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Not much between the runners here. Sea of Grace has moved from John Oxx stable (which must be a huge blow to his already struggling team) but as Steve has pointed out on many occasions, the yard she has moved to, William Haggas, has not got a good record at all in big races. Amongst the top trainers he strikes me as a flat-track bully who can mop up the lesser races but doesn’t have much impact in the very best contests.
She’s also a negative in the market.
I don’t think there’s much between Roly Poly and Brave Anna, and the Ian Balding filly will surely run well but the one I like is PAMPLEMOUSSE, who is related to some good horses. The only concern is will she transfer her form from the all weather to a turf surface.
If she does I reckon she’ll take all the beating and rates a confident selection. Fabre has also started well this season and has been dominating the classic trials in his own country which adds to the confidence.
Also double her up with WHITECLIFFSOFDOVER in the free handicap
I think Sea Of Grace should be one to progress this season.
Haggas has been fairly negative sounding. He states that she won’t be at her best until going further.
I have my doubts if the O’Brien fillies will be fully wound up. Brave Anna was hit and miss last season, while I don’t tend to follow 2yo’s who went to the Breeders Cup. Roly Poly flopped at the Breeder’s Cup and while Timeform feel we can ignore that run, I don’t like what it could potentially do for filly this year. I am passing on the two from Ballydoyle, who are both by War Front.
Poet’s Vanity landed two races last year and while we could have expected her first win to be unlikely to work out because she won by 10 lengths, it is disappointing that nothing has given a real lift to the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes that she won.
Pamplemousse has been the one for money but it’s hard to tell what she beat on her debut. This seems soon enough to be stepping up but she may be classy enough. With the travel, the track and the new surface there are enough reasons to be worried about taking 3/1 or thereabouts. It’s a bit of a leap of faith for me.
I have backed Sea Of Grace for this race but am less confident about the Guineas. Has Haggas brought her forward since her move from John Oxx? I just wish William Haggas would sound confident now and again. On balance I had to go with my feeling that Sea Of Grace was going to make improvement from 2 to 3 and Haggas is 4/10 the past fortnight, so that 40% strike rate is encouraging, even if it has been at the gristle end of the quality in the main. As I have said, it’s one thing getting expensive horses to train but then a question of whether you wish to give out praise to the trainer for winning races at Bath, Lingfield and Wolverhampton (for example)
In a tight one, I just favoured the ex Oxx filly.
Ex Oxx? Sounds like a bloody Oil Company
In the Free Handicap I find it a bit hard to call. It’s another O’Brien horse who may need the race and he’s another War Front.
It’s not really much of a Handicap. The top three all carry the same weight and only 8 lbs covers the field. Seven Heavens needs to bounce back but may have a chance if the hood settles him. Sir Dancealot looks the most solid in some respects. The mile seemed too far in the Racing Post Trophy and he has some solid looking form at 7F.
In the end I couldn’t find a value angle. If I could get Sir Dancealot at 4/1 with the exact 8 runners and 1/4 odds place that Bet365 are offering, that would probably be my bet. However they only go 10/3 for now and that pays a loss overall for a place.
Later on the card the maiden race sees Natavia one of the well bred fillies taking part. She is by Nathaniel and cost 600,000 Guineas. Roger Charlton has her in the Oaks. New man on the scene George Peckham has a million Euro Galileo filly Saniyaat (Entered in Irish 1000 Guineas) in the mix, while John Gosden sends Dancing Breeze to the maiden he won with Swiss Range last year. Hannon, Noseda, Stoute and Charlie Appleby are also represented in an interesting race. Godolphin’s Glittering Jewel is 4/1 Fav early in a race surely best watched for future reference.
Good luck wherever your cash goes.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
That maiden race 4.45 has G. Mosse riding Tranquil Sea who could be quite smart. Also he has a Frankel out this week called La Figlia
Never really back horses FTO but will be watching these two with an eye to the future.
Poet’s Vanity seems a fair choice. The trainer sent out a ready winner yesterday and the filly won over C&D to round off her 2yo career in good fashion. She has the scope to build on that. Roly Poly is the class horse in the race who I’d fancy to turn tables on Brave Anna and at 9/2 isn’t a terrible bet either.
If roly poly can see out the 7 then she should be good enough, but not certain she will
Not sure if im so keen on sea of grace back at 7 either, i think it will be on the sharp side
Pamplemousse could be anything and i always avoid taking short prices on “anything”
Will take a play on kilmah at the bigger prices
changing the subject somewhat but does anyone on here make a profit from this gambling lark?
or maybe I’ll do a separate thread.
sometimes it feels like you’re a hamster climbing up a wheel
changing the subject somewhat but does anyone on here make a profit from this gambling lark?
or maybe I’ll do a separate thread.
sometimes it feels like you’re a hamster climbing up a wheel
day to day gambling youll never really make a profit youll have highs and lows.
Youv more chance of making a profit on the exchanges, but it is still difficult and you often have to be able to outlay a decent amount at certain times to bring alot smaller amounts back in
Well that’s a good start with WHITECLIFFSOFDOVER winning what turned out to be a very uncompetitive free handicap.
Lots of headgear and pulling in behind and the opposition looked like twicers.
so much for war fronts not training on
Well that’s a good start with WHITECLIFFSOFDOVER winning what turned out to be a very uncompetitive free handicap.
Lots of headgear and pulling in behind and the opposition looked like twicers.
so much for war fronts not training on
Larchmont Lad beat Whitecliffsofdover so that’s a nice compliment to the Hannon colt.
Surprised to see Seven Heavens so short there.
Whitecliffsofdover simply looked the fastest horse by a fair way today. Jason Weaver said Sir Dancealot looked as fat as he does after Christmas. Not much encouragement for Swiss Storm, who I feel is a ridiculous price for the 2000 Guineas. I doubt Aidan is cacking himself at the thought of the Elsworth maiden winner taking on his Dewhurst Champion.
ITV tried to make the case for the Free Handicap having “Pedigree” for the Classics by quoting the winner from 1959
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well Gosden did his best to put off anyone backing the winner. Thought Poet’s was going to win but probably paid to price for being too keen early on.
Yes didn’t like the comments of Gosden there.
He’s the sort of guy who when he’s not confident on one you should lump on.
Actually I was very tempted to at least put a saver on that given the jockey and trainers great record in the race- I think frankie had been on the last three winners.
Didn’t look a great renewal though. Sea of grace clearly hated the ground. Was rather surprised to hear Hayley Turner just before the race say how great she looked in the paddock, when she clearly had sweated up on her neck. Maybe Haggas has ruined another good horse?
Well a few bubbles popped there.
Sea Of Grace did everything wrong, she didn’t settle, stumbled and almost came down. She made some headway but her run petered out. There wasn’t a lot there to suggest that Haggas’s feeling that she needed further was correct. No Guineas for Sea Of Grace. Knowing Haggas he’ll be looking for a penalty kick conditions race on the all weather.
Roly Poly had early speed but was quickly beaten. I say it every year about going to the Breeders Cup and raxing a 2yo horse. Sprinting will surely be her game. Brave Anna was never sighted. A little early to herald the training on War Fronts perhaps
I read somewhere this morning that Ballydoyle didn’t seem to have much confidence in Rhododendron but surely she can’t be as poor as those two fillies today.
Pamplemousse ran a totally different race today. After leading on the all weather in France she came from further back today and was a never nearer 4th. Surely she won’t run in the 1000 Guineas in this country. It looked a big ask so soon after her maiden win and I blame Liz Price myself.
I wouldn’t have picked the Gosden filly with a free bet, so well done anyone who had her. She is as low as 9/1 for the 1000 Guineas but that’s a “No thank you” from me.
If Pascal Bary was watching this race he should be aware that there is a 1000 Guineas race at Newmarket with his horse’s name written all over it. Senga would be my pick if he could only be arsed to make the journey over. Like some of their wines though, the French trainers don’t seem to travel well and he will probably fart about at home instead.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The quote was that Ballydoyle may not have as much confidence in Rhododendron as they do in Churchill, but they have huge faith in Churchill, so that still leaves room for a lot of faith in Rhododendron.
They only run Guineas horses in trials if they need the run (and sometimes they get that run in the Guineas if there is a better fancied stablemate!), and Roly Poly really needed the run today, she was very ring rusty. She ran on well at the end, so looks like she will get the mile. Her dam, Misty For Me was beaten 18L in the 1000G on her seasonal debut (stablemate Together finished second) and she went on to win the Irish 1000G the next time out. I imagine that Roly Poly will run in the French Guineas.
Brave Anna will probably drop back down to 6f.It looks like the fillies of O’Briens are behind the colts on that evidence. Not convinced about that fillies mile form.
Actually the one I like in the guineas is the owen burrows horse.
Sea of Grace looked a picture in the paddock but she is a very delicate looking filly with not much substance to her frame and she just wasn’t up to the opposition today. I would say she needs more time, definitely not a Guineas type
Referring back to Sir Dancealot, yes he was very fat and Hayley Turner who was doing a paddock inspection actually commented to his handler about it, he quipped back to her smiling ‘it’s all muscle’
I can also add that Roly Poly had obviously been sharing Christmas dinner with him Steve
Checking the Racing Post newspaper tips after racing (never follow them) they did not tip one winner today
Hope I have a better day tomorrow a string of places but no winners.
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
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