- This topic has 212 replies, 21 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 9 months ago by
.
- Posts
A little profit on Wednesday thanks to Romantic Lead. I’m grateful that Addiction went off so short at Folkestone, as she ran a complete stinker and was never going to win from a very early stage. Worryingly for Oliver Sherwood, Little Al also ran deplorably and whilst his had been running ok in previous days, i’d now be a little wary of backing any from the stable until it’s obvious something isn’t affecting all of them.Amore Mio ran much better than of late, and if I’d gone each way, I’d have got my money back. Given another half a furlong he may well have won. Romantic Lead did well to finish a close up third at Bangor, and was doing some good work in the closing stages, and he’ll be interesting in a handicap if he doesn’t go up from his mark of 110.
Not too many fancies on Thursday, but I’ve got a really strong fancy at Wolverhampton at what should be a good price, and a couple at big prices over the jumps, so I’m looking forward to a good day.
Ludlow
The only race i’m interested in is the staying handicap hurdle at 4:30. Not many of these come into the race in much form, but MUNLOCHY BAY ran well enough last time at Warwick and this is an easier opportunity for her. A winner at Cheltenham last season, she hasn’t quite gone on from that, but she ran well in a fair mares’ event at Ascot in November, and last time was encouraging. She did a little too much at the head of affairs, and lasted longer than I thought she would in the circumstances. That was a much stronger event, with a lot of in-form rivals and following a further 2lb drop in the ratings she should be up to winning a race of this nature. There aren’t many obvious front runners in the line-up, so she may get her own way, but she is equally effective being ridden with restraint and however she is ridden she looks like being overpriced on ground that will suit perfectly. Of the others Sawpot Solitaire ran well over shorter here last time, but remains a maiden, and looks very one-paced, whilst Whispering Jack needs to improve again for his effort last time for which he’s been put up 5lb. Talenti is moody at the best of times, and this might be stretching his stamina, a similar comment applies to King Gabriel. Calusa Shadow doesn’t always look that enthusiastic, but should be competitive in a race off this mark. BALLY CONN has shown nothing at all in three starts this year, but he’s tumbled back down the ratings as a result. He has been losing interest very early on after early mistakes, and I hope he is ridden a little more handily this time around. I don’t back him with confidence, but in such a weak event, I think he is also worth a small investment at big odds.
4:30 – Munlochy Bay – 1.5pt each way at 7/1 or better –
TauntonTwo horses of interest at the West Country venue, starting with the 3:50. SOURCHAMP will be a big price in this and is out of the handicap, having been dropped 9lb for his chasing debut, although Wayne Kavanagh negates that a little with his 3lb claim. He had a little modest form in France as a juvenile, but he didn’t show anything in three starts here over hurdles. On the face of it his chasing debut doesn’t look much better, but the statistic of beaten seventy four lengths doesn’t tell the whole story. He raced a little too keen early on, but he showed a liking for jumping, and in the main jumped well, until getting tired. He doesn’t looked short of pace, and had that race been over 2m he would have fared much better. They will hopefully go a gallop in this, which will enable him to settle better, and in such a poor heat, he wouldn’t be without a chance off ten stone. His small stable does well enough with the horses they have, Hazeljack, the winner of the Sussex National being the best. Kirbys Glen finally won last time, but that was over 2m3f, and he appeared to relish the extra distance. He’s often been beaten over this trip, and has a penalty to overcome. Catholic Hill did better last time, but that was a small field in heavy ground, and may have flattered him slightly. Owner Occupier should run well, but is obviously more than beatable, and Coda Agency has been in good form on the flat, but might find things happening too quickly over this trip around here.
FOUNTAINS FLYPAST is a horse with a lot of natural ability and he makes his handicap debut at 4:20. He was a good bumper horse, but has a been a little in and out so far over hurdles. He was particularly disappointing last time, but I’m willing to excuse him that on the basis of the soft/holding ground. He is less exposed than the opposition and is potentially a fair bit better than this current rating of 111 would imply. He looks sure to stay at least this far and at 8’s I think he’s certainly overpriced, despite slight reservations about the jockey. Posh Emily had a tough race at Sandown the other day and will do well to have recovered in time for this. Prince Of Denial keeps hitting the crossbar, although there doesn’t look to be a lot wrong with his attitude, but a rise of 6lb for his second last time would appear harsh, and that will probably stop him from winning this. Laustra Bad would be the one I’d be most worried about, given that he now looks dangerously well handicapped if returning to form.
3:50 – Sourchamp – 0.75pt each way at 22/1 (VC) –
4:20 – Fountains Flypast – 1.5pt each way at 8/1 (Bet365 & VC)
No fancies at Southwell, so off to Wolverhampton.Wolverhampton
BLUE IVY makes her handicap debut in the first at 5:15, and I’ll refer to my Notebook comments.
BLUE IVY A 3 year old filly in training with Chris Fairhurst. She had one run in May of last year as a two year old where after a slow start she showed a little ability in a small maiden at Nottingham. She wasn’t then seen until reappearing at Southwell in a 5f seller. Once again she was slow away, but she’d made up a lot of ground by halfway and then just faltered close home. It was a poor contest, but granted a good start she would have been fighting out the finish, and wasn’t subjected to a hard ride. She did hang a little as she did on her debut, but appeared to handle the Southwell surface well enough. Her most recent effort over 6f on the fibresand was also encouraging in a competitive seller, she raced far too freely, resented the kickback a little but stayed on well considering, when pulled out wide. She has been alloted a mark of 49, just 49!!!! I’m convinced she could win off at least a 5/6lb higher mark, and whether over 5 or 6f I can’t wait for her to run off that mark in a handicap
This is just the sort of race I was hoping she’d appear in. It’s competitive enough to make sure she is a decent price. But there is nothing in the race that makes me think she can’t win. I’ve watched her last two efforts several times, and it’s clear to me she has more ability than a mark of 49 suggests. She clearly has a lot of natural speed, and I hope they get away to a good start and that Kelly Harrison gets her settled mid-div from her draw of 8. She wasn’t noticeably slowing over 6f at Southwell, so I don’t see her lasting home being a problem. Other than what I’ve said, it’s hard to put a finger on exactly what it is that makes me so confident about her. The likes of Pineapple Pete and Bobbyow have speed to burn and a strong pace should suit Blue Ivy well.
Of her rivals Lois Lane is the obvious one after her victory last time in a maiden at Lingfield. Kassaan made all last time at Kempton, but will do will to make all in this with so much early pace to contend with. Ridgeway Hawk is solid at a low level and should run his normal consistent race, and These Dreams will be popular after a seemingly improved performance last time at Lingfield. Whilst she gets in off a mark of 45 here, they all finished bunched up after going no gallop last time, and they is no doubt she was flattered by that.
All in all the more I look at Blue Ivy and the mark she races off in a race like this, the more I like her chances, providing of course she adapts well to the Polytrack.5:15 – Blue Ivy – 2.5pt each way – I think anything upwards of 8/1 would be good, but I’m hoping when the race is priced up in the morning she will be nearer 16’s or even 20’s if i’m very lucky – Generally 16’s but over 20’s on the exchanges
Hi Robert
There are a couple of things that would temper enthusiasm for Blue Ivy. The first is that her sire, Blue Dakota, has yet to produce either a single winner or indeed a horse that has produced a rating to suggest it is capable of winning. Admittedly it’s a relatively small sample. The other thing is the fact that you mention she has hung in her races. In my experience hanging is almost always a result of being in pain and it’s difficult to be confident about a horse which you think might have a physical problem.
That said, I hope she hacks up for you.
Tuffers,
I agree, hanging, especially as she did on her racecourse debut is obviously not a good sign and does usually indicate a physical problem, and she obviously did have a problem as she wasn’t seen again after that. She didn’t appear to hang last time though, so it’s possible she was just running away from the stick, but it’s obviously a worry.
On the Blue Dokota point, sadly he passed away, and has only had a handful of runners. As you say he hasn’t sired a winner, but i’ll put a positive spin on that, by saying that the couple that have run at Wolverhampton have run their best races there on the polytrack when compared to their turf exploits. Were it a maiden and she were making her debut, I would have overlooked her very quickly because of the sire. But it doesn’t put me off having seen her run three times.Robert / Anyone else reading
Just to let you know that 20/1 is avail for Blue Ivy at mo on sportingbet which I’ve just helped myself to as don’t have a betfair account!!
Robert – Sure in another thread somewhere you tipped horse for Cheltenham at big price (33/1 at time I think) in one of the staying chases. Clocked it, had a look at its form and agreed with your thoughts. Once nrnb kicked in I wanted to back it but cant find the thread or remember horses name. Ring any bells? If so could you remind me of name now that B365 and Stan James have gone nrnb
yorkiedips
Yorkie
That would be Cannington Brook in the National Hunt Chase. Beshabar has come into the reckoning recently, but I’m still keen on his chances if he goes for that, good course form, jumps well in the main and he should be an easy ride for an amateur. He is still in the Kim Muir as well, but he might not get into that, and I do hope they go for the NH Chase.
I’m sure that would be the one, only other one I’ve mentioned is Maljimar in the x country who has been laid out for the race (no national entry this year). He was just beaten by Garde Champetre on his only start over the course in December 09 and was given a bit to do that day. He’ll be much better off with that horse now, and the handicapper has been very generous dropping him several pounds since his last start. I think the maximum field for the race is 16 and he’s no.20 on the list. He should just squeak in.Tuffers,
I agree, hanging, especially as she did on her racecourse debut is obviously not a good sign and does usually indicate a physical problem, and she obviously did have a problem as she wasn’t seen again after that. She didn’t appear to hang last time though, so it’s possible she was just running away from the stick, but it’s obviously a worry.
On the Blue Dokota point, sadly he passed away, and has only had a handful of runners. As you say he hasn’t sired a winner, but i’ll put a positive spin on that, by saying that the couple that have run at Wolverhampton have run their best races there on the polytrack when compared to their turf exploits. Were it a maiden and she were making her debut, I would have overlooked her very quickly because of the sire. But it doesn’t put me off having seen her run three times.Robert, you’ve convinced me. I’ve had £3 to win at Betfair SP
Hi Robert
Thanks for reminder re Cannington and tip for Maljimar. Will look out for the latter definitely as wanted to oppose Garde but LAMI never wins and have got fed up of backing S australia!!
Re Blue Ivy, saw it finished mid divison but did you see race? Went onto sportinglife website but full result had no comments around how the race panned out for some reason.
FYI, used your PP selections for southwell for legs 3-6 as starting point for a quadpot. Didnlt disagree and came up so thanks for that too
Keep up the good work. Always enjoy reading your analysis
yorkie
p.s. wandered if you used anything from the tail-end system when you choose some of your bigger priced selections?
Yorkie
No I’ve yet to see the race, usually when attheraces haven’t been able to show the race live, they take a while to get them online. Comments on sporting life now read "Towards rear, took keen hold, ridden over 1f out, never dangerous". I’ll reserve judgement until i’ve had the chance to watch the race.
A bit of a mixed day all in all, Fountains Flypast winning (nice ride by Ms Green) ensured a small profit, Sourchamp was still bang there when he fell at the tricky third last, and I think he would have been second at best, as the winner won well, he was really well backed, shame though as the cat is out the bag for next time. Munlochy Boy never looked happy at any stage really.
Oh no someone is still looking at my placepot picks, damn, I was hoping my embarassment was being spared, although at least i’m starting to get a few returns (2 today, but still a loss!).
I’ve just had to google the tail-end system……i will need to delve deeper to found out exactly how it works.
But no, systems of any description don’t enter my thinking. I suppose I do have favourite things to look out for, horses that may get an easy lead for instance, and I also look out for horses dropping in trip. A horse that has a few starts over 2m4f, but has been weakening and beaten 40/50 lengths and drops back to 2m is I think, more often overlooked than the horse that has been staying on beaten 20 lengths over 2m4f, and then steps up to 3m. I think the positive comment of "ran on well/stayed on final furlong" gets more attention than "weakened rapdily 4f out", understandable I guess.
I’ve just gone back to Maljimar again, dropped 8lb for his run on New Years Day, very very generous. He was still going well when falling at the 22nd in last years national, I think the fact he is being aimed specifically at this race is really significant, from a stable you have to respect. Mind you I’m still having nightmares about Mccoy’s ride on Witchita Lineman to deny Maljimar at the festival 2 years ago.Oh and Tuffers, I’ll buy you a drink at the races sometime to make up for the £3!!!!
Oh and Tuffers, I’ll buy you a drink at the races sometime to make up for the £3!!!!
We all have horses which we think have potential that’s only visible to us. My current one is Pytheas. I’ve got him down as a potentially smart hurdler but I think I’m in a minority of one on that score.
Depends what you mean by smart hurdler Tuffers, I’m sure he could win a little seller in the summer at Stratford (I jest…….Two years ago I convinced myself that Blue Bajan could win a Champion Hurdle, I kept backing him at 200+ on the exchanges!I’ve just watched the Blue Ivy race, and without being too critical i’m not sure she got the greatest ride. She missed the break ever so slightly, but then appeared to be restrained. She did pull hard, but rather than get in behind horses she was taken wide. She didn’t handle the bend brilliantly (she was pushed wide which didn’t help) and then ran on at the same pace up the straight. She was still pulling when others were being pushed along, so whilst she’s obviously not the easiest to handle, she has plenty of pace. Maybe I’m just seeing things that aren’t there, but if she is ridden more positively, over 5f, at Southwell perhaps (straight track) then I still think she has a race in her, and would give her another chance, she might be a bigger price next time now!!
Fountains Flypast is a nice young horse, and as long as the handicapper doesn’t penalise him too badly (6/7lb would be fair in my opinion) he can go in again. Unfortanately the cat is out of the bag now with Sourchamp and I doubt he’ll be a 33’s chance in a race like that next time out.
As soon as I saw that Friday’s jump racing comes from Newbury & Doncaster I knew I wouldn’t be getting too involved. Some interesting racing, but the better quality and number of runners from the bigger yards (Newbury in particular) together with the slightly smaller fields don’t really play to my strengths. As a consequence no bets at Newbury, although I might be tempted into a small bet on Zacharova if he jumps off ok and manages to run the first 2 furlongs without needing any encouragement! The strong pace likely to be set by Babe Heffron should suit him, he’s a horse who may well hit big prices in running at halfway but he can suddenly spark into action and stays much further, I could see him running down most of the field in the straight, but he’s got to start first!
Doncaster
Normally when I see a claiming hurdle on the card I see something I want to back, thats not the case with the 2:45 though, which looks an extremely tricky little affair. Tayarat goes without the tongue tie on his first start for Michael Chapman, and he may not get quite such an easy lead this time around. First Avenue had a hard race on heavy ground a week ago, and isn’t one to be taking too short a price about. Kings Counsel is the most solid option, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see an improvement from I Got Music in first time blinkers, and she would have a squeak judged by her run at Ayr behind First Fandango, if there were 8 runners i might have been tempted to back her each way, but with Lady Willa already out, I’ll leave the race alone.
Onto two races where I do have selections, the first is the Mares’ Handicap Hurdle at 4:30. The favourite at the time of writing is the Alan King trained Balerina. She backed up a solid effort in a juvenile event at Huntingdon by winning on her handicap debut at Kempton three weeks ago. The principles in the betting that day all disappointed (although why According was 2/1 I don’t know) and it wasn’t a great race by that tracks standards. She is now 10lb higher, which is will be a tough ask, and I wonder whether this race will be run to suit, as she shapes as if she’s more of a stayer and there may not be an awful lot of pace on early here. Veiled I was impressed with when she won on her hurdling debut, and I even thought she might end up being a lively outsider for last years Triumph, but she was then disappointing at Newbury and wasn’t seen again. Her two efforts on the flat in August/September last year were poor, which is obviously a worry. I think she’s currently a false price, purely because she is now in the care of Nicky Henderson. The ground will suit her, but again like Balerina, she is more a stayer (2m winner on the flat) and I’m not interested at odds of around 3/1. Dream Esteem has been in good form this season, and I see him running well without winning as he probably needs to drop a few pounds first.
I like CROSBY JEMMA & DREAM RISK. The former ran well at Catterick recently off this mark and she is rather flexible tactically. The good ground here is just what she needs and whether they dawdle or go a good gallop she shouldn’t be inconvenienced. Dream Risk was coming back after a break on soft ground last time, and therefore it was no surprise to see her run poorly. She should be all the better for that, and she really does need this better ground. She is still fairly unexposed over hurdles, and was competitive when a close up fifth off a 3lb higher mark at Wetherby in October.The 5:05 is an interesting Handicap Chase over 2m3f. I’ll quickly go through a few of these, starting with the top weight Carrietau. Although his winning form is at 2m, there is no doubt he stays this far. However he has never won off a mark this high and has run badly on his two recent starts. Qianshan Leader is a nice looking individual and he won well when last seen over 2m at Taunton. It was a bunch finish that day, but this trip will probably suit him even more, and I rate him a big threat. Prince Des Marais will appreciate this ground and ran much better last time, however I think he is better off at the minimum trip and he is still rather high in the handicap. Cranky Corner, to my surprise won last time at Sedgefield. Until then he was rather like a horse with a problem, and that race ended up being a bit of a sprint over 2m. Whether he’ll last home in a fastly run 2m3f is a totally different matter (i know he won over 2m4f in Ireland, but he’s nowhere near the same horse at the moment) and I’m still not convinced by him. Enfant De Lune is another with possible stamina limitations, and I thought he should have won last time at Fakenham. Columbus Secret is an interesting runner having caused a 66/1 surprise earlier in the season. He ran well in a similar contest last time at Catterick off this mark and should go well again. Yetholm isn’t a horse I like particularly, I’ve never been convinced by his attitude as he’s far too in and out to warrant support on this chasing debut.
So that leaves KEALSHORE BOY, and it’s not often I come down on the side of a Howard Johnson horse. His three starts last season were over hurdles, and he has only had three starts over fences. The first was a winning one at Newcastle, that day he beat Silver By Nature and Lease Lend in a novice chase. He was subsequently pitched in at the deep end at Cheltenham and Ascot and he found the company a bit hot. His jumping did also let him down, although it was a case of one bad error, as in the main it was fine. He won his first two bumpers and was also a fair novice over hurdles, and obviously has a fair amount of natural ability. The most interesting point about him is that he has won on his seasonal debut in three of his four seasons to date. The trip is fine, the ground will suit and he looks fairly handicapped, so all in all I think with doubts surrounding the majority of his opponents he is worth supporting.4:30 – Crosby Jemma – 1pt each way at 9/1 (various) –
5:05 – Kealshore Boy – 0.75pt each way at 13/2 (various)
WolverhamptonAs per usual I can’t find anything I wish to back at Lingfield, but there is one race i’m interested in at Wolverhampton. The second division of the staying handicap at 6:15 looks the weaker of the two, and TROJAN GIFT looks an interesting contender. The yards horses (who I think do well with limited resources) do tend to improve with racing, and this one ran his best race when up to 1m6f when last seen at Redcar where he finished fourth behind the progressive Dubara Reef. He was staying on that day and this trip certainly looks to be within his compass. He is bred to go on the sand, and if he’s ready to go after his break, i’d hope he would be very competitive in such a weak affair. I’m thankful that Bold Adventure has been taken out, as he would have been a bit of an imponderable (C&D specialist, but out of form of late, from a gambling yard). Early indications are that Santera may well go off favourite, thats after she was a bit disappointing on Wednesday. She was running on at the line and I wouldn’t be too quick to rule her out, but this may well come a bit quickly, and the fact has to be faced that she is clearly just an awful lot better over hurdles. Frameit has been a busy boy of late, but appears to have just gone slightly off the boil. What a shame that A Daly is no longer riding, it would have been a giggle to see him on board Minder. The Portman inmate is a frustrating sort, but he is at least in fair form at present and he should run his race again and be thereabouts.
It’s good to see Mr Beuzelin back after his bad accident, he still claims 3lb and that will be useful for INCHANDO. If this doesn’t come too soon after his recent Kempton reappearance then he could cause a bit of a surprise. I thought there was a fair bit of encouragement to be taken from that run over 1m2f which is clearly inadequate. I know he is a seven year old maiden, but he’s only had a handful of flat starts in this country, and rather strangely he is still an entire! This trip will obviously suit him better (he was second over 1m4f and 2m2f at Chepstow last season) but he’s not as slow as some in this line-up, so he won’t be as inconvenienced by a slow gallop as some, should it arise (looks a possibility).6:15 – Trojan Gift – 2pt win at 5/1 or better – Santera is now out, Trojan Gift is 9/2 which I think is more than fair
Inchando – 0.75pt each way at 10/1 or better – He is 10’s, hopefully all eight will run
Kealshore Boy ran well on Friday to finish second, but it’s fair to say the other two races didn’t go to plan, although I did lay Veiled who was just far too short.
Four jumps meetings on Saturday, and a lot of competitive handicaps. The overall quality is perhaps a little down on the usual standard for a Saturday, but that isn’t unusual with Cheltenham around the corner.
A few races to get through, so i’ll try and keep the comments a little shorter.
Newbury
1:55
The first is a competitive looking handicap hurdle, and they’re a handful of likely front runners in opposition. The strong gallop should suit ARCTIC WINGS who looks a massive price at 20’s. Two of his three hurdling victories have been at this track, including one at this meeting last year. His other victory was at Doncaster, and given that he has also run well twice at Aintree, a flat left handed layout clearly brings out the best in him. He was tried over fences in January at Catterick, and jumped well, but they didn’t go much of a gallop that day, and he was just a bit fresh and ruined his chance early on. He has been competitive off this sort of mark in the past, and with the track, trip and ground to suit, at a time of year he seems to come to life, he is the selection.
I greatly respect Sherwani Wolf after his victory last time, and Benbane Head has to be considered with the stable now in great form. Credit Crunched will find this a lot tougher than the novice company he’s been keeping, as will Not Til Monday, although the latter looks on a fair mark.I love the veterans chases, I think they have been a great addition in recent years, but this one is mighty competitive and makes no appeal as a betting medium. Cane Break is an interesting runner over from Ireland, I remember backing him when he finished 5th in the Gold Cup in 2007!
3:00
The big handicap chase of the day, the Greatwood. I have donated to them in the past, along with Carrie Humbles sanctuary up north. I’m sure they are struggling even more than they usually do in the current climate, and without preaching, I think it would be a nice touch if you won a few quid on the race to make a small donation to them, or maybe old Deanos Beano or the good old sprinter Montendre who they look after did you a good turn in the past, anyway the website is http://www.racehorsesgreatwood.org
Onto the race itself which Big Fella Thanks won last year. He’s not a horse I’ve ever been a big fan of, I can never seem to work him out! A few of these would appear to need further, I’ve already read a few people suggesting Niche Market has a good each way chance. Personally I’d be fairly amazed if he has the pace win this, as much as I’m fond of the horse. I think the same thing applies to Maktu, whilst I’m not sure how well handicapped Tail Of The Bank is,as his small field novice form probably flatters him a touch.
The one I keep coming back to is MATUHI, who ran very well on his first two starts for the Pipe yard before disappointing at Cheltenham. He had previously run poorly there before, and he looks best on a flat track. He ran well over 2m1f here behind Angle D’or who just had too much pace for him, and this trip looks ideal. His jumping is usual good, and I’d expect him to lie fairly handy in a race that should be run at a fair clip with the likes of Pret A Thou and Swing Bill in the line-up. Matuhi is still relatively unexposed over fences, and given that we know he goes well fresh, he should have no excuses here.Bally Legend did me a favour at Ludlow recently and he should go well in the 3:35, but is now racing off a 12lb higher mark. Karky Schultz & Via Galllei were first and second at Taunton last month, but they both still appear to be fairly handicapper (not forgetting the latter was a listed class horse on the flat) and I expect them both to be involved in the finish, but as I can’t see any real value in either of them, i’m happy to leave the race alone.
3:35
The first lay of the day and that is RANGITOTO. He’s an irish point winner who finished second to Doctor Foxtrot at Ffos Las. A lot will be made of the fact that the third Jump Up, who was beaten a fair way has come out and won since, but I’d put more emphasis on the fact that Doctor Foxtrot has since been soundly beaten off a mark of 118. That aside, I didn’t think he looked all that keen on a battle that day, that may a little harsh based on the one run, but i’m just calling it as I saw it. I’m sure most people would argue that as a point winner he’ll improve for the step up to three miles. But a lot of those points are often run at a slow gallop, and quite often the winners of those races end up being better over shorter trips. He certainly didn’t look like a 3m plodder at Ffos Las and I wonder just how much difference the trip will make. I feel that in State Benefit, Double Whammy and Ravastree I have enough running for me to warrant a lay. Camden is a likeable mare, but she had a very tough race on her penultimate start at Fakenham, and that may leave it’s mark for a while.
4:45
Onto one of my bets of the day, although Timeform and the Racing Post would seemingly firmly disagree with me, but then again that can often be a good thing! SPECIAL OCCASION has had just the two starts over fences, firstly in a muddling little four runner event at Leicester where he jumped well and then last time at Taunton, where he also jumped well, but he looked slightly unthusiastic once he got a fair way behind. He was never really in the race that day, but from the last down the far side he didn’t lose any more ground on the leaders. He has top weight in this, but he is actually fairly treated on his hurdles form. The Keevil yard is absolutely flying with the last three runners all winning and Tom O’Brien taking over from Ian Popham can be seen as a positive.
Of the others the consistent Kack Handed is feared most, and Lordsbridge should run his race as usual. Cottage Acre is clearly more of a chaser than hurdler, but he might just find this a little tough on his introduction.1:55 – Arctic Wings – 0.75pt each way at 20’s (Betfred & VC) – Anything over 14’s is value
3:00 – Matuhi – 1.5pt each way at 10’s (Various) – I wouldn’t accept less than 8’s
4:45 – Special Occasion – 1.5pt each way at 9/1 or better (no prices until morning, expecting double figures)Doncaster
I’ll have to crack on a bit, Newbury took longer than expected.
2:10
FIVE STAR WILSHAM has been so very consistent in his career so far, including the last twice off this mark. In the main he has been running on soft ground, and there is no doubt he handles it well. However his only career success to date was obtained on good ground at Chepstow (good ground at Chepstow, not often you say that). Like his sire (Bob’s Return) he has a lovely action, and there could well be some improvement in him now returned to a sound surface.
It’s a competitive race, but thats why I’m getting a good price on the selection. I got Premier Des Marais wrong last time, but this is a far better race, and I’m surprised to see him as favourite.2:40
JACQUES VERT disappointed me ever so slightly at Catterick last time but despite the numbers this looks a little less competitive, and I’ll give him another chance to get off the mark. He wasn’t beaten far last time, but I did expect him to run on better from the last. His penultimate start at Ayr was most encouraging in a race in which it paid to race handily. A well run 2m on good ground should be right up his street, and he should be thereabouts. Nouailhas won well last time and is respected most, despite the sharp rise in the weights.
3:15
Killyglen is a horse I’ve been considering backing for the National, and I’d like to see him go well here. But I just can’t get away from OGEE, for whom everything looks right. He’s won at Aintree and Southwell, two flat left handed tracks. He ran well at the festival off a 2lb lower mark, he goes well fresh and loves good ground. He’s one of the least exposed in the line-up, and it’s really hard to see why he won’t run a good race in this. Beat The Boys is quirky but capable, and I’d fear him along with Presenting Forever, but I think Always Right will find this too tough.
5:35
A really good 2m handicap chase to finish the card, and this looks likely to be run at a furious gallop. SILK DRUM is still only six, and has the potential to be just a little better than this grade. He unseated at the last at Warwick last time when looking held, but he should be better for that, and despite that blip he is a good jumper. He has a good cruising speed on this sounder surface, and he should get a good tow in the race.
Several of these may sulk if they can’t get there own way, and some just looked handicapped to their best at present. If Rivaliste puts in a good round for a change, he would be a big danger.2:10 – Five Star Wilsham – 2pts each way at 10/1 (B365, Stan James) 8’s and above would be acceptable
2:40 – Jacques Vert – 0.75pt each way at 8/1 or better (no prices until the morning)
3:15 – Ogee – 2pt win at 7/1 (B365 & Betfred) 13/2’s would be fine
5:35 – Silk Drum – 2pt win at 11/2 or better (no prices until morning)Kempton
2:50
Just a three runner novice chase, but I don’t think you can back Be There In Five after two woeful efforts this term, including last time, and Squadron should get outpaced by ALDERLUCK. Nick Giffords horse won on heavy ground at Plumpton last time, but he has winning form on a sound surface over hurdles here, and this ground will probably suit him better. Even if he makes the running I don’t imagine they will go much of a gallop in this, and he should have too much toe for Squadron, who is at his best in strongly run affairs.
3:25
WYCK HILL was disappointing at Sandown last time, but i’ll forgive them that one bad run under an inexperienced pilot, and this good looking horse looks capable of taking a race of this nature off 106. He had some fair bumper form and started the season well over hurdles here over 2m5f in a novice. He ran well at Warwick over 3m1f after pulling too hard early on and he also put in a solid effort at Ascot on his handicap debut. I’m sure his future is over fences, but he may get the chance to dominate in this and the good ground suits him well.
Charming Lad is a nice type, but he is probably a few pounds too high, and Way Back When who is very consistent is feared most.4:00
Just five line up in the 4:00 and Playing With Fire attempts to win her second race in a week. She is unlikely to get her own here though with Lord Singer in the field. The latter appears to be better going left handed and also looks a shade high in the handicap. Trooper Clarence disappointed me recently at Ludlow and Quinola Des Obeaux has a lot to prove at the moment. That leaves ARCTIC BEN who jumped poorly on this chasing debut, but he’s got better since. A strongly run 2 miles on good ground is probably his ideal set-up as he is inclined to be a bit keen, and he didn’t get home over 2m5f last time. He’s dropped a couple of pound for that, and he’s a strong fancy for this.
2:50 – Alderluck – 4pt win at 11/8 or better (no prices)
3:25 – Wyck Hill – 1.5pt each way at 13/2 or better (no prices)
4:00 – Arctic Ben – 3pt win at 10/3 or better (no prices)Kelso
2:30
I think Nine Stories is the most likely winner of this, but I don’t want to be taking too short a price about anything in this. I want to lay Wind Shuffle, who is an admirable type, but I think his official mark flatters him at present, and the long run in from the last may well find him out. Hazeldene has a bit to find, but should run his race, but I don’t think Alfie Flits is enjoying his racing at the moment and he would be first off my list. SIGNALMAN wasn’t far behind these on hurdle ratings, and he may be worth a speculative interest on his comeback, now switched to fences from a yard that can ready one after a layoff.
4:15
For me this is just about the most fascinating race of the day, and a few of these would appear to have a good future ahead of them. Storm Brig will be favourite, and I’ve been impressed with his attitude for his two wins this season. Like all these, this represents the most competitive race of his career to date, and I’m willing to take him on at shortish odds. Wyse Hill Teabags looks to have more scope than some of these, but he will do will to concede upwards of 3lbs, and whereever he finishes Moon Indigo should be upsides. Priceless Art has already won his fair share, but like a lot of the Swinbank horses, he doesn’t look like one who will progress much more after his initial outings. Desert Cry was impressive last time, but I don’t think the other two with form run their races that day and he may well have to improve on that. BOLD SIR BRIAN should be a fairly big price in this, but I was taken with him in bumpers last season and he ran well enough on his hurdling debut at Wetherby. He was a bit buzzy early on that day, but there should be enough pace on here to allow him to settle. The extra 2f should suit him well, and whilst he has a bit to find on form with some of these, I’m sure we haven’t seen anywhere near the best of him yet, the yard are also in better form than they were when he last run!
2:30 – Signalman – 1pt win at 10/1 or better
4:15 – Bold Sir Brian – 0.75pt each way at 12/1 or better (only one firm priced up at present at 11’s)Great post, very thorough! best of luck..
My bet of the day would be Desert Cry in the 4.15 at Kelso – I think it might improve quite a lot today, was quite impressed last time. I did promise myself not to get too stuck into these sorts of races but 11/4 is very tempting!
I understand what you say about Big Fella Thanks but I am backing at 9/1 – It seems well treated on last years win. A lot of them won’t appreciate this sharp examination but I think he has enough turn of pace to go well.
Have a good one.
Thanks for the comments TDL!Around a 30pt profit on Saturday, which was nice. Five Star Wilsham was very well backed from a best price of 10’s, there was plenty of 8’s/9’s in the morning, he opened up at 6’s and was still backed into 9/2. He won very nicely, and is one of the most likeable types around. As I said he hasn’t really run a bad race so far (I’m glad I didn’t jinx him) and he should make up into a useful handicap chaser in the next few seasons.
Bold Sir Brian was the other star for me and he could well be a bit of a star in the making. He opened up at 22’s and returned at 20’s (I’m glad I didn’t take Paddy’s offer of 11’s last night!!). Storm Brig failed to fire, but take nothing away from Lucinda Russells gelding, he did the jump in very pleasing fashion. Knockara Beau won the race a couple of seasons ago, and he could be just as good based on today’s run.
Arctic Wings put in a gutsy effort in the opener at Newbury and went down fighting in second, that got the day off to a good start. Jacques Verts was very heavily backed before the off at Doncaster, he was 8’s a couple of hours before the race, then money starting coming for him, and he was backed all the way down to 7/2!!! He cruised into the lead turning in as the pacesetter come back to them, he then began to fade out of contention halfway up the straight before running on again to hold third. I don’t think he’s straightforward, but he has the ability to win races, although I think he will need to be held onto for longer next time. Wyck Hill also finished third at Kempton, although I can’t say I was too impressed with the ride. He’s clearly a thorough stayer, so riding him out the back for two thirds of the contest seemed a strange move. I’m not saying he would have won by any means, but he’s better than that. I think it’s important to remember sometimes than most of the time the jockey is under instructions from connections, so I should possibly be moaning about the owner or trainer rather than Rodi Greene, who I’m actually a fan of.
Signalman ran very well on his comeback, but he couldn’t quite reel in Nine Stories. Arctic Ben fell at the last on the far side when still in contention at Kempton, and as I rather suspected Lord Singer ran poorly as Trooper Clarence cruised through to win. Alderluck’s jumping rather went to pieces earlier on the card, and I now wish I had laid Squadron rather than backed him, as Be There In Five proved me wrong.
Ogee was hampered when two came down in the Grimthorpe five out, he lost a few lengths, and it certainly didn’t help, but he was well beaten in the end, although he didn’t run terribly. Part of me was cheering Lothian Falcon on, although had he won I would have been a little upset with myself having backed him on his previous run, again at a big price. Silk Drum travelled well, as he normally does, but he found little and faded over the last couple of fences. He was my second biggest disappointment of the day behind Special Occasion, who put in a very mullish effort at Newbury. I knew beforehand that he wasn’t the most genuine in the world, but that was by far the worst he’s been. Once all the fences had been jumped and they were heading for the line (and the stables) he flew home and almost collected third. He’s got a fair amount of ability, but a lot of attitude too. Having said that, he could well end up being a silly price next time now, and I just wonder if he might cause a surprise somewhere off a low weight……..I’ll only back him again in the near future at a big price in a big field though, if he turned up in a match with Kinkeel I’m not sure I’d be that keen on taking even money, he’s not that sort of horse! Matuhi looked almost certain to get at least a place halfway up the straight, but he just faded late on, and finished sixth, although still only beaten a few lengths, bloody Pricewise put the curse on that one!
The lays of Rangitoto and Wind Shuffle also helped the day along. Although I was almost put off laying the former, as I was guilty of reading a few threads/thoughts of various people who wouldn’t hear of defeat! I couldn’t understand how nobody had appeared to spot his slight awkwardness last time, but it was certainly spotted this time, one to avoid for now I think.
I learned absolutely nothing new really, I’m better at backing horses at bigger prices than the shorter ones!!!
On a sad note it was horrible to see Eric’s Charm shatter a leg at Newbury. It’s always a shame when a horse loses it’s life, and it’s always that bit more upsetting when it’s an old warrior like him. Karky Schultz also died on the Newbury card after taking a horrific fall, the only good thing was he was obviously dead within seconds. I always thought he was a bit of a monkey early in his career, but he certainly wasn’t lately. It did put a dampener on the day, and condolences to everyone involved with both of them.
On a more positive note it was great to see the 14 year old Polar Gunner win at Kelso, I almost got confused when I was going through the cards, and thought he was running at Doncaster, I was going to select him until I realised the race was at Kelso, which put me off!!!Sunday’s action is from Huntingdon and Sedgefield
HUNTINGDON
2:10
I’ve debated long and hard about the first race, and I’ve decided there are too many imponderables to have a bet. But I will just run through my thoughts, as it’s an interesting affair, albeit a modest one. First In The Queue had ran a strange race on this hurdling debut, he was seemingly outpaced, before running on, and would probably have been second before being brought down at the last. I say strange because he was a miler on the flat. He looks like going off plenty short enough, but it’s such a modest race I’m not sure I really want to lay him. Robin De Creuse has ability as his rating of 122 suggests (although he’d struggle to win a handicap off that) but he looks very one paced, and his Cheltenham second hasn’t worked out. Personally I think he needs further and I wouldn’t fancy backing him at 3’s or thereabouts. Fontano is likely to be next in the betting, but I didn’t like the way he stopped quickly last time at Ascot, and I’d wanna see him run again before backing him. Morgan’s Bay will attract his supporters now his yard is flying, and on his Aintree debut in a bumper he’d have a fair chance in this.
Mick’s Dancer made his debut here, and he wasn’t given a hard time at all, last time at Taunton he wasn’t put in the race, and I’m sorry to have to say it, but he clearly wasn’t trying properly. I’m sure he will have another fairly quiet run here to get that all important handicap mark! Unless they think this is so weak they might be able to nick it, he was at least the equal of First In The Queue on the flat. Archie Rice showed a bit on his hurdling debut, but he’ll probably be one for handicaps later as well, as will Second Brook who connections got into hot water with here on his hurdling debut, and he had another quiet run last time too. Kingaroo was a Southwell specialist on the flat, and i’ll be surprised if he is up to taking this. Rye Rocket struck me as being a nice type when I saw him run at Hereford a fortnight ago. He was beaten 50+ lengths on his comeback after a couple of years, and he was very modest on the flat. I thought he run like a horse who very much needed it, but he hurdled nicely, and his best flat run was on quick ground, so the heavy wasn’t probably against him. I might have a token couple of pounds on if he is 300’s or so on the exchanges. I’ll certainly be keeping an eye on him with a small handicap in mind later on. Richard Lee gets a win out of most of the invalids he inherits at some stage.2:40
Sorry to bore you with that, onto the next and a small interest in this one. Another sixteen runner maiden hurdle, this time over 2m4f, probably another Henderson trained favourite, and again not much strength in depth. Sizing Ireland has some average bumper form, including an 8th at Punchestown, but that race wasn’t as strong as the prize money would suggest. He has looked one paced at the end of his races and this step up in trip should suit him, but again he appeals as a bet at a shortish price. Loch Ba has shown ability on all three starts, and he needs this to qualify for a handicap mark. Thats not to say for a moment that he won’t be trying his best, and he should be thereabouts. Airmen’s Friend showed more last time at Folkestone in testing ground, but that run would put a rating of around 100 on him and even though this is a weak maiden, that probably isn’t good enough to collect, so he’ll need to improve further. Baan seems like he has been around an eternity, but he’s only 8, and has made a late switch to hurdling. If he reproduces his Ludlow effort he looks sure to be involved, but a note of caution would be that he wasn’t prolific on the flat, and is more likely to be placed than actually win.
I’m going to risk two at bigger prices, firstly LOMBARDY BOY from the stable of Clerk’s Choice. Two of his four starts have been at Southwell on the fibresand, one of which he won (bumper). He didn’t get involved at all on his hurdling debut at Market Rasen last time, and was beaten 26 lengths. He shaped like a real stayer in his bumpers and If they make a bit more use of him here, I can see him running a big race. The other one is ANOTHER DIMENSION who not for the first time, caught my eye when last seen at Kempton. He has only had four outings to date, the first in a bumper at Kempton, where he ran a good price, not beaten far and shaped like a stayer. His penultimate run at Taunton also offered encouragement, as did his hurdling debut last time, even though he was beaten 46 lengths in 8th. He did too much too soon that day, and having travelled well against some better opponents than he faces here, he weakened quickly and wasn’t given a hard time when the game was up. I just get the feeling with him that he’ll be better next season, but I’m in no doubt that he has a lot more raw ability than most of those shorter in the market, and I can’t resist a small bet at big odds. I’d like to see him ridden with a bit more restraint, and finishing off his race better than he did at Kempton.3:10
I’m convinced Chicklemix won’t get this trip at the moment (Timeform say she wants it…..), I think she’s a likeable type and she’ll win races, but she is still a bit on the weak side at present, and I can’t have her over 2m5f, therefore I wouldn’t put anyone off laying her in running as she may well hit 2’s or thereabouts at some point. Cloudy Spirit performed with great credit in a competitive mares event at Ludlow on her most recent start, and she should give a good account, as should Be My Light, although this is better race than the won she won here two starts ago. Emperior Charlie looks paceless of 2m4f, but doesn’t appear to get home over 3m, so this sort of trip might be just right, but the overall balance of her form suggests she might be a few pounds too high in the handicap. Lyster is a good old stick, but he would prefer further, and is likely to be plugging on at the finish, but it may be too late by then. I’ve said it before, but what exactly does Charlie Egerton do with his horses? They appear to average about 2 runs a season throughout their careers with him, the amount of times you see a horse coming back off another long absence from that yard is amazing, and it has to be said his yard is nothing like the force it used to be. Anyway his runner Very Edgy finished a long way behind my selection APACHE CHANT at Market Rasen and I don’t see the form being reversed at the revised weights. Apache Chant finally broke his maiden tag that day, and he had been frustrating until that point. I think he got a bit bogged down last time at Leicester, and good to soft around here will suit him much better. He ran well on his one visit to this track last season when second, and although he is 5lb higher for his win, he has been competitive off higher marks in the past, and I’m sure he is capable of winning again in a race like this. The cheekpieces are back on, Lee Edwards gets on well with him, the yard had a big price winner on Saturday and he looks a good each way bet.
3:40
COSTA COURTA was harshly treated by the handicapper for winning a mickey mouse four runner beginners chase at Bangor last season, and as events have since proved, the handicapper got it wrong, as Viking Rebel the horse he beat, hasn’t achieved much subsequently. Chalire Morlock’s gelding has run poorly on his two starts this season, and will obviously need to leave those efforts well behind. However they’re reasons to be positive, he ran well to be second at this venue last season, and was also going well when coming down three out on another occasion. The handicapper has given him a sniff of a chance having dropped him 8lb and this time of year has brought the best out of him in the past. He’s been priced up as the rag of the field, but that doesn’t truly reflect his chance, and if he finds his form from last season he should be thereabouts.
Of the others, Ballyvesey deserves to get his head in front, but this course doesn’t strike be as being ideal for one that races lazily a lot of the time. Victoria’s Groom has been out of sorts lately, but she’s tumbled down the handicap as a result, and if the ground is soft enough for her, she could be a threat, as could Western Whiskey who is in fair form at present.The next looks best left to Qalinas, although at a shade of odds-on at the time of writing, he can run without my money, and Ubi Ace could make a race of it.
Back Bob Back muddies the waters in the 4:40 as the former pointer shuld improve for fences and with the yard now flying he may take some stopping. Aside from him it’s a very tricky race to try and sort out, and frankly I’ve given up, no bet!
I shall watch the bumper with interest without investing.
2:40 – Lombardy Boy – 1pt each way at 14/1 or better –
3:10 – Apache Chant – 2pt each way at 7/1 (VC,Hills)-
3:40 – Costa Courta – 0.75pt each way at 16/1 (various) –
SEDGEFIELDThis will be very brief and I only want to get involved in the last race. Earlier on the card Teenando and Troodos Jet will probably win as I backed them in similar races at the last meeting and both were slightly disappointing. The runners in both races are often taking each other on, and it’s hard to find anything to feel confident about. The staying handicap hurdle is similar in the sense that the likes of Oniz Tiptoes is a regular over C&D, I do like the look of Mauricetheathlete, but then I saw he was priced up at 11/2, and I’d want 10’s, so I’ll leave that one alone.
4:50
The last is a low-grade but competitive handicap hurdle over 2m4f. Seaf Cliff and Classic Henri finished first and second in a similar event here recently, and are sure to be popular, but although the latter has since run well again, they both look very beatable. Sharadiyn has gone well here in the past, and shaped encouragingly last time, he’s another that is likely to be towards the head of the market, but he looks handicapped about right at present. Yes Mate showed more last time, but looks very one paced, although the Sayer team had a big price winner here recently. Some Catch was heavily gambled on last time at Wetherby, but whilst she easily bettered anything she had previously achieved, connections may have missed a trick there as she is clearly very modest, I am worried about here lurking at the bottom of the weights though (I wouldn’t take much notice of her being out the handicap). Red Tanber has shown a couple of glimmers of light, but was again poor last time.
JUST POSH has a win, a second and a third to her name, and all of those results have been achieved at this track. She hasn’t run here for over two years, and she is now back down on a mark off which she ought to be competitive. She caused a big upset when winning a novice event when only rated 76, and the handicapper put her up a whopping 29lb for that. She has taken an awful long time to come back down, but after a poor effort last time, she has been dropped another 7lb back down to 75. She may have needed that coming off a three month break, and her previous outing at Kelso suggested she still retains enough ability to win off this sort of mark. I’m probably mad but I’m also going to have a small bet on PATRIXTOO. He is a ten year old maiden under both codes, and has been plagued by injury. He come back from injury after three years off last season, and had three runs and on each occasion I felt there was a little more there. Tim Fitzgerald has so few horses these day’s it’s hard to tell what form they’re in, but Mr Syntax did at least win at Wetherby recently. Off a mark of 71 over a trip that would suit if he’s ready after another year out, I can’t resist having a little on at a big price, as he has suggested to me last season with the way he travelled, that it may not be too late for him to pick up a small event.4:50 – Just Posh – 1pt each way at 14/1 or better – 16’s in a few places
Patrixtoo – 0.5pt each way at 28/1 or better – He opened up at 25’s this morning, but has been slashed all the way down to 10’s!
Well the last few days have obviously gone very nicely and if you missed it Another Dimension did the business today for me at 66/1!!! (betfair sp 130/1). After Bold Sir Brian obliged at 20’s on Saturday, along with Five Star Wilsham at 10’s, it’s been a good weekend. I’ll might now get around to adding up my total profit/loss so far on the thread, now I’m certain it’s in profit!!Three meetings on Monday, and just one bet at each.
NEWTON ABBOT
I can’t believe there isn’t either a seller or claimer on the card, what a disappointment! It’s a not a card that makes too much appeal from a punting perspective, smallish fields, with a few short priced favourites, the one race I want to concentrate on is the 4:15.
4:15
DEVON NATIVE has been priced as the outsider of the party, which I think is well off the mark, I was expecting to see her around 10’s and yet she is double that price. She has only won the one race in her fourteen start career to date, but has been placed in 50% of her outings and for the most part she very consistent. She started this season with an excellent effort at Ascot in a competitve mares’ handicap off a 1lb lower mark than she races off here. She followed that up with another good effort at Taunton off a higher mark. A poorer run at Wincanton followed although she was still only beaten sixteen lengths in a race run at no gallop, which wouldn’t have suited. Last time at Leicester was no more than an average effort, but the ground on both her last two starts would have been too soft for her. Good to Soft at this venue will be much more to her liking, and she is now back down to a mark off which she should be very competitive off. Her capable conditional takes off the usual 7lb and if the first time tongue tie has another sort of benefit, she would be even more of a threat. I really can’t see why she is the price she is currently, as she looks sure to run a decent race.
Round The Horn is a warm order to complete his hat-trick, but this is a good bit deal tougher than the race he hacked up in at Towcester last time. He’s obviously the one they all have to beat, but this is his fourth start in a month and the slighter better ground probably won’t be in his favour. Abstract Art won a very soft claimer at Ludlow last time and he doesn’t look very well treated back in handicap company. Timetoring might prove to be a bit of sitting duck if making the running, but he obviously has his chances having showed more last time, whilst Rith Bob is an admirable mare, who should give her running. I can’t understand why Emergency Exit is shorter than most in the betting, other than the fact he comes from the biggest yard! The fact that he is 8’s and Devon Native is available at 25’s is plain silly.4:15 – Devon Native – 1pt each way at 25’s (PP, 20’s elsewhere) –
FFOS LASAgain just the one race of interest on the card, the 4:00
4:00
You have to be very quick off the mark sometimes, and whilst I’ve missed the 20’s that was available, 16’s still looks very reasonable on TROUBLETIMESTWO. He was a fair juvenile hurdler last season, but like many of his type, he has struggled so far in his second season. His first effort this season at Chepstow behind Escortmen wasn’t actually too bad, but he then fell at Sandown and ran a lifeless race at Exeter afterwards. His run at Towcester suggested all wasn’t lost as although he was beaten thirty lengths by the winner, he wasn’t far off the placings that day, and was plugging on well enough up the hill on soft ground. He reverted back to running poorly again last time at Taunton, and appeared to lose interest after halfway. He is now a stone lower than when he started the season, although only 3lb lower than last time. I’m pinning hopes of a revival on the fact that he now steps up to 2m4f which should allow him to keep up easier and he has often shaped as if he will stay this sort of trip. He looks to have lost a bit of confidence after that fall, and hopefully a few weeks off and a smaller field will allow him to show a little more interest. A lot of these would probably be better over further and if he does recapture some of his form he may well have a bit too much pace for a lot of them come the end of the race.
Sparrow Hills won a competitive affair at Wincanton last time and is greatly respected, as is Alesandro Mantegna, who would be dangerous if allowed an easy lead. Zakatal is vying for favouratism, but why he’s more likely to win this than any of the races he has been getting placed in I really don’t know.4:00 – Troubletimestwo – 1pt each way at 16’s (various) –
LINGFIELDAgain just the one bet on the card. But I do just have to say that if I was looking to spend around £10,000 on a horse, I wouldn’t hesitate in claiming The Witch Doctor who is in to be claimed for £9,000. An official rating of 86 doesn’t overly flatter him, although he might need to come down a couple of pounds to win again. He’s been unlikely in running a few times around here, but whether you want a horse to run in some of the better handicaps at the big flat meetings, or a horse to pick up a hurdle on two (maybe summer jumping) he looks a bit of a steal to me, and it’s not as if a horse hasn’t left the Noseda yard and improved before either!
3:15
Ok, this one is very speculative, but when I saw Mini Bon was being matched at under 5’s I knew it was a weak race, and I don’t think VEUVEVEUVEVOOM (easy for me to type!) should be dismissed as quickly as i’m sure most people will. She showed nothing on her first four outings last year and earned an official rating of 20! that said she always looked very green, was often slowly away etc etc, but it looked as if she would never have a pray of winning any race. Some people would argue she still hasn’t got a hope, but I’ve watched her last two efforts, and I’m not so sure. On both occasions she has still be a little slowly away, but the thing that caught my attention twice, is the between the 4f and 2f poles on both occasions she has shown as much mid race pace as anything else, in fact last time around halfway, everything else was being scrubbed along bar her. Both times she has lost her position just before turning in, and hasn’t looked all that comfortable coming round the bend. Once on an even keel again she has stayed on at the same pace, and both times hasn’t really lost any more ground. With no obvious pace setter in the field, I just wonder whether she might be able to get to the lead after a furlong or so, and then it would be quite interesting to see what would happen after that. If Cathy Gannon can really get after her turning in, whereever she is positioned, that could prove the key to a better effort. Funny things can happen in modest small field 5f events, and at the likely price, I’m going to chance a small bet on her causing an upset.
Juarla has never run here, but is obviously a worthy favourite, whilst Go Maggie Go might now have more confidence after winning last time. Mini Bon Bon is a tiny little filly, and is modest but at least tries.3:15 – Veuveveuvevoom – 0.5pt each way at 28/140’s with SJ & Skybet, 33’s elsewhere
Clearly Devon Native was the wrong price, still not sure where so many got 20’s from! Anyway another good result, 10’s, 20’s x 2 and 66’s in the last three days. I’ve added it all up and it comes to a profit of +38.5 for this thread now, which shows that I was a fair bit down before the weekend. Still as I’ve said before, I know from previous experience that you have far more losing days when the majority of the horses you back are double figure prices. I think thats why so many people like backing favourites, even though you’ll probably lose overall, you get your fix of winners fairly regularly.
Anyway onto Tuesday’s racing.
EXETER
The jackpot card, and some competitive races. Given the amount of people that will be playing, I’d imagine it will be won, although I can see a few big price winners on the card. If it does rollover again, it’ll probably be the biggest in it’s history, I’ll probably have a little go, you’ve gotta be in it to…
I’m going for a few at fancy prices, including a couple of horses I know very well, but haven’t backed for a while now.
In the first I don’t particularly fancy Semi Colon, but I prefer her to Pepite Rose, who I don’t think will be suited by this step up in trip. I think she struggled to get home at Fontwell over 2m2f, so the extra furlong around this stiffer layout could ultimately prove too much, and as per Fontwell she is now taking on older mares’ again. I’ll take a chance and leave her out my jackpot calculations. Hazy Dawn needs to improve on her Plumpton win, and together with Time To Think they are set to struggle under their penalties. Lucky Mix has shaped with promise in bumpers, and interestingly enough the horse who beat her at Ffos Las last time, finished third in a maiden point last season in which Pretty Penny was runner-up. The latter is now in the care of Martin Keighley who has been having a few winners since running his horses again after a cold in the yard. Playful Rose is the only other one who looks worthy of consideration. It’s a no bet race for me, and it may not be the easy start to the Jackpot some people think.
3:00
At the age of ten PEPPORONI PETE isn’t getting any better, but he shouldn’t be dismissed lightly in a race of this nature, and at a top price of 33/1 at the time or writing, he is worthy of support. He’s not been in the best of form so far this season, but last time wasn’t as bad as it appears at first glance. After six months off he reappeared in a jumpers bumper at Kempton and ran a satisfactory race. After that he went to Taunton for a claimer and after jumping out to his left at the first, he never looked happy as was eventually pulled up, a run to forget. Last time at Wincanton he pulled far too hard for his own good, and actually I’m surprised he lasted for as long as he did before folding about half a mile out over 2m6f, which I think is too far for him anyway. He runs off a mark of 112 here which is 3lb lower than the last time he won in September 09. I’m not saying it’s an overly generous mark, but it’s certainly one which gives him a fair chance. Earlier in his career he went well fresh, but in recent times his wins have come on the back of a few runs, possibly he is taking more work to get fit as he gets older. He has once run at this track, over this distance, and he was second of fifteen, which can only be viewed as a positive. The ground will be fine, and Charlie Poste has won on him twice before. He can sometimes be keen, but last time he was worse than normal, as that was only seventeen days ago, he hopefully won’t be quite as fresh this time around, and the bigger field should enable him to get settled in amongst horses.
Roalco De Farges will probably start favourite, but if you look at his novice form, and the horses he has finished around, he looks handicapped on the money to me, and I personally wouldn’t have him quite as short as 3/1. Baccalaureate caused a massive surprise at Cheltenham last season although that as it turns out that was a very weak grade 2. He has been disappointing since, but showed a bit more last time, and he could be dangerous now. Uncle Bunge is a horse I was going to back at Fontwell recently, until he was taken out. I’ll be keeping an eye on him here, rather than backing him, as I think he might just find this slightly too taxing, an easy two miles may prove to suit him best.3:30
The Devon National, a grand title, but it’s only a £10,000 added race!!! Some old favourites in this, the likes of Flintoff, Kilbeggan Blade and Cowboyboots, although it’s hard to fancy any of those trio. I haven’t backed DRYBROOK BEDOUIN so far this season, but the time has come. He was my fancy for last season’s Cheltenham Foxhunters, he ran ok finishing ninth, beaten twenty five lengths, but he was never really involved. He started off his handicap career at Kempton over 2m4f, but as I suspected he found things happening far too quickly around there and was pulled up. He ran much better at Wincanton over 3m1f, and was running on well at the finish. The same thing happened last time at Sandown, having got himself a long way behind, he finished really well up the hill and not for the first time suggested he would have no trouble getting further. He’s not a spectacular jumper, although he’s fairly safe, and I think the slightly easiest jumping test here, compared to Sandown/Kempton where they come up quite close to each other, will only serve to help his cause, as will the fact that they will be going that bit slower. He’s won four point to points in his career as well as a couple of hunter chases (one at Cheltenham over 3m2f) and this would be a nice race to add to those. Several of his opponents are either out of form, or of suspect character, neither comment applies to him, and this marathon trip could be the making of him under rules.
Shaking Hands will be popular, and he’s young and lightly raced enough to have improvement in him. For me he’ll need to improve though, as a rise of 12lb for beating the likes of Digger Gets Lucky and Arnold Layne looks a little harsh. Jonjo O’Neill won this last year, and he has Raise You Five with McCoy in the plate this time. She’s a typical O’Neill/McManus type in that I can’t get a handle on her at all, as she never runs two races the same. I’m not convinced that she’ll get the trip and at 6’s or thereabouts she makes no appeal to me. Ten Fires is an interesting irish raider, although from what I know about irish form he doesn’t looked all that well treated. My idea of the main danger is Cashel Blue who has been in good form, stays all day, and who is still fairly treated in comparision to his hurdles mark.If Stripe Me Blue could jump a fence he would be ridiculously well handicapped, but unless Yogi Breisner or some other miracle worker has transformed him since last time, he won’t be getting round, yet alone winning. I think this race (4:00) is very tricky, for the purposes of the jackpot (sure i’ll be out by now) I’ll suggest Master Eddy and Oscar Prairie.
Glitzy D’Ocala will be a banker for many I’m sure, and after a couple of poor efforts from Stolen Thunder after a promising debut, I can’t really disagree.
5:00
A low grade finale, but just the type of race I like. LUPITA is finally running back over 2m (and a furlong!) and that makes her interesting. She ran well here over 2m3f after a similar length break to this last season off a mark of 74. She ran a fair enough when last seen at Chepstow off the mark she races off here. She has often run well at this venue, at 2m3f and 2m5f, but she doesn’t look short of pace to me, and has often been weakening late on. The fact that she won over 2m1f on the flat at both would seem to suggest I’m barking up the wrong tree. I don’t dispute that she stays 2m4f, but I can’t help but think, from what I’ve seen that she’ll be more effective back at this trip. She’s a three time flat winner, but hasn’t yet managed to break her duck over hurdles. I was slightly concerned by the fact that he jockey Ms Lodge, has never come close to winning a race under rules, but I’ve since delved deeper, and she has in fact ridden several point winners. For one of her ability she travels pretty well in her races, which should help her jockey enormously in a race of this nature. I can’t believe that she has much less ability than some of these, and yet she is receiving a lot of weight from most.
Man Of Leisure has been consistent of late, and ran into a hot one in Decent Lord last time, he should be thereabouts again, and Nerys Dutfield could do with a winner or two. Chouromanesco I backed last time at Plumpton, but this will probably be too sharp a test for him. Taste The Wine is a bit quirky, but wasn’t disgraced in some novice hurdles last season and this will be the easiest task he’s faced over hurdles so far, so he’s feared most. Tiger Dream is a horse I think will win a modest handicap soon, but I think he needs strong handling and with due respect to his jockey, i don’t think he’ll get what he needs in a race like this.3:00 – Pepporoni Pete – 1pt each way at 33/1 (Bet 365, next best at time or writing Hills 28’s, I wouldn’t accept less than 20’s)
3:30 – Drybrook Bedouin – 1.5pt each way at 14/1 (Hills, VC, B365, wouldn’t accept less than 12’s)
5:00 – Lupita – 1pt each way at 14/1 or better (no prices until the morning)NEWCASTLE
A card of small fields, I’m not quite sure why, but whilst I can’t find anything at a really big price, I am keen on one at what should be a reasonable price.
2:50
MISS TARANTELLA isn’t a prolific winner, with just a sole front running victory at Hexham over 2 miles to her name so far. She was rated 69 that day, and given that was over two years ago and she is currently rated 85, it’s fair to say the handicapper hasn’t been giving her too much help. On the plus side she has been competitive off this kind of mark since then, and this is the easiest task she’s had for a while. She hasn’t shown much in two starts since November, so her current wellbeing is a slight concern, but she has run well to a point on both occasions over further, and despite having placed form at 3m, I believe this trip is ideal for her. She will love the soft ground, and can either make the running (which she may well do unless Lochore takes it on like last time) or sit in behind. I hope she does press on here as I think she stays better than most of these, at the very least I would hope she might sit in behind the pace and then turn the screw before entering the straight. I’ve just watched a video of her 7lb conditional jockey on a Nicky Richards horse at Ayr, and after seeing that I wouldn’t have any concerns in that department.
Overyou ran well over C&D on her penultimate start and on that form would be a worthy favourite. However she flopped again last time, and isn’t one to be backing at short prices. Cute N You Know It is really off a platers mark now, but for me she prefers better ground, and again taking shortish prices about a horse like her is not the way to make money. Final Veto was running better until unseating last time at Catterick and he’s potentially dangerous now off his current mark. If you back him you will probably know your fate by halfway, as when he’s not on a going day, he usually comes off the bridle pretty early on.2:50 – Miss Tarantella – 2pt win at 5/1 or better (no prices until morning)
SOUTHWELL
A typical Southwell card, with a seller and a claimer in amongst the low quality handicaps. In the claimer Hindu Kush is interesting taking on course specialist La Estrella, the former was fourth behind Conduit in the St Leger a few years ago!
Just the one bet and it’s a very speculative one, but it’s not a track at which I like to back anything at too short a price usually anyway, so the bigger price the better.5:00
MOON LIGHTENING has shown next to nothing so far for Tina Jackson. He was formerly with Mark Tompkins and was in fair form last season on turf with creditable placed efforts at both Warwick and Goodwood. He has run three times at this venue for current connections, beaten 30, 30 and 24 lengths. Two of those were in sellers in which he had no chance at the weights, and the one handicap start was at a mile, in which he faded rapidly two out. He ran in that handicap off 69, and yet just two runs later is now off of 52!!! That and the fact that Paul Hanagan is on are what sparked my interest, coupled with the fact that the only race he has ever won was over C&D as a juvenile. He’s been racing very close to the pace here recently, and yet his best efforts have been when ridden with more restraint, so it’ll be interestng to see how they approach this race. Only the likely favourite Johnnie Skull ran well last time, and in a really poor race, I just think he is interesting now off this mark with Hanagan up.
5:00 – Moon Lightening – 1pt each way at 10/1 or better (no prices until morning)
- Total Posts 17716
Well done with Devon Native, Robert. So convincing was your argument, I actually broke one of my own rules and backed her blind; the double with Troubletimestwo (who was running well enough before falling) would have been tasty!
Exeter looks hellishly difficult tomorrow, but I quite like Lucky Mix in the opener – half-brother Keepthedreamalive was well beaten in two bumpers before improving massively for obstacles – and Annimation (3.00) looks to have a reasonable chance returned to the scene of her last victory. She’s had a short break having had no chance against Sparky May and Alverstone recently, and is fitted with a first-time tongue tie. She looks too big at 14/1, especially given the subsequent exploits of Naughty Naughty.
The other horse of interest on the card is It’s A Classic in the Devon National. This sort of trip around Exeter is perhaps not ideal for a horse returning from a little over a year off, but Pat Murphy does well with staying chasers and he has won after a break before. He looked to be progressive when a faller at Plumpton last March, extreme tests seem to suit and he’s not actually ten for another 3 months. I expect him to drift from the current 16/1, but even that seems fair.
Armchair
Troubletimestwo i’m sure would have been placed barring the unfortunate accident at the last, never mind.
Good luck with your Exeter selections, I’d much rather be on Lucky Mix/Pretty Penny at the prices in the first than the two favourites, but i’m leaving alone.
I can see why you give a chance to It’s A Classic, and you were right it has got bigger, I hope he finishes second behind Drybrook!
We all have horses which we think have potential that’s only visible to us. My current one is Pytheas. I’ve got him down as a potentially smart hurdler but I think I’m in a minority of one on that score.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.