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I would run him out the front – its when he’s surrounded by horses that he seems to lose his judgement. Friend has a good horse by Kings Theatre that had its form rejuvenated by leading its races.
can someone find one, one other horse with the falls profile of Cue Card?
sadly, the only one I can think of who comes close is Golden Chieftain
I watched those 3 falls last night; head on shots so I couldn’t really tell what stride he was on or how much attempt he made to take off. But they did remind me uncomfortably of the horse in Dick Francis’ short story “Carrot for a Chestnut”.
You say, “It does not mean a horse that’s generally a good jumper can not get that confidence/jumping consistency back.”
Cue Card’s confidence is fine. Confidence is not in question and I’ve never raised it. He threw some of the finest leaps I’ve seen at Aintree after the heavy festival crash. Yet he crashed again on Saturday and the fallback on lack of confidence isn’t an issue.
You’re not saying it’s “confidence”, I am Joe. You don’t know his “confidence is fine” it’s your opinion.
Confidence is not affected at every fence. Example you’ve given is a poor one. Falls have all come when innitially held up in mid-div and then gone to jump a fence alongside horses without much room or at Wetherby with less room than he’d been racing at previous fences. Aintree’s totally different, those “finest leaps” all came racing with a clear view of his fences and (probably importantly) nothing outside him. Worst jump at Aintree coming when going to the rail and Smad Place jumped alongside on his outer. Confidence is often affected when a horse finds itself in similar circumstances to when taking a previous bad fall. That does not mean it jumps badly every time those circumstances occur, just regularly enough for it to be a problem. Cue Card’s falls are imo evidence of a confidence issue.
Value Is EverythingGolden Chieftain a fair shout, Tonge, although his in his first fall he looks to come up spot on and almost over before hitting the top and taking a heavy fall. The other two though are very similar crashes to Cue Card’s right into the fence, patently failing when asked up both times. At Exeter, at the four fences prior to his fall, he’d been getting increasingly lower hitting each one at different levels and looking a very tired horse when he came down.
Oddly, a Tizzard horse too.
I would run him out the front – its when he’s surrounded by horses that he seems to lose his judgement. Friend has a good horse by Kings Theatre that had its form rejuvenated by leading its races.
I think you could be right, Obi’. Cobden is known to like racing prominently. If Cue Card has to be “held up” hope he’s given a position on the outer, ie not surrounded by horses and (when applicable) rail.
Value Is EverythingDidn’t he always used to race prominently and then they changed tactics? Thinking about similarities with Carvills Hill now.
Mark, sentiment is involved and I’ve happily admitted that. But that doesn’t detract from the logic of what is happening. When very experienced people like you – and there are many who have taken the same approach – simply ignore the evidence
I could say the same about you, Joe.
Value Is Everythingresort to claims that he still has plenty of ability, he’s still well capable of winning races, Kauto had a few falls, every horse can fall etc etc. Here’s a fine example:
On point of order:
I have not said Cue Card is “still well capable of winning races”, the evidence is still out on that one. Although travelling ok at Wetherby it was too far out to be confident and is not far off being a 12 year old. It’s just that the evidence that he’s not capable of winning a Grade 1 is far from conclusive. Appeared to win the Ascot Chase in good style (as an 11 year old) in February. Then fell at Cheltenham and loads of horses disappoint at Aintree after running at the Festival – let alone after falling there. Cue Card was below what could be expected, but still ran with credit to be beaten under a length in the Grade 1 Bowl. Given his very best form is considerably better than the British Betfair Chase main protaganists could conceivably still win even if his form’s receded 10 or more pounds. Fact he loves Haydock and usually improves for his reappearance also need to be taken in to consideration… Sizing John is the current rightful favourite, but will he run? If Cue Card had run to his best at Wetherby he’d be odds-on for Haydock. He’ll probably not win but his odds imo more than account for that. Would not want to lay the 6/1 currently available.Value Is EverythingBarton Bank was always a horse that you held your breath with as he could really get low and belt a fence (and generally did several times in a race) – he was more often than not very good when he met one on the right stride but you didn’t always have much confidence in his ability to shorten up at a fence when the stride wasn’t there. Most jockeys before the race probably said I wouldn’t really want to be following him round during the race.
I remember him in a novice chase at Kempton (think it was the Feltham at the King George meeting) with Dunwoody on and he was pretty much faultless and cruising to victory untill he turned for home and put down and crashed out at the third last. Even in his King George win against Bradbury Star, Graham Goode’s commentary after jumping the 4th last down the back which he did give it a bit of a belt was ‘Barton Bank he is over safely, god knows how”
Overall, I think he fell about 4 time and famously unseated Maguire with another King George at his mercy, watching that reply you see Maguire ask him up (instead of letting him go short, which was never a good idea) and he just put down on him and fired him out the saddle.
He didn’t always look the most fluent or natural jumper and you could see his jockey a lot of the time pulling about on his reins when the stride wasn’t there to try and get him to shorten but he more often than not seemed to find a way to get from one side to the other but I am sure there were a few more G1 races he missed out on because of his jumping.
Mark, at Haydock he has horses on his outside for most of the race. Jumping the 2nd, Def Red is right upsides on CC’s outside and they look to touch. At the sane fence on circuit two BDM is upsides on his outside for quite some time on the approach and the jump it upsides. Cue Card jumped both fences flawlessly.
At the fence he crashes through, nothing is upsides. He’s a length behind BDM and about the same ahead of Def Red.
Not for the first time you and I are far apart in this debate with one important difference: I hope against hope that I am completely and utterly wrong.
A sensible move by the Tizzards, personally I would have gone for the experience of Fehily but hopefully the youth of Cobden will be successful.
He may not need to be injured now that Sam is out because Paul, when the change of Cue Card’s jockey was announced, said no problem in Harry going to Haydock unless something happens to Sam and I need Harry at Ascot. Paul is of the persuasion to be co-operative with Colin but may genuinely feel Harry is the best choice to ride his Ascot runners rather than Sean, Bryony or whomever. Harry is after all attached to Paul’s yard.
So your question is extremely pertinent. Power will be on Sizing John and I doubt Tizzard would trust Cooper to ride a donkey on the beach at the moment, however, Tizzard has used most top jockeys at one time or the other. Possibly Aidan Coleman, who has ridden Cue Card once (Daryl Jacob a few times but he’ll be on Bristol De Mai), or Richard Johnson but it largely depends on who’s going to Haydock rather than Ascot.
I reckon its all up in the air right now which some would say is karma for no loyalty being shown to Brennan. I would have tried blinkers not a different jockey.
I was watching As de Mee the other day, and noticed that he had a high head carriage and seemed to breast a lot of fences; commentator said he’d got in a bit close to some of them. He reminded me a bit of Cue Card so I looked up his pedigree and realised he was of the Saddlers Welles line. Wondered if they all tended to carry their heads high. Probably of no relevance whatsoever. Was glad that Paddy came third in the big race on Saturday, though.
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