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I’m getting the vibe that Truss might not quite have surged as expected today.
Badenoch may hold up well and this might provide some indirect respite for under-pressure Mordaunt.
If Mordaunt is still second tonight Truss could be in trouble as Mordaunt will surely pick up quite a few of the Tungendhat votes going forwards.
Result at 8pm.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Sunak: 101>115
Mordaunt: 83>82
Truss: 64>71
Badenoch: 49>58
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Tugendhat: 32>31Really good poll for Sunak – he’s almost, but still not quite there.
Mordaunt down one, but after the ferocious attacks she will be relieved to still be in second place with the prospect of picking up Tungendhat votes.
Truss really hasn’t surged as she’d have hoped as Bodenoch refuses to lie down and makes solid gains.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I wonder…
Tugendhat (the One Nation Tory)’s supporters could get rid of (furthest right wing candidate) Truss in one go.
Not by backing Mordaunt in the next round, but by backing Badenoch.
Value Is EverythingWell, Mordaunt supporters will be horrified by the interview on Sky just now in which Tungendhat camp representative Anne Marie Trevelyan, for the second time today, echoed Frost’s issues with Mordaunt and spoke highly of Badenoch.
Mordaunt is closer to Tungendhat politically, but she cannot now rely on his endorsement.
Those 38 votes Mordaunt still needs suddenly look like a mountain.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"If Tungendhat’s votes split between Sunak and Badenoch then Truss is out, if Mordaunt holds onto the ones she already has.
If T’s votes split between Mordaunt and Badenoch then Truss is out.
Potentially, Truss looks in trouble unless my maths has failed me (based on my assumptions.It seems to me that Truss’s otherwise inexplicable continuing market strength (3.3) lies in the hope Badenoch goes tomorrow and on Wednesday Truss picks up a sizeable number of the 58 votes she secured today.
But she was meant to get a lot of Bravermen votes – and didn’t.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Just a random thought: given the hatchet job the Mail has done on Mordaunt, is there any chance she defects to the Lib Dems or even Labour once she’s eliminated?
I think Truss did get the Bravermen votes but lost some of her previous centre-right votes to Sunak.
Value Is Everything“Just a random thought: given the hatchet job the Mail has done on Mordaunt, is there any chance she defects to the Lib Dems or even Labour once she’s eliminated?”
You’d have to wonder.
It hasn’t just been the Mail (really vicious) it’s been within her own Party.
I’ve yet to see an endorsement from an eliminated candidate religiously followed by their voters, though.
Mordaunt really ought to be picking up a good chunk of those fellow One Nation Tungendhat 31 votes tomorrow.
But after that I just don’t see where any more votes are coming from for her – Badenoch and Truss supporters are so far to the right of her.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"tbh Glad, if the Liberal Party was still Centre then yes that would’ve been a possibility.
But with Liberals now just as left wing as Labour and – if Truss wins the leadership – Conservatives going even further to the right… And if Penny and Tom are doing well in the Public’s affections… And with the Conservative brand slipping through the Tory right’s sleaze…This could be the moment to start a new Centrist Party.
They’d have my vote.
Value Is EverythingSome might wonder how Sunak can possibly still be odds against – 2.08 – at Betfair Exchange.
We have yet to see a poll of Party Members that puts him ahead.
He might still be 2.08 when it’s down to the last two with his opponent – all agreed of him on Member polls – a shade of odds on.
Whatever happens the eventual winner is now looking unlikely to go into office with a strong mandate from their Party.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I don’t see how Starmer’s background is the issue, he’s from far more modest beginnings than Johnson and indeed many other previous PMs from both main parties. He got into a decent school on merit, not becuase daddy had loadsa money. He’s a great example to anyone aspirational surely?
The Mail will turn its attention to Rishi once Mordaunt is out. They’ll be backing Truss in the head to head.
I think Sunak gets enough Tungendhat votes tomorrow to get him over 120, I think Mordaunt will get a few, I don’t think Truss will pick up any and I think Badenoch gets one or two but goes out.
Wednesday is then massive – though still in third place, Truss will fancy getting enough of those 60 votes to beat Mordaunt.
I am struggling to see how Mordaunt gets enough votes to keep her in the top two at the death now.
Truss will then face off with Sunak with a current slender lead in the members poll but they only talk to about 1,000 of them and 200,000 will vote.
But, aside from a few Telegraph readers, they nearly ALL read The Mail!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“He got into a decent school on merit”
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Richard,
I was a pupil at Romsey (in a comprehensive) and Stroud school was only a very minor private prep school in (or rather near) Rimsey. Many felt it was no better than the two Comprehensives anyway. Some years more went on from Romsey Comp School (via 6th form collodge) to Oxbridge than they did from Stroud. Sunak went to Stroud Prep School, but then passed an exam / scholarship (ie on his own merits) for Winchester ColledgeValue Is EverythingA school is either private or it isn’t.
Always amusing to hear how many Tories trumpet the opportunities and good Ofsted reports of State schools in inner city areas while making sure their own children go private, with all the educational and networking benefits that brings.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
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