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Before anyone accuses me of being hypercritical I do acknowledge that having to put up a tip for every race at every meeting is a nigh on impossible gig to pull off with much success.
Having said that, I wondered how many of us has looked at a newspaper tipster’s efforts and thought they could do better themselves?I was wondering how much time such a tipster would actually put into studying each race and if they would go deep into the form book, or just have a glance at most races and put forward a token selection and then take a bit more time on a big meeting and their Nap and NB selections?
Any thoughts gratefully received along with any ideas on who is the best of the paper tip merchants and how you rate the quality of their work.
Thanks
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Newspaper tipsters need to put their selections in before odds are known Steve, therefore can not take value in to account. Virtually impossible task.
Value Is EverythingI know this much, how they
when they go through a card. Yet the might be three or four cards that day, nevermind how many are in a week, or how long it takes for them to repeat that feat again.
I suppose it’s helps to sell their papers.
The easiest means of finding out is to pit yourself against them. I found them to be pretty useless in the main even those leading the newspaper tipster competition in the RP. I regularly found more winners then they did and I have stopped backing due to being rubbish at finding winners.
Newspaper tipsters need to put their selections in before odds are known Steve, therefore can not take value in to account. Virtually impossible task.
Are they even thinking about value though?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Newspaper tipsters need to put their selections in before odds are known Steve, therefore can not take value in to account. Virtually impossible task.
That’s a crazy comment Ginge.
Surely if all you have to do is pick the winner of a race, regardless of odds, then it’s a lot easier than when you are trying to get "value".
Granted 6 or 7 races a meeting, 4 or 5 meetings a day makes that extremely tough.
I’m sure Mr Segul would love to have been able to select Sprinter for the QMCC in his Pricewise piece but doesn’t have that luxury.
Lee
Newspaper tipsters need to put their selections in before odds are known Steve, therefore can not take value in to account. Virtually impossible task.
That’s a crazy comment Ginge.
Surely if all you have to do is pick the winner of a race, regardless of odds, then it’s a lot easier than when you are trying to get "value".
Granted 6 or 7 races a meeting, 4 or 5 meetings a day makes that extremely tough.
I’m sure Mr Segul would love to have been able to select Sprinter for the QMCC in his Pricewise piece but doesn’t have that luxury.
Lee
If the purpose of a Newspaper tipster is to select the horse with THE best chance of winning Lee – then he/she’d would not do much better than tipping:
Race 1: Unnamed favourite
Race 2: Unnamed favourite
Race 3: Unnamed favourite
Race 4: Unnamed favourite
Race 5: Unnamed favourite
Race 6: Unnamed favouriteIn my experience working out my 100% books – the horse I come up with having the best chance of winning is at least 90% of the time FAVOURITE.
The trouble with tipping horses in a Newspaper column is he/she will be judged by the majority of readers by number of winners. eg If going for what they believe will be value it is highly likely they’ll go through a card without winning one – and get slated by readers and Editor. Where as in fact if going for value they may end up doing better over-all in the +/- column than tipping shorties.
If a tipster wants to be successful in the Naps competition he/she needs to find value at SP. When not knowing what odds the horses are at the start of Early Odds, let alone at SP, that’s
difficult
! I have a great admiration for Newspaper tipsters.
There’s also the added problem of SP’s of a known successful Newspaper tipster’s selections shortening purely because of his/her success (with more readers/followers and bookmaker reaction).
eg First year or two might have a strike rate of 25% with an average SP of 7/2 showing a good profit. If continuing to do exactly the same method it then goes down to an average SP of 5/2 with the same 25% SR – a loss is made.
So judged on SP’s alone the "successful" tipster will no longer be successful.Value Is EverythingThe easiest means of finding out is to pit yourself against them. I found them to be pretty useless in the main even those leading the newspaper tipster competition in the RP. I regularly found more winners then they did and I have stopped backing due to being rubbish at finding winners.
It’s not the percentage of winners that matters Woolfie. What matters is the percentage of winners compared to average priced winner.
Value Is EverythingTo answer the first part of the OP:
I am sure some/most Newspaper tipsters concentrate on a few races and just tip the horses they believe will be favourite in the rest. One tipster I talked to said he did it that way anyway.
Value Is EverythingThe easiest means of finding out is to pit yourself against them. I found them to be pretty useless in the main even those leading the newspaper tipster competition in the RP. I regularly found more winners then they did and I have stopped backing due to being rubbish at finding winners.
It’s not the percentage of winners that matters Woolfie. What matters is the percentage of winners compared to average priced winner.
In a six race meeting a tipster giving two winners to my 3 winners would lose to me, would he not?
It’s the basis of The RP competition.
The order in the Racing Post Press Challenge is based on percentage return rather than percentage winners tipped. That being said, The Favourite currently leads whether it’s judged on return or win percentage! The betting market seems to have things covered better than the tipsters.
Tipsters’ performances are a good deal better measured by return in the Naps Competition, though even in that only about half the field are in profit. I note Doug Moscrop is currently top and, from experience, an afternoon spent listening to Mr Moscrop does no harm.
Rob
The order in the Racing Post Press Challenge is based on percentage return rather than percentage winners tipped. That being said, The Favourite currently leads whether it’s judged on return or win percentage! The betting market seems to have things covered better than the tipsters.
Tipsters’ performances are a good deal better measured by return in the Naps Competition, though even in that only about half the field are in profit. I note Doug Moscrop is currently top and, from experience, an afternoon spent listening to Mr Moscrop does no harm.
Rob
There are a surprisingly high number of Napsters in profit at the moment, usually it’s about 6 or 7. Moscrop is about £56 up currently. Well done that man.
The easiest means of finding out is to pit yourself against them. I found them to be pretty useless in the main even those leading the newspaper tipster competition in the RP. I regularly found more winners then they did and I have stopped backing due to being rubbish at finding winners.
It’s not the percentage of winners that matters Woolfie. What matters is the percentage of winners compared to average priced winner.
In a six race meeting a tipster giving two winners to my 3 winners would lose to me, would he not?
It’s the basis of The RP competition.
I don’t particularly care what the rules are for any competition Woolfie, with betting it is the percentage of winners compared to average price taken that matters.
Also:
It does not really matter how anyone does in just one 6 race meeting Woolfie. But if the two strike rates in your example are maintained during the year…With level stakes:
3 winners in 6 = a 50% strike rate. If that strike rate is maintained then over any given time a punter needs better than Even Money average price to make a profit.2 winners in 6 = a 33.33% (recuring) strike rate. If that strike rate is maintained then over any given time a punter needs a better than 2/1 average price to make a profit.
Also, anyone with a record of 1 winner in 6 = a 16.67% strike rate. If that strike rate is maintained then over any given time a punter needs a better than 5/1 average price to make a profit.
I’d rather have a strike rate of 33.33% at an average price of 9/4, rather than a 50% strike rate at an average price of 10/11. But I’d also rather have a 16.67% strike rate at an average price of 7/1 rather than 33% @ 9/4 or 50% @ 10/11.
ie With your 6 race example Woolfie, with in total just 6 points staked:
If you won 3 races at average odds of 10/11:
Average return 1.91
1.91 x 3 = 5.73
5.73 returned from a total 6 points bet means a -0.27 deficit.If someone won 2 races at average odds of 9/4:
Average return 3.25
3.25 x 2 = 6.50
6.50 returned from a total of 6 points bet means +0.50 profit.If someone won just 1 of the 6 races @ 7/1:
Average return 8.00
8 x 1 = 8.00
8.00 returned from a total of 6 points bet means +2.00 profit.So 3 wins are not necessarily better than 2 wins or 1 win.
Value Is EverythingPrices vary between bookies also between exchanges and then there’s SP. Very difficult to name a winner on odds taken, too variable. The backer is looking for a good strike rate he can then decide how he bets, where he bets and how much he wants to stake. He is not concerned with value, he will make his mind up according to his assessment of his selections chances.
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