Placepottery

[Robert Gibbs]

All was going well until the last race at Cheltenham, and one out at the other two as well.

Cheltenham

Leg 1 – 10 Molotof, 15 Smad Place, 23 Unaccompanied
Leg 2 – 8 Alaivan, 15 Dirar, 19 Zanir, 21 Spring Jim
Leg 3 – 3 Bobs Worth, 5 Court In Motion
Leg 4 – 5 Imperial Commander, 14 What A Friend
Leg 5 – 13 On The Fringe, 15 Oscatello
Leg 6 – 3 Astracad, 10 Siberian Tiger, 11 Sir Des Champs

162 x 10p lines = £16.20

[Tuffers]

Apologies for hijacking your thread, Robert, but I thought as I probably won’t do a jackpot again this year it wasn’t worth its own thread. Anyway, I thought I’d have a crack at tomorrow’s jackpot. I’ve never been one for picking more than one horse in a race so here’s my jackpot selections:

Leg 1 – Topolski
Leg 2 – Rimini
Leg 3 – Sawpit Solitaire
Leg 4 – Misstree Dancer
Leg 5 – Maizy Missile
Leg 6 – Canshebemine

[Anonymous]

Apologies for hijacking your thread, Robert, but I thought as I probably won’t do a jackpot again this year it wasn’t worth its own thread. Anyway, I thought I’d have a crack at tomorrow’s jackpot. I’ve never been one for picking more than one horse in a race so here’s my jackpot selections:

Leg 1 – Topolski
Leg 2 – Rimini
Leg 3 – Sawpit Solitaire
Leg 4 – Misstree Dancer
Leg 5 – Maizy Missile
Leg 6 – Canshebemine

Watch your bet 2moro Tuffers as im certain Rimini ran today at Ffos Las so he may be a Non Runner. Ive lost count of the times a NR has cost me a PP when the fav takes a nosedive…good luck

[Robert Gibbs]

Damn you! I was going to let this thread disappear into oblivion and the it pops back to the top!

The irony is I managed to get the Uttoxeter placepot today.

Anyway I will put up one line for the jackpot, it doesn’t look the hardest card in the world

Leg 1 – Topolski
Leg 2 – American World
Leg 3 – Yvonne Evelyn
Leg 4 – Fin Vin De Leu
Leg 5 – Gilt Free
Leg 6 – Flying Award

[Anonymous]

Consider this:

You have a hypothetical race with four runners as follows:

1 – BISMARCK, win probability 45%
2 – TIRPITZ, win probability 30%
3 – SCHARNHORST, win probability 20%
4 – GNEISENAU, win probability 5%

and the race immediately after with also four runners like this:

1 – YUM YUM, win probability 35%
2 – PIP BO, win probability 30%
3 – PITI SING, win probability 25%
4 – KO KO, win probability 10%

There follow four more legs to make the placepot, which I omit for brevity.

If you play for those two races the (1,2) x (1,2) your chance of going through is (0.45+0.30)x(0.35+0.30) = 0.75×0.65 = 0.4875 = 48.75%.
It’s 4 lines, namely (1,1), (1,2), (2,1), (2,2).

But if you play instead (1,1), (1,2), (1,3) and (2,1) the probability is 52%.
Because 0.45×0.35 + 0.45×0.30 + 0.45×0.25 + 0.30×0.35 = 0.1575 + 0.135 + 0.1125 + 0.105 = 0.52 = 52%.

So you know how to work out the likely winners or each ways for each leg, but you don’t know what are the correct lines to play.
The error magnifies as you add legs (races).
For six legs you are about 20% or more in error I should think.

[Tuffers]

Apologies for hijacking your thread, Robert, but I thought as I probably won’t do a jackpot again this year it wasn’t worth its own thread. Anyway, I thought I’d have a crack at tomorrow’s jackpot. I’ve never been one for picking more than one horse in a race so here’s my jackpot selections:

Leg 1 – Topolski
Leg 2 – Rimini
Leg 3 – Sawpit Solitaire
Leg 4 – Misstree Dancer
Leg 5 – Maizy Missile
Leg 6 – Canshebemine

Well there are two non-runners amongst my selections so I’ll have to have Midnight Appeal for leg 2 and Aldertune in leg 4 so the whole thing now reads:

Leg 1 – Topolski
Leg 2 – Midnight Appeal
Leg 3 – Sawpit Solitaire
Leg 4 – Aldertune
Leg 5 – Maizy Missile
Leg 6 – Canshebemine

[Author]

Posts