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This looks a cracker with the big three at the head of the Guineas market with Ravens Pass all set to clash as well as a very interesting wide-margin maiden winner in Famous Name.
I am pretty happy to lay Myboycharlie at around 5/2. He has more to prove than the other 2 with regards ground/trip and there’s nothing to think as of yet that he’s any better prospect than either of them.
I agree, what a great race in prospect. It is a shame that Hatta Fort didn’t turn up as I think he is a serious horse. Rio De La Plata has shown promise but I think he has to prove himself at this level as the race at Goodwood doesn’t look great on paper. Myboycharlie is probably more of a two year old type and as you say dj, he has to prove himself at the trip. New Approach has looked really good on all three starts but, I do feel people are thinking he is exactly the same as Teofilo when he isn’t, he has just taken an identical path. However he should go close. As you say, Famous Name is really interesting as he is bred to do better next year and the yards juveniles are going really well so he perhaps could be the value though you would be a little disappointed if he won as the others are the supposed cream of the crop at the moment.
Of the three, I’d be happier laying New Approach (though I won’t unless he shortens to 7/4 or less). I feel that his price owes more to the deja vu feeling of another Teofilo than to the substance of his form. I’m slightly worried about Myboycharlie’s stamina but think his form is the best of the three. Rio de la Plata could be anything.
In short, a race to watch unless the odds skew considerably from those available tonight.As New Approach, Myboycharlie and Famous Name (Tanya Stevenson’s "best two year old I’ve seen so far") best performances have all been on soft ground, I think Rio De La Plata could be the one – though, it is, as I said earlier, a hard one to call. Definitely one for all racing fans to savour whatever the outcome.
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The race proved to be a bit of a disappointment for me, as Frankie rode an horrific race aboard Rio De La Plata and Fallon fared little better on Myboycharlie.
The winner didn’t look to be anything out of the ordinary, although he clearly is fairly smart, and I thought the comparisons to Teofilo were laughable (other than that they hae both followed the same path as juveniles).
Why is it every race is seemingly won and lost by jockeys and jockey error? I’ve seen a couple of people criticise the ride on Rio De La Plata but unfairly in my book.
Dettori isn’t my favourite jockey by a long way but he got his horse out in plenty of time and in a good position to chellenge he just didn’t have the legs to get to the winner who is a relentless gallopper.
Its worth remembering that horses cannot go flat out for the whole race, Dettori produced his horse well enough he just couldn’t keep going as well as the winner who looks granite like and comparrisons with Teofilo are well justified he looks at least as good at the same stage of their careers. I think the hype and the fact that Teofilo was never tested or beaten as a three year old leads people hanging onto the presumption that he was / would’ve been some kind of wonder horse. That we’ll never know but his two year old form compared to todays winners is better how at the same stage of their respective careers?
Both Rio De La Plata and Myboycharlie were beaten on merit IMO.
Those who wish to be critical of the ride on Rio de La Plata can also point to the fact that the time was not much cop – that of a listed horse rather than a top-notch Group 1 performer.
As New Approach was the one making the running and a number of horses were going freely early on I suspect it wasn’t a case of the winner being the one deserving of extra credit. Rio de La Plata made up about 3 lengths on him from 3f out.
Given that a number of horses were going freely, you wouldn’t expect the time to be ‘much cop’ I’d have thought. I don’t think you can knock the winner too much and he clearly deserves to be at the top of the Guineas betting.
Sometimes think that too much credit is given to horses seemingly gaining late against front runners and too much knocking of jockeys in these circumstances
Given that a number of horses were going freely, you wouldn’t expect the time to be ‘much cop’ I’d have thought
Er, you seem to have missed the point.
It’s the pace of the race that the overall time hints at and not the overall time itself that is pertinent in this instance.
A slowish time does not mean that the early pace was on the slow side. But a slowish time in a race where a number of horses were going freely very much suggests that.
The point is that any evaluation of the efforts of the horses in the National Stakes – not least that of Rio de La Plata – needs to be viewed in that context.
The idea that the ride on Rio de La Plata was above reproach would have been much more difficult to dispute if the time had been good.
I think the hype and the fact that Teofilo was never tested or beaten as a three year old leads people hanging onto the presumption that he was / would’ve been some kind of wonder horse.
Teofilo was a very good 2YO but not brilliant.
Celtic Swing was a brilliant 2YO.
Viewing the race in the cold light of day, I reckon that New Approach was a worthy winner. Rio De La Plata had every chance of pegging back the winner, but Jim Bolger’s colt won quite cosily in the end – and would arguably have won in any case – irrespective of the early pace.
Bolger has wisely chosen to side step the Dewhurst – bearing in mind the hard race Teofilo had last season and the fact that Raven’s Pass would have been in direct opposition. May be wrong, but that’s my thoughts.
There is a remakable (almost uncanny) similarity between New Approach and Teofilo – both in looks and ability. New Approach could be a bit special. Sadly, we never got to find find out whether Teofilo was or not. Should be some race if he and Raven’s Pass (a shoe -in for the Dewhurst in my opinion) were to cross swords in next year’s 2,000 guineas,
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Sometimes think that too much credit is given to horses seemingly gaining late against front runners and too much knocking of jockeys in these circumstances
Clive, spot on here.. To my eyes, if they’d caught him, which they weren’t really doing he would have pulled out more. Reminds me a lot of teofilo in his racing style althuogh I suspect this will be down to Bolger’s training methods which with the two aforementioned horses seems to be very similar to M Johnston.
I was surprised how easily he won and given that Myboycharlie (Who I backed) picked up and sauntered past a G2 winner last time I think New Approach was simply too fast for them.
True Aragorn. I am not watching his runners week in week out, but there is a pattern there. But i also wonder if they are perhaps (like Johnstons maybe) a little bit hard trained? Could be argued that Teofilio had a race too many last year (easy with hindsight) and F Beo is seemingly not the same after those three guineas runs
Open minded, but wonder what thoughts are on that
As for the race, i think theres often a temptation to overanalyse race results in a desire to come to conclusions other than that "the best horse won". Im not convinced that unless the pace variations are extreme (headless chicken or complete crawl) many results would necessarily be that different
One thought on Frankies riding…were he and Fallon tracking each other too closely?
I was impressed by the winner- I wouldn’t back any of those behind him to reverse the form, but I would worry slightly about his ability to run up to form on the front end in a more truly-run contest like a Guineas. I doubt we’ll see him again this year, in fact it’s likely to be next stop Newmarket. I could see him just getting done for toe in a Guineas, being very short for the Derby and not quite getting the trip there!
I was impressed by the winner- I wouldn’t back any of those behind him to reverse the form, but I would worry slightly about his ability to run up to form on the front end in a more truly-run contest like a Guineas.
Jim Bolger said that New Approach will not make the running in next year’s 2,000 Guineas, and will be settled in behind instead.
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One thing we do know for sure is, as many posters have already said, the finishing time for the race wasn’t outstanding. If this was a result of Manning being allowed a soft lead which allowed him to wind the pace up from the front, which obviously means that Dettori rode an ill-judged race, then I couldn’t say with confidence that New Approach would beat Rio De LA Plata again because the Godolphin horse must have ran a huge race to finish where he did after being positioned so badly.
Obviously the above is only one of a few models of what could have happened – if only fractional times were available – but it is, nevertheless, a very real possibility.
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