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I am already on Desert Flower @ 3/1.
However…
Have now taken just over 7/1 about Whirl – despite 8/1 being available (unavailable to me) elsewhere at MGM.Recent talk from AOB (on the Racing Post) suggests they’re leaning towards the English Oaks…
And – for me – she stands a much better chance than Coolmore’s other two. So – if running – I expect Ryan Moore to be on board. Displayed some impressive (staying) sectionals and should be a clear second favourite come the first Friday in June.Value Is EverythingTaking on the fav over the trip. Giselle has potential but unsure about the track for her. Whirl they were thinking French Oaks after her trial win so don’t know if she is top of the pile.
So Minnie Hauk 5-1 ew it is.Mike,
Watching the Musidora live, it LOOKED as if Whirl quickened impressively away from her rivals. ie As if speed at 10f was her asset. So I can understand why “The Lads” immediately thought the French Oaks at 10f was going to suit. Particularly as their other two “Oaks” fillies Minnie Hawk and Giselle will both need at least 12f to be at their best going forward. However, sectional times of the Musidora tell a different story. Whirl going further and further clear NOT because of a turn of foot, but because she was slowing down at a lesser rate than her rivals. ie It was stamina at the trip – not speed – that won her the Musidora and should be even better at 12f. The form is also better than the Cheshire Oaks or Lingfield Oaks Trial victories of her stable companions. If Whirl has recovered (after a very hard race at York) I expect her to run. O’Brien has recently (after the sectionals were known) suggested in a Racing Post interview that Whirl is likely now head to Epsom.Value Is EverythingVery little interest in sectional times and all that race IQ rubbish. I do know that Whirl has had 2 season runs and Minnie Hawk will come on for her first one.
So you don’t think whether a horse actually quickened significantly OR stayed on (slowing at a lesser rate than its rivals) – is at all important when judging stamina requirements?
Value Is EverythingI can decide that with my own eyes and any feedback from the trainer and jockey. From this I am quite confident Minnie Hauk will stay. One can chuck all the data anyone wants Desert Flower’s way but we won’t know if she will stay until she runs the trip. I would rather take her on in this. As for Whirl, I never said she wouldn’t stay, I just said I’m not sure if she is necessarily the stable number one for this race with connections originally favouring the French Oaks.
We will see who Ryan Moore goes for.
Desert Flower SP all the way home.
I think she’ll stay and push for home once she has negotiated Tattenham Corner.They may come late for Giselle and Whirl but the former may not handle Epsom or want it too soft. Desert Flower has a much more prominent high knee action and once Will Buick gets her balanced she will quicken nicely.
Really looking forward to this one.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Hope Desert Flower wins, Jac. But I can’t see it being like you predict. imo She won’t go to the front until at least the 2 furlong marker and maybe even the furlong pole. With stamina a concern.
I think Desert Flower is better than 50 – 50 to stay the trip on a sound surface. However (in any race) – if there is any chance of a horse not staying – the softer the ground is, the more emphasis on stamina. So although Desert Flower “acts” on a softish surface – she’s less likely to stay and therefore imo has less chance of winning on a softer surface. Added to that… Coolmore’s three runners are all stamina horses at the trip. So long odds-on it’ll be a strongly run race whatever the ground conditions.
For me – there is little difference between Desert Flower’s action and Giselle. The latter may have been beaten on the softest ground she’s raced on, but it was also in the best race she’s run in. The Silken Glider Group 3, incidentally won by Whirl. Giselle started odds-on fav that day, so on the face of it a disappointing run. But she did best of those from further back and met interference. I’d say she is probably equally effective on soft… And – as said – soft ground will place more emphasis on stamina and Giselle has plenty of it. Minnie Hauk possibly even more so, may well stay the Park Hill / Leger trip.
I hope Whirl will not be sacrificed – team tactics. Normally a front runner. If not ridden by Moore I can see her going for home from too far out. Daring Desert Flower to follow; only for Minnie Hauk or Giselle to pick up the pieces.
Value Is EverythingI really hope they don’t sacrifice a Musidora winner, Minnie Hauk out of the three at the moment is the one people want
“Minnie Hauk out of the three at the moment is the one people want”
I don’t blame ’em ;o)
“shows how much i know mike had her down as third in a field of three”
You could still be right. Hope not but you might be.
Update on the RP website…
“Giselle, Minnie Hauk and Whirl have all come out of their races well,” O’Brien said. “I would imagine Ryan will ride Minnie Hauk. She’s a lovely, straightforward filly and we think she’s come forward loads for Chester, when she was just ready to start.”
watching Chesire Oaks again win lose or draw she will be the one hitting the line the hardest.
Charlie Appleby is not one for saying this is the best he’s ever trained but with Desert Flower he cannot hide how proud he is of her and what she has achieved. She got a sharp intake of breath from those around the parade ring when she entered on Guineas day. I’ve never witnessed that before.
Unbeaten in all her races, able to make her own running and quicken away to win. Winner of Group 1 races she is versatile and talented and if Lake Victoria has improved so much since the Guineas then who’s to say that she hasn’t also and will be even better on Friday.
Ginge you have a great price Desert Flower at 3/1 and I do agree her best will come in the final two furlongs but I don’t think she’ll lack stamina. She can make her own running if needed but Will Buick will be patient and get her balanced around the turn and as they meet the final furlong and the rising ground hoping she’ll dig deep pull out that bit extra to power away to the line.
Minnie Hauk has won at Chester and handled it very well and she is definitely the danger but the horses she beat have not progressed (although she may well do) and same with Giselle and Whirl and none have the Gp.1 and unbeaten credentials of the favourite. She could give CA his first ever Oaks winner.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
I think she’ll stay and push for home once she has negotiated Tattenham Corner.
Jac
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