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I’m looking to test a system that utilises private handicap ratings. I’ve tried using the Raceform database but there is a problem – they update the RPRs to reflect subsequent form. So, for example, a hot maiden, where the first four won next time, might be rated 85 instead of the orginal 75.
For system testing purposes I want the past RPRs as they would have been on the day of each race in question.
Does anyone have, or know where I can aquire, old ratings books/spreadsheets/racecards etc that would have the private handicap ratings as they were on the day?
Timeform Flat Perspective prints timefigures for the first 6 home in UK races and how far ahead (+) or behind (-) the form ratings these are, from which the form ratings themselves can be deduced. TF of 82 (-6) shows that the form rating was 88.
As these are published shortly after the race in question was run, they have hardly ever been subjected to "back-handicapping" at this stage.
Is that any good?
Did the research into horse weights lead you anywhere, Glenn? Go on: put a little back.
Thanks for that Pru, how would I get hold of this for 2006?
As far as weight goes, I was merely looking at what theoretical difference weight might make to a 2yo as opposed to a 3yo (filly as opposed to a colt).
For example, a horse carrying a 9st jockey running a mile in 100secs:
Say a 2yo typically weighs 1000lb, an extra 1lb should slow the horse down by 1/1140 or 0.0877secs. Assuming 6 lenths a second that’s 1.9lbs per length.
For an 1100lb horse this rises to 2.07lbs per length and for a 1200lb horse it would rise to 2.23lbs per length.
Glenn,
Timeform Handicap Ledger can be bought from Timeform and shows every mark and speedfigure they gave for every race
I was merely looking at what theoretical difference weight might make to a 2yo as opposed to a 3yo
Theoretical or actual? It’s not that difficult to figure out the former – well that’s what I think – but the latter…..
Hmmm (strokes chin), that’s difficult………
I think that the horse age to weight to length calculations are generalisations that are just ‘fog’ .. unless you can put the horses ‘actual’ weight into the equation.
Of course this kind of useful information isnt available to the great unwashed.
Because a horserace isn’t like a neat scientific experiment conducted in a laboratory: there are many things that affect it – pace of race, precise consistency of surface etc – that are difficult or impossible to allow for.
The average margins between standardised horses seems to show that you should not treat a mile run in 100 sec on turf exactly the same as a mile run in 100 sec on Fibresand, for instance.
I do think the theory part is very interesting and can get you close to "the truth", but the evidence often points to some slightly alternative version.
IMO.
The theory part is very interesting, I agree.
The point I am making is that the most important piece of the puzzle regarding this approach, ie. the actual horse weight, is missing.
With luck it won’t always be.
I’m led to believe that a major sponsor seriously considered backing the weighing of horses a few years back when the technology wasn’t as good as it is now.
There was an interesting piece in Racing Post recently about a weighing system – Horse Weigh – at the Asian Racing Conference. Sounds like things have moved on a bit.
If anyone’s interested, although no prices are listed as far as I can tell:
I spoke to these people in Dubai and they seem to have a good product. The key to their system is that the scale automatically scans the microchip within the horse and then wirelessly sends the horse data and weight to a computer which can publish this information on a big screen etc. I also suggested that they talked to somebody like the RP, PA or SIS to think of ways of relaying this information to punters on the internet and/or in betting shops.
Glenn, can you confirm that your formula in the above resolves itself into M/(6*T), where M is the combined weight of horse and jockey and T is overall race time?
I am sure you are aware that the 6 in the above (6 lengths a second) is an approximation and varies according to circumstances.
Seems rather simple to me. Perhaps you can shed more light on it.
I also have a question .. if a 2YO weighs 1000lbs (+/- 20lbs, 2%) how can you calculate what effect 1lb can have ?
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