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Star Of Light 33-1 ew
By Frankel out of Star Catcher. Was waiting for the stable tour to see if they were going to try the Oaks route with her and they are. So thrown a dart her way in case she has some of her family’s ability.
Desert Flower definitely a player Nick.
But for a bit of value…Falakeyah – 8/1 – EW
Won both her races now .. Class 5 on the All Weather and then straight to the Pretty Polly 1m2f where she made all.
Big rounded action but fast moving, she was almost flying down the Rowley Mile at one point..could easily make all in the Oaks
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...thanks Nathan and Jac, Falakeyah to be honest Jac in Pretty Polly I thought she was running away with Crowley, but looking at the sectionals i think the 5 to the 4 marker were her quickest and she still completed the final furlong quicker than any other
I thought Falakeyah was too free at 10f… And that was with a soft lead. I’d have thought Coolmore will have two or three in the Oaks and at least one will take Falakeyah on in front. Going an extra two furlongs (slower pace) AND something taking her on up front… The chance of her pulling too hard is quite strong. I wouldn’t be surprised if connections take the French Oaks route instead.
Value Is EverythingTaken the 12-1 about Giselle.
Okay, she had precious little to beat yesterday and changed her legs a million times coming down the hill and in the straight, but she will have learnt a lot and I prefer her to her stablemate, Minnie Hauk, who looked slow as a boat to me. It’ll be interesting to see which one Moore prefers on the day.
I don’t think Desert Flower will stay, and Falakeyah is likely to go to France, while there isn’t anything lurking further down the lists that looks to have the same potential as my selection.
“Slightly exuberant”? Strikes me as she does whatever the jockey wants. Settling really well and no sign of being free at all. In the 1000 I think connections plan to lead was born out of not wanting it to turn into a speed test at a mile… And didn’t seem to be going as well as the runner-up before staying on once put under some pressure…
And in the Fillies Mile as a juvenile wasn’t going anywhere near as well as January before putting in a prolonged level of speed that took her clear.
Desert Flower’s sire Night Of thunder’s progeny mostly take after him – best at around a mile. But although dam Promising Run only won at up to 9f, her 4 lengths and a head 3rd to So Mi Dar in the Musidora (10f) was probably up with Promising Run’s best 9f form.
Desert Flower’s half brother Aablan (actually closer than half as Aablan is by Desert Flower’s paternal grand-sire Dubawi) won the Solario at 7f but hasn’t been seen since his two year old campaign, so it is difficult to know his stamina requirements.
Promising Run herself was by Hard Spun who again only won up to 9f but was equally effective over further, at 10f. Second in both Kentucky Derby and Breeders Cup Turf to Street Sense and Curlin… And one of Promising Run’s half sisters was Arabian Comet. Another one who won at up to 12f but probably put up her best performance over further… A closing half a length second to Missunited in the 1m6f Group 3 Lilly Langtry at Goodwood. Arabian Comet was also by Dubawi, Promising Run by Hard Spun… So on breeding – if anything you’d think Promising Run would’ve had more stamina than Arabian Comet. Their dam Aviacion was a Brazilian Grade 1 winner at 10f who also had a middle distance pedigree. Going back through her sire Known Heights to Aviacion’s grand-sire Epsom Derby winner Shirley Heights… Who was of course by Mill Reef.
imo Desert Flower has one of the best temperaments you’re likely to see and therefore likely to stay further than her pedigree suggests. To me – she’s running as if further than a mile will suit. I’d be almost certain of her getting 10f. Admittedly 12f I’m not quite so sure but I’d say at least a fair chance of doing so.
Value Is EverythingThanks for the detailed response, Ginge. One question: don’t you think I’ve considered all of that? 🤔
Minding won The Oaks. 12 furlongs was far further than ideal but her class got her through. She never ran over the distance again.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the same happens with Desert Flower.
I don’t know what you’ve considered, Glad’. As you didn’t expand at all on why you thought the horse was “slightly exuberant” and why the “pedigree” puts you off at the price… Which is fair enough. Yes, I thought you must have considered a lot of it.
There are stamina doubts, but there are (above) reasons for me to believe she has at least a fair chance of staying… And with Lake Victoria imo an even greater stamina doubt as well as a very unlikely runner (imo going the mile route)… And Whirl currently thought more likely to go for the French Oaks than English… On Desert Flower’s 2 year old form is far superior than what she is likely to face going into the race… And still has physical scope to progress herself. So although both Minnie Hawk and Giselle have obvious scope for improvement (I’d be surprised if they don’t improve at least 7 lbs), they still have a lot to find. Desert Flower probably only needs to stay to win. So even if a “probable” non-stayer (less than 50% chance of staying) imo has around a 33 to 30% chance of winning. Good value @ 3/1.
Value Is Everything
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