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True. It’s hard to see Pakistan, India or even South Africa doing it.
<br>South africa are the least strong of those three sides
Engalnd have played badly (and even then not for 3 1/2 days) rather than anything earth shattering from Australia
Openers arent performing. only two batsmen (ponting and Hussey) are reliably in the runs. Apart from Warne, the bowling is very in and out with Mcgrath slowing down badly and lee guileless as ever. Clark’s ok though
This is not an unbeatable team…
England had a mad moment but everyteam has that (australia too…)
I think its the context that matters. If Mordin’s speed figures allow for the fact that KS was eased down then fair enough. If they don’t then I think to blindly go with the figures and ignore the way they were achieved is an inadequate way of using figures. Beyer never advocated that and, as far as I remember in Mordin on Time, neither did the man himself. In fact, every author I’ve ever read on the subject has included as an essential part of their approach, the importance of looking at how the figure was achieved.
Surely when you use speed figures, you do more than read down a list and underline the biggest number?
Quote: from stevedvg on 1:09 pm on Dec. 7, 2006[br]
And thinking about it, KS hasn’t beaten Man Utd at Old Trafford or Australia in the Ashes either
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LMAO.
Speed figures :bore:  .
Have I missed the point of horse racing or something? Maybe I’m being naive here but I always thought horse racing was about horses winning races not trying to break landspeed records. ÂÂÂ
I would agree with Steve that speed figures can be used to identify a false favourite. But in this particular case, KS is clearly an improver in the early stages of his career, who thrashed a supposedly faster rival out of sight, easing down in the process, with no apparent excuses for that rival. That would at least cause me to question whether KS might be capable of producing even better speed figures than BoS even though he hasn’t yet (because he hasn’t needed to).
Then again, I am far from an expert in speed figures so would readily concede my opinion in these matters may not be as valid as some
Comparing Mordin’s figures with Topspeed, it occurs to me that Mordin might be adjusting more for performances in slow conditions than Topspeed. The indirect effect of this is to give a higher rating to the winners of soft-ground races run in Ireland than the Racing Post would give. <br>
I don’t think anyone will be beating Australia in the <br>Ashes for at least 18 months …
True. It’s hard to see Pakistan, India or even South Africa doing it.
C’mon Clivex, think about it….
Sorry, just me being a smart-arse. :biggrin:
Mike
Anyone else bemused by Mordin’s ravings about Mid Dancer?
I have some difficulty with the idea he achieved some kind of remarkable time whilst contriving to have six of his seven opponents finish within 14 lengths on heavy ground.
I must admit when I first read Nick Mordin – thought he was a genius – however the more i read from him, the more I realized he can be equally as stupid as brilliant. His opinions carry so much conviction that when they come off they look brilliant eg his winner in this yrs breeders cup classic where he stated in the racing post, i believe, that he couldnt see the winner beat – looks brilliant, reading the guy for the first time – you would be in awe of him but as i say having looked overall at his articles over a period of time – he can be equally wrong but that doesnt get remembered somehow. Hes entertaining certainly but some of his opinions seem off the wall – eg his argument that in compiling speed ratings – should ignor weight (I dont quite get that one) – personally I read his columns but would take his views with healthy sceptism.
In fairness to Nick Mordin, his books, especially Winning Without Thinking and Betting For A Living are excellent reading and really made me think about the way I should approach horse-racing. Also the late great EC has stated that Mordin on Time is largely responsible for making the compilation of speed ratings more accessible to the common punter.
The unfortunate issue with Nick’s website is that, every week or so, he feels compelled to put up a big name (who the rest of the racing world thinks is Pegasus) and state that in his opinion the horse should be opposed relentlessly from now on. It’s as if he has never actually seen any of these horses run, basing his opinion purely on his stopwatch.
It appears, IMO, that NM is trapped in a mindset, maybe from the fact that he must come up with a "system" every week for the Weekender, whereby he must come up with the goods every week on his website and also "the goods" must be about horses at the business end of the breed.
I mean, nobody wants to read on his website that "Horse A" won a Banded Seller at Kempton but in slow time for the class and should be opposed when it is stepped up to class6 races. It just doesn’t have the same ring to it as "KS is a slow horse"
This "pressure" to deliver week after week (and day after day in some cases) is a symptom of a general malaise in the Racing Press whereby editors assume that all punters want is the name of a horse and where and when it is running.
In reality, most punters worth their salt would probably like to see a "tipster" put up 2-3 selections each weeks with a bit more analysis and thinking behind the selection. This could also apply where a tipster doesn’t fancy something which the rest of the racing world considers a "good thing".
I have never understood speed ratings for National Hunt racing.<br>Take yesterdays easiet winner (imo) Rosses Point. <br>I marked the race up as such.<br>Who was likely the get the distance?<br>Who would definately go in the ground?<br>We had a 7 runner handicap chase over 3miles 1furlong.<br>We had 4 horses that had won their previous race.<br>Henrys Pride and Radcliffe were likely to try and make the running. Did they have the speed ratings?<br>Rosses Point would be likely to be held up on known form but by being by Roseleir would definately go in the heavy ground.<br>Did that not have the speed rating?<br>Although Paul Moloney settled the fav into last place those on betfair who may have thought he was not travelling let the price dfift to evens in running.:biggrin:
<br>Incidentally Roses Point would have surely won today at Southwell but Evan Williams thinks he needs a few days between races but is out next week at Newbury 13th Dec
Quote: from thedarkknight on 9:58 am on Dec. <br>I think that is spot on. He has taken the view that if you go "all in" with an opinion on horseracing, you will be remembered as a hero by punters on the occasions when you are right, but will be forgiven by them on the occasions when you get it wrong.
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Are you suggesting NM is really Tanya from the Morning Line????<br>
I don’t know why I feel like this…but I can’t help thinking that Kauto Star isn’t Paul Nichols Gold Cup horse…just my opinion of course.
regards
Sandpiper
Quote: from johnt4124 on 11:05 pm on Dec. 7, 2006[br]I must admit when I first read Nick Mordin – thought he was a genius – however the more i read from him, the more I realized he can be equally as stupid as brilliant. His opinions carry so much conviction that when they come off they look brilliant eg his winner in this yrs breeders cup classic where he stated in the racing post, i believe, that he couldnt see the winner beat – looks brilliant, reading the guy for the first time – you would be in awe of him but as i say having looked overall at his articles over a period of time – he can be equally wrong but that doesnt get remembered somehow. Hes entertaining certainly but some of his opinions seem off the wall – eg his argument that in compiling speed ratings – should ignor weight (I dont quite get that one) – personally I read his columns but would take his views with healthy sceptism.<br>
If he gives you 2 good ideas, or even one, to follow up in 10 articles that is two more than you will ever get in a lifetime from the majority of racing writers. Take every view expressed on its merits – if it has legs run with it – if not ditch it. He is a journalist (not a research scientist) that finds data to support his argument and ignores the rest. Sometimes he will still be right and possibly not know why and sometimes very wrong but he is not a writer that you skip over every time you read their first paragraph.
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