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Nassalam started his chasing career in a Handicap at Ascot back in October 2021. He won that race off 140 and ran a further eleven times over fences before today’s Welsh National. After winning another three starts and running into two 2nds and a 3rd place he was only raised 5 lbs for all of his efforts. I think his handicap mark was very lenient. Not since he won by 34 lengths today, but he ran with credit against Ultima contenders in the past and you would expect him to be rather a 150 horse than a 145.
Any thoughts?
Immensely likeable horse – interested to see what his revised mark is next week.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Gary Moore’s unforgettable hour is something worth remembering. All three of them were very convincing.
You just want to see how he comes out of the race , Welsh nationals can leave a mark however they should be looking at graded races next
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
The owners don’t sound too keen (but that’s been known to change) but, depending on how much he goes up for this, the Grand National could be an option.
He’s already jumped round the GN circuit (in the Grand Sefton) and in this era of unpredictable weather it’s not impossible he might get his ground at Aintree in April.
I’m now sure he would stay.
He effectively raced off 145 with his 4lb penalty yesterday, he will get a hike for that (10lb-18lb would be my spread) but, if it’s at the lower end of that scale, leaving him on 155, I think he’d still be on a workable mark, granted his ground conditions.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Worth noting he was rated 149 before the Welsh National just got in lighter because of it being an early closer. I think he’ll be hard to place whatever they do to his handicap mark, not many handled the conditions at Chepstow yesterday and it didnt look a strong renewal with several out of the weights and several eligible for veterans races including the 2nd, lovely horse that he is.
He’s a late foal so would technically still be a 6 year old were he to run in the National next year.I can’t get my head round the thought of such young horses running in and winning the race! I don’t think his owners are keen for him to run though.
Agree moehat on the age and Grand National. We know Noble Yeats bucked the statistics trend when winning at only 7
But it’s a hard race for young horses,if where me id wait a year, then if national came up on groumd like when Red Marauder won on go for it
At the end of the day the decision is down to his ownersVf x
Traditionally, National Hunt horses were bred to mature more slowly. Nowadays, horses mature more quickly, so I’m not sure that traditional thinking still applies.
Yeah just been reading that Ex- RubyLight in racing post.
Possible target Cheltenham Gold Cup and Grand NationalVf x
No chance in a Gold Cup – even if he gets very soft condition, we all know that will also suit a certain Gold Cup favourite just as much.
The Chepstow race was run in appalling conditions (only 5 out of 19 starters actually finished) that only he seemed to cope with so that form at best is simply unreliable and he is only 1 from 6 on ground quicker than soft.
Being raised to 161 off the back of that performance is quite frankly a joke and thinking he is now a Gold Cup horse is even moreso, when it was the same horse that finished 34L behind Corach Rambler off 144 in the Ultima at the Festival last season, then followed that up by being beaten 19L by Midnight River who himself was beaten 23L in this seasons Charlie Hall Chase…….madness.
He really should should be aimed at all the extreme stamina test race like those of a National (any version, the Midlands one in particular is often run on equally desperate ground), the Eider and Bet365 Gold Cup.
Plus if they do decide to run him in the Gold Cup then a tough race there will greatly hinder any chance he has to win the National.
Disagree with you LD.
Galopin Des Champs is not proven on bottomless ground… And even if GDC did act on bottomless ground he’d be far from a certainty to stay the gold cup trip under such stamina sapping conditions. Even so, of course the Mullins horse would still be a lot shorter than the Moore’s. But if the ground came up testing then – as a progressive stayer – Nassalam would be worth his place in the field.
As far as Nassalam career is concerned, the Ultima where he finished a long way behind Corach Rambler was over a shorter trip (3m1f) than Chepstow’s 3m6f and the “soft” at Cheltenham – not “heavy” or what you yourself called “appalling conditions”. The race at Aintree in April was also nowhere near the test of stamina of the Welsh National either. Aintree is a pretty easy track. Sharpish, especially on what was only “good-soft” compared to Chepstow’s undulations on heavy.
The Ultima and other races over inadequate trips simply do not come into it when assessing Nassalam’s handicap mark, it is obvious he’s since improved for the increased test of stamina. Nassalam’s only defeat this year – over Aintree’s Grand National fences came at the far shorter race distance of 2m5f; in which he was according to the Racing Post “nearest finish”. Suggesting he’d improve over further and he did. All his races prior to the Ultima were at 2m4f.
Nassalam is still totally unexposed in races where stamina is at an absolute premium. True, there is a good chance he will never reproduce the form away from heavy ground but he does need to be handicapped on that heavy going… otherwise he’d be a good thing when encountering the surface again. A length under extreme stamina conditions is not worth as many lbs as on “better” goings, but that is all allowed for in this rating. I’d say he is probably worth at least 161. The handicapper even had to lower the rating of every other finisher in the Welsh Grand National in order to up Nassalam’s OR by as little as 161.
The Gold Cup on say good-soft, taking on the best horses off level weights… would imo be an easier prep race for the Grand National than the Midlands Grand national off his revised 161. Unlike many of his stable companions, I doubt we’d ever see this horse in the Bet365, or if we did will probably be worth opposing as imo he’s best left handed.
Value Is EverythingGDC has won on ‘very soft’ in France and the time for the Savills Chase on officially soft was 46.5 seconds slow even taking into account that Conflated who made the running wasn’t hanging around. Nassalam’s Chepstow time was 50.3 seconds slow but we know how real deep Chepstow can get and it is very rare for Cheltenham in March to get heavy let alone to Chepstow like conditions.
My point being that to be at his best he has now shown that he needs an extreme test on very deep ground that will inconvenience his rivals far more than it would him and I simply think that even 3m2f on soft at Cheltenham would not be sufficient enough of a test for him….look at Noble Yeats in last year’s Gold Cup, who was hopelessly outpaced from a long way out before running on when it was all too late to nab 4th some 15L behind GDC, you could argue that race took the edge off of him for Aintree.
You yourself say ‘the Ultima and other races over inadequate trips’ but the Ultima is just 1F shorter than the Gold Cup trip itself and (whilst in retropsect I do totally agree that the Midlands on deep ground would not be a good prep for the National itself) the likely hood of him being taken off his feet in a strongly run Gold Cup (which it will be) could result in jumping errors and heaven forbid a potential fall.
Interestingly enough the year Noble Yeats won the National his previous run was in the Ultima when down the field to Corach Rambler so maybe that should be the race he runs in at Cheltenham even though he would likely be top weight?
However, if they really are serious about looking at the Gold Cup option maybe they need to go to next month’s Denman Chase as a stepping stone to test the waters to see whether he is up to Gold Cup standard.
There is also the option of Grand National trial at Haydock, which I believe is almost 3m5f towards at latter end of February…..although I guess he will have to carry top weight so that may be a non starter, maybe they can find a 3m hurdle for him somewhere
In any case I still think the longer distance staying chases will be his bag and not the Gold Cup.
I reckon his best chance of a big race win would be the Grand Steeple, the French Gold Cup at Auteuil in mid May. Run over 3M 6F and 100% certainty that the ground won’t be good to firm, but crucially, it dosn’t take as much winning as our Gold Cup. Which I reckon is because the vast majority of French chasers never race beyond 2M 6F.
In fact the 2023 winner was having his first ever attempt beyond that trip and is just an ordinary Group2/3 horse.
Of course there is Il Est Francais being lined up for the race this year! Still second prize is about £170k.
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