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Playing the ante-post markets – National Hunt

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  • #4975
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    Thought it may be interesting for people to put up horses they expect to shorten from their current price in the big ante-post markets for cheltenham next year.

    I believe that Clopf at 25/1 (I haven’t looked on BF but would expect it to be bigger) will be much much shorter come christmas provided the gelding stays fit and rates as a good play on the exchanges.

    Anyone got any they would put up for one of the four championship races?

    #113184
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    Thought it may be interesting for people to put up horses they expect to shorten from their current price in the big ante-post markets for cheltenham next year.

    I believe that Clopf at 25/1 (I haven’t looked on BF but would expect it to be bigger) will be much much shorter come christmas provided the gelding stays fit and rates as a good play on the exchanges.

    Anyone got any they would put up for one of the four championship races?

    Kauto Star at more than 50’s for The Champion Chase in the hope that Denman proves unbeatable at 3m+ 8)

    As I have already mentioned on another thread, I am on for just £20, but I think it’s worth a few quid of anyone’s money.

    Would someone like to price up the odds on the chances of Kauto running in the Gold Cup as opposed to the Champion Chase?

    I would say about 1/8 for the Gold Cup, and about 5/1 for the Champion Chase. This is just my opinion, but if I have Kauto’s chances of going for the Champion Chase at 5/1, then over 50/1 to win it is massive.

    Mike

    #113212
    Friggo
    Member
    • Total Posts 1593

    Monet’s Garden in the Champion Chase. I think connections would be loony not to send him the 2m route this year. Bookies are going about 8/1, which is probably fair cop at the moment allowing for the possibility of a no-show, but BF traders were still offering 20s + at last check, I fancy that to look quite silly down the line.

    I also have to agree that Clopf will look dangerous in the CH market as the season progresses, in a field which IMO has little depth.

    #113214
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Don’t forget though that the Ryanair has Grade 1 Status this year too.

    #113215
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8798

    I don’t think the gradings really influence choice of target over the jumps in the way they do on the flat.

    Prize money and prestige are what attract runners and the prestige of the Champion Chase and Gold Cup far outweighs the Ryanair whatever grading they confer on it. It’ll always be for specialist 2 1/2 milers and horses who can’t cut it in the other two races.

    I’d make KS much bigger than 5/1 to run in the Champion Chase. Prob 33/1 which then doesn’t make 50/1 about winning it that attractive.

    #113216
    Black Sam Bellamy
    Member
    • Total Posts 441

    Haven’t connections ruled out future returns to Cheltenham for Monet Garden on account of the course’s undulations ?..or have I dreamt that up ?

    Anyway I have backed Katchit at 10/1 for the Champion Hurdle with Betfred. Should give me an interest throughout the season. Best price 7/1 now.

    Also doubled Katchit up with Kauto Star; again with Betfred who were standout 5/2 on Kauto.

    I think Twist Magic is good value still at 8/1 for the Champion Chase. No bet yet but thinking about it.

    #113218
    Friggo
    Member
    • Total Posts 1593

    Don’t forget though that the Ryanair has Grade 1 Status this year too.

    Granted. That’s pretty much the main hole in my theory. But to my eyes apart from winning a poor Liverpool Hurdle he’s never stayed the distances that they were trying to run him over last year. Watching him win the Melling Chase with any luck should finally hit the message home that he’s a champion 2-miler in the making.

    #113219
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Nicky Richards thought the Ryanair was best for Monets Garden last year even when it was a Grade 2 and he had to shoulder a Grade 1 penalty, considering he’ll be able to run in the same race this year without a penalty, I’d be of the opinion that is a much more likely target for him than either the Gold Cup or Champion Chase.

    I’m puzzled by your statement that the Ryanair is for horses ‘that can’t cut it’ in the other two races. Florida Pearl showed numerous times he could cut it at the top level, he just didn’t stay in the Gold Cup. It hardly detracts from his achievements just because he wasn’t quick enough for the 2miler but not slow enough for the Gold Cup.

    This is the year that a jumped up handicapper will progress through the ranks to win the Champion Hurdle. Sublimity got lucky and caught the old guard on their way down last year whilst Katchit lacks scope and is terrible value at present.

    #113242
    Irish Stamp
    Member
    • Total Posts 3181

    Fast ground, Cheltenham a horse who has proven Festival form. De Soto anyone?

    Champion Hurdler 2008 :)

    #113245
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Big positive for de Soto is that he’s left Paul Webber. Sadly he’s joined Jonjo. This looks another pretty average buy for 360,000 gns I;d have thought.

    #113248
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    Fast ground, Cheltenham a horse who has proven Festival form. De Soto anyone?

    Champion Hurdler 2008 :)

    Will the ground be fast though? I think Cheletenham are on record as saying there is no reason why they should ever have fast ground again as their watering system can always keep control of it.

    Yes granted they are probably talking about really fast lightning ground, but I think Good to Firm is probably the fastest you will ever see, but more likely it will be just decent Good racing ground. Would that suffice for De Soto?

    Mike

    #113266
    Cruella
    Member
    • Total Posts 108

    This is the year that a jumped up handicapper will progress through the ranks to win the Champion Hurdle.

    Bob’s Pride?

    #113275
    dandan
    Member
    • Total Posts 199

    My Way De Solzen, Gold Cup, 10/1 I think.

    #113281
    Danny
    Member
    • Total Posts 790

    Dempsey looks a big price to me at 16s to win the champion chase he ran well in the race last year and i cant see him being 16/1 on the day of the race.

    Iktitaf also looks a good price at 25/1 personally i think he would have won the champion hurdle last year if he’d have stayed on his feet , if he’s fit come champion hurdle day i think he will go close.

    #113282
    Irish Stamp
    Member
    • Total Posts 3181

    Fast ground, Cheltenham a horse who has proven Festival form. De Soto anyone?

    Champion Hurdler 2008 :)

    Will the ground be fast though? I think Cheletenham are on record as saying there is no reason why they should ever have fast ground again as their watering system can always keep control of it.

    Yes granted they are probably talking about really fast lightning ground, but I think Good to Firm is probably the fastest you will ever see, but more likely it will be just decent Good racing ground. Would that suffice for De Soto?

    Mike

    I think it would – I mean he impressed me at Newbury on his debut a few years ago when running behind Karanja in the Grade 2 Bumper and again in the Champion Bumper, good ground should see him fine. He gave Ouninpohja a good beating at Wincanton (a horse who’s 3 times shorter than DS on Betfair).

    Didn’t know he’d left Webber DJ, now he’s with Jonjo though I expect they’ll try lining him up for the County or one of those races at Aintree.

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