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Judging by the movers over the last few days, I would say you’re driving the market at the moment, Robert.
Thanks Nathan/Tuffers
Well I didn’t expect Lupita to cause quite so much excitement today. She was available at 18’s in a place, but 16’s was generally available and thats what i shall use for calculating p/l.
Congratulations to Steve Whiteley, it’s nice to see a regular guy win such a big pot, just a shame I didn’t get the five before as I banked on Lupita in the last! She and her jockey did very well, and actually the win was made a little sweeter due to the fact that I read a few comments before the off about her having no chance (never won over hurdles over 28 attempts, who the hell is the jockey blah blah). I’m sure if she had run over 2m again before now, she might have won a few years earlier! Pepperoni Pete would probably have finished third if Switched Off hadn’t of fallen, but he ran very well and beat the rest comfortably, but the winner won well, still it was a good result, and he showed he’s still got a race or two in him.
Drybrook Bedouin was well supported throughout the day, and he travelled and jumped well until turning in, where he got a little outpaced before running on again. He didn’t jump the last line all that well, and he may have finished a few lengths closer with some fluent leaps, but he was third best on the day, and there were no excuses. Again it was a good run, and I was happy enough with that, he can win under rules. At the sp’s alone a pound each way accumalator on the three at Exeter would have returned £90.
Miss Tarantella went close at Newcastle, but the ground didn’t look quite as testing as I was expecting and Cute N You Know It stayed on well to deny her.
Moon Lightening drifted badly out to 22/1 at Southwell, although at one stage he looked like getting involved. He was short of room two out, and was switched out, where he stayed on at one pace to the line. It was certainly a more promising effort, and given that he’ll drop another pound or two for that, he could still be of interest next time around in a similar contest.A profit on the day of +26.5 (28’s used for Pepporoni Pete rather than 33’s which was hard to get!)Overall Profit/Loss stands at +65
A handful of selections at Catterick, and one at Fontwell on Wednesday 9th March.
CATTERICK
2:20
A selling hurdle to start the card at Catterick (not unusual). Bromhead is the obvious one and the most likely winner. I could probably rattle off more information about him without looking than I could about a few of the stars at Cheltenham. His two hurdling wins have come at Fakenham (gold cup day last year) and Southwell two starts ago, so a sharp left handed track is obviously not going to hold any fears for him. Unusually for him, he backed up a good run with another last time at Leicester. I can sometimes be accused of going against the obvious, and that may apply here, but whilst I wouldn’t lay him unless he got to around the evens mark, backing horses like him at around 13/8 will in the long run leave you in the red.
Wake Board is the standout on official ratings, but he’s not been seen for a while. I thought he was running as if he had a problem before his enforced absence, and even in this lowly grade I wouldn’t be at all confident about him. He can go tearing off in front at a rate of knots, and were he to do so, that may offer you a way out in-running. If he gets to a silly price of say 5/1 then i might be tempted to have a few quid on with the intention of laying off in running, but otherwise i think a watching brief is the way to go.
This really is a shocking event even by selling standards, with the likes of Bold Indian, Daraybad and Chadwell Spring all rated 72 or lower. Autumn Harvest I had my eye on for a while, but since joining his current trainer he’s shown nothing this season, and whilst I wouldn’t be completely shocked if he scraped a place, I can’t back him at present. Perfectus is interesting, a lightly raced seven year old from the respected Jefferson yard. He was very well backed in a low grade handicap around here in January over 2m3f, but after looking like he might get involved, he quickly retreated before the second last. This drop back to 2m looks like it will help his cause, and I’m sure connections will be very disappointed if he can’t be competitive in a race of this nature.
After all of that I think I’m probably about to suggest a small bet on the outsider of the party, if she is I don’t think she should be. PRINCESS ALIUSKA is a moderate mare, but up against this modest opposition she shouldn’t be a rank outsider. The facts are that she has one win on the flat to her name, that came in a seller over 1m2f at Redcar. That was only in September last year, and as bad a race as that was, that run is a fair bit better than many of these have shown in the last year. She’s had two starts over hurdles thus far, both at Newcastle, and both in testing ground. In the first of those she was too keen early on, and faded turning in to finish well beaten. Last time she settled a little better, and made a move down the far side, she was just beginning to struggle when she fell at the first in the home straight. It’s hard to take too much encouragement from this efforts, but she travelled well for a fair way on both occasions and looking at her action, the heavy ground would have been against her. Her flat win was on good ground and she has also been second on good to firm, so the faster conditions here should suit her. She would be the equal to most of these on the flat, even Bromhead (although I take the point he is a better hurdler than flat horse) and this is the first chance she’s had on decent ground over hurdles. I just hope the tumble she took last time hasn’t affected her confidence too much.3:50
Another poor race in terms of quality, and the main reason I’ve been attracted to this race, is the fact that I don’t think a lot of the field want this far (3m1f). Go On Be A Lady & Bobby Donald don’t shape to me as if they are crying out for this trip, and even though the latter has won a point, that was one over 2m4f. Bardolet is a worthy favourite after a fair effort last time in the context of this race, but early quotes of 5/2 look skinny to me, and there is value elsewhere. I think that lies with both the veteran ARCTIC ECHO and THE BRIG AT AYR. The first named is now a twelve year old, but this is only his six career start over fences. He ran a good race over hurdles on his penultimate outing at Wetherby, and he didn’t run too badly last time either at Warwick in what was a very comepetitive race for the grade. His best effort over fences was when second at Warwick last year on soft ground in a novice event, although he was still bang there the time before when coming down at Towcester. Having reviewed his jumping, I don’t think thats too much of a worry, and he is very interesting given that he is very well treated over fences. He is fully effective on a sounder surface, and this will be the easiest task he’s faced, possibly ever! Hopefully the first time blinkers will have a posititve effect, and there are certainly no stamina concerns with him. THE BRIG AT AYR is the other other that interests me, his only form of real note was when second in this corresponding event last year. He would have been placed at Sedgefield before that but for coming down late on. His jumping is a slight concern, although it wasn’t a bad jump that caused him to unseat two starts ago at Towcester, where he stumbled on landing. His reappearance at Newcastle last month offered little encouragement, but he had run poorly before this race last year also. The benefit of that run, coupled with the better ground will hopefully see him in a more positive light, and off the same mark as he was last year, he looks overpriced in such a weak race.
4:50
I haven’t had too many bets in hunter chases so far this season, but I believe if your willing to take the time to investigate, you can find some value. I try and go to a few points every season, but that hasn’t done me any good in this race, as all the form is from the northern circuit. I’ll keep this brief,and whilst I respect the chances of Call Me Mulligan who is an interesting runner if fit after a break, I think the one to have a little on is THE VIKING. Now a twelve year old, this horse is apparently blind in one eye, and has only ever had two starts under rules, including when a fair fifth in this race last year. I’ve been able to watch one of his pointing appearances online, and much like in this race last year, he strikes me as a fairly nimble type and I can see why a sharp track like this suits. A lot of these are real slowboats who won’t be best suited to this track and I expect this two time point winner to still be going well on the final circuit when others are being scrubbed along. He’ll need to see it out a bit better than he did last year, but this looks a slightly weaker affair. His run last time at Duncombe wasn’t actually too bad at all, he was only beaten sixteen lengths into sixth by Sherwoods Folly! and that race was run in the quickest time of the day (Lem Putt won on the same card in about the same time as the selection would have run) He’s obviously not one to go overboard about, but he looks like being overpriced, which is what it’s all about.
2:20 – Princess Aliuska – 0.5pt each way at 28/1 or better (no prices until morning, i’m sure she’ll be at least twice those odds on the exhanges, probably one to back more for a place than the win, but i’ll keep it simple on here)
3:50 – Arctic Echo – 1.5pt each way at 8/1 (Paddy Power, wouldn’t accept less than 6/1), The Brig At Ayr – 1pt each way at 12/1 (various, wouldn’t accept less than 10’s)
4:50 – The Viking – 0.75pt each way at 12/1 or betterFONTWELL
4:00
This is the only race that interests me on the card, and I think WARDINGTON LAD is well worth a bet. He’s not had much racing in his career but a sound surface and 2m4f look to be his ideal conditions, and he is back down to a mark 1lb lower than he won off at Towcester two years ago (also in March). The stable had a couple of second places at Southwell today (Tuesday) which is encouraging and the excellent Sam Twiston-Davies taking off 3lb can only be a help. He didn’t run too badly last time, but his best effort so far this season was actually in a jumpers bumper at Southwell, which is a little surprising, although the form of those races cannot be taken literally. The current 16/1 on offer looks a very generous price considering how weak the opposition are.
I Can Run Can You will obviously be popular, but it’s my personal opinion that he wants a step up in trip and he’s actually running off a 7lb higher mark than when second last time. Arctic Flow is a mare in form and is respected, although she’ll find this tougher under a penalty, and although she ran well at Towcester, she appears to have a love affair with Plumpton. The Moores can never be discounted here and Galant Star is interesting stepping up in trip on better ground, but she hasn’t looked the most straightforward in the past. Hereditary would have been of interest if he’d had a little more time to recover from his comeback in bad ground at Folkestone, as he is now very well handicapped, and has gone well here in the past, but the "bounce" factor is a worry, and he might be one for next time rather than today.4:00 – Wardington Lad – 1.5pt each way at 16/1 (VC, wouldn’t accept less than 10’s)
Lingfield & Kempton keep the all-weather show on the road, but I’ve no desire to get involved at either. Poesmulligan was given a strange ride last time (rushed up at a suicidal pace from a wide draw) and he should do better in the last at Kempton, but it’s a competitive event and on balance I’m happy to leave him alone.
It’s fair to say today (Wednesday) could not have gone much worse, but after four days that included, 66, 20, 20, 16 & 10/1 winners I was a due bad one!
As funny as it sounds, I find it easier to deal with when they run really badly, when I fancy something and it finishes soundly beaten but not too far behind, it’s a case of just being plain wrong. Today the pair in the handicap chase at Catterick ran terribly as did Wardington Lad, the mare in the seller was obviously speculative, and the hunter came down (Call Me Mulligan won!)
Alas moving onto Thursday’s action, I’ve spent the afternoon on the cards, as a Tottenham fan, my attention will be elsewhere this evening.
I am tired of Cheltenham talk now, and will endeavour not to read another damn thing until Tuesday’s decs are published on Monday. I’ve kind of said it before, whilst it’s a great four days, a 10/1 winner at Cheltenham doesn’t make you any richer than a 10/1 anywhere else, and given that there are thousands more eyes on those races than anywhere else, it’s my personal opinion that value there at this stage is very hard to come by. So I’m always baffled when people seem to go overboard about it. Yes it’s the most exciting four days of the year, yes I absolutely love watching the best take on the best, but do I get more of a kick by picking the winner of the Gold Cup in comparison to a seller at Fakenham, no! Having said all that I now know that Maljimar will definitely get a run in the cross country chase, get on!!!!!Overall P/L +54.5
WINCANTON
I’m not sure I’ve had four bets at Wincanton in the last four meetings, so it’s a little unusual that I want to back four on the one card!
2:30
A few unexposed types in this, but Rayon Vert’s novice form is nothing to shout about and he looks like he needs further, Robin Will fared better here last time, but that was over 2m6f and again he looks to need a stiffer test. Midnight Opera won a novice event at Aintree when last seen, but even if you take the positives out of that form it’s hard to say he looks well handicapped. Bun Oir is an interesting runner on his handicap debut, but he’s probably going to struggle to get his head in front up against his elders. Tom O’Tara usually runs his race, but the one I’m really very keen on is FOREST RHYTHM. A quick look suggests he’s not in great form and is fully exposed. However bar one poor run here two starts ago, he has always run very well here, and Jimmy Derham who has been aboard for his two victories, is back in the saddle. He did very well last time to get so close, having been held up off the pace, in a race in which it paid to race handily. The fact that was on a softer surface made it all the more encouraging, and the better ground on offer here can only improve his chances. There is nothing wrong with his hurdling and it’s just unfortunate he has a U & F next to this name, in fact but for falling he would have been placed behind Organisateur at Taunton. Whilst he hasn’t won off a mark this high, he’s been placed a few times off higher. There is no obvious pacesetter, and whilst he usually goes well off a strong pace, given the fact that many of these are very one paced over this trip, if they go a crawl, it will probably play into his hands even more! The more I look at this race, the more confident I become about his chances.
3:35
Bathwick Quest’s chance was compromised last time when she couldn’t bag the early lead, she may well do that here, but I have to say I’m not convinced she’ll quite see out this trip. Randjo is another with stamina doubts, and the 13lb rise for his Fontwell victory found him out last time. Psi will stay, but doesn’t look straightforward, and given the likelihood of a good early gallop, I can see him sulking and getting behind early on. Inca Cave doesn’t look well treated on his chasing debut and Poseidon’t Secret has shown nothing this season. Midnight Appeal will be popular after making a winning debut over fences at Huntingdon. That was an improvement on anything he achieved over hurdles, but it wasn’t much of a race, and an 8lb rise makes life tougher. That leaves my selection LADY BLING BLING, who is ten now, but has had just the two starts to date over the larger obstacles. She was second here to Forget It in a novice on her seasonal debut. Last time at Kempton she also finished behind Forget It, but a couple of mistakes mid-race didn’t help her cause and she did quite well to finish fourth in the end. She could so with brushing up her jumping a little, but a mark of 106 looks attractive now, and it was at this time last year that she came too herself.
4:05
FUN GUY is one of my "List horses" and given the weakness of this race, I have to back him, although I was hoping he would start handicapping at 2m, so I won’t be getting quite as involved as I might. I could well be wrong, and this may be his trip, but he doesn’t look short of pace to me, and at this stage of his career I’m not certain he’ll quite see the extra half mile out. That said, this is by far the easiest task he’s had so far, and the Buckler yard have at least had a few winners in the last month, they were woefully out of form when this fellow was competing earlier in the season. As per my notebook comments, he races rather enthusiastically, and it’s always a help when they want to run! He has given me the impression that he is capable of more than the formbook would suggest, and I would hope he’ll show that in a race of this nature, racing in a tongue tie for the first time.
It’s a real struggle to say positive things about too many of thiese. Vin Rose was in fair form before falling last time and is respected, Ladies Best has never reproduced his flat form over hurdles, and he looks to be on a firm downward spiral. Gunship is better known as a chaser, and he is likely to get outpaced. They’re a few four years lurking down the bottom, Miss Miracle has been disappointing over hurdles thus far, and after not improving for better ground last time, she should struggle again. Jewellery was well supported at Taunton when last seen, and she has to be respected given how weak a race this is. Singapore Storm has shown next to nothing but up in trip for an in form yard off a feather weight for an in-form yard, i’m sure he’ll have his supporters. Chestnut Ben has at least won a race this season, he was officially rated 38 that day!!! He ran well last time too, but he looks to need softer ground.4:40
An interesting first division of the maiden hurdle, without being a race of great quality. Spirit Is Needed was the best of these on the flat, but he didn’t always looked that straightforward, and is probably slightly flattered by his official rating in that sphere. His hurdling debut at Taunton, where he was ridden from off the pace, was full of promise, but his effort last time at Doncaster was very tame, albeit in what was probably a better affair. If he comes back to form, I think he’s the most likely winner, but he’s not a horse I would trust and want to back at a short price. Water Garden ran well on his debut for Paul Nicholls, but his last two starts have been very ordinary indeed. Management looks slow, and quite where he’s not been stepped up in trip I don’t know, oh hang on, yes I do, this is his third start, expect to see him over 2m4f/2m6f on his handicap debut next time! He won’t have the pace for this and I’ll be pressing the lay button at anything under 5/1. Leitzu did well on his hurdling debut, Captain Cool, less well, but both are open to improvement, but so is GEARBOX who is of a similar level to those two on the flat, but looks likely to be a much bigger price here. In fact he’s still improving a bit on the level, and has had just the two starts for Liam Corcoran. The first over those was his hurdling debut at Musselburgh over 2m4f. His jumping improved as the race progressed, but he weakened before turning into the street and was well beaten. He’s not short of speed on the flat and this drop back to 2miles looks the right move. Since then he has run well at Wolverhampton on the fibresand, and whilst it’s hard to be confident, at the likely price he’s worth a dabble.
2:30 – Forest Rhythm – 2pts each way at 12/1 (Hills, wouldn’t accept less than 8’s)
3:35 – Lady Bling Bling – 2pt win at 9/1 (B365, PP, wouldn’t accept less than 7’s)
4:05 – Fun Guy – 1.5pt each way at 12/1 or better
4:40 – Gearbox – 0.75pt each way at 20/1 or betterFOLKESTONE
2:50
An interesting Beginners’ chase and I wonder if CANNI THINKAAR might be overlooked with rivals from bigger yards in opposition. He’s twice run well round here for the Davison’s this season, and I thought he was going to hold on last time, until collared by Asturienne close home. We know he loves the track, jumps well, stays this trip and acts on the ground (recent form on heavy, but has won twice on a sound surface). It would be fair to say that consistency has never been his strongpoint, but it’s fairly hard to see him not being involved. I would hope that he will sit in behind Spear Thistle who will probably make the running.
Spear Thistle himself is a useful horse on his day, but he doesn’t look to be as good over fences, and this trip will be stretching his stamina to it’s outer limits, for all the he is still respected as the main danger. Erzen didn’t convince with his jumping at Newbury, and got no further than the first last time (bit unlucky as he was squeezed up on the approach). He certainly has the class to take a hand, but they are likely to go a good clip here and that will put pressure on his jumping, and he may struggle to keep up as he is more of a stayer than most. Neil Harvey did well enough at Towcester after a long time off the track, but he hardly looked like a winner waiting to happen that day, and I’m not convinced either Fredo or Cool Mission who beat him are as good as ratings of 130/124 suggest, so I think 122 might flatter him and of course the concern again is the second run back, even if he has had 35 days to recover.. Days of Pleasure looks like the only other one to consider, but although this ground will be to his liking, he’ll have to improve on his hurdling form to win this on his chasing debut.3:55
They’re four horses in this seven runner line up that I’ve been keeping an eye on for one reason or another. Eastern Supreme I thought would improve for fences and I quite liked him when he was with Peter Niven. But he has been very disappointing for Kim Bailey thus far and whilst I don’t doubt he will win races off higher marks than this in the future, I’m not convinced today will be his day. I say that because he is usually keen to get on with things, but with SOURCHAMP in the field, he won’t be able to dominate. I backed Arthur Whiting’s gelding a week ago at Taunton, and it wasn’t just me as he was gambled on from 33’s to 9’s. He was still bang there when, if anything he overjumped at three out and fell. I think he would have been second that day, and he has races in him. He is able to race off a seven pound lower mark here, and despite reservations about him being able to dominate, a scenario which I think will suit him best, he has to be worthy of support. Carmond is on my notebook list, but the stable aren’t going all that well at present and he ran poorly on his previous start over fences, and i’m not tempted to get involved with him today. Rince Donn was lucky to win here last time and will struggle to follow up under a penalty. GORING ONE has caught my eye more than once (I haven’t got him confused with Goring Two who ran today) and he shaped with promise on his chasing debut at Wincanton two starts ago. A strongly run two miles might prove to be ideal at this stage of proceedings, and the handicapper has dropped him a full 17lb for two starts this term.
2:50 – Canni Thinkaar – 2pts each way at 5/1 or better
3:55 – Sourchamp – 3pt win at 10/3 or better, Goring One – 1.5pt win at 13/2 or betterCARLISLE
Just the one race of interest which is the Amateur Riders’ event at 4:20.
4:20
BELOW THE DECK hasn’t been seen for over a hundred days, but it was a similar story for the stables Knight Valiant before he won recently at Catterick, and the trainers’ daughter is in the saddle again for this one. This mare has yet to win a race, but she has improved on her Irish form for this yard. She ran well over this C&D eighteen months ago in heavy ground, but my feeling is that this better surface suits her better, her best run in Ireland and her last effort last season at Sedgefield were both on better ground. She didn’t run well when last seen, but that looks like being more than factored into the price. She is also effective over the minimum trip, and with a lot of slower horses in this line-up and the possibility of them not going much of a gallop, this could be run to suit.
It’s an open event, and Rare Coincidence is feared as he may get a soft lead, although he too has to bounce back from a poor effort last time (not run too well on the flat since either).4:20 – Below The Deck – 0.75pt each way at 14/1 or better
After Forest Rhythm finished fourth in the 2:30 (well backed, no excuses), I just knew I was going to get nothing out of the day, strange feeling, and I was right. Sourchamp, Fun Guy and Below The Deck all ran as flat as a pancake, I only wish I didn’t give a toss! (I know, I know it’s not Shrove Tuesday anymore). Goring One ran well, but not well enough, and yes I did press the lay button on Management, are the King horses about to burst into top form at the right time?
Four jumps meetings on Friday to get through.
Overall P/L +38pts
Lets start in the north and work our way down (ever used that as a chat up line?)
AYR
3:20
A real mix of the exposed and uxexposed over hurdles in this, and my selection LISBON LION fits into the latter category. He’s had four starts over obstacles to date, and has shown enough to suggest his can be a force in a modest handicap like this. He was running his best race until he came down at the last at Catterick last season. He didn’t run too badly in a novice event at Musselburgh in January on his return from a break and he has since run well enough at Wolverhampton. Although still a maiden, and only modest, he does usually perform with credit on the flat, and now handicapping I expect him to do the same in this. He can sometimes be a little keen, so hopefully they’ll go a good enough clip to allow him to settle in rear.
Beverly Hill ran well in a better race here in January and he’s respected, whilst King’s Chorister at the other end of the weights struggles to get his head in front, but can’t be ruled out.3:55
I remain convinced that EASTER VIC has more ability than she has shown so far on the racecourse (a point to point win aside), although at the age of ten, time is running out! I backed her to place in a novice around here last month, but she missed out and finished fourth (funnily enough the stable had there first winner in donkey’s years in the very next race with the half brother!!). She’s only had a handful of starts, and actually on her second racecourse outing she went close in a novice hurdle here, but some of the runners took the wrong course and she was disqualified. Since then she hasn’t shown too much, but on both her starts this season she has been pushed along almost from the very start, before finally consenting to run on when it’s all over. Perhaps she is just incredibly slow and can’t keep up, but I get the impression it’s more a case of laziness rather than not being able too. If i’m honest I’m not sure whether I want a strong pace for her or not, if they set off at a good clip, no doubt she’ll be struggling almost straight away, but then there is the chance she’ll be able to pick them off later on. Alternatively if there is no gallop, she’ll be able to keep up that bit easier, actually the strong pace if probably the better option as half this field aren’t the strongest of stayers. If I was involved with her I’d probably suggest trying to get her motivated early on by making the running, but I can’t pin my hopes on that happening. The handicapper has finally given her a chance, and if she doesn’t show more in this, I don’t imagine she’ll be attracting my attention anymore.
The opposition is a real mixture, Vallani is getting his act together, and I’d make him favourite, although Bubbly Breeze was in contention last time when unseating three out and he’s also worthy of consideration. The one I don’t like is Soprano, as I’m still far from convinced he wants this trip.3:20 – Lisbon Lion – 1pt each way at 11/1 or better
3:55 – Easter Vic – 0.75pt each way at 25/1 or betterLEICESTER
3:40
Humbel Times and Keyneema might struggle to last out 2m4f whilst Top Dawn needs further, Ponchatrain has never been at this best after a break and Kilvergan Boy is woefully out of form. Mr Bond i’ve learned my lesson with, and he’s certainly not one to back at a short price. Bohemian Lad might do better now on faster ground, but I quite like the look of MR GOOFY. He is a strong travelling sort when on his game and he relishes this fast ground. He might be able to dominate this lot from the front if he’s ready to go on this seasonal debut, although he appears to be just as effective when held up. He’s a two time point winner, but he wasn’t at his best on his final two starts last season under rules. This trip should be absolutely ideal for him, and although he doesn’t look thrown in off 93, if he is available to back at a double figure price in a race of this nature he simply has to be backed.
5:25
Takeroc will be all the rage in this, and whilst I don’t want to lay him, as he may well hack up against these rivals, I was disappointed with the way he quickly capitulated at Ludlow a fortnight ago. This return to two miles should be ideal, but he should have stayed on better last time in such modest company. There are obviously doubts over him at present, he’s only eight so decline in form cannot be put down to age! This isn’t a strong event, Battlefield Bob and Fairwood Present should be up there vying for a place, but MISTER POUS looks the value option. He was placed off marks in the low 100’s over hurdles for Nick Williams last season and he ran well until fading about half a mile out in a point won by Offshore Account last time. This trip will suit him better, and he’ll be getting every assistance from the saddle!
3:40 – Mr Goofy – 1.5pt each way at 7/1 or better (double figures would be very nice)
5:25 – Mister Pous – 0.75pt each way at 16/1 or betterSANDOWN
I was going to suggest King Brex each way in the first, but then I thought Olympian should be suited by the race, and in the end I’ve decided not to play at all.
2:55
Marodima cost me a small fortune when he won over three miles at Bangor last year (I didn’t think he’d stay) and he’s a horse I can never get right. Having an amateur (a respected one at that) could either work for or against his chances, and he may well never see another rival, but I think the most likely scenario is he’ll be reeled in before two out and fade up the hill. Owner Occupier is consistent enough at a lower level, but he hardly jumps off the page in this. Outside The Box will win a race before too long, but the railway fences may well put too much pressure on his jumping. Cortinas is going downhill fairly rapidly and ran terribly for his new yard who aren’t in much form at present. Classic Fly is perhaps the best jumper of a fence in the field, but he looks a shade high in the weights, and will probably be better for the run anyway. VINMIX DE BESSY has run well on his two starts over C&D and he should be well suited by the strong gallop Marodima will no doubt set. He ran terribly at Stratford on his final start last season, and didn’t exactly cover himself in glory in a jumpers bumper at Kempton in December, although it’s easy to forgive that effort. He fell early on last time at Fakenham, and so it’s only really the Stratford run you can class as really disappointing. It’s far too soon to be giving up on him, and this represents a good chance for him to show himself in a better light.
2:55 – Vinmix De Bessy – 2pt win at 7/1 (Hill’s, B365, wouldn’t accept less than 11/2)
WINCANTON
4:20
GOLDEN GAMES very much caught my eye last time at Plumpton and she looks potentially well treated now in handicap company. In finishing fifth last time, not beaten very far, she suggested she should be going close in a race of this nature off 83. Her hurdling efforts have all been on soft froound, but she has twice been second on a firmer surface on the flat, and she may well improve now racing on better ground. I do think she might be better off over slightly further, given that she stays 1m6f on the flat, but a couple of these have been known to go from the front, so she should hopefully get a true test.
Senses was the best of these on the flat, but that was two season ago and he’s shown nothing in novice events so far over hurdles. In fact quite how he’s got a mark of 85 is hard to fathom, were the handicapper strictly looking at his hurdling form, although you can understand him being cautious given his flat form and connections! An improved showing wouldn’t be a surprise. Alison Thorpe’s horses are running well of later and Special Cuvee is another who should do better now handicapping, although again he hardly looks chucked in.4:20 – Golden Games – 2.5pt each way at 4/1 or better (hopefully she’ll be at least 5’s, but as I can’t see her being out the first three, i’m willing to take a small loss if she places if necessary)
- Total Posts 17716
Another stunning effort, Robert.
Wonderful.
Gentlemen, I think we need to make the most of this service before it goes subscription only
Thanks Gentleman, it’s been a good last seven days, I’ll work out the subscription charges another time
A profit of 38.95 points on Friday thanks to Mr Goofy and Easter Vic, which is obviously very pleasing. Easter Vic’s win was more satisfying in the sense that she has been on my radar for the best part of nearly two years (only run a handful of times in that time).
Total P/L +76.95
SANDOWN
The 1:55 is a very interesting affair, as it tends to be every season, but I can’t see anything jumping off the page at me screaming to be backed. I would have priced Skint up at about 16’s, so the fact he is around half the price surprises me, and it’s another case of a horse being priced on it’s connections, rather than it’s form, for me he’s got plenty to find with some of these. If I was given a free bet I’d probably stick it on Captain Kirkton who looked most progressive before his last run which should be overlooked, as they all finished in a heap. I hope the bottom horse Occasionally Yours gives a good account for Alan Blackmore of Cool Roxy fame
I can’t get involved in the 2:25 with the unknown quantity that is Mon Parrain in the field.3:00
The Imperial Cup I looked at on Monday and I almost backed FIULIN then at 20’s. He is still available at 16’s and I think that is worth taking. I had initially been a little disappointed with his two starts this season, but in hindsight I was probably wrong to be. At Cheltenham he attempted to make all, but he was comfortably reeled in by King Of The Night who has since scored again at Doncaster in a fair novice. That wasn’t a bad effort as I suspect those aren’t tactics that bring out the best in this horse. Last time at Ascot he was third behind the highly regarded Dunraven Storm and Recession Proof, who of couse went on to land the Totesport Trophy. Back in fourth was Organisateur who has since been placed off of 152! So even though I’m sure he hasn’t performed to his best in either start, a reproduction of those efforts off his mark of 130 would probably see him very competitive. He finished seventh in the Supreme last season, and I suspect he will again be well suited by a true gallop and a large field. The decent ground is just what he wants, and although I won’t be getting too involved, taking everything into account I do think he is a little overpriced.
I would be here all night if I went through all the other runners, but of those I respect the chances of Ronaldo Des Mottes, Tito Bustillo and last weeks easy winner Via Galilei. I think there has been an over-reaction to Alarazi’s latest effort at Cheltenham, and he would be a surprise winner for me.4:40
POCKET ACES has been given a really good chance by the handicapper and I’m hoping he can take advantage. It was only three runs ago that he ran well in a competitive event at Cheltenham, over 2 miles which would have been a bit sharp. That was off a mark of 130, and yet just a few runs later he is racing of 119. He was arguably badly treated at the start, so perhaps it looks more dramatic than it is, but even so he looks overpriced in this. He’s won five from twenty four, which is a fair strike rate, and in general he does seem more at home in smaller fields. He appeared to lose a bit of confidence in his jumping at Newbury, and whilst he didn’t make any real mistakes last time at Folkestone, his jumping wasn’t as slick as it can be. He’s had a few months off, and if he returns in better form, I’d expect he’ll go close.
Peplum has perked up of late, and has to be respected despite his rise up the handicap. I backed Craiglands here last time and he ran well, but i don’t think this drop back in trip is really what he wants. Holmwood Legend and Inside Dealer usually run there races, but both looked high enough in the weights as present.3:00 – Fiulin – 1pt each way at 16/1 (various)
4:40 – Pocket Aces – 1pt each way at 12/1 or better (two firms priced up at time of writing are 10’s, but I think 12’s should be available)CHEPSTOW
4:15
A poor event that should see NEWTON TONIC involved at the business end. I’m not suggesting he is the best handicapped horse in the line-up, but there are reasons to think he should go well. A lot of his rivals I think will need further than this to stand a chance of winning a race (or another in the case of a couple). This horse looks be a two miler and apart from last time, he has travelled well for at least the first two thirds of his race. Interestingly he did produce his best effort in a bumper when making the running, and although those tactics haven’t been employed since, I wouldn’t be surprised if they adopt that role again here, as at first glance there isn’t an obvious front runner. He has more room for improvement than most, and I do believe he is capable of winning races, a statement which I couldn’t honestly apply to half of these. He’ll find this much easier than the novice events he has been contesting and if he can bounce back from a slightly flat effort last time (I’ll forgive any horse a flat run at Towcester) he should be thereabouts.
4:15 – Newton Tonic – 1.5pt each way at 13/2 or better
I very nearly put up Thedeboftheyear in the 4:45. I’ve followed her career closely and I can see her running well here if this doesn’t come to soon after a fair effort last Saturday at Kempton. She should soon be near the head of affairs, and if she gets into a good rhythm, she’ll be hard to peg back if getting into the lead on the downhill run into the straight. There are one or two that may take her on however, and that recent run may well have taken the edge off her, so all in all i’ll pass her by, but I wouldn’t put anyone off including her in any fun Saturday multiples.
Well no joy on Saturday, although the main selection Newton Tonic pulled up very early on at Chepstow, and clearly something was amiss with him. Well done to anyone who backed Skint or Alarazi, they were way down my list, although both were very tricky races, bring back the 0-90’s!
Sunday’s two cards aren’t all that inspiring but i’ve managed to dig out a few selections, although they’re a couple more at Market Rasen that I was tempted by, and I’ll mention those anyway.
I’ve just lost what I typed up and am a little pushed for time now, so i’ll keep it a little briefer than
usual.P/L +70.45
MARKET RASEN
2:20
KING MAK has been running a little better than his form figures would suggest and I fancy him to make all in this. He has run well on three of the four occasions he has visited this track, and he can be excused the one bad effort as that was over a trip that would have stretched his stamina. His two career wins have come on a softer surface, but he has plenty of form on good to soft and he shouldn’t be too inconvenienced by genuine good ground. Kyle James is a jockey with a bright future who has ridden a few winners around here, and together they should be hard to pass, if as I
expect they attempt to make all.
Baron Watlass was disappointing when well backed last time, and has a bit to prove at present. Patavium could spoil the King Mak party if he tries to muscle in up front, but he hasn’t adopted those tactics for a while. Won More Night is a very frustrating mare, she will pop up sometime but that’ll probably be over 2m, I don’t think she really stays this far.3:20
BRIMHAM BOY is a horse I backed last time, but we now know that the stable was under a bit of a cloud (horses affected by a head cold) at the time, and if he wasn’t 100% it was actually a very creditable effort. The yard are certainly firing on all cylinders now and he’s another that may attempt to lead from the front. This 2m6f trip should be right up his street, and Warren Marston gets on well with him. His two victories have been on good to soft and he shouldn’t have any excuses on account of the ground.
Of his rivals, Maurisca did at least run well last time and has won here before, but is possibly a shade hight in the weights. Oniz Tiptoes hasn’t been seen over fences for sometime and this trip is on the sharp side for him nowadays. Lorum Leader likes it here, but has to put a poor run behind him and Persian Gates didn’t look all that keen in a two runner event at Leicester the other day.2:20 – King Mak – 2pt win at 5/1 or better
3:20 – Brimham Boy – 2pt win at 9/2 or betterBoth Ginger’s Lad & Stagecoach Opal should be going close in their respective races, but I’ve just enough doubts to leave them alone. The former should be better back at this longer trip, and he looks fairly handicapped in comparision to the majority of his rivals. He usually finds one or two to beat him though, and I can leave him alone at the likely price. Stagecoach Opal came back to form with a bang a fortnight ago, and is still well handicapped on his old form, the likes of Always Bold, The Shy Man and Love Of Tara aren’t in any form at the moment, Surface To Air is using this as a prep for a shot at the National and Zitenka returns to hurdles, but will probably find this too sharp a test. Pegasus Prince has to prove his stamina for this trip but is in rude health at the moment. For anyone that likes a yankee or that type of bet, you could probably do worse than include those two with the two selections.
WARWICK
2:05
GIOVANNA has run like a right madam lately and hasn’t looked at all happy, but at return to a sounder surface and the prospect of the sun on her back might just see an improved effort. She has slipped down the handicap to the extent that a reproduction of her seasonal debut at Ascot would put he in the winners circle in this. She’ll find this surface easier to handle that the mud at Sandown last time, and the majority of her form is in the spring/summer months, so the slightly warmer weather of late might just have perked her up slightly. This is by far the easiest task she’s faced for a long long time, and although she’s obviously a risky proposition at present, at a big price I’m willing to take the plunge.
Salut Honore is interesting on his handicap debut, but connections would probably have hoped for a lower mark to start with. Empire Builder is improving with racing, and he looks likely to give a good account.5:10
GAINSBOROUGH’S ART ran pretty well on his debut for Harry Chisman here sixteen days ago, and he looks to have a fair chance in the last. I doubt the heavy ground that day would have been much to his liking and this surface should suit him better. He ran a strange race last time, he was prominent early on before dropping back and then running on again. I’m sure he’ll strip fitter for that and he looks well treated off 76 at present. He’s not always the easiest ride so the fact that Killian Moore has the use of his stick this time (hand and heels race last time) should help. He usually likes to race up with the pace and around here that’s no bad thing.
Imperial Royale achieved little in winning last time, but that should have done his confidence some good and he along with Jeanry are feared most in what is a pretty dire affair.2:05 – Giovanna – 0.75pt at 20/1 or better
5:10 – Gainsborough’s Art – 1pt each way at 10/1 or better
No joy on Sunday, King Mak ran well, but I wasn’t best pleased to see Won More Night get him to beat him. I think I’ve backed her three or four times at big prices in the last eighteen months, although admittedly I would never have backed her at the sort of price she was today.
Giovanna showed more at Warwick, and would have finished closer still if had Sean Quinlan not decided to stop riding once they had almost got back on terms entering the straight, one to watch next time perhaps, dropped a 1lb into a 0-105? There was a lot of confidence behind Gainsboroughs Art at Warwick, but he ran a poor race, as did Brimham Boy whom had no confidence behind him.Onwards and upwards we go into Monday. Three jump meetings, quite a few tricky small field events, and a few of my selections might prove familar to you if you’ve been reading since the start,. But I assure you it’s not a case of backing these horses blind (sometimes I wish I did as One More Night would have been a winner then!) I do believe they have a fair chance in the races they are entered in. They’re two entries on the all-weather that interest me on Wednesday, the final decs for those are tomorrow, so more on those then, if they remain entered.
Just before I move onto Monday’s selections, I’ll just list a staking plan for Cheltenham. I backed a couple of them already at bigger prices than they are now (most notably Maljimar and The Giant Bolster) but I still believe they offer value at the current odds. I might end up backing one or two more, and I’ll list those day by day as the final decs come out, but these are the ones I would suggest now, I’ll take or add them to the profit/loss after each day’s racing.
Tuesday
Arkle – Realt Dubh – 1pt each way at 8/1 (various)
Champion Hurdle – Clerks Choice- 0.5pt each way at 66/1 (various)
X-Country – Maljimar – 2.5pt each way at 8/1 (various)Wednesday
NH Chase – Cannington Brook – 1.5pt each way at 25/1 (various)
RSA Chase – The Giant Bolster – 1pt each way at 16/1 (various)
Fred Winter – Kayef – 1pt each way at 25/1 (various)Thursday
World Hurdle – Fivefothree – 1pt each way at 12/1 (various)
Friday
Gold Cup – What A Friend – 0.75pt each way at 40/1 (various)
Foxhunters – Oscatello – 1pt each way at 33/1 (various)
Grand Annual – Williams Wishes – 2pt each way at 12/1 (various)Monday 14th March – Total P/L +62.95
Plumpton
2:00
AMAURY DE LUSIGNAN was a bit of an eye catcher last time and he should be up to winning this weak maiden hurdle. The form looked pretty good at the time by Fakenham standards, but it’s been boosted still further with San Rem Bello and Occasionally Yours both running very well in the EBF final at Sandown on Saturday, and Camden has also subsequently finished second at Newbuy.
He ran to about 115 that day, and that would probably be good enough to take this.
His main rival may well turn out to be Shootin The Breeze who showed promise in a bumper at Newbury. He was brought down last time at Ffos Las, although he was beginning to go backwards having run a fair race until that point. Inner Steel has been disappointing so far for Lydia Richards, and has an official rating of 104, he’ll probably be better off in handicaps over 3m in due course. Twin Bud and Two Cloudy both have place chances, but it would be disappointing if either finished in front of the selection.5:00
VENETIAN LAD is a horse I’ve been banging on about this season, but this is his first chance in a handicap and I expect him to do significantly better now. Although he handled heavy ground well on his bumper debut third at Newbury, I’m not sure he’s quite ready at this stage of his career for slogs in those conditions, so a return to a sounder surface which he’s also shown form on, will I’m sure see improvement. He ran quite well here on his hurdling debut in November behind Jetnova who has since won again off a mark of 128. The second that day has since won a maiden chase, the thid Frontier Spirit has been placed off 117 and the fourth Paint The Clouds placed off 115. Venetian Lad was only just behind him, and just in front of Twin Bud, who goes in the first here, and is officially rated 98. I would therefore suggest that if he reproduces that effort, he is nicely handicapped off a mark of 93. He made the running last time in a novice at Fontwell, but I hope that he is ridden with more restraint here on his first start over 3m+.
Current Climate showed more last time, and he is probably a worthy favourite, although I can’t understand why Blazing Empress is 7/2 at the moment whilst Cloudy Wager who beat her comfortably here in a novice two starts ago is 8/1, especially given the fact that the latter will be the better suited of the two by the better ground.2:00 – Amaury De Lusignan – 3pts win at 11/4 or better –
5:00 – Venetian Lad – 1pt each way at 14/1 (B365, VC) –
TAUNTON2:20
SHIANDA wasn’t quite as good as a few of these on the flat, but she was very consistent, stayed ten furlongs well, acts on quicker ground and overall just strikes me as one that should take to hurdling. She’s quite a nippy type who should be well suited to this tight layout. She usually travels well in her races on the flat, and has shown a good turn of foot at a lowly level.
A turn of foot is one thing I’m not sure Balerina has, and for all that she acquitted herself well in an all age handicap last time at Doncaster, she may well get done for a bit of toe here. Shesells Seashells was a miler on the flat, and it looks 50/50 as to whether she’ll quite last out, and I just have my doubts as whether she’ll be a natural at this game. Mavalenta put in a very tame effort at Plumpton last month and cannot be backed after that. Napoleons Mistress is a well bred filly, who has only seen the racecourse once (as a two year old). She’s a bit of a unknown quantity and the market should be revealing in respect of her chances.3:20
I make no apology for suggesting that even at 15/8 FOUNTAINS FLYPAST is worth backing, although I am better at selecting horses at bigger prices, I honestly can’t see what will beat him here. He’s gone up 6lb for his recent win here, which is fair enough, and is still only rated 117, a mark I think he is better than. He doesn’t lack for toe, so the drop back in trip on slightly faster ground isn’t in the least bit concerning. Pretty much all his rivals have something to prove at present, and I would have priced him up at nearer evens, so at 15/8 I have to back him.
Advancement is an interesting runner, but the stable aren’t known for getting theirs ready to win after a break, never mind one of 878 days. The only one I can really see giving the selection a race is Salontyre, but he really does look to high in the weights at present.4:20
EASTON CLUMP is a horse I’ve backed on his last two starts, and whilst I’m not convinced he really is crying out for this trip as a lot of people are suggesting, I believe he can see it out well enough around here to break his duck. He was unlucky to bump into a rejuvenated Laterly last time at Huntingdon, and I can see nothing like him lurking in this line-up. The fact that the likes of Man Of Leisure and Monsieur are his main market rivals shows what a weak race this is, and if my belief that this horse is a bit better than his current mark suggests is true, he really ought to be up to taking this.
5:20
REEFER BEEFER has looked pretty moody on occasions in his short career so far, but I still think he’s worth a little support in this moderate staying handicap. He is bred to want this sort of trip, but this is the first time he’s run over further than 2m3f. That run was actually around here on quick ground, and it was his best effort to date, when he finished fifth of fourteen, although beaten a fair way. He made his handicap debut off a mark of 100, which seemed very harsh, last time in a bog at Lingfield, and he barely went a yard that day. The handicapper has been quick to drop him 10lb to 90, and whilst that could still prove to be on the high side, it does at least give him a more realistic chance.
The opposition are, as you would expect, moderate to say the least. Flying Award is the most interesting alternative in that he is also now stepping up in trip for the first time under rules (winning point to pointer). The five veterans at the foot of the weights have all seen better days and it would be a surprise if any of those proved good enough.2:20 – Shianda – 1pt each way at 15/2 or better –
3:20 – Fountains Flypast – 4pts win at 15/8 (VC, Hills) –
4:20 – Easton Clump – 2pts each way at 4/1 or better –
5:20 – Reefer Beefer – 1pt each way at 12/1 or better –
STRATFORDIf backing odds-on shots is your thing, that Palawi and Cork All Star should do the business for you, both look to have outstanding claims. My Brother Sylvest could spring back to life in the seller, and is a possible back to lay contender. The best race on the card is the 4:10 which looks wide open with a tentative vote going to Veiled Applause. It’s an interesting card, but nothing grabs me enough to want to put as a selection on here.
Some ramblings to go with some of my Cheltenham Picks
FRED WINTER
Only twenty four have been declared for this at the five day stage, and several of them are still in the Triumph as well, including my selection. So many of these look terribly handicapped, in fact it’s almost laughable the mark that many of them have been given. Already it doesn’t look like being that strong a race, but it could cut up yet further, and therefore I’ve backed my fancy this morning at 25/1 which is KAYEF. I saw this horse in the flesh at Sandown a few weeks ago when he won. That was the day of the rearranged Totesport Trophy meeting at Newbury which obviously had a lot of attention focused on it, so I just wonder if this horse has been overlooked. It’s not so much what he beat at Sandown, but the way he did it. He travelled well throughout the race, and ran on really strongly up the Sandown hill, which augurs well for Cheltenham. I was really taken with him as an individual, and like his sire he has a really fluid action. The likelihood of good ground looks a plus for him, and whilst I’m not suggesting he’s thrown in off 120, on a line through Ostentation he looks to be treated fairly anyway.
FOXHUNTERS
I’ve spent quite a while researching this race, and I may just have found a lively outsider in the shape of OSCATELLO. The name may be familiar to you, he’s a former Ian Williams and Philip Hobbs inmate, with previous festival form. This horse was fourth in the 2007 Coral Cup, and eigth in the 2009 running of the Martin Pipe. Not only that but he has actually won a novice hurdle around here in the past, so he clearly goes well here. He had a couple of chase outings in Novice Chases, jumping well on both occasions, winning one and finishing second in the other. Since joining current connections he has won four of his five point to points, including his only start this year at Buckfastleigh, a race I’ve watched online. Admittedly it wasn’t much of an event, but he couldn’t have won much easier and apparently the owner/trainer Ross Oliver had been in hospital and was relying on someone else to keep the horse fit for him, clearly they did a good job, but you’d imagine he will be better for it. He had one Hunter Chase outing last season at Folkestone in May and he hacked up there, jumping well and winning with his head in his chest. This horse has clearly had his problems throughout a light career, but as far as one can tell he hasn’t lost much if any of his ability, and just as important, his enthusiasm is still there. The prospect of good fast ground will be right up his street, he bounces off a sound surface, and whats more Polly Gundry is booked to ride, which is very encouraging as I’m sure she would have had the choice of a few of these. He jumps well, he stays well (but isn’t the plodder that a lot of those entered are) he’ll like the ground and he’s in good form. I think he would get through the balloting system, although it’s not 100% clear, although of course if he didn’t get a run you get your money back anyway.
Baby Run is clearly the one to beat, and On The Fringe is very much considered, but the 33’s on Oscatello looks the value call to me.Arkle – Realt Dubh
I like the way this horse travels, the way he jumps, and the way he knuckles down at the business end. He won a point to point as a young horse and has also won over 2m4f under rules. I highlight that fact, as I believe most winners of this race require the stamina to get further than the minimum trip, the real speedsters just don’t last home in this brutal race. He has done most of his racing on soft/heavy ground, but on the couple of occasions he’s encountered a sounder surface, he has appeared to handle it fine. He was a fair seventh in the Ballymore at last years festival, but I believe has has improved since then, and is better over the larger obstacles. I’m not convinced by Finian’s Rainbow, whilst Ghizao might be the one to get collared close home. Medermit is much respected, but beyond those it’s hard to see anything else that can be easily fancied, although if Starluck does take his chance it’ll be fascinating to see how he gets on.
Cross Country Chase – Maljimar
This old boy has seemingly been lined up for this race for a while, as he doesn’t have a national entry this time. He performed very well on his first attempt around this layout, and should perhaps have almost won that race if he’d been a little handier a bit earlier. Were this race over the park fences I’d have him clear favourite, and at 14’s having proved himself around here already, he looks just about the bet of the festival to me, with only the usual faces of Garde Champetre, L’Ami and Sizing Australia in opposition, and none of the longshots standing out as much of a threat.
National Hunt Chase – Cannington Brook
I hope this horse goes for the this event as I think that looks like being the weaker than Kim Muir. He has already shown he handles this track well, and his jumping is good for the most part. He is an ideal ride for an Amateur, given that he is a strong travelling type, who shouldn’t need too much driving along. He’s got a touch of class that most of the entries don’t possess, and ran Silver Kate close enough at Warwick recently to suggest he’s in fair form at present. I would be most fearful of Chicago Grey and Beshabar, whereas I think Alfa Beat is a bit over hyped and too short and Wayward Prince is a hard ride, probably not best suited to an amateur. At 25/1 I think the selection represents good value. Were he to go for the Kim Muir he may still be of interest, but at the moment the entries for that are stronger, although he looks fairly handicapped at present, but I’d want to wait and see the final decs before making a decision.
Grand Annual – Williams Wishes
Although he’s not beaten much in his three novice chases thus far, he could hardly have been more impressive. His jumping has been virtually faultless, and he has a really likeable way of going about his business. Only a six year old, there is surely more to come from him, and even if French Opera doesn’t stand his ground, he’ll still have a really attractive racing weight. The flat out gallop will suit this strong traveller well, and even 16’s represents good value in my mind as the majority of his likely rivals have no secrets from the handicapper, and are rather more exposed. I just hope connections do decide on this race, rather than the Arkle, I’m sure they will unless a couple of the leading fancies for the latter fall by the wayside between now and then.
A disappointing Monday, with two non-runners (Fountains Flypast and Reefer Beefer, the latter was heavily supported before being taken out) The Gary Moore horse was never a backable price at Plumpton, just as well as he trailled home third. Shianda showed a bit at Taunton, but never looked like getting involved. Venetian Lad I was disappointed with, maybe a fourth start in six weeks was too much, I’m stubborn, but I still think they’re races to be won with him next season. Easton Clump was the biggest loser, he never looked happy on the ground and was quickly pulled up down the back straight. Perhaps in hindsight I should have seen that happening, but I did think he’d handle it, hands up, I was wrong.
Well it all kicks off tomorrow at Cheltenham and I’ve already selected these
Arkle – Realt Dubh – 1pt each way at 8/1 (various)
Champion Hurdle – Clerks Choice- 0.5pt each way at 66/1 (various)
X-Country – Maljimar – 2.5pt each way at 8/1 (various)I backed Maljimar a while ago at 14’s, anything under 7’s is beginning to look short enough.
Having looked at the other races, I’m not going to add anymore suggestions. The 2:40 looks very tricky, but if I had to pick one then Wolf Moon would be the choice down at the bottom of the weights. I’ll be cheering on Sparky May in the mares’ as it would be a great story if she won, but obviously Quevega looks the most likely winner. On Borrowed Wings would be the pick in a very competitive finale, if your banking on that race getting you out of trouble, good luck! Whoops I forgot to mention the Supreme, probably because I’ve not been able to decide whether Cue Card should be backed or not, so I’ve concluded I’ll just cheer him home for the Tizzards without backing him.P/L +54.95
SEDGEFIELD
1:45
GLACED OVER clearly goes well fresh, as she had a race at her mercy here in September when getting rid of her jockey at the final flight. The 7lb claimer makes way for Richie McGrath and she looks to be a viable alternative to the likely hot favourite Streamstown. The handicapper has the selection 3lb ahead of Streamtown on ratings. Whilst I’m not sure thats quite right, the fact is that Glaced Over clearly likes the course, is best after a break (ran well in a bumper on her racecourse debut) and will have no problem on the ground. She’s currently trading at double figure prices on the exchanges, admittedly for small money, in a race lacking any strength in depth, thats surely too big.
Streamstown has been consistent of late, and will find this easier than the races she has been competing in, although I certainly wouldn’t want to be taking long odds-on about her! Floraclock has shown glimpses of ability and the Sue Smith yard are now banging in a few winners, so she’s one to keep an eye on.4:15
Well you won’t see too many worse races than this, a 0-85 handicap chase. The last horse to win a race under rules was Coldwells in December 2008!!!! Several of these have yet to get their hand in front, and a few of them may never manage that. On a day when nearly everyone will have their eyes focused on Prestbury Park and won’t even have looked at this card, I’m quite happy to spend as much time on this as any race, and I think I may just have found one in the shape of MIND SHOWER. Without watching his races you couldn’t possibly fancy him by looking at the form on paper and seeing just how far he has been getting beaten by. However having reviewed his races, I’m in no doubt that he has more ability than those efforts would at first suggest. On his first three starts over hurdles he was always held up out the back and never once looked like getting competitive, but he travelled well enough for a long way in those races. Switched to handicap company he set out to make all over 3m in a race won by Wor Rom. He showed up for a fair way until waving the white flag and the jockey wasn’t too hard on him. There was a bit of money for him around that day, he only went off at 18’s, you would have thought 50’s might have been nearer the mark. I get the impression they changed tactics just to check that they did indeed have a horse with enough ability to pick up a little race. He had three point starts in Ireland, finishing third on one occasion. Last time he ran here over C&D in a novice chase and was last of those to finish. Again he was held up and never really sighted, but he jumped rather well and wasn’t given a hard time of it. As I said at the start, this is a seriously bad race, and if connections think this is horse is up to winning a race, surely they will be going all out for this, they won’t find any easier opportunities.
They’re more obvious alternatives, the likes of The Green Hat and Ravensbill who have at least been competitive recently. But at what I hope will be a rather nice price, I’m sticking with Mind Shower.1.45 – Glaced Over – 1.5pt each way at 6/1 or better
4:15 – Mind Shower – 1.5pt each way at 12/1 or better (hoping for 20’s)So the first day is over, and if I’m honest none of the winners really stirred any emotion in me. Wins for the Nicholls, King, Hobbs, Mullins and Ferdy Murphy yards, which is to be expected, but it would have been nice if a smaller stable had picked up a prize, although Sparky May ran bravely in defeat. I’m a bit pushed for time, so I won’t review all the races (I’m not sure that would be of much interest to anyone anyway).
Of the ones I backed, Maljimar looked the most likely winner until approaching the last, but he just didn’t quite get home and was even touched off for fourth in the end. Anyone who backed him in the Ante-Post market will get paid out for the place, which isn’t too bad as I got between 10 & 14’s a few weeks ago. You will also get paid if you backed him for a place on the exchanges, a few bookmakers were also paying out for fourth on non ante-post bets. I think the fairest thing to do on here is not to add any profit from the bet, but no loss either, I’ll treat it as a nothing bet.
Realt Dubh ran a respectable race, but simply wasn’t good enough. I was actually pleased with how well Clerk’s Choice ran as well. I think he was ridden to get in the money, which he just about did. He’s a bonny little horse who should give connections a lot of fun in the coming seasons, he might hard to place though! I did place lay Mille Chief at least, a horse I’ve maligned as not good enough on here in the past.
I was lucky that Captain Chris beat Finian’s Rainbow who I laid, and I was lucky that Bensalem was trading at the price he was, I expected him to be shorter, and although he did get backed before the off, I didn’t get matched. Still it’s not a good feeling wanting to be against a horse at those odds and seeing it win.
As for the two at Sedgefield, Glaced Over finished, you guessed it, fourth, although beaten a fair way, so no complaints. Mind Shower made a couple of bad mistakes and was never really in the contest.
That’s four losing days on the spin, but it happens, especially when most of the horses you back are double figure prices. But still, four days losses haven’t even wiped out last Friday’s losses alone yet, and I have a good feeling about Wednesday, I hope I’m right.Total P/L +49.95
Cheltenham
The bad news is that Cannington Brook hasn’t been declared for the NH Chase, which is a blow as he was one of my strongest fancies for the week. I had backed him a little before NRMB was introduced, but with the doubts over his participation I didn’t get too involved. The other two I selected on Monday are:
RSA Chase – The Giant Bolster – 1pt each way at 16/1 (various)
Fred Winter – Kayef – 1pt each way at 25/1 (various)The reasons for siding with those two are in the thread titled Cheltenham Thoughts Take Two.
I can’t find anything else in the National Hunt Chase, and anyone betting in the bumper is either braver or more foolish than myself, I won’t say which I think! but their is one more I would like to add for tomorrow and thats in the Coral Cup.
4:00
I’ve been waiting for ORSIPPUS to step up to this trip and he stands out to me at the prices. He was third in the Fred Winter here last year, and was running on strongly at the finish. He then went to Aintree and won the big 4-yo race there (doing me a favour in the process). He’s looks to be very much a good ground horse and seems to come to himself at this time of year. Look a lot of second season hurdlers, he has struggled somewhat so far this time around, but his seventh in the Greatwood showed some promise, and again hinted that this step up in trip will help. He’s been dropped a few pounds since then, and is generally a 40’s chance. Back him with one of the many firms paying five places
4:00 – Orsippus – 0.75pt each way at 40/1 (various)
HUNTINGDON
4:55
Emmaslegend hacked up just the other day, and it can only have been the first time tongue tie that transformed her, as she had been well beaten in similar contests. Potentially she is chucked in under a penalty with her capable amateur taking off the 7lb. I’m sure connections wouldn’t have run her so soon had their hand not been forced by the handicapper, and although i’m very worried about her, she will make the market for two horses I’ve been waiting to back in a race of this nature, now they have fallen down the weights and are racing on quicker ground. They are CARY’S LAD and KILBREADY STAR. The former’s only career victory came in a novice hurdle over this distance on good to firm ground in 2007! He’s obviously had problems since then. But I’ve seen enough in five starts this season to suggest some ability remains. He didn’t run too badly here in November only fading after three out on softer ground when racing off a mark of 90. Last time at Sedgefield again he hinted that he could still pick up a race, and wasn’t given too hard a time. He’s come down another 5lb to a mark of just 75, and this is the quickest ground he’s been able to race on in a couple of years. Kilbready Star caught my eye here in a novice event in October when finishing fifth (albeit beaten 30 lengths) over this C&D on good ground. Given that run came just two weeks after his initial comeback from a break of over two years, it wasn’t at all bad. He has since been competing on softer surfaces which don’t seem to suit. He won his only race in 2007 also at Gowran on good ground, and was then second on firm ground at Cork over this trip. I know that was a fair while ago, but like Cary’s Lad I’ve seen enough to think all isn’t quite lost. The handicapper has dropped him a massive 8lb since his last run, and with conditions to suit off such a lowly rating, I’m more than hopeful that he too will be involved
Borderhopper showed more last time, but he looks painfully slow, Sambelucky is the only other one worthy of any consideration.4:55 – Cary’s Lad – 1.5pt each way at 9/1 or better (should get around 12’s I would hope) – Kilbready Star – 1pt each way at 14/1 or better (20’s would be brilliant)
KEMPTON
6:50
DEMOISELLE BOND very much caught my eye on her debut at Lingfield and is worthy of support in such a weak contest. I’ve already backed on Lydia Richards horse this week in Venetian Lad who didn’t run too well, but her other runner at Plumpton Inner Steel did finish second. Ms Richards has handled Brilliant Red superbly in days gone by on the flat, and also got many a win out of the old sprinter Double M. However she isn’t known for getting newcomers ready to win on their debuts and this filly was very green and very slowly away at Lingfield. Richard Thomas allowed her to find her stride, and she was making ground before running green again around the bend into the straight. She made up quite a few lengths under tender handling and should have learnt an awful lot from that experience. The favourite Grand Piano has a rating of 65 which tells you all you need to know, and I’m sure the selection will be overlooked on the basis that her stable haven’t had a flat winner for years, which is a misleading statistic in my opinion.
6:50 – Demoiselle Bond – 1.5pt each way at 10/1 or better (hopefully better)
Orsippus came to the rescue today, after The Giant Bolster departed early on, I feared it could be a total washout, but the blog is actually in profit at Cheltenham at the moment, albeit a small one! Orsippus travelled well throughout the race, and got hampered turning in. It didn’t make much of a difference as the winner won well. I’m sure he’ll end up at Aintree now, he won there last season, so is one to look out. I’m glad I hardly get involved in the other races as I wouldn’t have sided with any of the winners if I’m honest. Kayef made a terrible blunder at the second and was on the backfoot thereafter.
Unfortunately over at Huntingdon, Kilbready Star ran an absolute shocker, and Cary’s Lad was a non runner in the same race. Demoiselle Bond ran ok at Kempton this evening, she was a little keen early on and didn’t pick up when asked for an effort, she needs one more for a handicap mark.Well tomorrow will be my first time at the festival. I am looking forward to it, I’m sure it’ll be an experience, but if I was going to Towcester instead I’d be just as pleased!
Overall P/L +47.70
CHELTENHAM
The one bet I’ve already put up is 1pt each way Fiveforthree at 12’s for the World Hurdle.
Don’t get your Mr’s mixed up in the Jewson, Mr Cracker, Mr Gardner and Mr Thriller all take their chance, and I would side with the latter of the three. I do think that Wishfull Thinking is the most likely winner and the was available at 6’s just a few days ago. I wouldn’t have had a bet, but as I’m going I’ll be having a few quid on Bouggler who’ll be suited by a truely run race, and he wants the quicker ground. He’s not trained in Ireland though!!
The Pertemps really does look impossible. My second favourite jumps horse in training, Knockara Beau shoulders top weight and I’ll be backing him and cheering him on along with Mr Moonshine who I’m sure will be seen in novice chases next season. Buena Vista seems to come to live here and he might have one last hurrah, and I hope Alfie Spinner runs well for the Williams team who still can’t get that elusive festival winner.
The Ryanair is a fascinating race with the first three home from last year taking each other on again. For the first time in my life I could find myself backing Albertas Run, who shouldn’t be three times the price of Poquelin who i’ll probably be laying. Kalahari King has been a nearly horse so far in his career, but I do think he has more of a chance over this trip. The inclusion of Vor Por Ustedes adds further interest.
4:00
Having looked through this race, it perhaps isn’t quite as competitive as I first thought. Several of these are handicapped right up to their best, a couple have concerns on this quicker ground, and the likes Consigliere and Matuhi will struggle to get up the hill. Taking everything into account I think AIMIGAYLE is absolutely massive at 40’s. She made her comeback after an absence of fifteen months at Sandown forty days ago. She ran very well at the head of affairs for the majority of the race until appearing to blow up half a mile from home. Once her chance was gone she was allowed to coast home before being pulled up before the last. Apparently she did in fact scope badly after the race, which I actually see as a positive, if she can ran that well after a long break and a bad scope, what can she do now? I trust Suzy Smith, she’s a good trainer who does the right thing by her horses, and the fact that she lines up here tells me she must be 100% ready in her opinion. She’s only had seven chase starts, she won the Mare’s Final at Newbury and was a very good second in the United House at Ascot off a mark of 134. The handicapper has generously dropped her 7lb for her comeback, and she is now back off the mark she won the Mares’ final from. All six career victories have been gained on good ground and she will relish the hill, given that she stays three miles. I’d imagine she’ll bounce out and either make the running or at least lie second/third (I can only see a couple more that may try the same). I’m sure Colin Bolger will want to make it a true test and if this mare is ready for this, she is no 40/1 chance!!
My second choice would be Edgbriar who gave Dominic Elsworth his comeback winner here over C&D earlier in the season. He bounced back to form over two miles at Sandown last time and I’m sure he’ll race handily too. Throw in Gansey and you’ve got the tricast, simple!The Kim Muir looks just as tough as the Pertemps. I could pick half the field and not be confident I’d get one in the first three. A tentative choice is Minella Theatre who appears to go well after a break, likes good ground and is still has room for improvement over fences. With Richard Burton in the saddle, he shouldn’t have any excuses.
3:20 – Fiveforthree – 1pt each way at 12/1 (already suggested)
4:00 – Aimigayle – 2pts each way at 40/1 (Stan James/Boylesports, or 33’s Betfred who are paying five places, I prefer taking my chances with the 40’s first four) If the 40’s disappears, I still think 33/28’s is a great price.
TOWCESTER3:05
Several of these have been around this track before including my main selection CASPAR OF TARSUS. The handicapper has been quick to drop him for two poor efforts so far this season, and he is now 6lb lower than when he won at Hereford last season, and 13lb lower than when he finished third here last May. So the first reason to consider him, is the fact he’s now very well treated. Secondly I’m sure he’s better on a sounder surface which he’ll get here, and thirdly his trainer had a big priced double here a couple of weeks ago at the last meeting, so his small string would appear to be in good form. If you want another reason to back him, the excellent Donal Devereux takes off 3lb, and he has ridden four times in chases at this track, winning twice (he also won on his only hurdles mount here). I’m not a stats guy, but it’s nice to know! He looks set to be the value in the race.
Atherstone Hill is still lightly raced, but the fact that the ground is now quicker, coupled with his rise in the weights could find him out. Delgany Gunner has got up my nose by winning his last two, as I’d previously backed him a few times at big prices. He’s in good form at present, but he started off a very low mark, and is only 2lb better off running here under a penalty. I wouldn’t want to be taking a short price about him. Myself and LONESOME BOATMAN have a bit of history, and he’s shown enough in a couple of hurdles starts to suggest he could get involved if the mood takes him. He has twice gone very close here, including when just touched off by The Ferbane Man in a beginners chase. He too will like the quicker ground and he’s worth a small covering bet at the likely prices.3:05 – Casper Of Tarsus – 1.5pt each way at 8/1 or better, Lonesome Boatman – 0.75pt each way at 10/1 or better
The fields at both Towcester and in partiuclar Hexham have really cut up, and I don’t see anything I want to risk backing in falsely run races on heavy ground at the latter venue. Good luck to those competing over 4 miles! I hope we don’t get scenes reminiscent of the Eider.
I got home at about 8:30pm and it’s now gone midnight as I start to type. I suspect I may not be up in time for The Morning Line (even if I were it wouldn’t get switched on!) so I thought I’d better do this now.
I might write more about my thoughts on the "Festival" experience at the weekend. It had it’s good and bad points, but I’m quite glad now that I didn’t go for the whole meeting as I was once planning to do. Despite it being the most low profile day, I think it beat the first two days for the stories it created, and it was a profitable one, which helped my mood.
As far as this thread was is concerned, Aimigayle ran her heart out in the 2m5f handicap chase, and I couldn’t have asked for any more from her. I won’t often go 2pts each way on a 33’s shot, but she was twice the price I thought she should have been. Of couse I would have preferred her to win, but if one horse was going to beat her I’m glad it was Holmwood Legend for Pat Rodford and Kieran Burke. With race after race being dominated by all the top yards, I was delighted that they took the prize.
In hindsight perhaps backing Fiveforthree wasn’t one of my better moves given that he faced two very strong opponents, but given all his injury problems he acquitted himself with credit, although less than ten lengths seperated the first nine home. I freely admit that a couple of seasons ago I couldn’t see Kasbah Bliss being beaten by Big Bucks (in my defence the fact that he started odds-on suggested I wasn’t alone) and even for a few runs after that I still didn’t warm to him. Today was the first time I’d seen him in the flesh (well I got a view from about 6 people back in the parade ring) and he is a gorgeous looking horse. You can’t argue with his record, what a shame Baracouda isn’t around at the same time. I wonder if he will go for the Gold Cup next season…………………
Knockara Beau ran his heart out in the Pertemps. Every now and then I do get attached too certain horses, and it then becomes difficult to be objective over their chance. Having said that I can’t believe he was 33/1!! That was an insult to him, he’s classy and gutsy, if only he got his jumping together (I’m afraid Jan would have to go, but he rides him perfectly over hurdles) he could win a big prize like the Hennesey off his chasing mark. I did give a mention to Buena Vista who was my third choice (didn’t have a penny on) and that was another good sight to see, a real warrior.
In between those two was Albertas Run (who I did back, for the first time ever) and so three races in a row were won by the same horses as last year. Perhaps someone who follows "the stats" backed them all. I do find some trends/statistics interesting, but i’ve heard far too much about them over the past few days. Barely do they enter into the equation when I’m looking at a race, and that’ll never change.
Over at Towcester, the main talking point was the novice chase in which no horses finished! Surely the remounting rule needs to be reviewed. Lonesome Boatman ran well to finish second behind Atherstone Hill, Casper Of Tarsus was a non-runner, so a tiny profit was made on the race, bringing the overall profit for the day to 16pts (worked out on 33’s for Aimigayle)
Overall P/L +63.70
CHELTENHAM
The first thing to say is where is Williams Wishes?? After being entered in four races at the five day stage, the Grand Annual was supposedly his target, but yet he’s not in it. I’ve had a quick search and I can’t find any word as to why he’s not declared. Given the doubts over which race he was going for I waited for the NRNB option, so whilst I’ve not lost anything, it’s still disappointing that one of my main hopes for the meeting isn’t taking part.
The clouds were forming as I departed Cheltenham and it has apparently been raining, more rain is forecast in the morning, but I doubt it will be any worse than genuine good to soft ground.
I’ve already suggested (I was going to use the word advised again, but that sounds too tipsterish!) two horses, one is Oscatello at 33’s for the Foxhunters. At least he has been declared, and I remain keen on his chances.The other is What A Friend at 40’s for the Gold Cup. Good to Soft ground will be fine, although it’s a shame it has rained, as I quite fancied his chance of reaching the frame on good ground, but I’m still happy enough with a little each way on him at 40’s in the first time blinkers.
I do actually fancy a few others at big prices on the card tomorrow, but it’s getting late so I might have to keep it briefer than usual.
1:30
The Triumph and before I go any further I should point out that whilst I don’t have a bet in this race every year, when I have I’ve not had the winner since Kissair in 1995, when I was thirteen years old and my nan put a pound each way on for me (16/1)!
It’s not a race I thought I’d be getting involved with this year, but having taken another look, at 66/1 MISTER CARTER has to be worth a small interest. He’s a useful horse on the flat (rated in the 90’s) and only had four runs on the level before making a winning hurdling debut at Limerick in soft/heavy ground, before disappointing slightly in even heavier ground at Punchestown. My reasons for supporthing him are….1) He has won two races, the first on his debut, the second after a six month break, he clearly goes well fresh and has been off the track for sixty nine days. 2) His two wins have been gained on the only occasions he has raised in double figure fields, suggesting the hurly burly of this race is unlikely to trouble him. 3) Finally those two hurdle runs have been on very testing ground, which he appears go handle, but he has shown on the flat that he handles quicker ground too, and he should have more to give on a better surface over hurdles. He’s from a respected yard who don’t send runners here without good reason. Several of those shorter in the betting aren’t as good on the flat, and quite simply he’s overpriced. Smad Place looks a likely type for this, but it’s a wide open renewal so backing anything at a shorter price doesn’t appeal to me.2:05
I’m going to back two in the County, the first one is ZANIR. He’s twice run at the festival, in 2008 he was seventh in the Fred Winter, and last season he was fourth in this very race. He’s only had the two starts this term, on the first of those he was a fair fourth at Kempton behind Ski Sunday, and last time he was running a very good race in the rearranged Totesport Trophy when coming to grief two out. He’s only 2lb higher than last year, and is lightly raced in recent seasons, and I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him yet. He shapes like he should get 2m4f, and is clearly suited by the stiff two miles here. He hardly every runs a bad race, is at his best in these big fields, and at 33’s quarter the odds first five, he just looks too big.
The other horse I like is SPRING JIM for James Fanshawe. This horse finished sixth in the Supreme here last season and despite being a ten year old, he’s only had five career starts over hurdles. Following that superb effort he was a respectable fourth back here in April behind Captain Chris. He then had a few flat runs and was last seen over hurdles when being given a quiet run around behing Aegean Dawn at Ascot. The handicapper reacted by dropping him 4lb which lets him in here off a very handy 133. He has run two solid races in defeat on the all-weather over the winter, which is encouraging and 50’s is just too tempting.2:40
Another race I wasn’t sure I’d be playing in, but again one stands out as being too big a price and thats OUR ISLAND. His form clearly isn’t as strong as a few of these, but judging by his two runs under rules so far, he looks the type that only just does enough, and he could well be capable of a fair bit more. I’ve been really impressed with his attitude, both at Ffos Las and at Newbury, and he is a real out and out stayer, something a few of these don’t appear to be. He handled faster ground well in his Irish points, so even if it is still riding fairly quick, I don’t expect that to be a problem, although I’d prefer a little ease in the ground for him, just to put the emphasis more on stamina. To coin a well used expression, he should be running on when others have cried enough, and in race lacking much depth, he looks worth a shot at 28’s.
I’ve already mentioned the Gold Cup and the Foxhunters, and I can’t find anything I wish to back in the last two races, I think five races is enough!! In the Martin Pipe I can see Astracad running better than his odds suggest, whilst in the Grand Annual I’d love to see one of the worst handicapped horses in training over fences, Chaninbar run well. I’ve always been a fan of Shoreacres and he should be going close off his mark. All the talk is about I’msingingtheblues being laid out for this, his campaign to date doesn’t suggest thats the case, and he’s not a horse I’d be trying to lay out for a gamble. He’s probably got more natural talent than any of these, and is capable of winning, but I personally wouldn’t touch him at singles figures in a competitive race like this.
1:30 – Mister Carter – 0.5pt each way at 66/1 (Hills and Stan James, first four, would also accept 50’s)
2:05 – Zanir – 1pt each way at 33/1 (B365, first five, would accept 25’s, Skybet paying first six)
Spring Jim – 0.75pt each way at 50/1 (B365 & Paddy Power, both first five, would accept 40’s)
2:40 – Our Island – 0.75pt each way at 28/1 (various, would accept 25’s)
3:20 – What A Friend – 1pt each way at 40/1 (already suggested, 33’s available now still fair)
4:00 – Oscatello – 1pt each way at 33/1 (already suggested, might now get 40’s)FAKENHAM
5:30
Just the one bet on the card and that comes in the last race courtesty of hurdling newcomer MISTER FROSTY (bring back childhood memories of making ice lollies, google it if you have no idea what I’m talking about). He’s not great shakes on the flat but is at least the equal of most of these,. He took an age to break his duck, which he finally did at the 28th attempt at Lingfield in January. I don’t think their is anything wrong with his attitude, and he’s quite consistent at a lowly level. He stays 1m4f well and is quite a handy type so this sharp two miles shouldn’t prove to be a problem. He oftens races up with the pace which will suit this track and with no obvious front runner he may even make it. I’ve seen him in the flesh a couple of times at Lingfield during the last twelve months and thought he looked like he would make a hurdler. Despite the fact that he nearly always runs on the all-weather, the only time he has appeared on turf in the last year was Yarmouth, where he ran as well as he ever has to finish second. There won’t be too many weaker maiden hurdles than this in the calendar, and if he takes to it as expected he should be involved.
The obvious one is Magic Prospect who has run a couple of fair races in a higher grade. Marvo was the best of these on the flat, but has completely lost his way and showed no signs of encouagement on his hurdling debut, albeit in a stronger race. Sheila’s Castle was of similar ability to the selection on the flat, and appeared to translate that ability to hurdles, but she didn’t appear to improve for the change in codes. Bad Sir Brian won a bumper Plumpton at the start of the season, but has looked very uncooperative in three starts since then, and he can’t be supported at present.5:30 – Mister Frosty – 1pt each way at 12/1 or better (I’ve just managed a few pounds on at 50’s on the exchanges, which I can’t quite believe)
Hi Robert / All
Been away for a couple of days catching up with friends and having some bets at Cheltenham. Hope you all had a good punting festival?
Anyway hoping you can help. Will catch up on this and other articles properly over the w/e but on Tuesdays nights posting, in this thread, you indicated Robert you should get paid on Maljimar e/w if you had backed ante post. I thought this was the case and was going to ask for yours / others help re this matter.
Had an e/w L15 nrnb on 10th March with Corals. Included first Leut and Maljimar so has one nice price winner (12/1) and Maljimar (10/1) placed.
Popped in to pick up winnings today and people on counter first tried to settle without either the treble odds for one winner and the place single and doubles on maljimar. I challenged them so they went round the back and rang up head office who amended for one winner but again refused to settle place single or double on malj. Asked them to ring again in front of me which fair play they did and said to person on counter as it was an ante post bet when more than 16 runners were declared then surely I should get paid for 4th place. Person on other end of phone at head office again refused to settle it on this basis and also refused to speak to me as the customer.
At time I was pretty sure that I was right so asked for bet to be given back to me and for details of how to challenge what they were indicating. I now have this
In terms of above, can anyone indicate the specific ante post rule that I can quote when I both phone up Corals head office and when I go back into the shop to collect…the last time I think I will frequent Corals
Sorry to all readers if above is a bit of a rant and hoping members can help me.
yorkiedips
p.s. Also seem to remember other contributors having similar problems around this type of thing previously – Ante post handicap bet when more than 16 runners reducing to less than 16 on day and getting 4th place e/w and bookmaker refusing to settle
Hi Yorkie
Don’t give up on this one……I worked at Ladbrokes Head Office for a nearly 3 years and I imagine Corals work in a similar way.
Basically the in-house system receives the date feed from SIS and the system pays out accordingly, so it all works well for on the day bets.
However as far as Ante Post bets are concerned the terms quite often change throughout the weeks and in Ladbrokes case the system only caters for the last recorded set of terms.
I’m 99% certain that when you placed the bet the terms would have been 1/4 1,2,3,4 and because it was an "ante post bet" they really should be paying you out, but because the system doesn’t deal with it, your then relying on the staff you speak to knowing the rules.
I read of someone on the betfair forum having the same problem with another company, but they have now paid out, and on the punters lounge forum, someone else placed a bet with Corals on Maljimar and like with you they initially didn’t pay out, but I think he placed his bet online and after an e-mail they have paid out apparently.
Having looked on the Coral website, the ante-post shop rules section doesn’t make anything clear.
It’s a shame you didn’t write it on the slip, but I would keep contacting them until they finally do the right thing.
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