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I know it’s ludicrous to put one up at 8/1 this far ahead when we don’t even know the weights yet, but….
Shoot First
I reckon he will go up a few pounds for Saturday, just enough to get him into the field, he will be smashed down to something ridiculous like 7/2 by the Off and what beats him wins it.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I like your thinking, do you reckon the horse will be tucked away until Cheltenham then in order to protect his mark? I have never had a bet on the Pertemps final so not really sure what kinds of horses tend to win it. Having just watched the replay it certainly looks like a horse that has a lot more ability than his current mark suggests.
I know he will – the trainer has already said so.
You needed 134 to get a run in the Final last year.
Shoot First ran off 129 so they needed to get the mark up to get a guaranteed run, first four finish or not.
So I reckoned they’d be having a right go and backed it.
It’s won two lengths, having been smashed down to 9/4 from 6/1 the night before and my guess is it will go up about 7lb to circa 136.
So they’ve come over, landed a touch, got into the Final and the horse is still unexposed.
So they put him away for the Final now – to protect whatever revised mark it gets as you rightly state.
Job done.
I have to admire it, really.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I have to admire it too Ian, always respect a well planned plot job! Will probably back it now after that write up, like you said if it’s 8/1 now and is indeed a Cheltenham plot job (which it looks every bit of one, given they’ve even just won a prep race at the track) it will surely only go off a fair bit shorter.
Cheers for the tip and write up!
I do believe the winner of a qualifier has never won the final
But I’m not sure trends like that apply to a Charles byrnes plot job
The phrase steering job comes to mind
Run For Oscar – comes over to Haydock, wins comfortably off 82, gets put up to 90, ensuring a run in the Cesarewitch, romps home.
Shoot First – comes over to Cheltenham, wins comfortably off 129, gets put up to 137(?), ensuring a run in the Pertemps Final….what do we think happens next?
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"WilliamHill offering 12/1 Shoot First, the other two books with odds (Coral and Ladbrokes) stay at 8/1, all three are top 4 e/w 1/4 odds.
Good spot, Ben.
Shoot First up 8lb to 137 for Saturday – guarantees him a run in the Final I should think.
I’d say that’s still a workable mark.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I’d say he could’ve been put up more as he won very easily despite being very green
He absolutely tanked into the race
I said no handicap bets antepost this year but 12s on a byrnes plot job may be hard to resist
Just taken the 12/1 after the case was put so well here.
I do not particularly like Byrnes but I doubt he is going to be messing around at Cheltenham.
I entirely get what you mean, CAS, but I came to the conclusion many years ago that, “if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em” is often the best policy for punters in this game and all the time I’m backing the bloke’s horses and they’re winning I haven’t got a problem with him!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I know. I am really kicking myself for not backing him at Cheltenham on Saturday but at least I did not waste any money on anything else!
I really should have paid more attention to his rating and the rating required to get into the final. He clearly needed to go up in the weights and a tenderly handled fourth place was not going to do it. Then when the money came, it was obvious what was afoot.
The race will certainly suit him. My only concern is he did not look straightforward after jumping the last.
Can’t argue with Shoot First, and from a yard I bet and follow a lot, I should have paid more attention like Cork said. I’m surprised the 12’s is holding, and it’s a fair looking price alright
One of my favourite races of the week this, and one where I’ll definitely have an Antepost. My long term fancy fit this is stablemate of Shoot First, The Big Galloper. Qualified for this last year, winning at Musselburgh, but he didn’t go, and I’m hoping it’s the same route this year. Not quoted yet, but he’s my main hope at this stage, for all that his stablemate is the more sensible option at this stage.
The Big Galloper
Botox Has franks the form in a competitive contest today.
Unless the Handicapper takes another look at the Cheltenham race, Shoot First will run off an unchanged mark of 137 on the Final and for me what beats him wins it.
As short as 4/1 now and I can see why.
6/1 Bet365 best.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"With an Irish (likely to be raised by the BHA assessor) OR of 137, Eric Bloodaxe doesn’t need to win tomorrow to qualify for the Final.
That doesn’t mean he won’t – and the jockey booking is eye catching, but it has to be a concern for me.
Same deal with Vina Ardanza.
But Lord Erskine is on 121 and even with a hike off the BHA, he needs to be winning this to get to the 134 needed to guarantee a run if this year’s renewal is any guide.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
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