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Thought it may be interesting for people to put up horses they expect to shorten from their current price in the big ante-post markets for cheltenham next year.
I believe that Clopf at 25/1 (I haven’t looked on BF but would expect it to be bigger) will be much much shorter come christmas provided the gelding stays fit and rates as a good play on the exchanges.
Anyone got any they would put up for one of the four championship races?
Thought it may be interesting for people to put up horses they expect to shorten from their current price in the big ante-post markets for cheltenham next year.
I believe that Clopf at 25/1 (I haven’t looked on BF but would expect it to be bigger) will be much much shorter come christmas provided the gelding stays fit and rates as a good play on the exchanges.
Anyone got any they would put up for one of the four championship races?
Kauto Star at more than 50’s for The Champion Chase in the hope that Denman proves unbeatable at 3m+
As I have already mentioned on another thread, I am on for just £20, but I think it’s worth a few quid of anyone’s money.
Would someone like to price up the odds on the chances of Kauto running in the Gold Cup as opposed to the Champion Chase?
I would say about 1/8 for the Gold Cup, and about 5/1 for the Champion Chase. This is just my opinion, but if I have Kauto’s chances of going for the Champion Chase at 5/1, then over 50/1 to win it is massive.
Mike
Monet’s Garden in the Champion Chase. I think connections would be loony not to send him the 2m route this year. Bookies are going about 8/1, which is probably fair cop at the moment allowing for the possibility of a no-show, but BF traders were still offering 20s + at last check, I fancy that to look quite silly down the line.
I also have to agree that Clopf will look dangerous in the CH market as the season progresses, in a field which IMO has little depth.
I don’t think the gradings really influence choice of target over the jumps in the way they do on the flat.
Prize money and prestige are what attract runners and the prestige of the Champion Chase and Gold Cup far outweighs the Ryanair whatever grading they confer on it. It’ll always be for specialist 2 1/2 milers and horses who can’t cut it in the other two races.
I’d make KS much bigger than 5/1 to run in the Champion Chase. Prob 33/1 which then doesn’t make 50/1 about winning it that attractive.
Haven’t connections ruled out future returns to Cheltenham for Monet Garden on account of the course’s undulations ?..or have I dreamt that up ?
Anyway I have backed Katchit at 10/1 for the Champion Hurdle with Betfred. Should give me an interest throughout the season. Best price 7/1 now.
Also doubled Katchit up with Kauto Star; again with Betfred who were standout 5/2 on Kauto.
I think Twist Magic is good value still at 8/1 for the Champion Chase. No bet yet but thinking about it.
Don’t forget though that the Ryanair has Grade 1 Status this year too.
Granted. That’s pretty much the main hole in my theory. But to my eyes apart from winning a poor Liverpool Hurdle he’s never stayed the distances that they were trying to run him over last year. Watching him win the Melling Chase with any luck should finally hit the message home that he’s a champion 2-miler in the making.
Nicky Richards thought the Ryanair was best for Monets Garden last year even when it was a Grade 2 and he had to shoulder a Grade 1 penalty, considering he’ll be able to run in the same race this year without a penalty, I’d be of the opinion that is a much more likely target for him than either the Gold Cup or Champion Chase.
I’m puzzled by your statement that the Ryanair is for horses ‘that can’t cut it’ in the other two races. Florida Pearl showed numerous times he could cut it at the top level, he just didn’t stay in the Gold Cup. It hardly detracts from his achievements just because he wasn’t quick enough for the 2miler but not slow enough for the Gold Cup.
This is the year that a jumped up handicapper will progress through the ranks to win the Champion Hurdle. Sublimity got lucky and caught the old guard on their way down last year whilst Katchit lacks scope and is terrible value at present.
Fast ground, Cheltenham a horse who has proven Festival form. De Soto anyone?
Champion Hurdler 2008
Big positive for de Soto is that he’s left Paul Webber. Sadly he’s joined Jonjo. This looks another pretty average buy for 360,000 gns I;d have thought.
Fast ground, Cheltenham a horse who has proven Festival form. De Soto anyone?
Champion Hurdler 2008
Will the ground be fast though? I think Cheletenham are on record as saying there is no reason why they should ever have fast ground again as their watering system can always keep control of it.
Yes granted they are probably talking about really fast lightning ground, but I think Good to Firm is probably the fastest you will ever see, but more likely it will be just decent Good racing ground. Would that suffice for De Soto?
Mike
This is the year that a jumped up handicapper will progress through the ranks to win the Champion Hurdle.
Bob’s Pride?
Dempsey looks a big price to me at 16s to win the champion chase he ran well in the race last year and i cant see him being 16/1 on the day of the race.
Iktitaf also looks a good price at 25/1 personally i think he would have won the champion hurdle last year if he’d have stayed on his feet , if he’s fit come champion hurdle day i think he will go close.
Fast ground, Cheltenham a horse who has proven Festival form. De Soto anyone?
Champion Hurdler 2008
Will the ground be fast though? I think Cheletenham are on record as saying there is no reason why they should ever have fast ground again as their watering system can always keep control of it.
Yes granted they are probably talking about really fast lightning ground, but I think Good to Firm is probably the fastest you will ever see, but more likely it will be just decent Good racing ground. Would that suffice for De Soto?
Mike
I think it would – I mean he impressed me at Newbury on his debut a few years ago when running behind Karanja in the Grade 2 Bumper and again in the Champion Bumper, good ground should see him fine. He gave Ouninpohja a good beating at Wincanton (a horse who’s 3 times shorter than DS on Betfair).
Didn’t know he’d left Webber DJ, now he’s with Jonjo though I expect they’ll try lining him up for the County or one of those races at Aintree.
My Way de Solzen makes no appeal at 10/1 for the Gold Cup, when, like Monets Garden, he has potentially 2 other targets at the meeting. Apparently his main target is the King George and I think you’d be far better backing him for that, because, If he gets whammed in it by Kauto Star I don’t think they’ll bother running in the Gold Cup and if he wins it, well a bird in the hand and all that!
Agree that Iktitaf looks a big price at 25’s, surely his chance has to be similar to Sublimity’s such was he going when coming down last year, though I’d heard a bit of a rumour that he’d had a little setback over the summer.
[This is the year that a jumped up handicapper will progress through the ranks to win the Champion Hurdle. Sublimity got lucky and caught the old guard on their way down last year whilst Katchit lacks scope and is terrible value at present.
I’m not sure that Sublimity was lucky at all. If it hadn’t been hampered the year before it would have a 100% festival record. With give in the ground and a fast pace I think Sublimity will have every chance of winning again.
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