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Pushing my luck betting midweek two days in a row, but thought after yesterday, I’d crack on.
I quite like the idea of Lord Napier for Ayr, but as my shortlist is fairly big there, he probably wouldn’t be top of it. I’m hopeful that that isn’t the worse shout though, and hopefully he can advertise his claims at Newbury today.
Great card at Musselburgh, and notebook horse Off The Beat has been a bit disappointing since I first put him up. I’m fairly certain that he’s better than that, and I think today will be the day.
In the next, I don’t know too much about the jock, but I’m hopeful of a good run from Hawthorn Cottage. She’s ran well without impressing too much lately, but the jocks claim, and new headgear might be key here.
1405 Newbury – Lord Napier 12’s
1540 Musselburgh – Off The Beat 8’s
1610 Musselburgh – Hawthorn Cottage 13-2Two seconds today, but both comfortably beaten. Off The Beat was slightly bigger bet then man the other pair, so I took that back in running. Hawthorn I just let ride. As for Lord Napier, even if I wanted my cash back, it never looked likely.
Quiet enough Saturday for me.
I’m with King Ottokar in The Lincoln. He’s definitely better than a handicapper, but I’m wary of the draw and the weather. There’s also the worry about his string of “hard luck stories”, but hopefully he’s not a “nearly” horse, and I’m happy with the price.
Edit
Market looks ominous for King Ottokar, and wouldn’t be a massive shock to me if he’s pulled.
He’s off a long layoff, doesn’t fit the profile of this, and he’s too old, but I’m going with Librisa Breeze as backup here. He shouldn’t have a look in, but at his best, which admittedly is a fair bit back now, he was very good. Pie in the sky stuff no doubt, but I’ve bet him 80’s, and will also bet him to the seven places. Non Runner
The plan was to swerve Chiefofchiefs this weekend, but he’s ran well fresh before, and ran a cracker at Listed Level when last seen here, so he had to be worth a crack.
Only a couple over the jumps. At Newbury, I’ve went with Valadom. His good form is probably a minus, as he’s up another couple of pounds for finishing second last time. I’m expecting him to run well without winning. Should give me a good spin though out the front.
At Kelso, one last try with Donna’s Diamond. He looked stiff as a board in The Rendlesham, but it’s only a year since he was narrowly beaten by Emitom, and they’re persevering. I think it’s worth noting that he got an entry for The Stayers, and he might just have one last big run in him. Oakley Brown takes five off, and he’s down almost a stone in the weights in the last year. I’ve taken 33’s, but I’m hoping to beat that.
1405 Kelso – Donna’s Diamond 33’s EW 4pls
1420 Newbury – Valadom 8’s
Lincoln – King Ottokar 20’s EW 5pls
Lincoln – Librisa Breeze 80’s/EW 7pls
Cammidge – Chiefofchiefs 14’sVery run of the mill day.
Biggest disappointment was obviously King Ottokar. It’s easy to blame the ground, but no having that, he just wasn’t good enough.
Valadom was much better, and it went pretty much like I thought it would, third time I’ve made a profit in running from him like that, and he ran a blinder.
I only bet Donna’s Diamond because he was so stiff the last time, that they must have been persevering with him for a reason. Sadly no, completely gone, and very pleased to say that he was retired immediately after the race. Right decision, and glad he got out in one piece.
That leaves me with Chiefofchiefs. He met traffic problems, I’ll leave it at that. Sigh.
Some very decent racing Sunday, and taking a chance with a few that might be better left….
Ascot
Put Herbiers up earlier in the thread, and he got me the EW Money at 50’s. I’ve left him since then, but he’s acquitted himself well. He must have a chance here, and he’s a backable price.It’s been great to a resurgent Awake At Midnight lately, but for all he looks to have a live chance, he’s just a bit short for me.
The Veterans Chase has the usual suspects, but I’m going out on a limb with Outlander. He was wrongly labelled as “gone” when sold by Gigginstown, and I thought he was a surprise sale. He had been running to an acceptable standard until then. I gave him a good word before the 2019 National, as I thought he was wrongly being pigeonholed alongside Don Poli (who was gone), and he ran a solid race. Of course he could be tailed off here, and I’m certainly more concerned by his layoff than his form, but at the big prices, he’s worth risking. Royal Vacation is also worth considering. I’ll probably make him just a saver, as I think he might be given a try at The Bet365 Gold Cup.
Carlisle
I can just pitch Halcyon Days and Caventara in together. Both bitterly disappointing this season, but these are decent prizes, and both thrown in on best form. Halcyon Days has ran well here before, and no surprise if this has been the plan for Caventara.Limerick
In the opener, I’m going with John Adams. He really caught my eye last time at Punchestown. I’m not saying he’ll progress too far, but he should have some success on that showing, and though maybe one for a handicap, he’s a decent price.Midnight Maestro is as good as he ever was, and looks to have every chance here, while this looks the ideal time for my annual bet on Powersbomb.
Naas
Forest of Dreams was my early shout for a 2yo to watch last year, but as per, he’s back out in a handicap. Far too short for me, but possibly not one to give up on.Numerian returns in the race he won last year. Problem I have here is Saltonstall, who is still relatively low profile, for all he’s very good. I’ll have to bet Numerian, but not brimming with confidence.
In the 1635, Miss March is an enormous price, and I’ll be watching her progress closely.
For the fourth time this thread, I stupidly forgot to put up a forecast on Saturday, and it of course came in. On that front, a recovery mission, and I’ll definitely be doing forecasts with a few of them.
Only bet Halcyon Days so far, as he’s going blue, but I’ll add prices as I go. A very motley crew this, and enough bets for one days racing. Safe to say I’ll lay where I can.
1525 Naas – Numerian 6’s
1530 Carlisle – Halcyon Days 18’s EW 4pls
1555 Ascot – Outlander 20’s
1650 Limerick – Midnight Maestro 4’s
1715 Carlisle – Caventara 14’sCut down on the bets, can’t justify that many. I’ll just bet John Adams and Herbiers in running if I like what I see.
1525 Naas
Numerian, Saltonstall
50p Reverse Forecast-£200.73
Much more like it today.
First success was leaving John Adams alone, and that was like a win, as he never looked likely.
Herbiers then kicked things off, and he looked likely the whole way, and I took 10’s in running. He’s just a very promising young horse, and I’ll be following him closely. I could have got 16’s easily most of the day (9’s when I put him up), but I’m not worried about that, and I think it’s a common sense approach, as seen with John Adams.
I love old Halcyon Days, and he did what he did best, bowling along at Carlisle. He came home at 22’s, but I was stuck with 18’s, but hardly complaining obviously.
Midnight Maestro topped the day off. I’d have had him Fav here, but I had a fair old swing at him with the two other winners in the bag, and the 17-2 was incredible. A completely reformed character, loved that.
Very good day, and I’d love to go back in tomorrow, but can’t find much at all.
Quiet week there, and dodged a bullet today, as it would have been three losers on the AW.
Plenty of fancies tomorrow, but still not sure how to approach it.
Fairyhouse
Rybo Hurdle. As per the big race thread, already with Thosedaysaregone, and he’s my main fancy, but I’ve covered Uradel, and doing the same with Hearts are Trumps.A Listed Mares Flat Race wouldn’t be my usual port of call, but in the 1640, I could make a case for Limerick Lace. She’s up against some decent sorts themselves, but 11-2 is quite appealing.
Carlisle
Western Miller was the rag that I wasted a few quid on in The Grand Annual. This is much more like it.
Down in class, given a proper chance by the handicapper, and he’s back to his last winning mark. He’s also six pounds below the mark when he was second to Rouge Vif at Cheltenham, and he’s looking worth a try here at a fair enough price.Cork
Grammata runs in the 1545, and she was an early notebook horse of mine last year, after a great run in The Queen Mary. She didn’t dazzle me too much as the season went on, but she did manage a win at the tail end. I’ve a feeling she’s not one to give up on this year, and she’ll remain on the radar alright. There are certainly ground concerns tomorrow, but that jump from the Group 2 Queen Mary, to her Handicap Debut tomorrow had me expecting a fairly short price, but the I took 14’s early, and I thought that was really fair.Haydock
In the Challenger Stayers, I’m considering Kansas City Chief again. He’s not been a profitable one to follow, but enough going for him at a price, and if I do bet him, it’ll probably be for the last time.In the 1550, she’s short enough, and usually finds a way to get beat, but Northern Beau is another one I’m considering.
Musselburgh
Justanotherbottle is a proper regular on these threads, and he looks set for a big run tomorrow, but I keep going back to old Caspian Prince too. Undecided.Newton Abbot
Sizing Codelco was much better last time, but he’s became unreliable, and I don’t trust him to repeat it. Maybe one for a chance if any earlier luck. A repeat of that Newbury run should be good enough, but will he repeat it?1545 Cork – Grammata 14’s
Rybo Hurdle – Thosedaysaregone 12’s
Rybo Hurdle – Hearts are Trumps EW 6pls
Rybo Hurdle – Uradel 22’s EW 6plsVery happy with Hearts Are Trumps today. It was easily my biggest betting race of the day, and I took the 25’s this morning just as the win part, which was a bonus. Main chunk of the bet was at 12’s EW, but after the insane drift on Thosedaysaregone, Hearts are Trumps was the bigger bet.
As for Thosedaysaregone. Insane drift. Interesting ride. Punchestown springs to mind, or even the 2 Mile Handicap at Aintree next week, but he surely gets an entry in The Galway Hurdle, that looks the obvious target.
Cracking cards at Cork and Fairyhouse today.
Fairyhouse
1420
She’s Commanche was the one that got away a few weeks back. Incredible progress this season, and I’m no sure she’s finished. Big price here, but can’t ignore her again.At a huge price is Buck Rogers. Hardly straightforward, and could hurdle better, but with two wins already this year, including the defeat of a subsequent impressive winner, he must have an EW chance. Opening mark seems fair to me.
1450
Thedevilscoachman is a horse who promises plenty. I think he could be top drawer, and he’s hard to beat here. Definitely keeping tabs on him for next year.The one who interests me here though is Call Me Lyreen. Not 100% convinced I’m betting him, but 12’s looks a fair EW price. Think he could be an interesting chaser in time.
1550
I’m really impressed by what I’ve seen with Grand Paradis. He’s another for next year, but I’m undecided as to where I think he’ll go. I think he’s a chaser, possibly an NH Chase candidate, but equally, I can see him being a Stayers Hurdle horse. Either way, very promising, albeit too short for me today.At a bigger price, I think Decimation could be underrated here.
1625
Recent Revelations back on my radar. His jumping hasn’t been great, but this looks his best opportunity over fences. Stablemate Aramax is getting considered too, but it’s a fairly busy day.1700
Belter of a renewal, and desperate to bet Andy Dufresne, but he’s short enough. I’m still hopeful he can land a few big pots, and he remains one with potential.I’ve been watching January Jets progress, and he’s not one to write off at a price, but I’m giving Janidil another go. Abysmal the last twice, but if the Naas run was his true self, then 13’s is big. Worth the risk.
Cork
1530
Tight wee race, but I’m no convinced Dromore Lad should be the outsider here. Ran very well last week over hurdles, and bagged The Cork National here in November. Well worth a pop.1605
De Name Escapes Me is a cracking sort. Winner of The November Handicap at Naas, and decent third behind Flooring Porter and The Bosses Oscar this term. Looks a big player at a fair price.1635
The Gatechecker is another Cork National winner, and though easy to pick holes in him, I can see him springing a shock. I’m hoping to get a lot bigger than current 14’s.Lot of bets today, and usual pressure, so be laying off where possible.
1420 Fairyhouse – She’s Commanche 14’s
1420 Fairyhouse – Buck Rogers EW 6pls
1530 Cork – Dromore Lad 12’s
1605 Cork – De Name Escapes Me 8’s
1625 Fairyhouse – Recent Revelations 12’s
1635 Cork – The Gatechecker
1700 Fairyhouse – Janidil 13’sGreat stuff with Janadil Bobby, I joined you with a small bet after reading your post
Thanks all, really happy with him. Knew he had that in him. Got to be more to come surely?
Good few losers the last couple of days, with some shocking runs in there, and very grateful for both Hearts are Trumps, and Janidil, keeping me well ahead over a very tough weekend.
Apart from Janidil, De Name Escapes Me, was a small profit in running, but everything else ran really poorly.
Pressure off a wee bit then tomorrow, and I can afford to just enjoy it.
I’ll keep it strictly to Fairyhouse.
Irish National
The Irish National has been a tricky Antepost race for me. Not concerned with the non runners with Koshari or Tiger Roll, they were small bets, but much more concerned that I’m left with a fairly hefty bet on Ten Ten. The plan was always to lay off a wee bit in the lead up. I just thought he’d be subject to a decent gamble. Not went to plan though, and he’s available at 33’s tonight. The silver lining is that if he wins, it’ll be a hefty old return, but that looks highly unlikely right now. I’ll obviously try to get the stake back in running. I’ll still top up on him beforehand though, as I hate to have a horse go off at bigger prices than I went for Antepost.As for the rest, well it’s just a tremendous field. Don’t know where to start really.
Along with Latest Exhibition, Escaria Ten is going to be the best of this lot I’m sure. He’s clearly very good. Strangely though, I’ll sit him out. This wouldn’t be their MO, if he’s going to be the horse I think he is, though Heskin making the journey over is interesting. Having bet him at 100’s for The Gold Cup, I obviously won’t be overly upset at missing him tomorrow. If this is the plan tomorrow, then his price is just insane.
I’ve went with Off You Go and Jerrysback in the end.
As per big race thread, it was always the plan to bet Off You Go, and he might just be underrated on his supposed stamina doubts. Put him up as one to follow on here a few months back, and I’ll stay loyal.
Jerrysback is initially harder to recommend, but didn’t realise he lost a shoe last time, and that is crucial, as his previous run was highly encouraging. No stamina doubts, and interesting that he’s making the journey across. Jody McGarvey takes the ride, and he’ll be riding with confidence after his big day today.
Rest of Card
In the 1405, I’m considering Fighting Fit. I’m just wary having got stung with She’s Commanche today, another who had rocketed up the weights. Definitely betting Jon Ess. Put him up early on in the thread last summer, and for the majority of the thread, I’d say he was my worst selection. He was just brutal. Recently though, Jenkins and Amaulino have taken that mantle away from him, and I’m willing to give him a chance here. He’s clearly still got a big run in him, loads to take from his Leopardstown run, and he should go on this faster surface. I’m quite keen on him EWIn the 1515, I’ll give Ilikedwayurthinkin another chance. Only minor signs of promise over fences, and a return to hurdles shouldn’t be a problem. He’s probably miles ahead of his mark over both, and he’s got to have a live chance here. Non Runner
The 1550 is a hard race to read. For a Grade 2, I don’t think there’s any real superstars in there, so Hannon the choice at a very big looking 40’s. Highly regarded in his younger days, and he’s generally held his form. Happy enough with his run at Leopardstown, and this looks a good opportunity for him. Non Runner
1629z I expected more of Annamix this year, but he’s been fairly disappointing, and he was lifeless last time. Dangerous to write off from this yard though, and I’ve bet him as, one, the market support is maybe of note, and two, looking at this race again, it looks winnable. He really does have to show some big improvement though.
In the 1740, I’m with the quirky Foxy Jacks. You just don’t know what you’re going to get with him, but much better last time, and I’d argue that he’s now looking well treated.
1405 – Jon Ess 16’s
1620 – Annamix 14’s
Irish National – Ten Ten 33’s/EW 7pls
Irish National – Jerrysback 33’s EW 7pls
Irish National – Off You Go 22’s
1740 – Foxy Jacks 16’s
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