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Any Group 1 with a 6/4 favourite with an OR of 108 isn’t a great Group 1, even if the jolly is a progressive filly.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"To be fair the form from last years race looks shocking in the context of this season – Winter Power, Emaraaty Ana, Dragon Symbol, Suesa, Chil Chil…. I’m not sure any of them have run to above 108 this season. Division has been shocking for a while which is why impressive as Nature Strip was at RA, his efforts do need contextualising.
15 years ago a 2 year old won the race, 15 years prior to that, a 2 year old won this race. Trendy baby.
I’m actually going to wait for any more ease in Royal Aclaim’s price, she has pushed back to around 2/1 now. 3/1 and I’m in for a bit. I thought she walked her last race so I am very interested to see how many gears she has up her sleeve.
Khaadem 10/1
Raasel 14/1
Ebro river 40/1My 3 against the field
Happy to let royal acclaim win at that price
Looks plenty of pace in the race hoping one of these will be finishing strongly
I cant bet in this because TPQ is running
and i cant figure out the probability in her running to 108 in open company getting that weightIll be place laying the fav
From an e/w angle i think dragon symbol & lazuli appeal at 20/1+
The race revolves around the juve for me, if she bombs out, this is as open a race as ive seen and whoever said how bad a group 1 it is, your right, this wont take much winning
Well, I said it’s unusual to have a 6/4 favourite in a Group 1 with an OR of 108.
Since then she’s drifted to 3.5 at Betfair, she’s progressive and as a filly the 108 is effectively 111 with the gender allowance.
I could see her running to about 115 tomorrow, 3lb allowance included, but she’d have to be 3/1 plus before I considered her a fair price.
What could beat her?
Winter Power won it last year, but has been beyond dire this year.
Emaraaty Ana was runner up last year, but hasn’t been much better, though the July Cup run hinted at a return to form.
Highfield Princess is in the form of her life, but drops 330yds in trip for what is a fast five.
Khaadem won well over Goodwood’s easy five, but this is tougher.
The Platinum Queen is a juvenile mystery wrapped in a 2yo conundrum.
Others have chances in a race which, were it a handicap and you ignored weight-for-age, an 11lb weight range would cover just about the entire 14-runner field.
That’s just over three lengths.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I just had a look at Royal Aclaim’s last race. She idles a bit when asked to go on but the way she traveled was exquisite. I think and hope we could see something a bit special here. I’ll bide my time with the market before I place any bet.
Stepping up from a listed race to a group 1 would normally be almost impossible
But this is a group 1 in name only, its more of a group 3 really
Unusual is putting it politely, on or’s currently its horrendous, as bad as it gets for a group 1 and if it carried on attracting these ratings itt’l be two more renewals from a group2 race
Royal Aclaim was injured for a year after her debut so she not had the usual opportunities to get her rating higher to this point. And a horse being favourite for having the potential of being better than more exposed runners is nothing unusual either. All being well she proves she is as good as the trainer thinks she is.
The Nunthorpe (or William Hill Sprint Championship, as it was at the time) only became a Group One race in 1984.
Agree fully with Mike on the points he makes in the previous post: an OR can only reflect what a horse has done to date and any horse can potentially better its rating given optimum conditions and/or stiffer competition. And potential is often preferred to proven ability these days, not just in betting markets but also football players, to take another example.
I think it’s safe to say there’s nothing in the race of the quality of Dayjur.
Two lengths covered the first six home in the King George Stakes over the rapid five at Goodwood and, unless Royal Aclaim has a lot more in the locker, it could be the same here.
The pecking order on OR with the gender allowance added on –
Highfield Princess 115
Winter Power 114
Flotus 114
Emaraaty Ana 113
Royal Aclaim 111
Khaadem 110
Acclamation Express 110
Raasel 109
Lazuli 109
The Platinum Queen 109
Dragon Symbol 109
Ebro River 107
New York City 105
Clarendon House 105
Ainsdale 104I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Not in open class contests glad, theres usually always one yes, but on paper this is as poor as it gets for a G1
And yes mike, in an open company group 1 its very unusual to be rated 108 and a short enough priced favourite
Almost unheard of actually
It’s certainly a fascinating contest nonetheless.
As Gladders says, we live in an “it’s better to travel than arrive” world and tbh racing has ever been thus.
The market loves an unlucky loser even more than an exposed winner sometimes, ditto that horse that’s winning easily and “could be anything.”
In a field of decent enough, but mostly exposed, sprinters, Royal Aclaim has to be favourite as she doesn’t have that much to find – even if the others run to their best – and is on an upward curve.
But 6/4 when I first posted seemed very short to me, she’s now 3.8 at Betfair and that seems about the right price.
If she went over 3/1, I’d have to think about having a saver (I’ve backed Winter Power and Emaraaty Ana) on her.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“on paper this is as poor as it gets for a G1”
Oh, I agree completely on that front. But something could leave all known form behind and blow the opposition out of the water.
You never know. 🤷♂️
I’ve a feeling Winter Power will bounce back following a previously underwhelming season. Easterby was interviewed about her at Ripon last week and was quite bullish that she’s back to her best.
“15 years ago a 2 year old won the race, 15 years prior to that, a 2 year old won this race. Trendy baby.”
That’ll do me.
KHAADEM looks highly progressive and along with the featherweight under Hollie Doyle are my two picks for the race. Both to win.
Three two year old winners at 15 year intervals would be something else, a 45 year trend in the making, and would make the tiny price a little more bearable. Should be 18/1 really.
The PLATINUM QUEEN
Win
KHAADEM
Win
and i cant figure out the probability in her running to 108 in open company getting that weight
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