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Nina Carberry On Bumper Favourites

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  • #12320
    stilvi
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    • Total Posts 4515

    Anyone got any stats on this? It is often stated that she is someone to have on your side in bumpers but I have a feeling her recent stats are probably not that brilliant. Partnered the beaten favourite in the last at Kilbeggan who ran an atrocious race. Very interesting betting race with the Mullins newcomer who had been weak in the market all day being very well supported just before the off. You have to ask the question did someone know something?

    #243086
    laypro
    Member
    • Total Posts 3

    I suspect that the money was that of the mullins yard a well kept secret and a nice little earner for them. As for nina she is a very good female jockey probaly the best i have seen.

    #243108
    stilvi
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    • Total Posts 4515

    I have no argument with her being considered a good female jockey I just wonder if the stats suggest punters should be falling over themselves to back her at short prices in these type of races. As for a shrewd gamble it is one thing to know your horse is going to run well it is another to ‘guess’ the favourite is going to run a stinker.

    Bit of a role reversal in the bumper at Downpatrick with the Mullins yard represented by another newcomer by Milan but this time it is the short priced favourite and Nina Carberry is on the second favourite.

    #243144
    Imperial Call
    Member
    • Total Posts 2184

    I wouldn’t read too much into these low grade bumpers at the gaff tracks during the summer. Very few of the big yards would be introducing good young horses at the likes of Kilbeggan, Galway, Roscommon, Sligo etc. A lot of Nina’s rides in these races will go off overbet and at short prices because Nina is one of the more recognisable amateurs with the casual punter.

    Once Noel Meade starts bringing out his better horses in October, November and early December, Nina will be banging in the bumper winners.

    #243153
    Irish Stamp
    Member
    • Total Posts 3177

    Meade’s bumper horses last season were very poor which will certainly effect her stats. Picking up the odd ride here and there in the last at Wexford, Ballinrobe etc. won’t help the figures either, she rides her fair share but at the prices they go off at you’d need a 1 in 3 strike-rate to break even.

    Now her P & L to level stakes in XC races would be more like it :wink:
    I’m sure half the time Enda’s instructions are "he knows the way just press the button when you see the finish line" :lol:

    #243166
    Imperial Call
    Member
    • Total Posts 2184

    I don’t really think Noel had a particularly bad crop of bumper horses last year IS. I think his lower than normal strike-rate was more down to the exceptional year that the Mullins yard had. There was a three or four week period before Cheltenham when Willie had the winner of nearly every bumper run in Ireland. Nina was chasing home Patrick in a lot of them races if my memory serves me.

    #243186
    wallace-no7
    Member
    • Total Posts 1511

    I dont remember Nina Riding many bumper winners last year.

    Her time has passed….Mullins will absoutely dominate for the next 5 years at least….the amount of top owners that are willing to spend fortunes (for casual owners) to get horses in his yard. He have a whole new batch again of 50-60 animals.

    Mullins stable is a gambling stable….they have made fortunes on there bumpers animals….afterall they always go off favorite and around even money and are always backed heavily.

    Its very exciting for Patrick….he is basically on a steering job every day.

    Cant see this changing anytime soon other than for Weld/Kiely/Griffin talking a few scalps here and there

    #243200
    Mounty
    Member
    • Total Posts 455

    Miss N Carberry on bumper (clear) favs in Ireland before today…

    64 winners from 177 runners (36.2%)
    +£0.80 to £1 level stake

    Would show a loss if joint or co-favs included

    For Noel Meade only..

    36/82
    +£19.09

    #243215
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4515

    Thanks for the stats, possibly my thoughts have been clouded by recent history which I am guessing has been less profitable.

    Today’s bumper other than the switch of first and second favourites was almost a copy of yesterday. A race which looked a match between a Mullins newcomer and a Nina Carberry mount. The Mullins horse drifts out to the longest price it has been all day and then is supported just before the off. Nina Carberry’s mount runs no race whatsoever and Mullins horse wins comfortably. I would have thought it would at least be worth investigating to see if this scenario has happened before – as I said it is one thing to expect a good run from a particular horse it is another to ‘guess’ the chief opposition is not going to turn up. Both times the Carberry mount has made the market for the winner and given her following probably made sure it wasn’t going to drift and cause the favourite to shorten.

    #243218
    Goldikova
    Member
    • Total Posts 1537

    I had a look at the card for that race, but had no time to study it as the race was 10 mins away. I picked out the Noel Meade horse, and the W Mullins one. I went to check the odds as it was only sp up until about 10 mins before the race. Meade’s horse was evens, and the Mullins one was 9/2. I thought to myself that i will take the favourite, as there’s no way a useful Mullins runner would be 9/2. Low and behold the odds went right down a few minutes before they ran. As soon as i saw it fall very quickly, close to off time, i knew i was onto a loser.

    #244528
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4515

    Not sure how the betting went this time but yesterday at Roscommon Nina got the hat trick up on 6/5 shot Dumitas.

    #246900
    ratpack
    Member
    • Total Posts 96

    Nina partnered another winner from Charlie Swan on Sunday on Start Me Up in the winners bumper in Galway. She has ridden 7 bumper winners for the yard this season and has a 58% strike rate showing a LSP of +19.28.

    Overall this season she’s ridden 19 bumper winners from 57 starts (33%)and the amount of winners outside of her retained stable is testament to her abilities and how superior she is to the likes of any other amateur riding in Ireland.

    She is a throw back to the days of Philip Fenton and Ted Walsh who were amateurs only in name riding in bumpers.

    #246904
    Ten Up
    Member
    • Total Posts 17

    Ratpack is spot on. Wallace-no 7 saying her time has passed just shows how out of touch you are. Nina is a class act and is here to stay. She is as good as ANY of the blokes and better than most of them. She will end up a legend in the game (Slowly getting there already). As regards Ted we are talking another solar system. You’ll never see a better amateur than Ted Walsh in a bumper. Better than any professional alive. His strike rate was unreal. Best amateur jock of all time for me and would be ahead of 90% of the professional ones. A bumper at Leopardstown in the 70s and the 80s? Give Ted a 3 legged donkey and he’d almost get it home. A genuine legend in the saddle.

    #246907
    stilvi
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    • Total Posts 4515

    Did they have whip guidelines when Ted was riding?

    #246908
    wallace-no7
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    • Total Posts 1511

    Nina isnt a bad jockey in fact she is top class but she doesnt have the ammo than Mullins has. There is no a chance she will win as many bumpers as she used to its just not possible

    #246913
    yeats
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    • Total Posts 3140

    Why do you need stats to tell you if someones a good rider (even if that was the case) what’s wrong with your eyes? :lol:

    #246914
    Ten Up
    Member
    • Total Posts 17

    Nobody said anything about winning as many bumpers as she used to Wallace (Altho that will come again for sure as she is destined for greatness). It was your inane comment of "Her time has passed". That’s just pure nonsense.

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