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i took the 7s (now between 7/2 and 6s) on offer about Shaneshill immediately after the race, had a nice ew bet.
If you consider every horse under best priced under 20/1 below and their likely target
Shaneshill 6s (will certainly be this race)
Sizing John 12s (failure to beat douvan may see him rerouted here, behind shaneshills in supreme)
More of that 12s (RSA)
Vaniteux 12s (arkle)
Douvan 12s (arkle)
Killutagh vic 14s (RSA, maybe here)
L’Ami serge 16s (arkle)
Arctic fire 16s (stupid even quoting him)
Tea for two 16s (rsa)
Garde La Victoire 16s (arkle or here)
Bitofapuzzle 16s (rsa or here)A lot of the horses at the top end of the betting to my eye seem better suited and potentially aimed at other races.
Shaneshill will go here, has rock solid hurdle form (2nd in the supreme behind douvan), has the right blend between stamina and speed.I think L’Ami Serge is a nice each way bet for the Arkle – ran well in terrible conditions and will improve a ton. Slightly unfortunate in the Supreme and bred to be better over fences.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see More Of That in the 2.5 miler.
My three hopes for the big novice chases were out since Christmas, and I was delighted with two of them. No More Heroes didn’t face much in the three miler at Leopardstown but he continues to impress with his jumping and will surely be in the shake up come March, all going well between now and then.
Shaneshill made a jolting error two out yesterday but still came away nicely from Sizing Codelco and is becoming one of my favourites. He has always shown a great attitude and would have been a comfortable winner of a Supreme but for bumping into Douvan. He’s looked by far the best contender for the JLT thus far imo, and of all the current favourites for Cheltenham, he is the one who looks the best value to me.
My Arkle hope, Sizing John, got skull-dragged around Leopardstown by Douvan who was mightily impressive. They may decide to step Sizing John up in trip after that and you wouldn’t blame them, but I’d fancy Shaneshill to confirm his hurdles superiority over him over 2m 4f.
Glad to see Mullins confirm in today’s stable tour that chasing is the plan for Shaneshill. The 2m 4f novice division looks there for the taking and this looks the stand out contender on hurdles form. He ran a super race in the Supreme before hammering Outlander at Fairyhouse – was probably over the top and racing over a trip that stretched him when third at Punchestown on his last start. 12/1 has been taken.
I do like that Tommy,this horse looks all over a JLT horse now,well spotted.I put him in my 10 to follow expecting him to be primed for this at Cheltenham.What do you think of ‘Black Hercules’ for the 4 miler?
I think L’Ami Serge is a nice each way bet for the Arkle – ran well in terrible conditions and will improve a ton. Slightly unfortunate in the Supreme and bred to be better over fences.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see More Of That in the 2.5 miler.
Suspect Henderson will split L’Ami Surge and Vaniteaux Mark, one in the Arkle and one in JLT. Which one goes for which race?
So doing quarter odds a place doesn’t seem right to me when it’s not NRNB.More Of That is a stayer. Probably RSA, if another race – Gold Cup.
Value Is EverythingLami serge and vaniteux different owners. Henderson said arkle before and after race. Also lami serge owners have already confirmed bristol de mai is very likely to run in the jlt , and there other chaser with henderson vyta du roc started over 2m1 and henderson says he runs over 2m3 at Doncaster on friday. So he’s also likely to go jlt at the festival.
I’d be 98% sure lami serge arkle
Glad to see Mullins confirm in today’s stable tour that chasing is the plan for Shaneshill. The 2m 4f novice division looks there for the taking and this looks the stand out contender on hurdles form. He ran a super race in the Supreme before hammering Outlander at Fairyhouse – was probably over the top and racing over a trip that stretched him when third at Punchestown on his last start. 12/1 has been taken.
I do like that Tommy,this horse looks all over a JLT horse now,well spotted.I put him in my 10 to follow expecting him to be primed for this at Cheltenham.What do you think of ‘Black Hercules’ for the 4 miler?
I haven’t the slightest idea what they’ll send here, but Black Hercules is surely high on Patrick’s wishlist! Given how sparingly he was campaigned last season, you’d wonder if all was well! Arbre De Vie is a horse who really impressed me last season but he’s yet to run this time around. He’d interest me.
Totally agree with the chances of Black Hercules in The 4 Miler, but a horse I could see taking his chance in it, and running very well, is Upswing.
Jonjo’s got concerns over the ground for Saturdays Welsh National, where he’s joint favourite, but if he does run well, then with stamina assured, he’s got to be worth a go, especially from connections who like to target the race.
I think L’Ami Serge is a nice each way bet for the Arkle – ran well in terrible conditions and will improve a ton. Slightly unfortunate in the Supreme and bred to be better over fences.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see More Of That in the 2.5 miler.
Suspect Henderson will split L’Ami Surge and Vaniteaux Mark, one in the Arkle and one in JLT. Which one goes for which race?
So doing quarter odds a place doesn’t seem right to me when it’s not NRNB.More Of That is a stayer. Probably RSA, if another race – Gold Cup.
I’m expecting LAS to be in the Arkle. As for More Of That he’s been winning well over shorter and doesn’t lack gears. A tough RSA can often result in injuries and I wouldn’t be running MOT in one unless it was Good ground.
I think L’Ami Serge is a nice each way bet for the Arkle – ran well in terrible conditions and will improve a ton. Slightly unfortunate in the Supreme and bred to be better over fences.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see More Of That in the 2.5 miler.
Suspect Henderson will split L’Ami Surge and Vaniteaux Mark, one in the Arkle and one in JLT. Which one goes for which race?
So doing quarter odds a place doesn’t seem right to me when it’s not NRNB.More Of That is a stayer. Probably RSA, if another race – Gold Cup.
I’m expecting LAS to be in the Arkle. As for More Of That he’s been winning well over shorter and doesn’t lack gears. A tough RSA can often result in injuries and I wouldn’t be running MOT in one unless it was Good ground.
More Of That can win at lesser distances because of his class. But by quite a way his best form is the 3m World Hurdle. Can’t see any evidence of the RSA being any more servere than any other. In the last 10 years winners have included:
Trabolgan – went on to win the Hennessey.
Denman – ’nuff said.
Alberta’s Run – multiple Festival winner.
Bobs Worth – Hennessey and Gold Cup.
Lord Windermere – Gold Cup.
Don Poli – Lexus and…Not a bad record.
There’s been a few never been the same since, but vast majority have run afterwards.
Value Is EverythingIv noticed abre de vie entered up in a few novice chases, so iv backed at 55.0 for jlt and 82.0 for the rsa.
Hes a very lightly raced horse and has some good form over hurdles. Most people wouldn’t have nice him in the albert bartlett but he wasn’t far behind the first 3, and he ran a very good race at the punchestown festival of top weight in a handicap.
I will be interested to see if he takes to fences.Glad to see Mullins confirm in today’s stable tour that chasing is the plan for Shaneshill. The 2m 4f novice division looks there for the taking and this looks the stand out contender on hurdles form. He ran a super race in the Supreme before hammering Outlander at Fairyhouse – was probably over the top and racing over a trip that stretched him when third at Punchestown on his last start. 12/1 has been taken.
I do like that Tommy,this horse looks all over a JLT horse now,well spotted.I put him in my 10 to follow expecting him to be primed for this at Cheltenham.What do you think of ‘Black Hercules’ for the 4 miler?
Followed you in at 10/1 Gord, hopefully a good performance in a few minutes.
Serious performance by black Hercules. Jumped brilliantly and won comfortably with plenty left in the tank. Pont Alexander was as good as I expected, roi de franc was just better.
Monksland beat RDF comfortably and No more heroes beat Monksland comfortably, it doesn’t work out that easily too often but everything pointing towards No More heroes being the best Irish Novice although Black Hercules impressed there i’d say he could be 4miler bound. RSA between More of that and No more heroes it would seem barring a curveball.
Wexford.
Might impressed too with black hercules on at nice prices for the rsa.
No matter what anyone says I can’t have him in anyway going for the 4 miler.Black hercules
“I don’t think that was his true running at Cheltenham last year. He’ll go with a good chance and I’m sure Ruby (Walsh) will be taking him back off me. He was very good today – just what you wanted to see.”
Pont
As expected pont alexandre was shown not to be the rsa winner today. No idea where he will be seen at the festival if he makes it thereRois de franc
I he’s 4 miler bound, he might be my play when nrnbI can’t fancy Black Hercules for the RSA. I don’t think he is good enough at the highest level.
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