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Not confident at all in this, but because its The Oaks I’ll have a bet.
Timepiece to win
and
A small R/F on Timepiece and the Bolger Horse.
Meeznah will comfortably be the better filly when she learns how to race in a straight line. Fantastic ride by Moore though.
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An excellent ride and a great victory for the home team. Congrats to all the winners. An owner/breeder buy back for €1800. Should make a little more next time she hits the sales ring.
I’m sure I even saw Ryan Moore crack a smile there.
- Total Posts 17716
INVESTEC OAKS 2010
Runners
10/1 Akdarena
9/2 Aviate
33/1 Awe Inspiring
66/1 Bikini Babe
40/1 Cabaret
14/1 Ceilidh House
25/1 Champagnelifestyle
14/1 Gertrude Bell
150/1 Lady Lupus
33/1 Marie De Medici
33/1 Meeznah
8/1 Remember When
5/1 Rumoush
7/1 Sajjhaa
16/1 Snow Fairy
7/1 TimepieceHistory
The last 10 Oaks winners in speed ratings is going to be vital when later going on to assess 2010 candidates though the process of elimination, separating those who are out of their depth from those who are viable candidates.
Speed Ratings
99.82 Ramruma (1999)
91.17 Love Divine (2000)
97.48 Imagine (2001)
96.11 Kazzia (2002)
88.57 Casual Look (2003)
100.13 Ouija Board (2004)
91.51 Eswarah (2005)
94.59 Alexandrova (2006)
96.91 Light Shift (2007)
101.42 Look Here (2008)
100.81 Sariska (2009)Average: 96.23
Median : 96.91Ground
The ground aspect will be added to the investigation because I feel not every horse will have their preferred ground leading up to the Oaks or some will be advantaged i.e real soft performers from the quick ground performers and if we can gather a median and average time over the 10 years then form an overall average we can possible envisage what type of ground we’re likely to encounter and to try take away the advantaged performers. Of course this isn’t bomb proof but it’s more pieces to the Oaks puzzle and we can use the overall average to mark up horses too for example; if the 10 year average was 1.00 and a horse had run a speed rating of 89 on ground recording -4.00 we can add 5pts to the speed rating (difference between actual ground and projected ground + speed rating). There will be a table later on that will be rated to the average ground based on their best rating.
-0.12 1999
-1.57 2000
1.63 2001
-3.35 2002
2.23 2003
2.03 2004
1.11 2005
1.45 2006
-0.73 2007
1.03 2008
2.07 2009Average: 0.53
Median : 1.11
Total Average: 0.82Horses
Latest run (Rating) (Ground) (Class Performance)
Akdarena
Navan (92.42) (4.49) (+5.20)
Navan (97.04) (-0.86) (+2.92)Aviate
Ascot (81.50) (1.73) (-5.74)
York (86.08) (4.34) (-3.33)Awe Inspiring
Leopardstown (77.88) (-5.25) (-4.11)
Cork (72.07 (-2.11) (-5.42)Bikini Babe
Sandown (77.24) (1.29) (-14.13)
York (82.08) (4.34) (-7.33)Cabaret
Leopardstown (85.51) (1.58) (-0.96)
York (80.08) (4.34) (-9.33)Ceilidh House
Nottingham (74.60) (-3.17) (-5.99)
Lingfield (86.80) (-0.04) (-2.65)Champagnelifestyle
Newbury (70.93) (2.48) (-18.10)
Chester (87.25) (2.06) (-1.01)Gertrude Bell
Newbury (80.59 (-1.76) (-2.00)
Chester (88.25) (2.06) (+0.01)Lady Lupus
Navan (74.42) (4.49) (-13.20)
Navan (85.04) (-0.86) (-11.92)Marie De Medici
Newmarket (90.32) (0.48) (-1.73)
Newmarket (80.90) (-1.49) (-7.33)Meeznah
Yarmouth (80.47) (0.47) (+3.81)
Newmarket (84.48) (1.01) (+1.54)Remember When
Gowran Park (95.24) (1.06) (-1.23)
Curragh (98.08) (1.67) (+6.32)Rumoush
Newmarket (93.32) (0.48) (+2.73)
Newmarket (89.36) (-1.24) (-3.59)Sajjhaa
Sandown (79.74) (0.97) (-11.44)Snow Fairy
Goodwood (86.66) (0.55) (-3.93)
Goodwood (93.80) (0.96) (+5.56)Timepiece
Newmarket (89.32) (0.48) (+2.73)
Lingfield (89.80) (-0.04) (+1.65)Top Speed Ratings
98.08 Remember When
95.04 Akdarena
93.89 Snow Fairy
93.32 Rumoush
90.32 Marie De Medici
89.80 Timepiece
88.25 Gertrude Bell
87.25 Champagnelifestyle
86.80 Ceilidh House
86.08 Aviate
85.51 Cabaret
85.04 Lady Lupus
84.48 Meeznah
82.08 Bikini Babe
79.74 Sajjhaa
77.88 Awe InspiringAdjusted To Ground
97.23 Remember When (v)
96.08 Akdarena (^)
93.75 Snow Fairy (v)
93.68 Rumoush (^)
90.68 Marie De Medici (^)
89.06 Gertrude Bell (^)
89.06 Champagnelifestyle (^)
88.97 Timepiece (v)
88.59 Aviate (^)
87.66 Ceilidh House (^)
85.98 Lady Lupus (^)
84.46 Cabaret (v)
84.21 Meeznah (v)
80.59 Awe Inspiring (^)
79.62 Sajjhaa (v)
78.56 Bikini Babe (v)The adjustment to ground hasn’t seen any drastic changes to the top of the table but it has made the field tighter and closer together, here are the negatives and positives.
Positives
Aviate up from 10th to 9th
Lady Lupus up from 12th to 11th
Awe Inspiring up from 16th to 14thNegatives
Timepiece dropped from 6th to 8th
Cabaret dropped from 11th to 12thImprovements
This is a new aspect I’ve been trailing out for a few months and it involves the improvement in percentage from the horse’s previous two runs and projecting their potential into becoming a serious candidate for the Oaks or not using the Speed Rating Average of the past 10 winners.
23.06% – Champagnelifestyle
16.08% – Ceilidh House
14.27% – Lady Lupus
9.50% – Gertrude Bell
8.23% – Snow Fairy
6.26% – Bikini Babe
5.61% – Aviate
4.97% – Meeznah
4.96% – Akdarena
2.91% – Remember When *
0.53% – Timepiece
-4.31% – Rumoush
-6.10% – Cabaret
-8.06% – Awe Inspiring
-11.64% – Marie De Medici
-SajjhaaNow we have to assess whether they have showing enough improvement to find future progress to become a potential candidate and we’ll start with the biggest improvers.
*Remember When has already achieved Group 1 status
Improvement NeededOaks Average – 96.23
1.25% – Akdarena
2.49% – Snow Fairy
3.12% – Rumoush
6.54% – Marie De Medici
7.16% – Timepiece
9.04% – Gertrude Bell
10.29% – Champagnelifestyle
10.86% – Ceilidh House
11.79% – Aviate
12.54% – Cabaret
13.16% – Lady Lupus
13.91% – Meeznah
17.24% – Bikini Babe
20.68% – Sajjhaa
23.56% – Awe InspiringPositives
Akdarena has shown 4.96% improvement and only requires 1.25%
Snow Fairy has shown 8.23% improvement and only requires 2.49%
Gertrude Bell has shown 9.50% improvement and only requires 9.02%
Champagnelifestyle has shown 23.06% improvement and only requires 10.29%
Ceilidh House has shown 16.08% improvement and only requires 10.86%
Lady Lupus has shown 14.27% improvement and only requires 13.16%Negatives
Timepiece has shown 0.53% improvement and required 7.16%
Aviate has shown 5.61% improvement and required 11.79%
Cabaret has shown -6.1% improvement and required 12.54%
Meeznah has shown 4.97% improvement and required 13.91%
Bikini Babe has shown 6.26% improvement and required 17.24%
Awe Inspiring has shown -8.06% improvement and required 23.56%
Rumoush has shown -4.31% improvement and required 3.12%
Marie De Medici has shown -11.64% improvement and required 6.54%Elimination
• Timepiece
• Aviate
• Cabaret
• Meeznah
• Bikini Babe
• Awe Inspiring
• Lady Lupus
• Rumoush
• Marie De MediciFinal Cut
Akdarena – This filly has done nothing wrong for Jim Bolger and I have already traded out on her because I don’t feel she can make all in the Oaks which looks to be her most effective riding style, she’ll give anyone whose backed her a run for their money especially turning into the straight were she won’t fail for guts and determination but I expect the classier horses to fight out the finish.
Snow Fairy – I really do like Snow Fairy’s chances, she was a real comfortable winner last time out at Goodwood going away from a very useful filly in 2nd. Ryan Moore’s mount is fairly well hardened carrying 9-7 in a 18 runner nursery at Newmarket coming 2nd, experience of fast, soft and polytrack conditions aswell as having 3 runs in the space of 29 days, she has enjoyed her break and comeback a very decent filly who has undoubted e/w chances.
Gertrude Bell – This could be the start of a really good weekend for John Gosden who has live outsider Azmeel a pricewise selection and a horse flying under the radar which is a bit like Gertrude Bell who has done nothing wrong at all in both her wins showing a real nice improvement between runs doing just enough to get the job done and she could run well for a place although I really haven’t seen enough in her races that grabs me as a real Oaks winner
Champagnelifestyle – This for me is the Oaks bet I am looking at getting involved in, she was a massive improver when running last time out at Chester putting up a decent time and given that rapid improvement it wouldn’t be out of the realms that she could go on win on Friday. There is plenty of stamina in the pedigree and being by Montjeu she doesn’t lack classic credentials were it could be a great weekend for the sire with Jan Vermeer running Saturday. The Barry Hills team are upbeat about her chances saying she has come in her coat and improved which is no surprise given the nature of her rise shown in the investigation and remains a very solid outsider.
Remember When – The class horse in the race and sets a real high standard putting up the best speed rating when improving from her run behind Chinese White although I think the sheer impressive nature of that time means she may just have peaked at the Curragh and it’s hard for a filly to put back to back times like that especially at this level and stepping up in trip.
BetsChampagnelifestyle EW @ 25/1
Snow Fairy EW @ 16/1
Tricast Champagnelifestyle, Snowy Fairy, Akdarena1st – Champagnelifestyle
2nd – Snowy Fairy
3rd – AkdarenaBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!
Cheers, bring on Midas Touch. ta
Congrats to those who won, seemed a very odd race.
Anyone know how to make Ryan Moore smile?
Remember When is going to develop into a very good filly. She is the one I would take out of the race.
Fourth in the Irish Guineas. Third in the Epsom Oaks.
Her three-parts brother, Dylan Thomas, matured into an even better 4YO and I hope Ballydoyle give Remember When the opportunity to showcase her talents next year.
Ten furlongs would appear to be her best trip for the remainder of the season.
I’d agree that she’s the one to follow over 10 furlongs, but over 12 furlongs I’d happily follow Meeznah, although Rumoush is certainly one to keep on the right side of. Apparently she didn’t handle the course one iota. Ironically Snow Fairy may be the one to give up on.
Remember When just didn’t stay.
Even after going a hack canter in the middle of the race.
1m-10f is her distance.
Lay the nuts off her in the Irish Oaks if she goes.
Managed to get my bets placed on Akdarina, Gertrude Bell and Meeznah unfortunately my bigger bet was on Akdarina. Haven’t had a chance to watch a re run of the race yet, as things are a bit hectic on the home front. Need to look at the winner again as I’ve left my notes at home, but pleased with Meeznah. Just hope I get to see The Derby tomorrow, as Fallon put in a good word for Co-odinated Cut today, although if he wins with my money on he’s bound to be disqualified the way my season is going!
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