Home › Forums › Horse Racing › Neptune Collonges..Gold Cup??
- This topic has 29 replies, 17 voices, and was last updated 16 years ago by beckster.
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March 14, 2008 at 17:21 #151054
That was no gold cup trial on Saturday and there’s nothing to say Neptune hs improved……as he trired his jumping was downright dangerous.
How Jonjo ever won a race with Butler’s Cabin beats the hell out of me he was dropping himself out after 3 fences and as Jonjo says it’s the horses head that’s the problem not his fitness.
So in affect NC has really beaten 1 horse who is no great shakes.
I honestly think he’s no where near good enough to send to Cheltenham this year not even for a place. If the owner wants to send him so he can tell his friends he has a runner in the Gold Cup then that’s up to him but he would be much better heading of to try and pick up a another nice race in his own class. Some horses you just don’t run in Gold cups……..especially if there are other good races to win with them in their own class.
Compare him to say Turpin Green………Turpin Green is the sort of horse who you couldn’t trust these days to go for a race like the one in Punchestown and be sure he would run well……I’d rather put my trust in Neptune………for me TG is as well taking his chance in the Gold Cup as he has proved he can jump and stay well enough to possible get a place and be ridden from anywhere.Neptune likes to be up there and and last year he led for along way but he was there on sufference and all he did was get in the way at the end of the day.
if he tries to lay up with Denman on the second circuit, the way he jumps when tiring, he would be very likely to end up on the deck and be a danger to himself and others….hold him up and he’ll run like a cow….The owner should stop dreaming and leave the bloody horse at home and forget the Gold Cup or even picking up place money or he might just not have horse to dream about. IMO
WELL QUITE THE OPPOSITE of what alot of you thought nipper aka neptune ran the race of his life he led and set the pace ….his jumping was fantastic……….so there you go he obviously did deserve to race amongst the best boys. watch this space………..
March 14, 2008 at 18:03 #151078He did that becky he ran way better than I thought possible you were right and I was wrong
March 14, 2008 at 18:16 #151089no probs fist we just wanted him home safely.the fact that he did his personel best so far is brilliant lolam so happy xxxxxx
March 15, 2008 at 00:43 #151366Neptune and Denman made the race. The rest were very poor, imo.
With the risk of re-opening old, controversial threads, I’d say
Neptune was finishing the best ( quickening?!)
and
It sure is worth looking at P Nicholls "second strings".
Btw, my own selection was very poor, I lost overall on the race.
March 15, 2008 at 00:59 #151377Btw, my own selection was very poor, I lost overall on the race.
Nice to see a tiny shred of humility return to the forum.
March 15, 2008 at 10:22 #151449fantastic run by neptune, finished the race to some effect. totally vindicated his place in line up. "should’nt run because not only is he a danger to himself but to other horses" what a load of old shite..
March 15, 2008 at 11:39 #151473Yes fair play to neptune, but to be honest i dont think it was so much denman ran well, but more kauto ran incredibly poor, i picked denman to win purely on stats, i never back 2 gold cup winners back to back the record is only 6 horses have ever achieved this incredible feat, and we should all be thankful by seeing BEST MATE win it an amazing 3 times in our life time, the last horse to win it only 2 times was lescargot back in 71 , it took 30 years beofre BM did the biz , only 4 horses ever thats including BM have won it more than 3 times.we wont see it again boys! That aside lets get back to reality, KAUTO is a better horse or was a better horse than denman, that to me there is no doubt, i think kauto could be finished now, he look a very war weary fella coming up that hill, absolutely flat on his feet, so let keep it real about the winner here, it was a whole 7 seconds slower than kautos win last year, here is how the champ run his race.KAUTO STAR.
tracked leaders, not fluent 11th, 3rd when hit 13th, hit 4 out, soon ridden, went 2nd approaching 2 out, held when hit last, just held on for 2nd
There you go, that was NOT kauto star , it was the run of a horse that needs some serious R/R the owners had better sit down and think what they do next with kauto , because if they keep on it will surely be the end. Kauto star has had a much harder career than denman and im not sure if he is on the slide now.Stats say that unless the horse is a super star, only one gold cup is all they can take!! THE END.
March 15, 2008 at 13:43 #151520For those who rate Neptunes Collonges.
Is Neptunes Collonges value at around 23/1 for next year?
Denman is improving but is 7/4
Kauto Star I believe does not stay a truly run 3m2f. 4/1
Neptunes Collonges is also improving, was only 7 lengths behind and gaining. 23/1
Halcon needs a real bog.
Exotic might not run
Alberta’s Run was impressive in a poor Sun Alliance. Has a lot to find.
Any others?Even I am wondering…
Ginge
Value Is EverythingMarch 15, 2008 at 19:55 #151607Too far away for me to be concerned, Ginge. i still believe the "value thing" is subjective opinion rather than anything mathematical.
CR
Thanks for the comment; I don’t get paid to write hype and I see no profit in bullshitting on here.
Ironically, when I got back, I found my account on an exchange had received a much -needed boost: I’d backed Denman antepost with a very small bet, but at a reasonable price. Forgot all about it!
Sadly, though I had about six bigger bets on ED.Strawbear,
as I walked to the course I got chatting to a very knowledgable fella from Dublin. He is coming to the Festival every year for the best part of twenty years.
With a contact somewhere in the west country, he is well ahead with his punting. He advised me to think of Neptune. How I wish I had listened to him! And he was on Denman.The main difference between Denman and Neptune is that the job is much easier for Big D. Micky Fitz worked like a trojan to get and keep Neptune in it.
The rest didn’t seem to get in it at all. D was so far ahead that as the natural SLOWING ( not bullshit quickening) took place as he approached the line, the 2nd horse was allowed to close to about six lengths or whatever it was at the line.
Very good riding by Sam and Mick. The other jockeys knew they were beat before they started, imo. No stats, no proof, just the body language, imo.
Denman dominates. One day he’ll be gone too. That’s the way life is.March 15, 2008 at 21:42 #151656one thing i do agree with is mick fitz gave neptune a wonderfull ride he said before he went out he would keep the same rythnm thru out the race and wasnt bothered about the others, evean when denman went past him he just kept to his plan……the one thing he did say when he came back was it was a shame neptune wasn’t a bit bigger as he’d be a super star.. one thing it does show is that he’s a good jumper when he has a good jockey on his back…………
March 16, 2008 at 16:28 #151838Thanks, beckster.
Yes, Denman looked a much bigger and stronger animal to me. Perhaps, there’s an age factor that comes into it?
March 16, 2008 at 18:37 #151882Don’t think Mick Fitz did anything Liam Heard couldn’t have done.
Another faux pax from Mr Hales, imo.
March 16, 2008 at 18:51 #151890no but surely its up to the owner to a certain exstent who rides there horse……….???liam is a nichols jocky n would have thought he would have to do exactly as told.. nipper was planned to set the pace but mick was also told to be competative to an exstent…………………of which he was lol
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