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Agree that it doesn’t inspire as race at the moment but invariably the time to judge a classic is 2-3 months after and not the week before.
Gertrude Bell for me, more for the visible impression at Newbury rather than Chester, where she may have won despite the way the race panned out. Also she seems to have sufficient stamina and as Gosden pointed out that first uphill mile might suit here really well and find out some others.
I backed her at 16/1 after Chester..I think she is still available at that price and looks to have a wee chance.Finally sided with Snow Fairy, in addition to Aviate. Pipette is a useful marker and she thrashed her even with a stumbled start. Both picks are Improving, progressive types with a turn of foot and should be able to travel into the race as others feel the pinch. Hopefully they stay!
gl
Having backed Aviate in the Musidora, and winning from a position which seemed unlikely at the time, she showed enough speed and resilience to indicate that she must have every chance of winning the Oaks.
She’s my choice.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Stinking race….
Form Lines all over the place.
No Bet
Lol! Another benefit?!
Hey Wal – who is that in your profile pic?!
Looks like one that I see of ‘The Ethiopian’ – great shot!
Its Montjeu
As you can see its where his progeny gets his quirks from.
Also have a similar picture of Encosta Da Lago…he seemed to be a right ****** for the Guys that look after him
Sorry why is it "the worst Oaks ever"? Just because it is a wide open race doesnt make it a bad one. The favourite is unbeaten, the second favourite ran very well in the 1,000 g’s from a bad draw and then there is a horse that HRAC regards as one of his most promising Oaks propsects ever and a fast finishing 4th from the Irish 1,000. I think it is an intriguing race and will throw up at least two or three very good animals. The whole excitement of the Derby and Oaks is that it is full of unexposed talent – trial winners that could be superstars or just duds. The time to say a race is bad is surely a month or two down the line when the principals have been given a chance to prove their worth or not.
Inotice that the person who called it the worst Oaks ever last prediction was that it was going to boil down to Wedding March or Pipette. mmmmmm enough said I think.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Agreed Jonibake, you normally wait a few months to see how the form works out, rather than it call it before the race itself! For what its worth I think Akdarena will set a furious pace, she will set out in front, and she will stay all day, she is my selection.
JohnJ
She was certainly very impressive last time JohnJ and seems to be improving quickly. I backed Timepiece at 33-1 before she won her listed race last year so am hoping a change of tactics does the trick with a horse obviously well liked by her trainer but with lots to prove! Both Rumoush and Remember When would be big dangers if they stay but its a big IF and the other one has to be Aviate. Was at York and was very impressed as she travels so easily and quickens. Again trip would be a concern. Can’t have the Jarvis filly at those silly prices I’m afraid. If you want to back a maiden winner Awe Inspiring is surely better value.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Certainly a wide open race, I think Rumoush is potentially very classy, however I just feel that the Bolger filly is going to set a very searching pace, could win it from the front and expose anything that doesn’t stay.
JohnJ
A once-raced horse is 3rd favourite, a horse who posted a RPR of 96 LTO is 2nd favourite, a horse who beat a 81-rated handicapper LTO is favourite, a maiden is 4th favourite, Gertrude Bell has had 5 career starts and hasn’t even reached a RPR of 100, etc. I could go on but this Oaks is truly dire – and that has nothing to do with pocket talk, despite what some conspiracy theorists might think.
- Total Posts 17716
INVESTEC OAKS 2010
Runners
10/1 Akdarena
9/2 Aviate
33/1 Awe Inspiring
66/1 Bikini Babe
40/1 Cabaret
14/1 Ceilidh House
25/1 Champagnelifestyle
14/1 Gertrude Bell
150/1 Lady Lupus
33/1 Marie De Medici
33/1 Meeznah
8/1 Remember When
5/1 Rumoush
7/1 Sajjhaa
16/1 Snow Fairy
7/1 TimepieceHistory
The last 10 Oaks winners in speed ratings is going to be vital when later going on to assess 2010 candidates though the process of elimination, separating those who are out of their depth from those who are viable candidates.
Speed Ratings
99.82 Ramruma (1999)
91.17 Love Divine (2000)
97.48 Imagine (2001)
96.11 Kazzia (2002)
88.57 Casual Look (2003)
100.13 Ouija Board (2004)
91.51 Eswarah (2005)
94.59 Alexandrova (2006)
96.91 Light Shift (2007)
101.42 Look Here (2008)
100.81 Sariska (2009)Average: 96.23
Median : 96.91Ground
The ground aspect will be added to the investigation because I feel not every horse will have their preferred ground leading up to the Oaks or some will be advantaged i.e real soft performers from the quick ground performers and if we can gather a median and average time over the 10 years then form an overall average we can possible envisage what type of ground we’re likely to encounter and to try take away the advantaged performers. Of course this isn’t bomb proof but it’s more pieces to the Oaks puzzle and we can use the overall average to mark up horses too for example; if the 10 year average was 1.00 and a horse had run a speed rating of 89 on ground recording -4.00 we can add 5pts to the speed rating (difference between actual ground and projected ground + speed rating). There will be a table later on that will be rated to the average ground based on their best rating.
-0.12 1999
-1.57 2000
1.63 2001
-3.35 2002
2.23 2003
2.03 2004
1.11 2005
1.45 2006
-0.73 2007
1.03 2008
2.07 2009Average: 0.53
Median : 1.11
Total Average: 0.82Horses
Latest run (Rating) (Ground) (Class Performance)
Akdarena
Navan (92.42) (4.49) (+5.20)
Navan (97.04) (-0.86) (+2.92)Aviate
Ascot (81.50) (1.73) (-5.74)
York (86.08) (4.34) (-3.33)Awe Inspiring
Leopardstown (77.88) (-5.25) (-4.11)
Cork (72.07 (-2.11) (-5.42)Bikini Babe
Sandown (77.24) (1.29) (-14.13)
York (82.08) (4.34) (-7.33)Cabaret
Leopardstown (85.51) (1.58) (-0.96)
York (80.08) (4.34) (-9.33)Ceilidh House
Nottingham (74.60) (-3.17) (-5.99)
Lingfield (86.80) (-0.04) (-2.65)Champagnelifestyle
Newbury (70.93) (2.48) (-18.10)
Chester (87.25) (2.06) (-1.01)Gertrude Bell
Newbury (80.59 (-1.76) (-2.00)
Chester (88.25) (2.06) (+0.01)Lady Lupus
Navan (74.42) (4.49) (-13.20)
Navan (85.04) (-0.86) (-11.92)Marie De Medici
Newmarket (90.32) (0.48) (-1.73)
Newmarket (80.90) (-1.49) (-7.33)Meeznah
Yarmouth (80.47) (0.47) (+3.81)
Newmarket (84.48) (1.01) (+1.54)Remember When
Gowran Park (95.24) (1.06) (-1.23)
Curragh (98.08) (1.67) (+6.32)Rumoush
Newmarket (93.32) (0.48) (+2.73)
Newmarket (89.36) (-1.24) (-3.59)Sajjhaa
Sandown (79.74) (0.97) (-11.44)Snow Fairy
Goodwood (86.66) (0.55) (-3.93)
Goodwood (93.80) (0.96) (+5.56)Timepiece
Newmarket (89.32) (0.48) (+2.73)
Lingfield (89.80) (-0.04) (+1.65)Top Speed Ratings
98.08 Remember When
95.04 Akdarena
93.89 Snow Fairy
93.32 Rumoush
90.32 Marie De Medici
89.80 Timepiece
88.25 Gertrude Bell
87.25 Champagnelifestyle
86.80 Ceilidh House
86.08 Aviate
85.51 Cabaret
85.04 Lady Lupus
84.48 Meeznah
82.08 Bikini Babe
79.74 Sajjhaa
77.88 Awe InspiringAdjusted To Ground
97.23 Remember When (v)
96.08 Akdarena (^)
93.75 Snow Fairy (v)
93.68 Rumoush (^)
90.68 Marie De Medici (^)
89.06 Gertrude Bell (^)
89.06 Champagnelifestyle (^)
88.97 Timepiece (v)
88.59 Aviate (^)
87.66 Ceilidh House (^)
85.98 Lady Lupus (^)
84.46 Cabaret (v)
84.21 Meeznah (v)
80.59 Awe Inspiring (^)
79.62 Sajjhaa (v)
78.56 Bikini Babe (v)The adjustment to ground hasn’t seen any drastic changes to the top of the table but it has made the field tighter and closer together, here are the negatives and positives.
Positives
Aviate up from 10th to 9th
Lady Lupus up from 12th to 11th
Awe Inspiring up from 16th to 14thNegatives
Timepiece dropped from 6th to 8th
Cabaret dropped from 11th to 12thImprovements
This is a new aspect I’ve been trailing out for a few months and it involves the improvement in percentage from the horse’s previous two runs and projecting their potential into becoming a serious candidate for the Oaks or not using the Speed Rating Average of the past 10 winners.
23.06% – Champagnelifestyle
16.08% – Ceilidh House
14.27% – Lady Lupus
9.50% – Gertrude Bell
8.23% – Snow Fairy
6.26% – Bikini Babe
5.61% – Aviate
4.97% – Meeznah
4.96% – Akdarena
2.91% – Remember When *
0.53% – Timepiece
-4.31% – Rumoush
-6.10% – Cabaret
-8.06% – Awe Inspiring
-11.64% – Marie De Medici
-SajjhaaNow we have to assess whether they have showing enough improvement to find future progress to become a potential candidate and we’ll start with the biggest improvers.
*Remember When has already achieved Group 1 status
Improvement NeededOaks Average – 96.23
1.25% – Akdarena
2.49% – Snow Fairy
3.12% – Rumoush
6.54% – Marie De Medici
7.16% – Timepiece
9.04% – Gertrude Bell
10.29% – Champagnelifestyle
10.86% – Ceilidh House
11.79% – Aviate
12.54% – Cabaret
13.16% – Lady Lupus
13.91% – Meeznah
17.24% – Bikini Babe
20.68% – Sajjhaa
23.56% – Awe InspiringPositives
Akdarena has shown 4.96% improvement and only requires 1.25%
Snow Fairy has shown 8.23% improvement and only requires 2.49%
Gertrude Bell has shown 9.50% improvement and only requires 9.02%
Champagnelifestyle has shown 23.06% improvement and only requires 10.29%
Ceilidh House has shown 16.08% improvement and only requires 10.86%
Lady Lupus has shown 14.27% improvement and only requires 13.16%Negatives
Timepiece has shown 0.53% improvement and required 7.16%
Aviate has shown 5.61% improvement and required 11.79%
Cabaret has shown -6.1% improvement and required 12.54%
Meeznah has shown 4.97% improvement and required 13.91%
Bikini Babe has shown 6.26% improvement and required 17.24%
Awe Inspiring has shown -8.06% improvement and required 23.56%
Rumoush has shown -4.31% improvement and required 3.12%
Marie De Medici has shown -11.64% improvement and required 6.54%Elimination
• Timepiece
• Aviate
• Cabaret
• Meeznah
• Bikini Babe
• Awe Inspiring
• Lady Lupus
• Rumoush
• Marie De MediciFinal Cut
Akdarena – This filly has done nothing wrong for Jim Bolger and I have already traded out on her because I don’t feel she can make all in the Oaks which looks to be her most effective riding style, she’ll give anyone whose backed her a run for their money especially turning into the straight were she won’t fail for guts and determination but I expect the classier horses to fight out the finish.
Snow Fairy – I really do like Snow Fairy’s chances, she was a real comfortable winner last time out at Goodwood going away from a very useful filly in 2nd. Ryan Moore’s mount is fairly well hardened carrying 9-7 in a 18 runner nursery at Newmarket coming 2nd, experience of fast, soft and polytrack conditions aswell as having 3 runs in the space of 29 days, she has enjoyed her break and comeback a very decent filly who has undoubted e/w chances.
Gertrude Bell – This could be the start of a really good weekend for John Gosden who has live outsider Azmeel a pricewise selection and a horse flying under the radar which is a bit like Gertrude Bell who has done nothing wrong at all in both her wins showing a real nice improvement between runs doing just enough to get the job done and she could run well for a place although I really haven’t seen enough in her races that grabs me as a real Oaks winner
Champagnelifestyle – This for me is the Oaks bet I am looking at getting involved in, she was a massive improver when running last time out at Chester putting up a decent time and given that rapid improvement it wouldn’t be out of the realms that she could go on win on Friday. There is plenty of stamina in the pedigree and being by Montjeu she doesn’t lack classic credentials were it could be a great weekend for the sire with Jan Vermeer running Saturday. The Barry Hills team are upbeat about her chances saying she has come in her coat and improved which is no surprise given the nature of her rise shown in the investigation and remains a very solid outsider.
Remember When – The class horse in the race and sets a real high standard putting up the best speed rating when improving from her run behind Chinese White although I think the sheer impressive nature of that time means she may just have peaked at the Curragh and it’s hard for a filly to put back to back times like that especially at this level and stepping up in trip.
BetsChampagnelifestyle EW @ 25/1
Snow Fairy EW @ 16/1
Tricast Champagnelifestyle, Snowy Fairy, Akdarena1st – Champagnelifestyle
2nd – Snowy Fairy
3rd – AkdarenaFrom RP 31-May
HIBAAYEB will not run in the Investec Oaks at Epsom on Friday, Godolphin racing manager Simon Crisford has said.
The Saeed Bin Suroor-trained filly finished third in the Group 1 Montjeu Coolmore Prix Saint-Alary at Longchamp last time, and will now be aimed at Royal Ascot.
Crisford said: “Hibaayeb doesn’t run in the Oaks – she’ll be aimed at the Ribblesdale – so we don’t have a runner in the race.”
Godolphin’s absence paves the way for Frankie Dettori to partner once-raced Sajjhaa, owned by Ahmed Al Maktoum and trained by Michael Jarvis, and who has been a significant market mover in recent days.
Sajjhaa was cut again on Monday by several firms , to 6-1, having been double that price a few days earlier.
Backed it months ago, no idea why it wouldn’t run after a really good run in France couple of weeks back. Realised you can’t trust the big stables when backing ante post, well on the flat anyway. The last time I shall back Godolphin or Ballydoyle horses ante post.
A once-raced horse is 3rd favourite, a horse who posted a RPR of 96 LTO is 2nd favourite, a horse who beat a 81-rated handicapper LTO is favourite, a maiden is 4th favourite, Gertrude Bell has had 5 career starts and hasn’t even reached a RPR of 100, etc. I could go on but this Oaks is truly dire – and that has nothing to do with pocket talk, despite what some conspiracy theorists might think.
The top rated horse has a rating of 113, the second 110, the third 107. Looking over the last 5 runnings of the race, the top rated horse going into the race were: –
2005 112
2006 114
2007 112
2008 104
2009 118With the exception of 2009, this years Oaks is on par with the last 5 runnings of the race. I normally wait to see how the form works out after the race has been run before calling it "dire".
JohnJ
Sorry but completely agree with JohnJ – Zarkava you are massaging the figures to suit your argument. We all know that Rumoush’s figure was becasue she ran on the wrong side of the track at Newmarket. Your 81 rated handicapper was a typical Stoute improver who will almost certainly be a decent horse and your maiden was just beaten less than half a length in a classic. The only one I agree with you on is Sajhaa who is a ridiculous price. Anyway – like with all things – time will surely tell.
As for Mr Wilson’s analysis – well very impressive but I lost the will to live reading it! Still I am quite prepared to eat my words if your scientific discoveries prove to be correct!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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