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I’ve been convinced for some time that Third Intention has a big race in him, and I’ll be backing him for this along with Rajdhani Express – a lovely big horse who looks as if he could become high class.
For stats followers, RE hits just about every one available, and he’s on the big side at 12/1
Third Intention has had a wind op, and if he finishes his other races as well as his first of this season, he’ll win his share.
I feel an Exacta coming on!
Katenko would be my choice if alls well after the long absence, his win at Chelt back in January was top class. Venetia had a good weekend last week too. I think Third Intention would prefer a smaller field where he could dominate, as is the case with my horse to follow Hidden Cyclone. Rolling Aces would be another for the shortlist , he looked very good in Ireland last week.
Captain Conan is 14s in some places, and he fits all the trends. Barring a below-par effort at the festival, he’s ultra-consistent, and I think he’s worth a play at the price. I reckon Henderson’ll keep in Finian’s Rainbow to keep the weight down for him, and it’ll be job done.
Also like a bunch of other horses, so I’m sure it’ll be a few against the field for me!
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
I’m more interested in Henderson’s Nadiya de la vega. Third last year and nearly a stone better off with Walkon who was second. She likes Cheltenham and runs extremely well fresh. I think shes won on her seasonal debut or after a long break, three times now…
She looks nicely handicapped on 10-3 if Henderson keeps the topweight Finians rainbow in. Hopefully she gets a run. I’m in eachway at 20/1+
I’ve been wondering when Willie Mullins is going to start sending horses over to England and next Saturday could be the day with what looks the perfect horse for the race.
Marito
was about two or three lengths down and closing when coming to grief two out in the Jewson. I’m not saying he would have won but he was gaining on the leaders and Ruby’s hadn’t really gone for him. It’d be a brave man that’d say he definitely would have been beaten and he surely would have went close.
Considering how he raced off levels with Dynaste and Captain Conan that day, I find it very hard to see either of those two conceding 12 lbs to the Ricci horse. What’s hard to believe are the prices: Dynaste 5/1 generally, Captain Conan 12/1 generally and Marito 14/1 generally.
I can only assume the price differential is due to the fact that Mullins generally doesn’t have a runner in these races and I must admit that’s my big worry. However, considering that Mullins has hinted at sending more horses across this season I think it’s worth taking a punt on Marito taking his chance at 14/1. He weighted off his Irish mark of 147 and I think they’ll be missing a trick if they don’t run. If he runs he’ll go off 6 or 7/1 in my opinion.
Kid Cassidy is out, I’m glad that I was faint hearted and didn’t take the 33s with betvictor. I had the feeling I might be left with a few worthless bets if I had gone in early as I mentioned in my earlier post …. " I’m sure if I wagered a few ante post at the moment, half would be down before the tapes went up on the day."
Dynaste is still in there, but again I have doubts he will turn up, I think he might go for the Betfair Chase.This leaves me very much in VTC’s boat, as Nadiya De La Vega and Tap night look good value at 20/1 and 25/1 respectively with betvictor. Hawk also makes some good pointers for Nadiya having a cracking chance.
I mentioned in my first post that top weights have won this before, and the handicapper has given Finians Rainbow a decent chance by dropping him a couple of pounds to 163. This is the lowest he has been rated for the last 18 months, during which time he won the Queen Mother at last years festival, beating Sizing Europe, and followed it up by winning the Melling Chase at Aintree. His last race in April of this year was a decent running on 2nd, beaten by Sire De Grugy, over a distance which is short of what he needs now. 16/1 with betvictor is too tempting not to have a punt, and if Dynaste doesn’t run, I reckon he will be about 8 or 10/1. I’ve taken the 16s before it disappears.
Tough race and I could make a case for half the field, but I’ll stick to those at this time.
Best of luck guys.
Had my first bet in the race on
Nadiya De La Vega
at 16’s. Shame i missed out on the 20’s available, but i hadn’t really looked too much into this until today. Seems to tick all the right boxes and if McCoy tries to make the weight, then expect the price to plummet!
I really like
Champion Court
as a saver. Looks a really nice sort for this. Also fancy a cheeky E/W on
Astracad
… because i will never learn
Colour Squadron for me. On his novice hurdling form, there is so much undelivered potential. Given that he is owned by JP, I find it hard to believe that those 10-20lbs of improvement won’t appear soon.
A big non betting race for me. Looks very Trappy.
I was just wondering whether Gift of dgab was going to run. At a big price, he could run well although I felt he may have bounced in his last hurdle race given his promising previous run
SHL
CC not going for this according to Hendersons stable tour.
Ground might be too quick for Katenko.
VTC mentioned Woolcombe Folly earlier – he seems an awful big price at 33s with Derham booked. He doesn’t always find a lot but is most consistent and ran a cracker here last time, still in with a chance when blundering at the last.
Derham’s 5lb claim could be just enough to get him home, and he’s a most appealing each way bet to add to Raj Express (and that plonker Third Intention, who misses it now)
Gift of Dgab also catches the eye. He’s been raced in the past, and backed, as though they rate him and if he runs I’ll have a small bet on him too.
I think the 16/1 about Finians Rainbow providing it’s good ground could represent some value. Ok he has questions to answer, but if another wind op, and better ground in his favour, he’s far too classy to ignore at 10lb below his peak.
Connection must fancy he’s back to somewhere near his best as he could easily take up the Schloer the next day off a much more favourable weight instead of conceding weight in the Paddy Power.If he does run then a saver on Colour Squadron at the other end of the weights at 14/1. He’s promised much but not quite delivered, has also come down the weights, and surely has a big race in him off this mark.
I’ve taken some of Boyles’ 10/1 on
Ballynagour
. After some late night study last night I compiled a shortlist of Dynaste, Ballynagour, Colour Squadron and Gift Of Dgab. With Dynaste out of the race I think Ballynagour could well go off favourite. Historically the Pipe’s have always targeted this race and this has probably been the plan for Ballynagour for some time. He was going well in the Byrne Plate before stopping like he’d been shot after the third last. He was subsequently found to have burst a blood vessel which is a concern, but at least it explains the weak finish. First time out could be the time to catch him considering how good he looked first time up at Warwick last season. Not going overboard on this race as it’s difficult to rule anything out, but I don’t think Ballynagour will be 10/1 come the day.
Ballynagour has a workable weight to carry but he was disappointing for me at the Festival when he seemd to have a terrific chance beforehand.
Rajdhani Express did well in novice chases last season and is only 6 years old. I would think he has scope to improve further this season. I know some people are not fans of Waley-Cohen but he knows the horse and 10/1 looks alright to me.
Colour Squadron has disappointed me a little, so I’ll leave him and plump for the dodgy jockey/great trainer combination and Rajdhani Express.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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