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I am keen to learn a lot more about studying form, and building my own ratings, like most punters I normally spend about 5 – 10 minutes looking at a race before making my selection. So I have decided that its time to start looking more deeply, and spend a good amount of time each day looking at just one race. I am sure I will get it wrong on plenty of occasions but that is how we learn, so for today its the 3:30 at Taunton.
Probably going to start this then have to come back to it later as I have a few things to do this morning.
Tinker Time Finished last season poorly after going up 9lb for a good win at Ludlow, maybe that rise was a little harsh, although the second place horse has since gone up 16lb. Seasonal reappearance at Chepstow was one to be written off, up in class, and certainly didn’t seem to enjoy the hills of Chepstow, definitely all good results seem to have come at flat right handed tracks. Back up to form when back down in class in next race at Ascot, a good second keeping on well. Last race here was completely unsuitable trip and did well to stay with the other two. Not without a chance today but handicap is definitely not lenient.
Minellacelebration Good 2nd in chase debut this year at Exeter, rated 123 for that when not quite able to head a 120 rated rival. Won next time out at Aintree from that mark the first 2 well clear of the rest 7lb rise for that seemed very fair. Hard to say what went wrong on a poor show at Exeter next time, and well held in second after that at Taunton, seemingly running out of gas. Fell last time out racing prominently over 2 1/2 miles. Maybe just needs a break, but seems well held at the moment. Not one I would want to put forward.
Boa Island Won first two starts over fences in good style at Wincanton over 2.5 Miles, before falling at Exeter when travelling well enough, up in trip to 3M. Finished strongly after trying to make all around Chepstow latest, just held into 3rd, that was a strong run and mark looks workable. Should enjoy going right handed around a sharp track like this judging on the 2 wins at Wincanton very much in with a chance here.
By The Boardwalk Disappointing run at Perth on seasonal reappearance however may have just been on need of the run, and followed up with victory next time at Perth, driven out at the finish. 5lb hike for that seemed harsh to me. 4th at Exeter wasn’t too bad but was well held from a long way out, although finishing well clear of the remainder. Winner of that race had every chance of winning a grade 2 next time but for a couple of late mistakes. Probably best performance so far 2nd at Lundlow latest, and only 1lb higher here for that. Definitely another worth considering, mark looks fair.
Kerrow Only one run over fences, decent enough run jumped well and mark looks fair, could feature.
Silver Commander Hard to be enthused about reappearance.
Moss On The Mill Beat By The Boardwalk on penultimate start, but the 6lb rise for that seemed to have him well held around here latest, well behind Minellacelebration. Hard to see improvement enough from that run to feature again.
Cloudy Bob 1 completed run in 4 starts doesn’t make for good reading.
Ballycoe Seems to perform better over shorter and hard to see making an impression here.
Abracadabra Sivola Fell & Pulled Up on last 2 starts, hard to know what to expect.
So in summary, my top 3 would be.
Boa Island
Kerrow
Tinker Time
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