuses for a host of below-par performances but it was brought home at Cheltenham.
Have a look at the time comparison of the Champion Hurdle with the Fred Winter. Despite both races appearing to be run at a similar pace. On time the Champion Hurdle was just 7 lb faster.
DJ
All 3 horses that finished within hailing distance of Sublimity had recently recorded 160+ figures in the run-up to the race – high enough figures to earn them a place in most Champion hurdles, and even the 5th horse ran an identical rating to the previous year when he was beaten a very similar distance so it’s difficult to believe they were as ‘past it’ as you suggest. The punters obviously didn’t think so either, as 2nd, 3rd and 6th in the betting followed him home.
As far as the time goes, (The RP reports it as a very fast run race), how much faster would Sublimity have to run to prove himself?
As it was he sat and watched the others until approaching the last and then swamped them for speed, (RP’s words – not mine), winning by a cosy 3l with maybe more in the locker, and on only his 5th run over hurdles.
Given his ground and an injury-free season, he would much the best prospect for next year in my book.Surely the whole point about scope is that in all reality Katchit will need to improve a fair bit over the summer (considering he was running against his own age group previously.) to figure prominently in a CH.
Katchit’s sire Kalinisi was still performing to a high standard in Group 1’s as a 5YO and his dam was a winner at 4 so it’s conceivable that he will have developed since last season…regardless I still dispute the theory that he can’t win the Champion Hurdle because he isn’t an Alderbrook. He jumps hurdles accurately; at pace and gallops relentlessly for two miles. I’d say his frame suits his style of running.
As a 5YO, Afsoun finished third (beaten three lengths) in last years race off a progressive mark of 158 having started the season on 143. Katchit is starting this season off 159. I think he can progress along the same lines at Afsoun and if he does; he must be in the shake up surely ?
Regarding Katchit,
I have an open mind at this stage as to whether he will be as effective this season as last. But what I would say in his favour is ‘have you ever seen a horse take so well to Cheltenam’ as well as he did?
His style of running, where he just keeps pulling out more, can be a huge asset around Cheltenham because some horses just don’t like those undulations or get up that hill – but Katchit seemed to love it and I would love to see him be as good, if not better, than last season.
Mike
who is this horse Nevada Royale that I’ve heard about?
Unbeaten point-to-pointer now at Ditcheat, set to go novice chasing next season. Nicholls quoted as saying “potentially good, but something of an unknown quantity, as it’s hard to know how good his pointing form wasâ€Â
"Cruella" wrote:
who is this horse Nevada Royale that I’ve heard about?
Unbeaten point-to-pointer now at Ditcheat, set to go novice chasing next season. Nicholls quoted as saying “potentially good, but something of an unknown quantity, as it’s hard to know how good his pointing form wasâ€Â
Katchit is by far the most dangerous contender to Sublimity for the CH. He is 7/1 at the moment, there is no way he will be that price on the day, especially as Sublimity will not face Katchit until CH day.
JohnJ.
Katchit is by far the most dangerous contender to Sublimity for the CH. He is 7/1 at the moment, there is no way he will be that price on the day, especially as Sublimity will not face Katchit until CH day.
JohnJ.
But what has he beat???
DJ,
I would say it’s almost impossible to equate the form with ‘what Katchit beat’ to what he will face this year. Last year he was mainly in his same age group, and although he scraped home a few times, there is no doubt his Cheltenham and Aintree victories were very impressive and good on the eye.
And you should know as well as anybody DJ, you don’t get easy Championship races at the festival so to win in the style he did augers very well from a form perspective. Having said all that, he might simply be another Detroit City, but let’s hope not.
Mike
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